<p>看到公司在收入或盈利方面創下個人記錄總是對投資者來説是個好兆頭，因為這表明公司正在達到新的高度。然而，也有一些指標你不希望看到公司創下新紀錄，比如債務或估值。</p>
<p><strong>蘋果</strong>(AAPL -1.33%) 最近創下了一個新紀錄，但這並不是一個好理由。我認為這是一個巨大的信號，投資者在 2025 年需要關注，因為這可能導致股價回落。</p>
<h2>蘋果的增長速度已減緩至蝸牛般的步伐</h2>
<p>蘋果長期以來一直是頂級消費品牌之一。其 iPhone 在美國大多數智能手機用户手中，用户還佩戴蘋果的手錶和 AirPods，並使用蘋果電腦。儘管蘋果在一段時間內佔據主導地位，但似乎已經達到了頂峯。</p>
<p>蘋果已經有一段時間沒有推出有意義的新產品或技術，這導致公司變得相當停滯。iPhone 銷售額是公司收入最大的部分，已經有一段時間沒有快速增長。</p>
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>年份</th>
<th>Q4 iPhone 收入</th>
<th>同比增長</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>2024</td>
<td>462 億美元</td>
<td>5.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2023</td>
<td>438 億美元</td>
<td>2.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2022</td>
<td>426 億美元</td>
<td>9.5%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>數據來源：蘋果。注意：Q4 結束於 9 月 30 日左右，但每年有所不同。</p>
<p>中個位數百分比的收入增長是公司達到成熟階段的關鍵指標。除非蘋果推出新產品或提高價格，否則這種增長率不太可能改變。然而，公司的交易情況卻像其收入以中 20% 的速度增長或更高。</p>
<p>儘管沒有顯示出太多增長，蘋果的股票現在已達到十年來的新高估值水平。儘管蘋果的股票在其作為上市公司期間曾以更高的市盈率交易，但這是它在現代狀態下（當 iPhone 銷售佔其收入的顯著部分時）首次以如此高的價格交易。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/0c91c541a144a05d063cc1ca25b0ed99.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/0c91c541a144a05d063cc1ca25b0ed99.png"/></p>
<p>AAPL 市盈率數據來源於 YCharts</p>
<p>我還疊加了蘋果的收入增長率，以顯示蘋果上一次以 40 倍的市盈率估值時，其收入同比增長超過 50%。隨着蘋果的收入現在以更慢的速度增長，這種估值似乎正在失控，因為它無法通過增長來實現更合理的價格。</p>
<p>因此，蘋果可能會通過價格下跌回歸到更歷史正常的估值水平。</p>
<h2>投資者可以預期多大的下跌？</h2>
<p>由於蘋果的增長速度慢於整體市場，沒有理由認為蘋果應該比 <strong>標準普爾 500 指數</strong>(^GSPC -1.07%) 享有溢價。標準普爾 500 指數的市盈率為 25.2，前瞻市盈率為 21.9，如果蘋果繼續保持平淡的增長，我預計蘋果股票會在這些水平附近交易。</p>
<p>華爾街分析師預計，蘋果在 2025 財年（截至 2025 年 9 月）收入將增長 6%，在 2026 財年將增長 8%，因此這種緩慢但穩定的增長預計將在未來幾年繼續。</p>
<p>如果蘋果的股票跌至 30 倍的市盈率，股價需要下降近 30%。25 倍的市盈率（大約是標準普爾 500 的估值）將意味着超過 40% 的下跌。現在，這些確切的下跌可能不會發生，因為蘋果的盈利每個季度都會增長，這將有助於其市盈率下降。然而，可能需要進行一定程度的價格修正，因為多年的增長已經反映在股票中。</p>
<p>沒有太多理由讓人持有蘋果股票而不是其他大型科技公司。它的增長緩慢，估值昂貴。作為投資，它真正的優勢只是它的名字。投資者應該考慮從蘋果股票中轉移出去，因為即使是一些最大的支持者（如沃倫·巴菲特）在過去一年中也開始出售蘋果股票。</p>

蘋果

<p>蘋果的股票估值已達到歷史高點，儘管增長放緩，這預示着未來可能出現下滑。該公司的 iPhone 銷售增長已停滯，目前的市盈率相較於標準普爾 500 指數顯示出高估。分析師預計 2025 財年的收入將温和增長 6%，但如果股票的市盈率迴歸正常，可能面臨 30-40% 的下滑。投資者被建議重新考慮持有蘋果股票，因為其增長前景減弱且競爭加劇</p>

<p>Watching companies set individual records on revenue or earnings is always a great sign for investors, as it indicates the company is reaching new heights. However, there are also some metrics you don't want to see companies setting new records in, like debt or valuation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>看到公司在收入或盈利方面創下個人記錄總是對投資者來説是個好兆頭，因為這表明公司正在達到新的高度。然而，也有一些指標你不希望看到公司創下新紀錄，比如債務或估值。</p>
</div><p><strong>Apple</strong>(AAPL -1.33%) has recently set a new record, but it's not for a good reason. I think this is a huge signal for investors to pay attention to in 2025 because it could result in a retreat for the stock price.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>蘋果</strong>(AAPL -1.33%) 最近創下了一個新紀錄，但這並不是一個好理由。我認為這是一個巨大的信號，投資者在 2025 年需要關注，因為這可能導致股價回落。</p>
</div><h2>Apple's growth has slowed to a snail's pace</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>蘋果的增長速度已減緩至蝸牛般的步伐</h2>
</div><p>Apple has been among the top consumer brands for a long time. Its iPhones are in the hands of the majority of smartphone users in the U.S., who also wear Apple's watches and AirPods, and use Apple computers. While Apple has been dominant for some time, it seems to have peaked.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>蘋果長期以來一直是頂級消費品牌之一。其 iPhone 在美國大多數智能手機用户手中，用户還佩戴蘋果的手錶和 AirPods，並使用蘋果電腦。儘管蘋果在一段時間內佔據主導地位，但似乎已經達到了頂峯。</p>
</div><p>Apple hasn't released meaningful new products or technology for some time, which has caused the company to become fairly stagnant. iPhone sales, the company's largest segment by revenue, haven't increased at a rapid pace for some time.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>蘋果已經有一段時間沒有推出有意義的新產品或技術，這導致公司變得相當停滯。iPhone 銷售額是公司收入最大的部分，已經有一段時間沒有快速增長。</p>
</div><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Year</th>
<th>Q4 iPhone Revenue</th>
<th>YOY Growth</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>2024</td>
<td>$46.2 billion</td>
<td>5.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2023</td>
<td>$43.8 billion</td>
<td>2.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2022</td>
<td>$42.6 billion</td>
<td>9.5%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<div class="lb-trans"><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>年份</th>
<th>Q4 iPhone 收入</th>
<th>同比增長</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>2024</td>
<td>462 億美元</td>
<td>5.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2023</td>
<td>438 億美元</td>
<td>2.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2022</td>
<td>426 億美元</td>
<td>9.5%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div><p>Data source: Apple. Note: Q4 ends around Sept. 30 but is different each year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>數據來源：蘋果。注意：Q4 結束於 9 月 30 日左右，但每年有所不同。</p>
</div><p>Mid-single-digit percentage revenue growth is a key indicator that a company has reached maturity. This growth rate isn't likely to change unless Apple launches a new product or bumps its prices. However, the company is trading as if its revenue is growing a mid-20% pace or more.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中個位數百分比的收入增長是公司達到成熟階段的關鍵指標。除非蘋果推出新產品或提高價格，否則這種增長率不太可能改變。然而，公司的交易情況卻像其收入以中 20% 的速度增長或更高。</p>
</div><p>Apple's stock has now reached a new decade-high valuation level despite not showing much growth. Although Apple's stock has traded for a higher price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio than this during its life as a public company, this is the first time it has traded this high in its modern state (when iPhone sales are a significant chunk of its revenue).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管沒有顯示出太多增長，蘋果的股票現在已達到十年來的新高估值水平。儘管蘋果的股票在其作為上市公司期間曾以更高的市盈率交易，但這是它在現代狀態下（當 iPhone 銷售佔其收入的顯著部分時）首次以如此高的價格交易。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/0c91c541a144a05d063cc1ca25b0ed99.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/0c91c541a144a05d063cc1ca25b0ed99.png"/></p>
<p>AAPL PE Ratio data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>AAPL 市盈率數據來源於 YCharts</p>
</div><p>I've also overlayed Apple's revenue growth rate to show that the previous time Apple was valued around 40 times trailing earnings, its revenue was growing at more than 50% year over year. With Apple's revenue now growing at a much slower rate, this valuation seems to be getting out of hand because it won't be able to grow its way into a more reasonable price tag.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我還疊加了蘋果的收入增長率，以顯示蘋果上一次以 40 倍的市盈率估值時，其收入同比增長超過 50%。隨着蘋果的收入現在以更慢的速度增長，這種估值似乎正在失控，因為它無法通過增長來實現更合理的價格。</p>
</div><p>As a result, Apple probably will return to a more historically normal valuation level through a price decline.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，蘋果可能會通過價格下跌回歸到更歷史正常的估值水平。</p>
</div><h2>How much of a decline could investors expect?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>投資者可以預期多大的下跌？</h2>
</div><p>With Apple growing at a slower pace than the broader market, there's no reason why Apple deserves a premium over the <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong>(^GSPC -1.07%). With the S&amp;P 500 trading at a trailing P/E ratio of 25.2 and a forward P/E of 21.9, I'd expect Apple stock to trade around those levels <em>if</em> it continues to put up mundane growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由於蘋果的增長速度慢於整體市場，沒有理由認為蘋果應該比 <strong>標準普爾 500 指數</strong>(^GSPC -1.07%) 享有溢價。標準普爾 500 指數的市盈率為 25.2，前瞻市盈率為 21.9，如果蘋果繼續保持平淡的增長，我預計蘋果股票會在這些水平附近交易。</p>
</div><p>Wall Street analysts project Apple's revenue will rise 6% in fiscal year 2025 (ending September 2025) and 8% in fiscal year 2026, so this slow but steady growth is expected to continue during the next few years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>華爾街分析師預計，蘋果在 2025 財年（截至 2025 年 9 月）收入將增長 6%，在 2026 財年將增長 8%，因此這種緩慢但穩定的增長預計將在未來幾年繼續。</p>
</div><p>If Apple's stock falls to a P/E ratio of 30, the stock price would need to decline by nearly 30%. A P/E ratio of 25 (around the S&amp;P 500's valuation) would imply a fall of more than 40%. Now, these exact declines probably won't happen because Apple's earnings will grow each quarter, which will help its P/E ratio come down. However, there likely needs to be some amount of price correction, as years of growth have already been baked into the stock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果蘋果的股票跌至 30 倍的市盈率，股價需要下降近 30%。25 倍的市盈率（大約是標準普爾 500 的估值）將意味着超過 40% 的下跌。現在，這些確切的下跌可能不會發生，因為蘋果的盈利每個季度都會增長，這將有助於其市盈率下降。然而，可能需要進行一定程度的價格修正，因為多年的增長已經反映在股票中。</p>
</div><p>There aren't many reasons to own Apple over other big tech companies. It's growing slowly and is expensively valued. All it really has going for it as an investment is its name. Investors should think about moving on from Apple stock, as even some of its biggest proponents (like Warren Buffett) have started selling Apple shares during the past year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>沒有太多理由讓人持有蘋果股票而不是其他大型科技公司。它的增長緩慢，估值昂貴。作為投資，它真正的優勢只是它的名字。投資者應該考慮從蘋果股票中轉移出去，因為即使是一些最大的支持者（如沃倫·巴菲特）在過去一年中也開始出售蘋果股票。</p>
</div>

Apple's Stock Has Reached Historic Levels in One Metric. It's a Clear Warning Sign for 2025.

- 蘋果公司近期創下新紀錄，但並非好消息，可能影響股價。  
- 其 iPhone 銷售增長緩慢，估值已達到十年高點。  
- 投資者應考慮拋售蘋果股票，因其增長乏力且估值過高。

蘋果的股票在某一指標上達到了歷史新高。這是對 2025 年的一個明確警告信號