<p><strong>特斯拉</strong>(TSLA -3.46%) 是 2024 年最大的驚喜之一。</p>
<p>由於公司報告了令人失望的季度業績，包括增長乏力和利潤下滑，股票在大部分時間裏落後於市場。此外，電動車銷售增長放緩，隨着早期用户已經購買了電動車，整個行業的勢頭似乎已經趨於平穩，而電動車股票在今年普遍表現不佳。</p>
<p>截至 10 月 23 日，股票年初至今下跌了 14%，遠遠落後於 <strong>標準普爾 500 指數</strong>，後者上漲了 21%，如下圖所示。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/eef406cb486bf0726aeab79e5483f7b9.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/eef406cb486bf0726aeab79e5483f7b9.png"/></p>
<p>TSLA 數據來源於 YCharts</p>
<p>然而，從那時起，股票表現火爆。公司首先通過其第三季度財報給投資者留下了深刻印象，顯示出強勁的利潤增長，首席執行官埃隆·馬斯克預測，2025 年車輛生產將增長 20% 至 30%，相比 2024 年的平穩增長有了顯著改善。</p>
<p>隨後，特斯拉在選舉後飆升，因為馬斯克對特朗普的重大押注似乎得到了回報。投資者似乎對特朗普政府將使特斯拉推出其新款 Cybercab（也稱為機器人出租車）感到樂觀。特斯拉還計劃在 2025 年上半年推出一款價格低於 30,000 美元的 Model Q。正如您從下圖中看到的，截至 12 月 17 日，股票在不到兩個月的時間裏上漲了驚人的 125%。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/74102fdd0146fde3c8161d6b2a7b1bad.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/74102fdd0146fde3c8161d6b2a7b1bad.png"/></p>
<p>TSLA 數據來源於 YCharts</p>
<p>正如您所見，特斯拉在新的一年中帶來了強勁的勢頭。那麼，股票會繼續上漲，還是註定要回調？以下是一些需要關注的事項。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDEzNjkvdGVzbGEtbW9kZWwtMy5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDEzNjkvdGVzbGEtbW9kZWwtMy5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：特斯拉。</p>
<h2>高期望值已被充分反映</h2>
<p>特斯拉股票在最近的反彈之前已經很昂貴，但其估值現在似乎與基礎業務完全脱節。該股票的市盈率為 200，遠高於其任何 “七大奇蹟” 同行，後者的市盈率均未超過 51。</p>
<p>在這個價格下，特斯拉作為一家汽車製造商很難滿足期望，因為公司每年已經銷售近 200 萬輛汽車。這些高期望似乎是基於馬斯克對公司自動駕駛汽車業務的預測，他表示，如果其機器人出租車市場成功，特斯拉將成為世界上最有價值的公司。考慮到 Cybercab 尚未投入生產，並且公司面臨監管障礙，馬斯克設想的無人駕駛汽車取代 <strong>優步</strong> 並不是必然的。</p>
<h2>特朗普到底能提供多少幫助？</h2>
<p>自選舉以來，特斯拉股票幾乎翻倍，馬斯克與特朗普的親密關係是主要原因之一。馬斯克在特朗普的競選中花費了數億美金，並多次與他同台亮相。他還被任命為新成立的政府效率部的負責人，負責查找政府浪費。</p>
<p>然而，馬斯克和特朗普在某些方面並不太合拍。首先，特朗普以支持化石燃料而非綠色能源而聞名，他的政府已經表示將取消 7500 美元的電動車税收抵免。馬斯克對此舉的影響進行了淡化，稱這對電動車初創企業的影響遠大於特斯拉，但這可能會將一些電動車的需求轉回傳統燃油車，尤其是對價格敏感的消費者，這對特斯拉來説是個負面因素。</p>
<p>電動車製造商的真正機會在於自動駕駛，而特朗普政府也表示將放寬對自動駕駛汽車的規定，並建立國家標準，使特斯拉更容易推出沒有方向盤的 Cybercab。</p>
<p>然而，安全性將是任何自動駕駛汽車的最終考驗，如果這些汽車在尚未準備好的情況下上路，可能會對特斯拉和特朗普政府造成災難。</p>
<h2>特斯拉在 2025 年值得購買嗎？</h2>
<p>特斯拉是一個相對不可預測的公司，其股票 notoriously 波動性很大。</p>
<p>然而，以當前的估值進入新的一年，特斯拉的股票基本上是以完美的價格定價。自動駕駛不太可能產生影響，因為公司並不打算在 2026 年生產 Cybercab，儘管進展的跡象可能會給股票帶來提振。</p>
<p>相反，投資者的關注將集中在核心業務、Model Q 車輛以及特朗普政府是否能夠在實質上幫助公司上。</p>
<p>考慮到特斯拉的市值已經達到 1.5 萬億美元，市盈率為 200，儘管當前投資者熱情高漲，但該股票在明年更可能表現不佳。</p>

特斯拉

2 倍做多特斯拉 ETF - Direxion

<p>特斯拉的股票在 2024 年經歷了顯著的波動，最初表現不及大盤，但在強勁的第三季度財報和對 2025 年樂觀的生產預測後，股價飆升了 125%。然而，股票的高估值，市盈率達到 200，引發了對能否滿足預期的擔憂。特朗普政府對特斯拉未來的潛在影響，特別是在自動駕駛汽車和電動車税收抵免方面，仍然不確定。投資者應保持謹慎，因為該股票可能已經被定價為完美，2025 年面臨挑戰</p>

<p><strong>Tesla</strong>(TSLA -3.46%) has been one of the biggest surprises of 2024.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>特斯拉</strong>(TSLA -3.46%) 是 2024 年最大的驚喜之一。</p>
</div><p>The stock lagged the market for much of the year as the company reported disappointing quarterly results, including sluggish growth and falling profits. Additionally, electric vehicle sales growth has slowed as momentum in the sector seems to be plateauing now that early adopters have already purchased an EV, and EV stocks have struggled in general this year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由於公司報告了令人失望的季度業績，包括增長乏力和利潤下滑，股票在大部分時間裏落後於市場。此外，電動車銷售增長放緩，隨着早期用户已經購買了電動車，整個行業的勢頭似乎已經趨於平穩，而電動車股票在今年普遍表現不佳。</p>
</div><p>Through Oct. 23, the stock was down 14% year to date, underperforming the <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong>, which had gained 21%, by a wide margin, as the chart below shows.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至 10 月 23 日，股票年初至今下跌了 14%，遠遠落後於 <strong>標準普爾 500 指數</strong>，後者上漲了 21%，如下圖所示。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/eef406cb486bf0726aeab79e5483f7b9.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/eef406cb486bf0726aeab79e5483f7b9.png"/></p>
<p>TSLA data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>TSLA 數據來源於 YCharts</p>
</div><p>However, since then, the stock has been on fire. The company first impressed investors with its third-quarter earnings report, which showed strong profit growth, and CEO Elon Musk predicted that vehicle production would increase by 20% to 30% in 2025, a significant improvement from flat growth in 2024.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，從那時起，股票表現火爆。公司首先通過其第三季度財報給投資者留下了深刻印象，顯示出強勁的利潤增長，首席執行官埃隆·馬斯克預測，2025 年車輛生產將增長 20% 至 30%，相比 2024 年的平穩增長有了顯著改善。</p>
</div><p>Then, Tesla soared following the election as Musk's big bet on Trump seemed to pay off. Investors seem to be hopeful that the Trump administration will make it easier for Tesla to roll out its new Cybercab, also known as the robotaxi. Tesla is also planning to launch an affordably priced Model Q at under $30,000 in the first half of 2025. As you can see from the chart below, through Dec. 17, the stock is up a whopping 125% in less than two months.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>隨後，特斯拉在選舉後飆升，因為馬斯克對特朗普的重大押注似乎得到了回報。投資者似乎對特朗普政府將使特斯拉推出其新款 Cybercab（也稱為機器人出租車）感到樂觀。特斯拉還計劃在 2025 年上半年推出一款價格低於 30,000 美元的 Model Q。正如您從下圖中看到的，截至 12 月 17 日，股票在不到兩個月的時間裏上漲了驚人的 125%。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/74102fdd0146fde3c8161d6b2a7b1bad.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/74102fdd0146fde3c8161d6b2a7b1bad.png"/></p>
<p>TSLA data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>TSLA 數據來源於 YCharts</p>
</div><p>As you can see, Tesla is bringing a lot of momentum in the new year. So, will the stock keep gaining, or is it destined for a pullback? Here are a few things to watch.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>正如您所見，特斯拉在新的一年中帶來了強勁的勢頭。那麼，股票會繼續上漲，還是註定要回調？以下是一些需要關注的事項。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDEzNjkvdGVzbGEtbW9kZWwtMy5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F801369%2Ftesla-model-3.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Tesla.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：特斯拉。</p>
</div><h2>High expectations are now baked in</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>高期望值已被充分反映</h2>
</div><p>Tesla stock was already expensive before its recent rally, but its valuation now seems to have fully detached from the underlying business. The stock trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 200, which is much more expensive than any of its &#34;Magnificent Seven&#34; peers, none of which trade at a P/E above 51.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特斯拉股票在最近的反彈之前已經很昂貴，但其估值現在似乎與基礎業務完全脱節。該股票的市盈率為 200，遠高於其任何 “七大奇蹟” 同行，後者的市盈率均未超過 51。</p>
</div><p>At that price, it will be difficult for Tesla to meet expectations as a carmaker alone, as the company is already selling nearly 2 million vehicles a year. Those high expectations seemed to be based on Musk's own predictions for the company's autonomous vehicle business, as he said that Tesla would be the most valuable company in the world if its robotaxi marketplace takes off. Considering that the Cybercab hasn't yet gone into production and that there are regulatory hurdles for the company to overcome, it's certainly not guaranteed that its driverless cars will replace <strong>Uber</strong> as Musk has envisioned.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在這個價格下，特斯拉作為一家汽車製造商很難滿足期望，因為公司每年已經銷售近 200 萬輛汽車。這些高期望似乎是基於馬斯克對公司自動駕駛汽車業務的預測，他表示，如果其機器人出租車市場成功，特斯拉將成為世界上最有價值的公司。考慮到 Cybercab 尚未投入生產，並且公司面臨監管障礙，馬斯克設想的無人駕駛汽車取代 <strong>優步</strong> 並不是必然的。</p>
</div><h2>How much help will Trump really be?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>特朗普到底能提供多少幫助？</h2>
</div><p>Tesla stock has nearly doubled since the election, and Musk's chummy relationship with Trump is a major reason why. Musk spent hundreds of millions of dollars on Trump's campaign and appeared on stage with him several times. He's also been tapped to run the new Department of Government Efficiency, in charge of ferreting out government waste.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自選舉以來，特斯拉股票幾乎翻倍，馬斯克與特朗普的親密關係是主要原因之一。馬斯克在特朗普的競選中花費了數億美金，並多次與他同台亮相。他還被任命為新成立的政府效率部的負責人，負責查找政府浪費。</p>
</div><p>However, Musk and Trump are unlikely bedfellows in some ways. First, Trump is known to support fossil fuels over green energy, and his administration has already indicated that it will eliminate the $7,500 EV tax credit. Musk has downplayed the effect of such a move, saying it's much worse for EV start-ups than it is for Tesla, but it's likely to shift some demand for EVs back to traditional combustion vehicles for price-sensitive consumers, which would be a negative for Tesla.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，馬斯克和特朗普在某些方面並不太合拍。首先，特朗普以支持化石燃料而非綠色能源而聞名，他的政府已經表示將取消 7500 美元的電動車税收抵免。馬斯克對此舉的影響進行了淡化，稱這對電動車初創企業的影響遠大於特斯拉，但這可能會將一些電動車的需求轉回傳統燃油車，尤其是對價格敏感的消費者，這對特斯拉來説是個負面因素。</p>
</div><p>The real opportunity for the EV maker is in autonomy, and the Trump administration has also indicated that it would ease rules around self-driving cars and establish a national standard, making it easier for Tesla to roll out the Cybercab, which does not have a steering wheel.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>電動車製造商的真正機會在於自動駕駛，而特朗普政府也表示將放寬對自動駕駛汽車的規定，並建立國家標準，使特斯拉更容易推出沒有方向盤的 Cybercab。</p>
</div><p>However, safety will be the ultimate test of any autonomous vehicle, and if the cars are allowed on the road before they're ready, it could be a disaster for both Tesla and the Trump administration.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，安全性將是任何自動駕駛汽車的最終考驗，如果這些汽車在尚未準備好的情況下上路，可能會對特斯拉和特朗普政府造成災難。</p>
</div><h2>Is Tesla a buy for 2025?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>特斯拉在 2025 年值得購買嗎？</h2>
</div><p>Tesla is one of the more unpredictable companies, and its stock is notoriously volatile.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特斯拉是一個相對不可預測的公司，其股票 notoriously 波動性很大。</p>
</div><p>However, it's entering the new year essentially priced for perfection at the current valuation. Autonomy is unlikely to have an impact as the company isn't planning on producing the Cybercab in 2026, though signs of progress could give the stock a boost.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，以當前的估值進入新的一年，特斯拉的股票基本上是以完美的價格定價。自動駕駛不太可能產生影響，因為公司並不打算在 2026 年生產 Cybercab，儘管進展的跡象可能會給股票帶來提振。</p>
</div><p>Instead, investor attention will be on the core business, the Model Q vehicle, and whether the Trump administration will be able to help the company in a material way.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>相反，投資者的關注將集中在核心業務、Model Q 車輛以及特朗普政府是否能夠在實質上幫助公司上。</p>
</div><p>With Tesla already trading at a market cap of $1.5 trillion and a P/E ratio of 200, the stock seems more likely to underperform than not next year, despite the current investor enthusiasm.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>考慮到特斯拉的市值已經達到 1.5 萬億美元，市盈率為 200，儘管當前投資者熱情高漲，但該股票在明年更可能表現不佳。</p>
</div>

Will Tesla Stock Pop or Drop in 2025?

- 特斯拉股票在 2024 年初表現不佳，年初至今下跌 14%。  
- 隨後因第三季度盈利增長和對未來生產的樂觀預測，股價反彈 125%。  
- 高估值和政策不確定性使得特斯拉未來表現面臨挑戰。

特斯拉股票在 2025 年會大漲還是大跌？