<p>電子商務先鋒 <strong>亞馬遜</strong>(AMZN -0.18%) 是我考慮隨時購買的少數幾隻股票之一。同時，像沃倫·巴菲特這樣的投資大師堅持認為，即使是偉大的公司也應該在合理的價格下購買。</p>
<p>隨着 2024 年接近尾聲，亞馬遜的股票今年已經上漲超過 46%。該股票的交易價格僅比其兩週前創下的歷史最高點低 6%。在這些飆升的股價下，亞馬遜仍然值得購買嗎，還是應該等股票冷卻後再在 2025 年重新審視？</p>
<h2>亞馬遜股票是否被高估？</h2>
<p>如果你以前聽過這個，請打斷我：亞馬遜的股票看起來很貴。</p>
<p>這家在線零售商和雲計算創新者確實在華爾街達到了一個高位。它是備受推崇的 “七大巨頭” 股票之一，市值為 2.27 萬億美元。股票的市盈率 (P/E) 為 47 倍，自由現金流市盈率 (P/FCF) 為 53 倍。沒有其他方式可以看待這一點——亞馬遜的股票現在並不便宜。</p>
<h2>這隻超越市場的股票從未顯得便宜</h2>
<p>不過，這隻股票似乎從來沒有像個便宜貨。無論你應用什麼指標來分析圖表——亞馬遜的股票大多數時候都顯得昂貴。</p>
<p>市盈率大約是過去 15 年來最低的：</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/b7e6b0c93876adb43df0e261153f09d8.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/b7e6b0c93876adb43df0e261153f09d8.png"/></p>
<p>AMZN 市盈率數據來自 YCharts</p>
<p>從歷史角度來看，現金流比率也很低。從這個角度看，亞馬遜的股票在 2008-2009 年次貸危機後和 2010 年代中期雲計算部門盈利時顯得可負擔，但亞馬遜在 2013 年和 2021 年也耗盡了現金利潤。數據中心設備、一流的運輸服務和升級的總部可能很昂貴。</p>
<p>最終，亞馬遜過去 15 年的平均自由現金流市盈率 (P/FCF) 為 108：</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/682b41686e6e418753203af36fe1a8b2.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/682b41686e6e418753203af36fe1a8b2.png"/></p>
<p>AMZN 自由現金流市盈率數據來自 YCharts</p>
<p>而我真的不需要提醒你，這隻股票無論如何都提供了卓越的回報，對吧？<strong>標準普爾 500 指數</strong>(^GSPC -0.24%) 在我強調的 15 年期間上漲了 424%，而亞馬遜則以 3070% 的漲幅遙遙領先：</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/382919f13c810aeaad27b009e8e4f798.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/382919f13c810aeaad27b009e8e4f798.png"/></p>
<p>AMZN 數據來自 YCharts</p>
<h2>“完美時機” 是真實存在的。沒有人知道如何實現它。</h2>
<p>我同意，當你抓住了購買特定股票的完美時機時，確實會有所不同。如果你在 2009 年 6 月的正確日子購買了亞馬遜的股票，而不是六個月後，你的回報將是 5550%。這是一個更好的結果。</p>
<p>但沒有人知道如何準確找到這些完美的買入日期。沃倫·巴菲特是第一個承認他無法預測 “股票市場在接下來的六個月、下一年或接下來的兩年會發生什麼” 的人。</p>
<p>這種不確定性適用於整個市場以及每隻個股。任何投資者能做的就是在看似合理的時候購買優秀公司的股票，然後讓基礎業務在長期內提供盈利增長和股東回報。這對像巴菲特這樣的億萬富翁來説已經足夠好，對我來説也完全可以。你也應該考慮類似的方法。</p>
<h2>是的，你今天可以購買亞馬遜</h2>
<p>也許現在不是購買亞馬遜股票的最佳時機。但這也不是一個_糟糕_的時機。</p>
<p>展望未來，亞馬遜應該會受益於更強勁的經濟、持續的人工智能 (AI) 熱潮以及其最近推出的無人機配送系統。我説的是一家擁有靈活商業計劃的世界級創新者，儘管股票可能永遠顯得不便宜，但仍然在多年中提供了豐厚的回報。</p>
<p>所以你不應該全力以赴，孤注一擲，或把你所有的積蓄都投入到亞馬遜股票中。然而，如果你還沒有開始，可以考慮以適度的方式建立亞馬遜的持倉，使用分批購買或自動定投等價格緩解技術。</p>
<p>前方的道路可能會崎嶇不平，但你不想在一旁觀看，亞馬遜繼續為其股東提供超越市場的長期回報。</p>

亞馬遜

<p>亞馬遜的股票在 2024 年上漲超過 46%，交易價格僅比歷史最高點低 6%。儘管其估值較高，市盈率為 47，市現率為 53，但該股票仍然是一個強勁的長期投資。專家建議，雖然現在可能不是最佳買入時機，但通過定投建立一個適度的頭寸可能會帶來好處。預計亞馬遜將因經濟增長、人工智能進步和新配送系統而蓬勃發展，成為尋求長期收益的投資者的潛在買入對象</p>

<p>E-commerce pioneer <strong>Amazon</strong>(AMZN -0.18%) belongs in the small handful of stocks I'd consider buying at any time. At the same time, master investors like Warren Buffett insist that even great companies should be bought only at reasonable prices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>電子商務先鋒 <strong>亞馬遜</strong>(AMZN -0.18%) 是我考慮隨時購買的少數幾隻股票之一。同時，像沃倫·巴菲特這樣的投資大師堅持認為，即使是偉大的公司也應該在合理的價格下購買。</p>
</div><p>As 2024 winds down, Amazon shares have gained more than 46% this year. The stock trades just 6% below its all-time high, which was set two weeks ago. Is Amazon still a buy at these soaring share prices, or should you let the stock cool down before taking another look in 2025?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>隨着 2024 年接近尾聲，亞馬遜的股票今年已經上漲超過 46%。該股票的交易價格僅比其兩週前創下的歷史最高點低 6%。在這些飆升的股價下，亞馬遜仍然值得購買嗎，還是應該等股票冷卻後再在 2025 年重新審視？</p>
</div><h2>Is Amazon stock overpriced?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>亞馬遜股票是否被高估？</h2>
</div><p>Stop me if you've heard this before: Amazon's stock looks expensive.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果你以前聽過這個，請打斷我：亞馬遜的股票看起來很貴。</p>
</div><p>The online retailer and cloud computing innovator has indeed reached a lofty perch on Wall Street. It's one of the vaunted &#34;Magnificent Seven&#34; stocks, with a $2.27 trillion market cap. Shares are changing hands at 47 times earnings (P/E) and 53 times free cash flow (P/FCF). There's just no other way to look at it -- Amazon's stock isn't cheap right now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這家在線零售商和雲計算創新者確實在華爾街達到了一個高位。它是備受推崇的 “七大巨頭” 股票之一，市值為 2.27 萬億美元。股票的市盈率 (P/E) 為 47 倍，自由現金流市盈率 (P/FCF) 為 53 倍。沒有其他方式可以看待這一點——亞馬遜的股票現在並不便宜。</p>
</div><h2>This market-beating stock never looks cheap</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>這隻超越市場的股票從未顯得便宜</h2>
</div><p>Then again, this stock never seems like a bargain. It doesn't really matter what metrics you apply to the chart -- Amazon shares feel expensive most of the time.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不過，這隻股票似乎從來沒有像個便宜貨。無論你應用什麼指標來分析圖表——亞馬遜的股票大多數時候都顯得昂貴。</p>
</div><p>The chunky price-to-earnings ratio is about the lowest it's been in the last 15 years:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市盈率大約是過去 15 年來最低的：</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/b7e6b0c93876adb43df0e261153f09d8.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/b7e6b0c93876adb43df0e261153f09d8.png"/></p>
<p>AMZN PE Ratio data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>AMZN 市盈率數據來自 YCharts</p>
</div><p>The cash flow ratio is also low from a historical perspective. In this view, Amazon stock felt affordable after the subprime meltdown of 2008-2009 and again as the cloud computing segment turned profitable in the mid-2010s, but Amazon also depleted its cash profits in 2013 and 2021. Data center equipment, world-class shipping services, and upgraded headquarters can be expensive.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>從歷史角度來看，現金流比率也很低。從這個角度看，亞馬遜的股票在 2008-2009 年次貸危機後和 2010 年代中期雲計算部門盈利時顯得可負擔，但亞馬遜在 2013 年和 2021 年也耗盡了現金利潤。數據中心設備、一流的運輸服務和升級的總部可能很昂貴。</p>
</div><p>In the end, Amazon's average P/FCF over the last decade and a half stands at 108:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最終，亞馬遜過去 15 年的平均自由現金流市盈率 (P/FCF) 為 108：</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/682b41686e6e418753203af36fe1a8b2.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/682b41686e6e418753203af36fe1a8b2.png"/></p>
<p>AMZN Price to Free Cash Flow data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>AMZN 自由現金流市盈率數據來自 YCharts</p>
</div><p>And I really don't have to remind you that the stock delivered exceptional returns anyway, right? The <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong>(^GSPC -0.24%) rose 424% in the 15-year period I've highlighted, but Amazon raced ahead with a 3,070% gain:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>而我真的不需要提醒你，這隻股票無論如何都提供了卓越的回報，對吧？<strong>標準普爾 500 指數</strong>(^GSPC -0.24%) 在我強調的 15 年期間上漲了 424%，而亞馬遜則以 3070% 的漲幅遙遙領先：</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/382919f13c810aeaad27b009e8e4f798.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/382919f13c810aeaad27b009e8e4f798.png"/></p>
<p>AMZN data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>AMZN 數據來自 YCharts</p>
</div><h2>&#34;Perfect timing&#34; is a real thing. Nobody knows how to achieve it.</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>“完美時機” 是真實存在的。沒有人知道如何實現它。</h2>
</div><p>I agree that it makes a difference when you nail the perfect time to buy any particular stock. If you grabbed Amazon shares on the right day in June 2009 instead of six months later, you'd have a 5,550% return in your pocket instead. That's a much better result.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我同意，當你抓住了購買特定股票的完美時機時，確實會有所不同。如果你在 2009 年 6 月的正確日子購買了亞馬遜的股票，而不是六個月後，你的回報將是 5550%。這是一個更好的結果。</p>
</div><p>But nobody knows how to pinpoint those perfect buy-in dates. Warren Buffett is the first to admit that he can't see &#34;what the stock market is going to do in the next six months, or the next year, or the next two.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但沒有人知道如何準確找到這些完美的買入日期。沃倫·巴菲特是第一個承認他無法預測 “股票市場在接下來的六個月、下一年或接下來的兩年會發生什麼” 的人。</p>
</div><p>That uncertainty applies to the market as a whole and to each individual stock. The best any investor can do is pick up shares of great companies when it seems to make sense, then let the underlying business deliver profitable growth and shareholder returns in the long run. That's good enough for billionaires like Buffett, and more than fine for me. You should consider a similar approach, too.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這種不確定性適用於整個市場以及每隻個股。任何投資者能做的就是在看似合理的時候購買優秀公司的股票，然後讓基礎業務在長期內提供盈利增長和股東回報。這對像巴菲特這樣的億萬富翁來説已經足夠好，對我來説也完全可以。你也應該考慮類似的方法。</p>
</div><h2>Yes, you can buy Amazon today</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>是的，你今天可以購買亞馬遜</h2>
</div><p>Maybe this isn't the best time ever to buy Amazon stock. But it's also not a <em>bad</em> time.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>也許現在不是購買亞馬遜股票的最佳時機。但這也不是一個_糟糕_的時機。</p>
</div><p>Looking ahead, Amazon should benefit from a stronger economy, the continued artificial intelligence (AI) boom, and its recently launched drone delivery system. I'm talking about a world-class innovator with a flexible business plan, and the stock may never seem affordable but still provides winning returns over the years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>展望未來，亞馬遜應該會受益於更強勁的經濟、持續的人工智能 (AI) 熱潮以及其最近推出的無人機配送系統。我説的是一家擁有靈活商業計劃的世界級創新者，儘管股票可能永遠顯得不便宜，但仍然在多年中提供了豐厚的回報。</p>
</div><p>So you shouldn't back up the truck, bet the farm, or put your whole nest egg into Amazon stock today. However, you might want to start a modest Amazon position if you haven't yet, using price-mitigating techniques such as buying in thirds or running an automated dollar-cost averaging plan.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>所以你不應該全力以赴，孤注一擲，或把你所有的積蓄都投入到亞馬遜股票中。然而，如果你還沒有開始，可以考慮以適度的方式建立亞馬遜的持倉，使用分批購買或自動定投等價格緩解技術。</p>
</div><p>The road ahead may be bumpy, but you don't want to watch from the sidelines as Amazon keeps treating its shareholders to market-beating returns in the long haul.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>前方的道路可能會崎嶇不平，但你不想在一旁觀看，亞馬遜繼續為其股東提供超越市場的長期回報。</p>
</div>

Is Amazon a Buy, Sell, or Hold in 2025?

- 亞馬遜股票在 2024 年上漲超過 46%，接近歷史高點。  
- 目前市盈率為 47 倍，自 2008 年以來相對較低。  
- 儘管價格高昂，亞馬遜仍有潛力，建議逐步建倉。

亞馬遜在 2025 年是應該買入、賣出還是持有？