<p>如果你曾經在 <strong>麥當勞</strong>(MCD 0.10%) 遇到冰淇淋機壞了的煩惱，那麼你就能理解 2024 年持有該公司股票的投資者所面臨的頭痛。令人失望的增長和疲弱的收益使得股票在一個狹窄的交易區間內波動，過去一年下跌約 1%，同時明顯落後於大盤。</p>
<p>這家以標誌性的金色拱門而聞名的餐飲巨頭是否失去了一些光彩，還是在 2025 年有理由讓投資者重新愛上麥當勞？</p>
<p>讓我們討論一下現在該如何處理這隻股票。</p>
<h2><strong>現在買入或持有麥當勞股票的理由</strong></h2>
<p>麥當勞在 100 多個國家擁有超過 40,000 家餐廳，是全球最具識別度的消費品牌之一。這家快餐先鋒不僅以提供高質量、價格合理的餐食而聞名，還在其輝煌的歷史中為股東帶來了豐厚的回報。實際上，過去 10 年該股票上漲了 293%。</p>
<p>儘管如此，最近的股價疲軟反映出一些不盡如人意的財務趨勢，至少與 2023 年的強勁表現相比。截止到 2024 年 9 月 30 日的前九個月，整體收入同比僅增長 2%，而調整後的每股收益（EPS）下降了 1%。一些持續的成本壓力影響了運營利潤率，而收入的疲軟反映出國際市場的可比銷售額下降，抵消了美國在最後一個季度 0.3% 的增長。</p>
<p>好消息是，預計根據麥當勞的 “加速拱門” 戰略，這些關鍵數字將有所改善。該戰略專注於更新營銷以提升品牌吸引力和客户參與度，同時保持核心菜單項目的質量。</p>
<p>此外，該計劃還加倍強調麥當勞成功的 “4D” 策略，旨在推動可持續增長：數字能力、得來速運營、外賣選項和新市場的發展。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDI0NTEvbWNkb25hbGRzLXN0b2NrLW91dGxvb2stMjAyNS5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDI0NTEvbWNkb25hbGRzLXN0b2NrLW91dGxvb2stMjAyNS5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<p>根據華爾街的共識，2025 年預計將是麥當勞增長反彈的一年，預計收入將增長 3.8%，調整後的每股收益將增長 6.8%，達到 12.61 美元。</p>
<p>最終，對公司能夠恢復長期增長軌跡並實現更高收益充滿信心的投資者，有充分理由在長期持有該股票。</p>
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>指標</th>
<th>2024 年預測</th>
<th>2025 年預測</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>收入</td>
<td>261 億美元</td>
<td>270 億美元</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>收入增長（同比）</td>
<td>2.2%</td>
<td>3.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>每股收益</td>
<td>11.81 美元</td>
<td>12.61 美元</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>每股收益增長（同比）</td>
<td>(1.1%)</td>
<td>6.8%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>數據來源：Yahoo Finance。同比 = 年比年。</p>
<h2><strong>現在賣出麥當勞股票的理由</strong></h2>
<p>考慮到這家餐飲連鎖店既是數百萬忠實顧客的日常就餐選擇，又是偶爾的奢侈享受，很難想象沒有麥當勞的世界。從各方面來看，這家企業具備在未來幾十年內蓬勃發展的所有條件。然而，在考慮股票作為投資時，重要的是要批判性地審視它，並思考可能出現的問題。</p>
<p>麥當勞在未來幾年面臨的一個挑戰是，在競爭激烈的行業環境中保持和鞏固其市場份額。如今，消費者在快餐類別中有更多選擇，包括新概念，滿足對更健康食品選擇的需求。</p>
<p>另一個考慮因素是麥當勞的估值，股票的交易價格約為 2024 年共識每股收益的 25 倍，作為前瞻性市盈率。這一水平幾乎與公司收益倍數的 10 年平均水平相匹配，表明市場對該股票的估值是合理的。令人擔憂的是，考慮到低個位數範圍內的温和增長前景，目前尚不清楚麥當勞的股票是否值得在當前環境中獲得更高的收益溢價。</p>
<p>相信麥當勞已經過了其增長巔峯，並將在與 <strong>Chipotle</strong> 或新興競爭者如 <strong>Cava Group</strong> 和 <strong>Sweetgreen</strong> 的競爭中掙扎的投資者，可能會考慮現在就拋售該股票。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/1e300ff432dd390d82c614db15cd1086.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/1e300ff432dd390d82c614db15cd1086.png"/></p>
<p>MCD 市盈率（前瞻性）數據來源於 YCharts</p>
<h2>決策：觀望策略是明智的選擇</h2>
<p>我也認為接下來的幾個季度對麥當勞來説至關重要，以證明它能夠恢復到更強勁的財務業績。市場將密切關注可比銷售數據的改善和國際業務的復甦作為關鍵監測點。</p>
<p>鑑於近期的疲軟和持續的不確定性，觀望策略是明智的，直到 2025 年的趨勢變得更加清晰。雖然長期股東可能會繼續持有他們的頭寸，但投資者可能會在股市的其他地方找到更具吸引力的機會。</p>

麥當勞

<p>麥當勞的股票在 2024 年面臨挑戰，下降了 1%，且收益令人失望。然而，2025 年的預測顯示出反彈的跡象，預計收入增長為 3.8%，每股收益增長為 6.8%。該公司的 “加速拱門” 戰略旨在提升品牌吸引力和客户參與度。儘管一些投資者可能因競爭壓力和估值擔憂而考慮出售，但建議採取觀望態度，因為市場在關注未來幾個季度的財務改善</p>

<p>If you've ever faced the frustration of finding the ice cream machine out of order at <strong>McDonald's</strong>(MCD 0.10%), you'll understand the headache investors holding the company's stock faced in 2024. Disappointing growth and weak earnings have kept shares in a tight trading range, down about 1% over the past year, while sharply underperforming the broader market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果你曾經在 <strong>麥當勞</strong>(MCD 0.10%) 遇到冰淇淋機壞了的煩惱，那麼你就能理解 2024 年持有該公司股票的投資者所面臨的頭痛。令人失望的增長和疲弱的收益使得股票在一個狹窄的交易區間內波動，過去一年下跌約 1%，同時明顯落後於大盤。</p>
</div><p>Has this restaurant giant known for its iconic Golden Arches lost some of its luster, or are there reasons for investors in 2025 to start lovin' McDonald's again?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這家以標誌性的金色拱門而聞名的餐飲巨頭是否失去了一些光彩，還是在 2025 年有理由讓投資者重新愛上麥當勞？</p>
</div><p>Let's discuss what to do with the stock now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>讓我們討論一下現在該如何處理這隻股票。</p>
</div><h2><strong>The case to buy or hold McDonald's stock now</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>現在買入或持有麥當勞股票的理由</strong></h2>
</div><p>With more than 40,000 restaurant locations in over 100 countries, McDonald's is one of the most recognizable consumer brands worldwide. The fast-food pioneer has found success by not only building a reputation for serving quality meals at an affordable price, but also delivering spectacular shareholder returns over its storied history. Indeed, the stock is up 293% in the past 10 years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>麥當勞在 100 多個國家擁有超過 40,000 家餐廳，是全球最具識別度的消費品牌之一。這家快餐先鋒不僅以提供高質量、價格合理的餐食而聞名，還在其輝煌的歷史中為股東帶來了豐厚的回報。實際上，過去 10 年該股票上漲了 293%。</p>
</div><p>That being said, the recent share price weakness reflects some underwhelming financial trends, at least in comparison to a stronger 2023. With results through the first nine months of 2024 for the period ended Sept. 30, total revenue was up just 2% year over year, as adjusted earnings per share (EPS) declined by -1%. Some ongoing cost pressures have impacted operating margins while the muted top line reflects a drop in international market comparable sales, outweighing a 0.3% growth in the U.S. during the last quarter.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管如此，最近的股價疲軟反映出一些不盡如人意的財務趨勢，至少與 2023 年的強勁表現相比。截止到 2024 年 9 月 30 日的前九個月，整體收入同比僅增長 2%，而調整後的每股收益（EPS）下降了 1%。一些持續的成本壓力影響了運營利潤率，而收入的疲軟反映出國際市場的可比銷售額下降，抵消了美國在最後一個季度 0.3% 的增長。</p>
</div><p>Favorably, there is an expectation for an improvement in these headline numbers based on McDonald's &#34;Accelerating the Arches&#34; strategy. The effort focuses on refreshed marketing to boost brand appeal and customer engagement while maintaining the quality of core menu items.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>好消息是，預計根據麥當勞的 “加速拱門” 戰略，這些關鍵數字將有所改善。該戰略專注於更新營銷以提升品牌吸引力和客户參與度，同時保持核心菜單項目的質量。</p>
</div><p>Additionally, the plan doubles down on McDonald's &#34;4Ds&#34; of success, all aimed at propelling sustainable growth: digital capabilities, drive-thru operations, delivery options, and development of new markets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，該計劃還加倍強調麥當勞成功的 “4D” 策略，旨在推動可持續增長：數字能力、得來速運營、外賣選項和新市場的發展。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDI0NTEvbWNkb25hbGRzLXN0b2NrLW91dGxvb2stMjAyNS5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F802451%2Fmcdonalds-stock-outlook-2025.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><p>According to Wall Street consensus, 2025 is poised to mark a growth rebound for McDonald's, with projections showing a 3.8% increase in revenue as adjusted EPS strengthens by 6.8% to reach $12.61.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根據華爾街的共識，2025 年預計將是麥當勞增長反彈的一年，預計收入將增長 3.8%，調整後的每股收益將增長 6.8%，達到 12.61 美元。</p>
</div><p>Ultimately, investors confident in the company's ability to reclaim its long-term growth trajectory and deliver higher earnings have a great reason to buy and hold the stock for the long run.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最終，對公司能夠恢復長期增長軌跡並實現更高收益充滿信心的投資者，有充分理由在長期持有該股票。</p>
</div><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Metric</th>
<th>2024 Estimate</th>
<th>2025 Estimate</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Revenue</td>
<td>$26.1 billion</td>
<td>$27 billion</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Revenue growth (YOY)</td>
<td>2.2%</td>
<td>3.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>EPS</td>
<td>$11.81</td>
<td>$12.61</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>EPS growth (YOY)</td>
<td>(1.1%)</td>
<td>6.8%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<div class="lb-trans"><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>指標</th>
<th>2024 年預測</th>
<th>2025 年預測</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>收入</td>
<td>261 億美元</td>
<td>270 億美元</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>收入增長（同比）</td>
<td>2.2%</td>
<td>3.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>每股收益</td>
<td>11.81 美元</td>
<td>12.61 美元</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>每股收益增長（同比）</td>
<td>(1.1%)</td>
<td>6.8%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div><p>Data source: Yahoo Finance. YOY = year over year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>數據來源：Yahoo Finance。同比 = 年比年。</p>
</div><h2><strong>The case to sell McDonald's stock now</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>現在賣出麥當勞股票的理由</strong></h2>
</div><p>It's difficult to envision a world without McDonald's, considering how the restaurant chain serves as both a regular dining staple and an occasional indulgence for millions of loyal customers worldwide. By all indications, the business has all the pieces in place to thrive for many decades to come. Still, when considering a stock as an investment, it's important to examine it critically and think about what could go wrong.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>考慮到這家餐飲連鎖店既是數百萬忠實顧客的日常就餐選擇，又是偶爾的奢侈享受，很難想象沒有麥當勞的世界。從各方面來看，這家企業具備在未來幾十年內蓬勃發展的所有條件。然而，在考慮股票作為投資時，重要的是要批判性地審視它，並思考可能出現的問題。</p>
</div><p>One challenge for McDonald's over the next several years will be to maintain and consolidate its market share in what is an intensely competitive industry landscape. Consumers today have more options than ever in the quick-service restaurant category, including new concepts capitalizing on the demand for healthier food options.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>麥當勞在未來幾年面臨的一個挑戰是，在競爭激烈的行業環境中保持和鞏固其市場份額。如今，消費者在快餐類別中有更多選擇，包括新概念，滿足對更健康食品選擇的需求。</p>
</div><p>Another consideration is McDonald's valuation, with shares trading around 25 times its 2024 consensus EPS as a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. This level nearly matches the 10-year average for the company's earnings multiple, suggesting the stock is fairly valued by the market. The concern is that given the modest growth outlook in the low-single-digit range, it's unclear whether McDonald's stock deserves a larger earnings premium in the current environment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另一個考慮因素是麥當勞的估值，股票的交易價格約為 2024 年共識每股收益的 25 倍，作為前瞻性市盈率。這一水平幾乎與公司收益倍數的 10 年平均水平相匹配，表明市場對該股票的估值是合理的。令人擔憂的是，考慮到低個位數範圍內的温和增長前景，目前尚不清楚麥當勞的股票是否值得在當前環境中獲得更高的收益溢價。</p>
</div><p>Investors who believe McDonald's is past its peak growth and will struggle to remain relevant next to higher-growth industry peers like <strong>Chipotle</strong> or emerging players such as <strong>Cava Group</strong> and <strong>Sweetgreen</strong> could consider moving on from the stock now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>相信麥當勞已經過了其增長巔峯，並將在與 <strong>Chipotle</strong> 或新興競爭者如 <strong>Cava Group</strong> 和 <strong>Sweetgreen</strong> 的競爭中掙扎的投資者，可能會考慮現在就拋售該股票。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/1e300ff432dd390d82c614db15cd1086.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/1e300ff432dd390d82c614db15cd1086.png"/></p>
<p>MCD PE Ratio (Forward) data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>MCD 市盈率（前瞻性）數據來源於 YCharts</p>
</div><h2>The decision: A wait-and-see approach makes sense</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>決策：觀望策略是明智的選擇</h2>
</div><p>I also believe the next few quarters will be critical for McDonald's to demonstrate it can get back on track with stronger financial results. The market will be watching closely for improved comparable sales data and a recovery in the international business as key monitoring points.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我也認為接下來的幾個季度對麥當勞來説至關重要，以證明它能夠恢復到更強勁的財務業績。市場將密切關注可比銷售數據的改善和國際業務的復甦作為關鍵監測點。</p>
</div><p>Given the recent weakness and lingering uncertainties, a wait-and-see approach makes sense until 2025 trends become clearer. While longtime shareholders can likely continue holding their positions, investors might find more compelling opportunities elsewhere in the stock market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>鑑於近期的疲軟和持續的不確定性，觀望策略是明智的，直到 2025 年的趨勢變得更加清晰。雖然長期股東可能會繼續持有他們的頭寸，但投資者可能會在股市的其他地方找到更具吸引力的機會。</p>
</div>

麥當勞的股票在 2025 年是應該買入、賣出還是持有？