<p><strong>蘋果</strong>（AAPL 0.31%）在 2024 年即將結束之際，為其股東帶來了節日的喜悦。截至目前，該股今年以來已上漲 30%，延續了公司在華爾街的輝煌傳統。事實上，蘋果在過去五年中實現了 269% 的回報，遠超同期 <strong>標準普爾 500 指數</strong> 的 82% 漲幅。</p>
<p>投資者是否應該期待 2025 年這家消費電子巨頭繼續上漲，創造另一個破紀錄的年份？讓我們探討一下到明年此時蘋果股票可能會處於何種狀態。</p>
<h2>驅動增長的蘋果智能</h2>
<p>蘋果有很多值得稱道之處，它已鞏固了自己作為全球最具影響力的消費品牌和技術創新者之一的地位。公司的高端設備系列，從旗艦 iPhone 和 Mac 電腦到不斷擴展的可穿戴設備和配件，以其卓越的質量和熱情的客户忠誠度而聞名。</p>
<p>傳奇投資者沃倫·巴菲特將蘋果視為其金融集團 <strong>伯克希爾·哈撒韋</strong> 股票投資組合中最大的單一持股，這並非巧合。巴菲特長期以來強調，堅守那些提供消費者喜愛的優質產品的公司是長期成功的關鍵特徵。從所有跡象來看，蘋果將繼續增長，並在未來幾十年內保持其領導地位。個人投資者很難找到另一隻具備蘋果那樣基本面強勁和競爭護城河的股票。</p>
<p>展望未來，蘋果並沒有僅僅滿足於過去的成就。公司正在推進一個以在其設備和更廣泛的服務生態系統中利用新人工智能能力為中心的戰略願景。</p>
<p>蘋果首席執行官蒂姆·庫克認為，最近推出的蘋果智能平台標誌着公司進入了一個 “新時代”，集成了生成文本和生成圖像等功能，以及更先進的 Siri 語音助手聊天機器人。這項努力通過有趣和提升生產力的工具增強了用户體驗，同時也開闢了新的增長渠道。總體而言，蘋果擁有強勁的運營和財務順風，突顯了其積極的前景。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDE2NjgvYXBwbGUtc3RvY2stcHJpY2Utb3V0bG9vay0yMDI1LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDE2NjgvYXBwbGUtc3RvY2stcHJpY2Utb3V0bG9vay0yMDI1LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>2025 年的強勁前景</h2>
<p>在全球超過 22 億台活躍蘋果設備的支持下，蘋果智能有望以熟悉且易於使用的界面將人工智能的力量帶給大眾。預計公司不僅將受益於新技術引發的更新週期的興趣增加，還將受益於強勁的宏觀經濟背景。</p>
<p>與蘋果完成的 2024 財年（截至 9 月 28 日）中收入僅增長 2% 相比，華爾街分析師預計 2025 年將實現更強勁的 6% 增長率。更令人印象深刻的是，預計新一年的每股收益（EPS）將比去年高出 21.5%，這得益於蘋果多元化的高增長服務帶來的盈利能力改善。蘋果在接下來的幾個季度的業績，包括即將到來的假日購物季，將對蘋果智能的早期影響至關重要。</p>
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>指標</th>
<th>2024</th>
<th>2025 預測</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>收入</td>
<td>3910 億美元</td>
<td>4144 億美元</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>收入增長（同比）</td>
<td>2%</td>
<td>6%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>每股收益</td>
<td>6.08 美元</td>
<td>7.39 美元</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>每股收益增長（同比）</td>
<td>(0.8%)</td>
<td>21.5%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>數據來源：Yahoo Finance。同比 = 年比年。</p>
<h2>高估值需謹慎</h2>
<p>在投資者對公司 2025 年的潛力過於興奮之前，有幾點需要謹慎對待。</p>
<p>蘋果的股票目前以其 2025 年每股收益的 34 倍交易，這一水平遠高於接近 29 的五年平均估值倍數，表明該股票相對昂貴。儘管蘋果作為一家以人工智能驅動的消費品牌，服務收入不斷增長的地位可能會為這種溢價估值提供合理性，但仍然存在關於盈利倍數能否進一步擴大的疑問。可以説，公司強勁的短期前景已經反映在股價中。然而，股票的看漲理由在於蘋果能夠超出預期表現。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/a0d6873a6acccbc36e1f2534e974a4a4.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/a0d6873a6acccbc36e1f2534e974a4a4.png"/></p>
<p>AAPL 市盈率（前瞻）數據來源於 YCharts</p>
<h2>我對 2025 年蘋果的預測</h2>
<p>這條路可能不會是一帆風順，但我認為蘋果在一年內的股價有很大機會上漲。除非有明確證據表明情況發生了實質性變化，否則投資者的明智選擇是繼續持有。蘋果仍然是一隻優秀的股票，值得在多元化投資組合中佔有一席之地。</p>

蘋果

<p>蘋果的股票今年迄今已上漲 30%，顯著超過標準普爾 500 指數。憑藉強大的產品陣容和對人工智能的戰略關注，分析師預計 2025 年收入將增長 6%，每股收益將增加 21.5%。然而，股票的交易估值高達共識每股收益的 34 倍，超過了五年平均水平。儘管如此，前景依然積極，投資者被鼓勵繼續持有蘋果的股票，因為該公司持續創新和增長</p>

<p><strong>Apple</strong>(AAPL 0.31%) has done its part to lift the holiday spirits of its shareholders as 2024 comes to an end. At the time of this writing, the stock has surged 30% year to date, continuing the company's tradition of crushing Wall Street. Indeed, Apple's 269% return in just the past five years has more than tripled the <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong> index's 82% gain over the same period.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>蘋果</strong>（AAPL 0.31%）在 2024 年即將結束之際，為其股東帶來了節日的喜悦。截至目前，該股今年以來已上漲 30%，延續了公司在華爾街的輝煌傳統。事實上，蘋果在過去五年中實現了 269% 的回報，遠超同期 <strong>標準普爾 500 指數</strong> 的 82% 漲幅。</p>
</div><p>Should investors expect the rally to continue in 2025 with another record-breaking year for this consumer electronics juggernaut? Let's explore where Apple stock might be by this time next year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投資者是否應該期待 2025 年這家消費電子巨頭繼續上漲，創造另一個破紀錄的年份？讓我們探討一下到明年此時蘋果股票可能會處於何種狀態。</p>
</div><h2>Apple Intelligence driving growth</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>驅動增長的蘋果智能</h2>
</div><p>There's a lot to like about Apple, which has cemented itself as one of the world's most influential consumer brands and technology innovators. The company's premium device lineup, from its flagship iPhone and Mac computers to its expanding collection of wearables and accessories, is recognized for its exceptional quality and fervent customer loyalty.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>蘋果有很多值得稱道之處，它已鞏固了自己作為全球最具影響力的消費品牌和技術創新者之一的地位。公司的高端設備系列，從旗艦 iPhone 和 Mac 電腦到不斷擴展的可穿戴設備和配件，以其卓越的質量和熱情的客户忠誠度而聞名。</p>
</div><p>It's no coincidence that legendary investor Warren Buffett counts Apple as the single largest holding within the stock portfolio of his financial conglomerate <strong>Berkshire Hathaway</strong>. Buffett has long emphasized the importance of sticking with companies that offer a superior product that consumers love as a key trait for long-term success. By all indications, Apple will continue growing and hold its leadership position for decades. Individual investors will be hard-pressed to find another stock with Apple's fundamental strength and competitive moat.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>傳奇投資者沃倫·巴菲特將蘋果視為其金融集團 <strong>伯克希爾·哈撒韋</strong> 股票投資組合中最大的單一持股，這並非巧合。巴菲特長期以來強調，堅守那些提供消費者喜愛的優質產品的公司是長期成功的關鍵特徵。從所有跡象來看，蘋果將繼續增長，並在未來幾十年內保持其領導地位。個人投資者很難找到另一隻具備蘋果那樣基本面強勁和競爭護城河的股票。</p>
</div><p>Looking ahead, Apple isn't simply resting on its past achievements. The company is advancing a strategic vision centered on leveraging new artificial intelligence capabilities across its devices and broader services ecosystem.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>展望未來，蘋果並沒有僅僅滿足於過去的成就。公司正在推進一個以在其設備和更廣泛的服務生態系統中利用新人工智能能力為中心的戰略願景。</p>
</div><p>Apple CEO Tim Cook believes the recently launched Apple Intelligence platform marks a &#34;new era&#34; for the company, integrating features like generative text and generative images, and a more advanced Siri voice assistant chatbot. The effort enhances the user experience with fun and productivity-boosting tools while also opening new growth channels. Overall, Apple has a strong operating and financial tailwind highlighting its positive outlook.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>蘋果首席執行官蒂姆·庫克認為，最近推出的蘋果智能平台標誌着公司進入了一個 “新時代”，集成了生成文本和生成圖像等功能，以及更先進的 Siri 語音助手聊天機器人。這項努力通過有趣和提升生產力的工具增強了用户體驗，同時也開闢了新的增長渠道。總體而言，蘋果擁有強勁的運營和財務順風，突顯了其積極的前景。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDE2NjgvYXBwbGUtc3RvY2stcHJpY2Utb3V0bG9vay0yMDI1LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F801668%2Fapple-stock-price-outlook-2025.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>A strong outlook into 2025</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>2025 年的強勁前景</h2>
</div><p>With more than 2.2 billion active Apple devices worldwide, Apple Intelligence stands to deliver the power of AI to the masses in a familiar and easy-to-use interface. The expectation is that the company will benefit not only from increased interest in the new technology kick-starting a refresh cycle but also from a resilient macroeconomic backdrop.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在全球超過 22 億台活躍蘋果設備的支持下，蘋果智能有望以熟悉且易於使用的界面將人工智能的力量帶給大眾。預計公司不僅將受益於新技術引發的更新週期的興趣增加，還將受益於強勁的宏觀經濟背景。</p>
</div><p>Compared to Apple's completed fiscal 2024 (for the period ended Sept. 28) in which revenue increased by a modest 2%, Wall Street analysts are projecting a stronger 2025 with a 6% growth rate. Even more impressive is the 21.5% higher estimated earnings per share (EPS) this new year, driven by improving profitability margins from Apple's diverse group of high-growth services. Apple's results over the next few quarters, including the ongoing holiday shopping season, will be critical to Apple Intelligence's early impact.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>與蘋果完成的 2024 財年（截至 9 月 28 日）中收入僅增長 2% 相比，華爾街分析師預計 2025 年將實現更強勁的 6% 增長率。更令人印象深刻的是，預計新一年的每股收益（EPS）將比去年高出 21.5%，這得益於蘋果多元化的高增長服務帶來的盈利能力改善。蘋果在接下來的幾個季度的業績，包括即將到來的假日購物季，將對蘋果智能的早期影響至關重要。</p>
</div><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Metric</th>
<th>2024</th>
<th>2025 Estimate</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Revenue</td>
<td>$391 billion</td>
<td>$414.4 billion</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Revenue growth (YOY)</td>
<td>2%</td>
<td>6%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>EPS</td>
<td>$6.08</td>
<td>$7.39</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>EPS growth (YOY)</td>
<td>(0.8%)</td>
<td>21.5%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<div class="lb-trans"><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>指標</th>
<th>2024</th>
<th>2025 預測</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>收入</td>
<td>3910 億美元</td>
<td>4144 億美元</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>收入增長（同比）</td>
<td>2%</td>
<td>6%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>每股收益</td>
<td>6.08 美元</td>
<td>7.39 美元</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>每股收益增長（同比）</td>
<td>(0.8%)</td>
<td>21.5%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div><p>Data source: Yahoo Finance. YOY = year over year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>數據來源：Yahoo Finance。同比 = 年比年。</p>
</div><h2>A pricey valuation warrants some caution</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>高估值需謹慎</h2>
</div><p>Before investors get too excited about the company's potential in 2025, a couple of points warrant some caution.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在投資者對公司 2025 年的潛力過於興奮之前，有幾點需要謹慎對待。</p>
</div><p>Shares of Apple are trading at 34 times its consensus 2025 EPS, a level that is now well above the five-year average for the valuation multiple closer to 29 suggesting the stock is relatively expensive. While Apple's strengthening position as an AI-powered consumer brand with growing services revenue could justify that premium valuation, questions remain about how much higher the earnings multiple can expand. An argument could be made that the company's strong near-term outlook is already reflected in the stock price. Nevertheless, the bullish case for the stock is that Apple manages to outperform expectations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>蘋果的股票目前以其 2025 年每股收益的 34 倍交易，這一水平遠高於接近 29 的五年平均估值倍數，表明該股票相對昂貴。儘管蘋果作為一家以人工智能驅動的消費品牌，服務收入不斷增長的地位可能會為這種溢價估值提供合理性，但仍然存在關於盈利倍數能否進一步擴大的疑問。可以説，公司強勁的短期前景已經反映在股價中。然而，股票的看漲理由在於蘋果能夠超出預期表現。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/a0d6873a6acccbc36e1f2534e974a4a4.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/a0d6873a6acccbc36e1f2534e974a4a4.png"/></p>
<p>AAPL PE Ratio (Forward) data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>AAPL 市盈率（前瞻）數據來源於 YCharts</p>
</div><h2>My Apple prediction for 2025</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>我對 2025 年蘋果的預測</h2>
</div><p>It likely won't be a straight line higher, but I see a good chance that Apple will be trading at a higher share price in one year. Unless there is some clear evidence that the circumstances have materially changed, the prudent move for investors is to stay the course. Apple remains a great stock that deserves a spot within a diversified portfolio.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這條路可能不會是一帆風順，但我認為蘋果在一年內的股價有很大機會上漲。除非有明確證據表明情況發生了實質性變化，否則投資者的明智選擇是繼續持有。蘋果仍然是一隻優秀的股票，值得在多元化投資組合中佔有一席之地。</p>
</div>

Where Will Apple Stock Be in 1 Year?

- 蘋果公司股價年初至今上漲 30%，過去五年回報率達 269%。  
- 預計 2025 年蘋果收入將增長 6%，每股收益預計增長 21.5%。  
- 然而，蘋果市盈率已達 34 倍，需謹慎對待其高估值。  

一年後蘋果股票會處於什麼位置？