<p>湯姆·李是一位傑出的股票研究分析師，並擔任 Fundstrat Global Advisors 的管理合夥人。幾個月前，李對他對芯片巨頭 <strong>英偉達</strong>(NVDA 3.69%) 的前景進行了更新。</p>
<p>英偉達在過去兩年的表現可謂前所未有。圍繞人工智能（AI）的興奮情緒導致對英偉達的數據中心服務和圖形處理單元（GPU）芯片組的需求激增。雖然自然會認為英偉達的勢頭在某個時刻會減緩，但李的看法有所不同——他預測未來十年將實現當前水平的十倍增長。</p>
<p>接下來，我將探討圍繞李對英偉達 10 倍預測的多頭和空頭案例。在仔細考慮所有角度後，我希望投資者能夠對未來十年可能影響英偉達的催化劑和阻力有更多瞭解。</p>
<h2>英偉達的多頭案例</h2>
<p>如果你一直在關注我在 AI 熱潮期間的文章，你會知道我將 2022 年 11 月 30 日視為 AI 革命的非正式開始日期。為什麼這麼具體？因為那天 OpenAI 向大眾發佈了 ChatGPT，掀起了一場全球現象。在許多方面，我將 ChatGPT 的發佈視為 Facebook 早期和社交媒體誕生的類似事件。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/9c9ba39b14b42570b259f5c0efe52085.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/9c9ba39b14b42570b259f5c0efe52085.png"/></p>
<p>NVDA 季度收入數據來自 YCharts</p>
<p>看看過去兩年英偉達的收入、淨收入和自由現金流的增長曲線（以 2022 年 11 月 30 日為起始日期）。英偉達的加速增長源於對其 GPU 芯片組的前所未有的需求。當我説 “前所未有” 時並不是誇大其詞——英偉達已獲得約 90% 的 GPU 市場份額，許多理由表明該公司的勢頭才剛剛開始。</p>
<p>行業研究表明，未來幾年對 AI 基礎設施的投資將超過數萬億美元。英偉達的新 Blackwell GPU 架構，加上其繼任產品 Rubin（計劃於 2026 年發佈），使公司在 AI 投資持續擴大的情況下，能夠獲得增量市場份額。</p>
<p>英偉達的創新速度，加上其強勁的財務狀況（以持續上升的利潤為支撐），使得人們很難相信對該公司的悲觀敍述。然而，聰明的投資者知道，在全力押注英偉達之前，還有更多的因素需要考慮。</p>
<h2>英偉達的空頭案例</h2>
<p>英偉達 GPU 銷售激增的原因之一在於該公司的技術棧是如何運作的。你看，英偉達的 GPU（硬件）運行在公司的計算統一設備架構（CUDA）軟件上。這種緊密集成使得企業很難利用其他芯片製造商的產品和服務。</p>
<p>正如我在幾個月前的這篇文章中所表達的，司法部（DOJ）很可能會決定調查英偉達的商業行為，因為該公司顯然正在成為壟斷。換句話説：政府可能會迫使英偉達放鬆控制，使 CUDA 系統更加靈活，以便與其他公司開發的 GPU 硬件無縫協作。如果發生這種情況，英偉達的增長率將減緩，公司市場份額可能會開始縮小。</p>
<p>誠然，上述想法更多是基於推測而非現實。然而，英偉達面臨的一個更現實的阻力來自競爭。</p>
<p>英偉達最大的客户包括雲計算巨頭如 <strong>微軟</strong>、<strong>谷歌</strong> 和 <strong>亞馬遜</strong>，以及 “七大巨頭” 中的 <strong>Meta Platforms</strong> 和 <strong>特斯拉</strong>。雖然對 AI 基礎設施的投資增加對英偉達來説可能是好事，但投資者需要理解，這種動態也可能對公司造成不利影響。上述提到的每家公司要麼在投資自家開發的芯片，要麼已知在用低成本替代品補充其英偉達 GPU——即來自 <strong>超威半導體</strong> 的產品。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDE3ODcvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTMwMjgwMTY2OC0yLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDE3ODcvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTMwMjgwMTY2OC0yLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>結論</h2>
<p>歸根結底，我認為英偉達的估值在未來十年內上漲 10 倍的可能性極小。雖然我對該公司整體持樂觀態度，但我確實很難看到該公司的增長如何在未來幾年繼續產生多倍回報。</p>
<p>對我來説，英偉達仍然是一隻堅實的股票，適合投資於 AI 行業，但我認為在面對直接和內部競爭以及政府幹預的潛在可能時，預測十倍增長有些過於樂觀。</p>

英偉達

<p>Fundstrat Global Advisors 的 Tom Lee 預測，未來十年內英偉達的增長將達到十倍，這主要得益於對人工智能相關服務和 GPU 技術需求的激增。他強調了英偉達在市場上的主導地位和創新能力是其主要增長因素。然而，潛在的挑戰包括政府對壟斷行為的審查以及來自開發自有芯片公司的競爭加劇。儘管 Lee 對英偉達的前景持樂觀態度，但他對實現如此高的估值增長表示懷疑，認為在競爭激烈的環境下，這可能過於雄心勃勃</p>

<p>Tom Lee is an accomplished equity research analyst and serves as a managing partner at Fundstrat Global Advisors. A couple of months ago, Lee provided an update on his outlook on chip megastar <strong>Nvidia</strong>(NVDA 3.69%).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>湯姆·李是一位傑出的股票研究分析師，並擔任 Fundstrat Global Advisors 的管理合夥人。幾個月前，李對他對芯片巨頭 <strong>英偉達</strong>(NVDA 3.69%) 的前景進行了更新。</p>
</div><p>Nvidia's run over the last two years is nothing short of unprecedented. Excitement surrounding artificial intelligence (AI) has led to a generational surge in demand for Nvidia's data center services and graphics processing unit (GPU) chipsets. While it's natural to think that Nvidia's momentum is going to slow down at some point, Lee sees things differently -- calling for tenfold growth from current levels over the next decade.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英偉達在過去兩年的表現可謂前所未有。圍繞人工智能（AI）的興奮情緒導致對英偉達的數據中心服務和圖形處理單元（GPU）芯片組的需求激增。雖然自然會認為英偉達的勢頭在某個時刻會減緩，但李的看法有所不同——他預測未來十年將實現當前水平的十倍增長。</p>
</div><p>Below, I'm going to explore a bull and bear case surrounding Lee's 10x forecast on Nvidia. After carefully considering all angles, I hope investors can come away with more knowledge surrounding both the catalysts and headwinds that could impact Nvidia over the next decade.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>接下來，我將探討圍繞李對英偉達 10 倍預測的多頭和空頭案例。在仔細考慮所有角度後，我希望投資者能夠對未來十年可能影響英偉達的催化劑和阻力有更多瞭解。</p>
</div><h2>The bull case for Nvidia</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>英偉達的多頭案例</h2>
</div><p>If you've been following my articles during the AI boom, you'll know that I see Nov. 30, 2022 as the unofficial start date of the AI revolution. Why so specific? Because that's the day OpenAI released ChatGPT to the masses and sparked a worldwide phenomenon for the ages. In many ways, I view the launch of ChatGPT akin to the early days of Facebook and the birth of social media.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果你一直在關注我在 AI 熱潮期間的文章，你會知道我將 2022 年 11 月 30 日視為 AI 革命的非正式開始日期。為什麼這麼具體？因為那天 OpenAI 向大眾發佈了 ChatGPT，掀起了一場全球現象。在許多方面，我將 ChatGPT 的發佈視為 Facebook 早期和社交媒體誕生的類似事件。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/9c9ba39b14b42570b259f5c0efe52085.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/9c9ba39b14b42570b259f5c0efe52085.png"/></p>
<p>NVDA Revenue (Quarterly) data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>NVDA 季度收入數據來自 YCharts</p>
</div><p>Just look at the slope of the lines illustrating Nvidia's revenue, net income, and free cash flow over the last two years (with Nov. 30, 2022 being the start date depicted above). Nvidia's accelerated growth stems from unparalleled demand for its GPU chipsets. When I say &#34;unparalleled&#34; I'm not exaggerating -- Nvidia has acquired an estimated 90% of the GPU market, and there are many reasons to believe the company's momentum is just beginning.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>看看過去兩年英偉達的收入、淨收入和自由現金流的增長曲線（以 2022 年 11 月 30 日為起始日期）。英偉達的加速增長源於對其 GPU 芯片組的前所未有的需求。當我説 “前所未有” 時並不是誇大其詞——英偉達已獲得約 90% 的 GPU 市場份額，許多理由表明該公司的勢頭才剛剛開始。</p>
</div><p>Industry research suggests that investments in AI infrastructure are going to exceed trillions of dollars over the next several years. Nvidia's new Blackwell GPU architecture, combined with its successor product dubbed Rubin (slotted for a 2026 launch), positions the company well to acquire incremental market share as AI investments continue to scale.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>行業研究表明，未來幾年對 AI 基礎設施的投資將超過數萬億美元。英偉達的新 Blackwell GPU 架構，加上其繼任產品 Rubin（計劃於 2026 年發佈），使公司在 AI 投資持續擴大的情況下，能夠獲得增量市場份額。</p>
</div><p>The pace at which Nvidia is innovating, combined with its strong financial profile underscored by consistently rising profits, makes it difficult to buy into a pessimistic narrative over the company. Nevertheless, smart investors know that there are more stones to turn over before betting the house on Nvidia.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英偉達的創新速度，加上其強勁的財務狀況（以持續上升的利潤為支撐），使得人們很難相信對該公司的悲觀敍述。然而，聰明的投資者知道，在全力押注英偉達之前，還有更多的因素需要考慮。</p>
</div><h2>The bear case for Nvidia</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>英偉達的空頭案例</h2>
</div><p>One of the reasons Nvidia's GPU sales have skyrocketed stems from how the company's technology stack actually works. You see, Nvidia's GPUs (hardware) run on the company's compute unified device architecture (CUDA) software. This tight integration makes it extremely difficult for businesses to leverage products and services from other chipmakers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英偉達 GPU 銷售激增的原因之一在於該公司的技術棧是如何運作的。你看，英偉達的 GPU（硬件）運行在公司的計算統一設備架構（CUDA）軟件上。這種緊密集成使得企業很難利用其他芯片製造商的產品和服務。</p>
</div><p>As I expressed in this piece from a few months ago, the Department of Justice (DOJ) could very well decide to investigate Nvidia's business practices given the company is arguably becoming a monopoly. Translation: The government could force Nvidia to loosen its grip and make the CUDA system more malleable so that it works seamlessly with GPU hardware developed by other companies. Should this occur, Nvidia's growth rate would decelerate and the company's market share would likely begin to shrink.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>正如我在幾個月前的這篇文章中所表達的，司法部（DOJ）很可能會決定調查英偉達的商業行為，因為該公司顯然正在成為壟斷。換句話説：政府可能會迫使英偉達放鬆控制，使 CUDA 系統更加靈活，以便與其他公司開發的 GPU 硬件無縫協作。如果發生這種情況，英偉達的增長率將減緩，公司市場份額可能會開始縮小。</p>
</div><p>Admittedly, the idea above is rooted more in speculation than reality. However, a more realistic headwind Nvidia is facing comes from competition.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>誠然，上述想法更多是基於推測而非現實。然而，英偉達面臨的一個更現實的阻力來自競爭。</p>
</div><p>Nvidia's largest customers include cloud hyperscalers such as <strong>Microsoft</strong>, <strong>Alphabet</strong>, and <strong>Amazon</strong>, as well as &#34;Magnificent Seven&#34; cohorts <strong>Meta Platforms</strong> and <strong>Tesla</strong>. While increasing investments in AI infrastructure can be a good thing for Nvidia, it's important for investors to understand that this dynamic could also be a detriment for the company. Each of the companies referenced above is either investing in its own homegrown chips or is known to be supplementing its Nvidia GPUs with those offered by lower-cost alternatives -- namely from <strong>Advanced Micro Devices</strong>.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英偉達最大的客户包括雲計算巨頭如 <strong>微軟</strong>、<strong>谷歌</strong> 和 <strong>亞馬遜</strong>，以及 “七大巨頭” 中的 <strong>Meta Platforms</strong> 和 <strong>特斯拉</strong>。雖然對 AI 基礎設施的投資增加對英偉達來説可能是好事，但投資者需要理解，這種動態也可能對公司造成不利影響。上述提到的每家公司要麼在投資自家開發的芯片，要麼已知在用低成本替代品補充其英偉達 GPU——即來自 <strong>超威半導體</strong> 的產品。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDE3ODcvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTMwMjgwMTY2OC0yLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F801787%2Fgettyimages-1302801668-2.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>The bottom line</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>結論</h2>
</div><p>At the end of the day, I think that it is highly unlikely that Nvidia's valuation will rise 10x over the next decade. While I remain bullish on the company overall, I simply struggle to see how the company's growth can continue generating multibagger-style returns over the next several years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>歸根結底，我認為英偉達的估值在未來十年內上漲 10 倍的可能性極小。雖然我對該公司整體持樂觀態度，但我確實很難看到該公司的增長如何在未來幾年繼續產生多倍回報。</p>
</div><p>To me, Nvidia is still a rock-solid stock to own for exposure to the AI industry, but I think calling for tenfold growth in the face of direct and internal competition plus the potential for government intervention is a bit of an overzealous call.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>對我來説，英偉達仍然是一隻堅實的股票，適合投資於 AI 行業，但我認為在面對直接和內部競爭以及政府幹預的潛在可能時，預測十倍增長有些過於樂觀。</p>
</div>

Tom Lee Predicts a 10x Boom for Nvidia: Breaking Down the Bull and Bear Cases

- Tom Lee 預測 Nvidia 在未來十年將實現十倍增長。  
- Nvidia 受益於 AI 需求激增，市場份額達 90%。  
- 競爭和政府幹預可能影響其增長潛力。  

Tom Lee 預測英偉達將迎來 10 倍增長：解析看漲和看跌的情況