<p>在過去兩年裏，華爾街上沒有比人工智能（AI）的崛起更熱門的趨勢。人工智能驅動的軟件和系統在現有任務上變得更加高效，並且能夠隨着時間的推移在沒有人類干預的情況下學習新工作，這使得這項技術幾乎擁有無限的上限和廣泛的應用潛力。</p>
<p>根據普華永道分析師的一個激進估計，人工智能革命可以在本十年末為全球經濟增加 15.7 萬億美元。這一超乎尋常的可尋址市場正是人工智能股票自 2023 年初以來飆升的原因。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDE5MzAvbW9uZXktbWFuYWdlci1zdG9jay1jaGFydC1tYXJrZXQtbGV2ZWwtMi1kYXRhLWludmVzdC1nZXR0eS5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDE5MzAvbW9uZXktbWFuYWdlci1zdG9jay1jaGFydC1tYXJrZXQtbGV2ZWwtMi1kYXRhLWludmVzdC1nZXR0eS5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<p>然而，並不是每個人都相信人工智能股票仍然是個便宜的選擇。儘管相當多的億萬富翁資金經理在過去兩年中從人工智能股票的激增中獲利豐厚，但一些人正在鎖定收益並退居二線，包括斯坦利·德魯肯米勒。</p>
<p>截至九月底，德魯肯米勒在杜克斯家族辦公室管理着近 30 億美元的資產，分散在 75 個持股中。雖然德魯肯米勒仍然看好少數幾隻人工智能股票，但他已經將華爾街兩隻最受歡迎的人工智能巨頭，<strong>Nvidia</strong>（NVDA 3.69%）和 <strong>Palantir Technologies</strong>（PLTR 0.17%），拋售。</p>
<h2>德魯肯米勒的杜克斯拋售了 Nvidia 和 Palantir 的股票</h2>
<p>當 2024 年開始時，杜克斯持有 6174940 股人工智能圖形處理單元（GPU）公司 Nvidia 的股票，這考慮到其在 6 月 7 日交易結束後完成的歷史性 10 比 1 股票拆分。截至 9 月 30 日，所有股票均已售出。</p>
<p>與此同時，德魯肯米勒的基金在第三季度出售了 728255 股人工智能驅動的數據挖掘專家 Palantir 的股票，這使得杜克斯家族辦公室在該公司的股份減少了約 95%。</p>
<p>如果你在尋找一個合理的理由，説明華爾街最知名的億萬富翁投資者為何拋售兩隻熱門人工智能股票，簡單的獲利了結是有道理的。截至 12 月 20 日收盤，Nvidia 和 Palantir 的股票分別上漲了 172% 和 369%。這些都是超出常規的收益，通常會促使資金經理將部分或全部籌碼撤出。</p>
<p>華爾街和投資者擔心的是，可能還有其他原因促使德魯肯米勒及其顧問放棄這些股票，而不僅僅是簡單的獲利了結。</p>
<p>或許主要的擔憂是，過去三十年中每一個下一個重大創新都遵循了相同的軌跡。具體來説，是一段炒作和狂熱的時期，隨後是泡沫破裂的事件。自 1990 年代中期互聯網出現以來的每一個重大創新都需要時間來成熟。</p>
<p>儘管這一過程在包括基因解碼、3D 打印、區塊鏈技術和元宇宙在內的多個下一個重大趨勢中都在上演，但投資者始終高估了新技術或創新被採納和獲得廣泛應用的速度。即使企業在數據中心基礎設施上進行了積極投資，大多數企業也缺乏明確的計劃來實現其人工智能投資的正回報。這很可能表明人工智能是華爾街下一個等待破裂的泡沫。</p>
<p>估值是 Nvidia 和 Palantir 面臨的另一個核心問題。在 6 月底和 7 月初，Nvidia 的過去 12 個月（TTM）市銷率（P/S）超過了 40，這一水平與互聯網泡沫破裂前市場領先企業的峯值一致。Palantir 的估值甚至更為刺眼，該公司目前的市銷率高達 73 倍的歷史最高水平。歷史告訴我們，這些不是可持續的水平。</p>
<p>即使 Nvidia 預計將保持其在 AI-GPU 市場的領先地位，而 Palantir 沒有大型競爭對手，但兩隻股票的回調似乎是可能的。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDE5MzAvYmlvdGVjaC1sYWItcmVzZWFyY2gtd2l0aC1tdWx0aXBsZS1waXBldHRlcy1nZXR0eS5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDE5MzAvYmlvdGVjaC1sYWItcmVzZWFyY2gtd2l0aC1tdWx0aXBsZS1waXBldHRlcy1nZXR0eS5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>德魯肯米勒正在大量購買這隻炙手可熱的製藥股票</h2>
<p>但當斯坦利·德魯肯米勒忙於管理杜克斯投資組合中高調的人工智能股票的出售時，他卻在大量購買華爾街 2024 年表現最佳的製藥股票之一：<strong>Teva Pharmaceutical Industries</strong>（TEVA 0.54%）。Teva 的股票今年上漲了 112%，德魯肯米勒的基金在 9 月底的季度中增加了 1427950 股。</p>
<p>過去八年對 Teva 來説並不容易。它因在 2016 年以高價收購仿製藥製造商 Actavis 而積累了大量債務，並面臨來自幾乎所有美國州的訴訟，涉及其在阿片類藥物危機中的角色。未知/鉅額的法律和解潛力，加上近年來仿製藥的定價能力和銷售表現不佳，嚴重壓制了 Teva 的股價。</p>
<p>好消息是，一些戰略變革和法律解決使 Teva 成為華爾街在 2025 年前最受追捧的藥品股票之一。</p>
<p>可以説，最重要的上行催化劑是將其阿片類藥物訴訟拋在腦後。去年，該公司與 48 個州達成了 42.5 億美元的和解協議，分攤時間為 13 年。其中一些和解金額包括向各州提供高達 12 億美元的仿製藥過量逆轉藥 Narcan。</p>
<p>Teva 管理團隊所做的關鍵戰略舉措之一是將重點轉向品牌藥物。儘管新藥的銷售獨佔期有限，但它們的利潤率更高，增長潛力也比仿製藥更為可觀。該公司兩款暢銷品牌藥物，治療遲發性運動障礙的 Austedo 和用於預防偏頭痛的 Ajovy，在截至九月的季度中，銷售額同比增長超過 20%（按固定匯率計算）。</p>
<p>Teva 的新藥管線同樣展現出巨大的潛力。12 月份股價飆升的原因與實驗藥物 duvakitug 在治療中重度炎症性腸病患者的二期 b 階段臨牀試驗中報告的積極數據有關。該藥物與 <strong>賽諾菲</strong> 合作開發，達到了主要終點，並在潰瘍性結腸炎和克羅恩病患者中實現了比安慰劑更多的臨牀緩解。如果獲得批准，duvakitug 的年峯值銷售額可能超過 10 億美元。</p>
<p>此外，Teva 的領導層在出售非核心資產、降低運營費用和穩步改善公司財務靈活性方面表現出色。在 2016 年收購 Actavis 後，Teva 製藥的淨債務超過 350 億美元，而現在其資產負債表上的淨債務已降至不到 157 億美元。</p>
<p>隨着 Teva 期待已久的轉機終於到來，公司的股價仍然便宜，預計 2025 年的每股收益（EPS）不到 8 倍。</p>

梯瓦制藥

<p>億萬富翁投資者斯坦利·德魯肯米勒已出售了所有的英偉達股份，並大幅減少了在 Palantir 的持股，理由是在對潛在人工智能泡沫的擔憂中進行獲利了結。儘管英偉達和 Palantir 今年分別實現了 172% 和 369% 的顯著漲幅，但估值問題依然令人擔憂。相反，德魯肯米勒正在投資於梯瓦製藥，該公司的股票今年上漲了 112%，得益於戰略調整和法律解決方案改善了其市場地位</p>

<p>Over the last two years, there hasn't been a hotter trend on Wall Street than the rise of artificial intelligence (AI). The ability for AI-powered software and systems to become more proficient at their existing tasks, as well as evolve to learn new jobs over time without human intervention, gives this technology a virtually limitless ceiling and broad-based utility in most industries.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在過去兩年裏，華爾街上沒有比人工智能（AI）的崛起更熱門的趨勢。人工智能驅動的軟件和系統在現有任務上變得更加高效，並且能夠隨着時間的推移在沒有人類干預的情況下學習新工作，這使得這項技術幾乎擁有無限的上限和廣泛的應用潛力。</p>
</div><p>Based on one aggressive estimate from the analysts at PwC, the AI revolution can add $15.7 trillion to the global economy by the turn of the decade. This otherworldly addressable market is precisely why AI stocks have soared since the start of 2023.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根據普華永道分析師的一個激進估計，人工智能革命可以在本十年末為全球經濟增加 15.7 萬億美元。這一超乎尋常的可尋址市場正是人工智能股票自 2023 年初以來飆升的原因。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDE5MzAvbW9uZXktbWFuYWdlci1zdG9jay1jaGFydC1tYXJrZXQtbGV2ZWwtMi1kYXRhLWludmVzdC1nZXR0eS5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F801930%2Fmoney-manager-stock-chart-market-level-2-data-invest-getty.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><p>However, not everyone is sold on the idea that AI stocks are still a bargain. Though quite a few billionaire money managers have profited handsomely from the surge in artificial intelligence stocks over the last two years, some are locking in their gains and heading for the sideline, including Stanley Druckenmiller.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，並不是每個人都相信人工智能股票仍然是個便宜的選擇。儘管相當多的億萬富翁資金經理在過去兩年中從人工智能股票的激增中獲利豐厚，但一些人正在鎖定收益並退居二線，包括斯坦利·德魯肯米勒。</p>
</div><p>As of the end of September, Druckenmiller was overseeing almost $3 billion in assets under management at Duquesne Family Office, which was spread across 75 holdings. While there are a select few AI stocks Druckenmiller still fancies, he's been sending Wall Street's two most-popular artificial intelligence juggernauts, <strong>Nvidia</strong>(NVDA 3.69%) and <strong>Palantir Technologies</strong>(PLTR 0.17%), to the grinder.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至九月底，德魯肯米勒在杜克斯家族辦公室管理着近 30 億美元的資產，分散在 75 個持股中。雖然德魯肯米勒仍然看好少數幾隻人工智能股票，但他已經將華爾街兩隻最受歡迎的人工智能巨頭，<strong>Nvidia</strong>（NVDA 3.69%）和 <strong>Palantir Technologies</strong>（PLTR 0.17%），拋售。</p>
</div><h2>Druckenmiller's Duquesne has dumped shares of Nvidia and Palantir</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>德魯肯米勒的杜克斯拋售了 Nvidia 和 Palantir 的股票</h2>
</div><p>When 2024 began, Duquesne held 6,174,940 shares of AI-graphics processing unit (GPU) company Nvidia, which takes into account its historic 10-for-1 stock split completed following the close of trading on June 7. As of Sept. 30, every share had been sold.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>當 2024 年開始時，杜克斯持有 6174940 股人工智能圖形處理單元（GPU）公司 Nvidia 的股票，這考慮到其在 6 月 7 日交易結束後完成的歷史性 10 比 1 股票拆分。截至 9 月 30 日，所有股票均已售出。</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, Druckenmiller's fund sold 728,255 shares of AI-driven data-mining specialist Palantir during the third quarter, which reduced Duquesne Family Office's stake in the company by roughly 95%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>與此同時，德魯肯米勒的基金在第三季度出售了 728255 股人工智能驅動的數據挖掘專家 Palantir 的股票，這使得杜克斯家族辦公室在該公司的股份減少了約 95%。</p>
</div><p>If you're looking for a viable reason why one of Wall Street's most-prominent billionaire investors is dumping shares of two hot AI stocks, simple profit-taking makes sense. Shares of Nvidia and Palantir have respectively gained 172% and 369% year-to-date, as of the closing bell on Dec. 20. These are outsized gains that typically encourage money managers to take some or all of their chips off the table.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果你在尋找一個合理的理由，説明華爾街最知名的億萬富翁投資者為何拋售兩隻熱門人工智能股票，簡單的獲利了結是有道理的。截至 12 月 20 日收盤，Nvidia 和 Palantir 的股票分別上漲了 172% 和 369%。這些都是超出常規的收益，通常會促使資金經理將部分或全部籌碼撤出。</p>
</div><p>The worry for Wall Street and investors is there may be reasons beyond simple profit-taking that have encouraged Druckenmiller and his advisors to abandon ship.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>華爾街和投資者擔心的是，可能還有其他原因促使德魯肯米勒及其顧問放棄這些股票，而不僅僅是簡單的獲利了結。</p>
</div><p>Perhaps the primary concern is that every next-big-thing innovation over the last three decades has followed the same course. Specifically, a period of hype and euphoria followed by a bubble-bursting event. Every big-time innovation since (and including) the advent of the internet in the mid-1990s has needed time to mature.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>或許主要的擔憂是，過去三十年中每一個下一個重大創新都遵循了相同的軌跡。具體來説，是一段炒作和狂熱的時期，隨後是泡沫破裂的事件。自 1990 年代中期互聯網出現以來的每一個重大創新都需要時間來成熟。</p>
</div><p>Despite this same process playing out in a number of next-big-thing trends, including genome decoding, 3D printing, blockchain technology, and the metaverse, investors consistently overestimate how quickly a new technology or innovation will be adopted and gain widespread utility. Even with aggressive investments in data center infrastructure by businesses, most lack well-defined plans to generate a positive return on their AI investment. This likely signals that AI is Wall Street's next bubble waiting to burst.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管這一過程在包括基因解碼、3D 打印、區塊鏈技術和元宇宙在內的多個下一個重大趨勢中都在上演，但投資者始終高估了新技術或創新被採納和獲得廣泛應用的速度。即使企業在數據中心基礎設施上進行了積極投資，大多數企業也缺乏明確的計劃來實現其人工智能投資的正回報。這很可能表明人工智能是華爾街下一個等待破裂的泡沫。</p>
</div><p>Valuation is another front-and-center concern for Nvidia and Palantir. In late June and early July, Nvidia's trailing-12-month (TTM) price-to-sales (P/S) ratio surpassed 40, which is a level consistent with peaks of market-leading businesses prior to the bursting of the dot-com bubble. Palantir's valuation is even more of an eyesore, with the company currently trading at an all-time high multiple of 73 times TTM P/S. History tells us these are not sustainable levels.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>估值是 Nvidia 和 Palantir 面臨的另一個核心問題。在 6 月底和 7 月初，Nvidia 的過去 12 個月（TTM）市銷率（P/S）超過了 40，這一水平與互聯網泡沫破裂前市場領先企業的峯值一致。Palantir 的估值甚至更為刺眼，該公司目前的市銷率高達 73 倍的歷史最高水平。歷史告訴我們，這些不是可持續的水平。</p>
</div><p>Even with Nvidia expected to maintain its market share lead in AI-GPUs and Palantir having no large-scale competition, retracements appear likely for both stocks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>即使 Nvidia 預計將保持其在 AI-GPU 市場的領先地位，而 Palantir 沒有大型競爭對手，但兩隻股票的回調似乎是可能的。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDE5MzAvYmlvdGVjaC1sYWItcmVzZWFyY2gtd2l0aC1tdWx0aXBsZS1waXBldHRlcy1nZXR0eS5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F801930%2Fbiotech-lab-research-with-multiple-pipettes-getty.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Druckenmiller is scooping up shares of this red-hot pharmaceutical stock</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>德魯肯米勒正在大量購買這隻炙手可熱的製藥股票</h2>
</div><p>But while Stanley Druckenmiller was busy overseeing the sale of high-profile AI stocks in Duquesne's investment portfolio, he was piling into one of Wall Street's top-performing pharmaceutical stocks of 2024: <strong>Teva Pharmaceutical Industries</strong>(TEVA 0.54%). Shares of Teva are higher by 112% for the year, with Druckenmiller's fund adding 1,427,950 shares during the September-ended quarter.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但當斯坦利·德魯肯米勒忙於管理杜克斯投資組合中高調的人工智能股票的出售時，他卻在大量購買華爾街 2024 年表現最佳的製藥股票之一：<strong>Teva Pharmaceutical Industries</strong>（TEVA 0.54%）。Teva 的股票今年上漲了 112%，德魯肯米勒的基金在 9 月底的季度中增加了 1427950 股。</p>
</div><p>The previous eight years for Teva weren't the easiest, to say the least. It racked up a lot of debt by overpaying for generic drugmaker Actavis in 2016, and faced litigation from pretty much every U.S. state regarding its role in the opioid crisis. The potential for an unknown/large legal settlement, coupled with the subpar pricing power and sales performance of generic drugs in recent years, heavily weighed on Teva's share price.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>過去八年對 Teva 來説並不容易。它因在 2016 年以高價收購仿製藥製造商 Actavis 而積累了大量債務，並面臨來自幾乎所有美國州的訴訟，涉及其在阿片類藥物危機中的角色。未知/鉅額的法律和解潛力，加上近年來仿製藥的定價能力和銷售表現不佳，嚴重壓制了 Teva 的股價。</p>
</div><p>The good news is that a number of strategic changes and legal resolutions have made Teva one of Wall Street's most sought-after drug stocks to own ahead of 2025.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>好消息是，一些戰略變革和法律解決使 Teva 成為華爾街在 2025 年前最受追捧的藥品股票之一。</p>
</div><p>Arguably the most important upside catalyst has been putting its opioid litigation in the rearview mirror. Last year, the company entered into a $4.25 billion settlement with 48 states, which'll be spread over 13 years. Some of this settlement value includes supplying up to $1.2 billion of generic overdose reversal drug Narcan to states.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>可以説，最重要的上行催化劑是將其阿片類藥物訴訟拋在腦後。去年，該公司與 48 個州達成了 42.5 億美元的和解協議，分攤時間為 13 年。其中一些和解金額包括向各州提供高達 12 億美元的仿製藥過量逆轉藥 Narcan。</p>
</div><p>One of the key strategic moves made by Teva's management team has been to shift its focus to brand-name therapies. Even though novel drugs have a finite period of sales exclusivity, they possess better margins and juicier growth potential than generic drugs. Two of the company's top-selling brand-name drugs, Austedo for tardive dyskinesia and Ajovy for migraine prevention, grew sales by more than 20% in the September-ended quarter (on a constant-currency basis) from the prior-year period.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Teva 管理團隊所做的關鍵戰略舉措之一是將重點轉向品牌藥物。儘管新藥的銷售獨佔期有限，但它們的利潤率更高，增長潛力也比仿製藥更為可觀。該公司兩款暢銷品牌藥物，治療遲發性運動障礙的 Austedo 和用於預防偏頭痛的 Ajovy，在截至九月的季度中，銷售額同比增長超過 20%（按固定匯率計算）。</p>
</div><p>Teva's novel-drug pipeline is showing plenty of promise, as well. The reason shares are on fire in December has to do with the reporting of positive phase 2b data for experimental drug duvakitug as a treatment for patients with moderate-to-severe inflammatory bowel disease. The drug, which was developed in collaboration with <strong>Sanofi</strong>, met its primary endpoints and achieved clinical remission in more patients with ulcerative colitis and Crohn's disease than the placebo. If approved, duvakitug could blow past $1 billion in peak annual sales.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Teva 的新藥管線同樣展現出巨大的潛力。12 月份股價飆升的原因與實驗藥物 duvakitug 在治療中重度炎症性腸病患者的二期 b 階段臨牀試驗中報告的積極數據有關。該藥物與 <strong>賽諾菲</strong> 合作開發，達到了主要終點，並在潰瘍性結腸炎和克羅恩病患者中實現了比安慰劑更多的臨牀緩解。如果獲得批准，duvakitug 的年峯值銷售額可能超過 10 億美元。</p>
</div><p>Furthermore, Teva's leadership has done a standup job of selling noncore assets, lowering operating expenses, and steadily improving the company's financial flexibility. Whereas Teva Pharmaceutical had north of $35 billion in net debt following its acquisition of Actavis in 2016, it now has less than $15.7 billion in net debt on its balance sheet.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，Teva 的領導層在出售非核心資產、降低運營費用和穩步改善公司財務靈活性方面表現出色。在 2016 年收購 Actavis 後，Teva 製藥的淨債務超過 350 億美元，而現在其資產負債表上的淨債務已降至不到 157 億美元。</p>
</div><p>With Teva's long-awaited turnaround finally here, shares remain inexpensive at less than 8 times forecast earnings per share (EPS) for 2025.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>隨着 Teva 期待已久的轉機終於到來，公司的股價仍然便宜，預計 2025 年的每股收益（EPS）不到 8 倍。</p>
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Billionaire Stanley Druckenmiller Is Selling Nvidia and Palantir and Piling Into One of Wall Street's Hottest Drug Stocks Ahead of 2025

- 人工智能 (AI) 的崛起推動了華爾街的熱潮，預計到 2030 年將為全球經濟增加 15.7 萬億美元。  
- 投資者如 Stanley Druckenmiller 已出售 Nvidia 和 Palantir 的股票，因其股價大幅上漲。  
- Druckenmiller 則增持了 Teva 製藥，因其戰略轉型和新藥研發展現出強勁潛力。  

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億萬富翁斯坦利·德魯肯米勒正在出售英偉達和 Palantir，並在 2025 年之前大量買入華爾街最熱門的藥品股票之一