<p>加密貨幣在這個週末和今天下跌，因為投資者面臨可能更加鷹派的美聯儲，這可能導致 2025 年減少預期的降息次數。</p>
<p>全球最大的加密貨幣 <strong>比特幣</strong>(CRYPTO: BTC) 的價格在下午晚些時候交易時下跌約 4%，而且在週末也大幅下跌。截至週一東部時間下午 1:29，比特幣的交易價格約為 93,260 美元，此前在上週四曾突破 102,000 美元。<strong>狗狗幣</strong>(CRYPTO: DOGE) 的價格下跌 3.2%，而 <strong>XRP</strong>(CRYPTO: XRP) 下跌 3.1%。</p>
<h2>當前宏觀前景非常重要</h2>
<p>美聯儲在上週結束了今年最後一次會議後，市場隨之下跌。美聯儲還透露，預計明年只會有兩次降息，而不是在 9 月份會議上預測的四次。儘管許多投資者和市場專家在美聯儲會議前似乎預期到了這一點，但這一消息還是讓更廣泛的市場感到意外。</p>
<p>加密貨幣利益相關者今天早上得到了更多好消息，因當選總統唐納德·特朗普任命經濟學家、前美國財政部官員斯蒂芬·米蘭擔任總統有影響力的經濟顧問委員會主席。米蘭支持加密貨幣。</p>
<p>然而，投資者似乎更關注更廣泛的宏觀前景。儘管 11 月份的耐用品訂單低於預期，但國債收益率上升，通常對比特幣和整體加密貨幣來説是一個看跌的指標。</p>
<p>許多人認為比特幣可以對沖通脹。然而，加密貨幣受到的不僅僅是國債收益率的影響，黃金今天也下跌。美元持續走強，而比特幣作為一種替代貨幣，通常與美元呈反向關係。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/debd6f7fa8da6622f6b061c4c87277bb.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/debd6f7fa8da6622f6b061c4c87277bb.png"/></p>
<p>比特幣價格數據來自 YCharts。</p>
<p>押注 30 天美聯儲基金期貨價格的交易者越來越認為該機構在 2025 年降息的次數將少於之前預期。超過 91% 的交易者認為美聯儲將在 1 月份的會議上暫停降息，37.5% 的交易者認為美聯儲明年只會降息一次。</p>
<p>就在一週前，大多數交易者預計美聯儲明年會降息兩次，儘管請記住這些概率可能會迅速變化。</p>
<p>今天早上我沒有看到太多特定代幣的新聞，儘管邁克爾·塞勒的公司 <strong>MicroStrategy</strong> 繼續購買比特幣。上週，該公司以平均價格 106,662 美元購買了另外 5,262 個代幣，總花費為 5.61 億美元。塞勒公開預測比特幣到 2045 年可能飆升至 1300 萬美元。</p>
<h2>預計在新年到來時會有一些波動</h2>
<p>比特幣今年大幅上漲，因此更容易出現回調。我預計隨着市場尋找通脹和利率走勢的線索，該代幣將保持波動。</p>
<p>現在大多數交易者認為通脹將會頑固，並保持在美聯儲偏好的 2% 目標之上。投資者和美聯儲也在為特朗普提議的減税和關税可能帶來的通脹影響做好準備。</p>
<p>不過，所有這些都可能因 12 月份就業報告或 1 月初消費者物價指數的疲軟讀數而迅速改變方向，這就是我預計明年將開始波動的原因。XRP 和狗狗幣的波動性高於比特幣，因此這兩個代幣的漲幅和跌幅都應高於比特幣。</p>
<p>我喜歡比特幣，並認為 XRP 值得小規模的投機性投資。我目前對狗狗幣沒有任何興趣。</p>

GBTC

<p>包括比特幣、狗狗幣和 XRP 在內的加密貨幣出現下跌，投資者對美聯儲可能採取的鷹派立場作出反應，這可能導致 2025 年降息次數減少。比特幣下跌約 4%，至約 93,260 美元，而狗狗幣和 XRP 分別下跌 3.2% 和 3.1%。美聯儲最近的會議顯示，市場對明年僅有兩次降息的預期感到意外。儘管關於支持加密貨幣的任命有一些積極消息，但宏觀經濟前景依然令人擔憂，國債收益率上升和美元走強對加密貨幣價格產生影響。預計波動性將持續到新的一年</p>

<p>Cryptocurrencies fell this weekend and into today, as investors grappled with a potentially more hawkish Federal Reserve, which could lead to fewer rate cuts than hoped for in 2025.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>加密貨幣在這個週末和今天下跌，因為投資者面臨可能更加鷹派的美聯儲，這可能導致 2025 年減少預期的降息次數。</p>
</div><p>The price of <strong>Bitcoin</strong>(CRYPTO: BTC), the world's largest cryptocurrency, traded about 4% lower from late afternoon but also fell significantly over the weekend. As of 1:29 p.m. ET on Monday, Bitcoin traded around $93,260 after topping $102,000 last Thursday. The price of <strong>Dogecoin</strong>(CRYPTO: DOGE) traded 3.2% lower, while <strong>XRP</strong>(CRYPTO: XRP) had fallen 3.1%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>全球最大的加密貨幣 <strong>比特幣</strong>(CRYPTO: BTC) 的價格在下午晚些時候交易時下跌約 4%，而且在週末也大幅下跌。截至週一東部時間下午 1:29，比特幣的交易價格約為 93,260 美元，此前在上週四曾突破 102,000 美元。<strong>狗狗幣</strong>(CRYPTO: DOGE) 的價格下跌 3.2%，而 <strong>XRP</strong>(CRYPTO: XRP) 下跌 3.1%。</p>
</div><h2>The macro outlook is important right now</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>當前宏觀前景非常重要</h2>
</div><p>The Federal Reserve sent the market lower after concluding its final meeting of the year last week. The Fed also disclosed that it expects only two rate cuts next year instead of the four it projected at its September meeting. While many investors and market pundits seemed to expect this heading into the Fed's meeting, the news surprised the broader market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美聯儲在上週結束了今年最後一次會議後，市場隨之下跌。美聯儲還透露，預計明年只會有兩次降息，而不是在 9 月份會議上預測的四次。儘管許多投資者和市場專家在美聯儲會議前似乎預期到了這一點，但這一消息還是讓更廣泛的市場感到意外。</p>
</div><p>Crypto stakeholders got more good news this morning after President-elect Donald Trump appointed Stephen Miran, an economist and former U.S. Treasury Department official, to chair the president's influential Council of Economic Advisers. Moran is pro-crypto.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>加密貨幣利益相關者今天早上得到了更多好消息，因當選總統唐納德·特朗普任命經濟學家、前美國財政部官員斯蒂芬·米蘭擔任總統有影響力的經濟顧問委員會主席。米蘭支持加密貨幣。</p>
</div><p>However, investors seemed more focused on the broader macro outlook. Despite durable goods orders in November coming in below expectations, Treasury yields moved higher, normally a bearish indicator for Bitcoin and crypto overall.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，投資者似乎更關注更廣泛的宏觀前景。儘管 11 月份的耐用品訂單低於預期，但國債收益率上升，通常對比特幣和整體加密貨幣來説是一個看跌的指標。</p>
</div><p>Many think Bitcoin can hedge inflation. However, the cryptocurrency is impacted by more than Treasury yields, and gold also moved lower today. The dollar continued to strengthen, and Bitcoin, as an alternative currency, tends to have an inverse relationship with the dollar.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>許多人認為比特幣可以對沖通脹。然而，加密貨幣受到的不僅僅是國債收益率的影響，黃金今天也下跌。美元持續走強，而比特幣作為一種替代貨幣，通常與美元呈反向關係。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/debd6f7fa8da6622f6b061c4c87277bb.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/debd6f7fa8da6622f6b061c4c87277bb.png"/></p>
<p>Bitcoin price data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>比特幣價格數據來自 YCharts。</p>
</div><p>Traders betting on 30-day Fed funds future prices are increasingly counting on the agency cutting rates fewer times than previously expected in 2025. More than 91% of traders think it is set to pause rate cuts at its January meeting, and 37.5% of traders see the Fed doing only one rate cut next year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>押注 30 天美聯儲基金期貨價格的交易者越來越認為該機構在 2025 年降息的次數將少於之前預期。超過 91% 的交易者認為美聯儲將在 1 月份的會議上暫停降息，37.5% 的交易者認為美聯儲明年只會降息一次。</p>
</div><p>Just a week ago, most traders expected two cuts from the Fed next year, although keep in mind that these probabilities can change quickly.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>就在一週前，大多數交易者預計美聯儲明年會降息兩次，儘管請記住這些概率可能會迅速變化。</p>
</div><p>I didn't see much token-specific news this morning, although Michael Saylor's company, <strong>MicroStrategy</strong>, continues to buy Bitcoin. Last week, the company purchased another 5,262 tokens for $561 million at an average price of $106,662. Saylor has publicly predicted Bitcoin can soar to $13 million by 2045.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今天早上我沒有看到太多特定代幣的新聞，儘管邁克爾·塞勒的公司 <strong>MicroStrategy</strong> 繼續購買比特幣。上週，該公司以平均價格 106,662 美元購買了另外 5,262 個代幣，總花費為 5.61 億美元。塞勒公開預測比特幣到 2045 年可能飆升至 1300 萬美元。</p>
</div><h2>Expect some turbulence heading into the new year</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>預計在新年到來時會有一些波動</h2>
</div><p>Bitcoin has risen significantly this year, so it's more susceptible to pullbacks. I expect the token to remain volatile as the market looks for hints about inflation and the trajectory of interest rates.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>比特幣今年大幅上漲，因此更容易出現回調。我預計隨着市場尋找通脹和利率走勢的線索，該代幣將保持波動。</p>
</div><p>Most traders now think inflation will be sticky and stay above the Fed's preferred 2% target. Investors and the Fed are also bracing for the potential inflationary impact of Trump's proposed tax cuts and tariffs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>現在大多數交易者認為通脹將會頑固，並保持在美聯儲偏好的 2% 目標之上。投資者和美聯儲也在為特朗普提議的減税和關税可能帶來的通脹影響做好準備。</p>
</div><p>Still, all of this could change direction on a dime with a weak reading of the December jobs report or the Consumer Price Index in early January, which is why I expect volatility to begin next year. XRP and Dogecoin are more volatile than Bitcoin, so the two tokens should experience higher gains and worse losses than Bitcoin.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不過，所有這些都可能因 12 月份就業報告或 1 月初消費者物價指數的疲軟讀數而迅速改變方向，這就是我預計明年將開始波動的原因。XRP 和狗狗幣的波動性高於比特幣，因此這兩個代幣的漲幅和跌幅都應高於比特幣。</p>
</div><p>I like Bitcoin and think XRP warrants a smaller, speculative position. I do not currently have any interest in Dogecoin.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我喜歡比特幣，並認為 XRP 值得小規模的投機性投資。我目前對狗狗幣沒有任何興趣。</p>
</div>

Why Cryptocurrencies Bitcoin, Dogecoin, and XRP Are Stumbling Today

- 加密貨幣在本週末和今天下跌，因投資者擔憂美聯儲可能更鷹派。  
- 比特幣價格從上週四的 $102,000 降至約 $93,260，狗狗幣和 XRP 也分別下跌 3.2% 和 3.1%。  
- 投資者關注宏觀經濟前景，預計美聯儲明年僅會降息兩次。  

為什麼加密貨幣比特幣、狗狗幣和 XRP 今天表現不佳