<p>回顧過去以預測股市未來並不總是準確，因為公司在不斷變化，市場也在變化。然而，觀察一隻股票在達到類似估值或增長水平時的表現是有用的，尤其是對於週期性公司。</p>
<p>我最近對 <strong>Meta Platforms</strong>(META -0.59%) 進行了這樣的分析，結果揭示了一些令人驚訝的結果，我認為投資者在進入 2025 年時必須關注這些。</p>
<h2>Meta Platforms 以合理的價格提供穩健的增長</h2>
<p>雖然大多數人不會將 Meta（Facebook 和 Instagram 的母公司）視為週期性業務，但它確實是。Meta 幾乎所有的收入都來自廣告，這與商業情緒的波動密切相關。如果廣告客户認為未來幾個月消費者支出將顯著增加，他們的廣告支出將比經濟衰退時更為積極。</p>
<p>隨着 Meta 的收入以健康的速度增長，顯然廣告商相信消費者將維持其支出水平。這與 2019 年至 2021 年期間的情況類似（除了因 COVID 造成的輕微波動）。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/de7f3980b41465fa451b9151c905e2b5.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/de7f3980b41465fa451b9151c905e2b5.png"/></p>
<p>META 營業收入（季度同比增長）數據來自 YCharts。同比 = 年同比。</p>
<p>儘管 2019 年至 2021 年期間的收入增長率略高，但總體情緒和增長範圍大致相同。此外，從市盈率（P/E）來看，估值也相似。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/2c57376fb808676040c57c6ac5f10348.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/2c57376fb808676040c57c6ac5f10348.png"/></p>
<p>META 市盈率數據來自 YCharts。市盈率 = 市價與每股收益的比率。</p>
<p>因此，Meta 的增長和定價與 2019 年至 2021 年期間相似。那麼它的表現如何呢？相當不錯。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/3a1a63c5fe7e9c780315b70398f97287.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/3a1a63c5fe7e9c780315b70398f97287.png"/></p>
<p>META 數據來自 YCharts。</p>
<p>在這三年中，Meta 的股票獲得了巨大的收益，我不會感到驚訝，如果它在 2025 年表現良好，因為歷史對 Meta 有利。</p>
<h2>Meta 在進入 2025 年時的估值合理</h2>
<p>考慮到 Meta 的股票在過去的估值和收入增長速度相似的情況下有着良好的歷史，投資者對 2025 年感到興奮是有道理的。然而，有幾點需要注意。</p>
<p>對於 2025 年，華爾街分析師預計 Meta 的收入增長約為 15%。這顯著低於 2019 至 2021 年的範圍，但考慮到 Meta 是一家大型公司，這仍然顯示出強勁的增長。</p>
<p>由於 Meta 是一家成熟公司，大多數投資者關注的是利潤增長而非收入增長。2025 年可能會受到影響，因為管理層已經警告投資者，明年基礎設施支出將顯著加速增長。</p>
<p>這主要集中在其人工智能（AI）投資上，因為它需要繼續擴展計算能力，以在這一重要領域爭奪市場份額。儘管如此，華爾街分析師預計 2025 年的每股收益（EPS）增長為 12%，因此增加的支出不會對其收益產生太大影響。</p>
<p>儘管增長放緩和支出增加，Meta Platforms 仍然是市場上最便宜的大型科技股之一。如果將其與其他 “七大奇蹟” 股票（<strong>Nvidia</strong>、<strong>Microsoft</strong>、<strong>Apple</strong>、<strong>Amazon</strong>、<strong>Alphabet</strong> 和 <strong>Tesla</strong>）進行比較，Meta 在使用過去或未來收益估值時是第二便宜的股票。</p>
<p>然而，這並不意味着它的增長緩慢。Meta 的第三季度收入增長在該組中排名第二，展示了 Meta 在強勁增長下的合理價格。</p>
<p>儘管 Meta 的情況與 2019 年至 2021 年期間並不完全相同，但有許多相似之處。再加上 Meta 與許多同行相比的合理定價，我認為這為 2025 年提供了一個能夠帶來可觀回報的股票。因此，Meta 是我在 2025 年最值得購買的股票之一。</p>

META

<p>Meta Platforms 在 2025 年有望實現顯著增長，與 2019 年至 2021 年的表現相似。儘管預計收入增長 15% 和每股收益增長 12%，但由於人工智能投資，公司面臨着不斷上升的基礎設施開支。然而，Meta 仍然是最具性價比的大型科技股之一，僅次於同行的估值。在強勁的收入增長和有利的歷史背景下，Meta 被認為是 2025 年的最佳股票選擇</p>

<p>Looking to the past to predict the future in the stock market isn't always accurate, as companies are constantly changing alongside the broader market. However, it can be useful to see how a stock performed when it reached similar valuation or growth levels, especially with cyclical companies.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>回顧過去以預測股市未來並不總是準確，因為公司在不斷變化，市場也在變化。然而，觀察一隻股票在達到類似估值或增長水平時的表現是有用的，尤其是對於週期性公司。</p>
</div><p>I recently did this with <strong>Meta Platforms</strong>(META -0.59%), and it revealed some incredible results I think investors must pay attention to heading into 2025.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我最近對 <strong>Meta Platforms</strong>(META -0.59%) 進行了這樣的分析，結果揭示了一些令人驚訝的結果，我認為投資者在進入 2025 年時必須關注這些。</p>
</div><h2>Meta Platforms provides solid growth at a reasonable price</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Meta Platforms 以合理的價格提供穩健的增長</h2>
</div><p>While most people wouldn't think of Meta, the parent company of Facebook and Instagram, as a cyclical business, it is. Meta derives nearly all its revenue from advertising, which ebbs and flows with business sentiment. If advertising clients think there will be significant consumer spending in the coming months, they'll advertise more heavily than they would if the economy were in a recession.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>雖然大多數人不會將 Meta（Facebook 和 Instagram 的母公司）視為週期性業務，但它確實是。Meta 幾乎所有的收入都來自廣告，這與商業情緒的波動密切相關。如果廣告客户認為未來幾個月消費者支出將顯著增加，他們的廣告支出將比經濟衰退時更為積極。</p>
</div><p>With Meta's revenue growing at a healthy pace, it's clear that advertisers believe consumers will maintain their spending levels. This is similar to 2019 through 2021 (besides a slight blip thanks to COVID).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>隨着 Meta 的收入以健康的速度增長，顯然廣告商相信消費者將維持其支出水平。這與 2019 年至 2021 年期間的情況類似（除了因 COVID 造成的輕微波動）。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/de7f3980b41465fa451b9151c905e2b5.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/de7f3980b41465fa451b9151c905e2b5.png"/></p>
<p>META Operating Revenue (Quarterly YoY Growth) data by YCharts. YoY = year over year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>META 營業收入（季度同比增長）數據來自 YCharts。同比 = 年同比。</p>
</div><p>Although the revenue growth rate was slightly higher in 2019 through 2021, the general sentiment and range of growth are about the same. Furthermore, the valuation looks similar on a price-to-earnings (P/E) basis.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管 2019 年至 2021 年期間的收入增長率略高，但總體情緒和增長範圍大致相同。此外，從市盈率（P/E）來看，估值也相似。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/2c57376fb808676040c57c6ac5f10348.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/2c57376fb808676040c57c6ac5f10348.png"/></p>
<p>META PE Ratio data by YCharts. PE Ratio = price-to-earnings ratio.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>META 市盈率數據來自 YCharts。市盈率 = 市價與每股收益的比率。</p>
</div><p>So, Meta is growing and priced similarly to what it was from 2019 to 2021. How did it perform? Quite well.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，Meta 的增長和定價與 2019 年至 2021 年期間相似。那麼它的表現如何呢？相當不錯。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/3a1a63c5fe7e9c780315b70398f97287.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/3a1a63c5fe7e9c780315b70398f97287.png"/></p>
<p>META data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>META 數據來自 YCharts。</p>
</div><p>Meta's stock saw massive gains over those three years, and I wouldn't be surprised if it had a solid 2025, as history favors Meta.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在這三年中，Meta 的股票獲得了巨大的收益，我不會感到驚訝，如果它在 2025 年表現良好，因為歷史對 Meta 有利。</p>
</div><h2>Meta is reasonably priced heading into 2025</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Meta 在進入 2025 年時的估值合理</h2>
</div><p>With Meta's stock having a solid history to stand on when the stock was valued and growing revenue at a similar pace as in the past, investors are right to be excited about 2025. However, a few points need to be noted.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>考慮到 Meta 的股票在過去的估值和收入增長速度相似的情況下有着良好的歷史，投資者對 2025 年感到興奮是有道理的。然而，有幾點需要注意。</p>
</div><p>For 2025, Wall Street analysts expect Meta's revenue growth to be about 15%. This is notably slower than the 2019 to 2021 range, but it still shows strong growth, considering Meta is a huge company.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>對於 2025 年，華爾街分析師預計 Meta 的收入增長約為 15%。這顯著低於 2019 至 2021 年的範圍，但考慮到 Meta 是一家大型公司，這仍然顯示出強勁的增長。</p>
</div><p>With Meta being a mature company, most investors focus on profit growth rather than revenue growth. That could take a hit in 2025, as management has already warned investors that there will be a &#34;significant acceleration in infrastructure expense growth next year.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由於 Meta 是一家成熟公司，大多數投資者關注的是利潤增長而非收入增長。2025 年可能會受到影響，因為管理層已經警告投資者，明年基礎設施支出將顯著加速增長。</p>
</div><p>This is largely centered around its artificial intelligence (AI) investments, as it needs to continue building out computing power to capture market share in this important field. Still, Wall Street analysts expect 12% earnings-per-share (EPS) growth in 2025, so the increased spending won't affect its earnings too much.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這主要集中在其人工智能（AI）投資上，因為它需要繼續擴展計算能力，以在這一重要領域爭奪市場份額。儘管如此，華爾街分析師預計 2025 年的每股收益（EPS）增長為 12%，因此增加的支出不會對其收益產生太大影響。</p>
</div><p>Despite a slowdown in growth and increased spending, Meta Platforms is still one of the cheapest big tech stocks on the market. If you compare it to other &#34;Magnificent Seven&#34; stocks ( <strong>Nvidia</strong>, <strong>Microsoft</strong>, <strong>Apple</strong>, <strong>Amazon</strong>, <strong>Alphabet</strong>, and <strong>Tesla</strong>, Meta is the second-cheapest stock when valued using trailing or forward earnings.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管增長放緩和支出增加，Meta Platforms 仍然是市場上最便宜的大型科技股之一。如果將其與其他 “七大奇蹟” 股票（<strong>Nvidia</strong>、<strong>Microsoft</strong>、<strong>Apple</strong>、<strong>Amazon</strong>、<strong>Alphabet</strong> 和 <strong>Tesla</strong>）進行比較，Meta 在使用過去或未來收益估值時是第二便宜的股票。</p>
</div><p>However, that doesn't mean it's growing slowly, either. Meta's Q3 revenue growth was the second-fastest in the group, showcasing Meta's reasonable price for strong growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，這並不意味着它的增長緩慢。Meta 的第三季度收入增長在該組中排名第二，展示了 Meta 在強勁增長下的合理價格。</p>
</div><p>Although the setup for Meta isn't exactly the same as it was from 2019 to 2021, there are many similarities. Throw in that Meta is reasonably priced compared to many of its peers, and I think you have a recipe for a stock that can put up impressive returns in 2025. As a result, Meta is one of my best stocks to buy for 2025.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管 Meta 的情況與 2019 年至 2021 年期間並不完全相同，但有許多相似之處。再加上 Meta 與許多同行相比的合理定價，我認為這為 2025 年提供了一個能夠帶來可觀回報的股票。因此，Meta 是我在 2025 年最值得購買的股票之一。</p>
</div>

History Says Meta Platforms Is Primed for Massive Upside in 2025

- Meta Platforms 的廣告收入與經濟形勢密切相關，顯示出強勁的增長潛力。  
- 儘管預計 2025 年收入增長放緩至 15%，但每股收益仍有 12% 的增長預期。  
- Meta 在大科技股中估值較低，具備良好的投資回報前景。  

歷史表明 Meta Platforms 在 2025 年有望迎來大幅上漲