<p>毫無疑問，<strong>亞馬遜</strong> 是現代時代表現最好的股票之一，自 1997 年上市以來上漲了大約 300,000%。未來 30 年可能不會如此豐厚，但由於該公司進軍雲計算領域，這家電子商務巨頭仍然是目前市場上最具前景的投資機會之一。</p>
<p>不過，這裏還有一隻更值得考慮加入你投資組合的成長股，那就是 <strong>優步科技</strong>（UBER 2.25%）。以下是原因。</p>
<h2>無論優步是原因還是結果，趨勢都很樂觀</h2>
<p>儘管創始人特拉維斯·卡拉尼克和加雷特·坎普並沒有真正發明打車應用的概念，但他們被認為是將這一想法帶入主流的人。消費者對這一概念的接受度也在不斷提高。優步第三季度的收入增長達 20%，延續了已確立的趨勢。而且它的盈利能力也在不斷提升。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/93c71c8c9fc5986b9b80633d2478ea50.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/93c71c8c9fc5986b9b80633d2478ea50.png"/></p>
<p>優步季度收入數據來源於 YCharts</p>
<p>分析師預計未來的收入和利潤增長將持續。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDI4MjYvMDEwMzI0LXViZXItcmVzdWx0cy5wbmcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDI4MjYvMDEwMzI0LXViZXItcmVzdWx0cy5wbmcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>數據來源：StockAnalysis.com。圖表由作者製作。</p>
<p>然而，這一前進的進展只是持有優步股份的看漲論點的一部分，甚至不是最重要的部分。更重要的是，持續的銷售和盈利增長背後的文化原因。也就是説，汽車擁有率正在下降。獲得駕駛執照的情況也是如此。</p>
<p>美國聯邦公路管理局的數據通過法律信息網站 Consumer Shield 進一步闡明瞭這一情況，顯示國內汽車註冊數量從 2001 年的峯值 1.38 億減少到 2022 年的近 100 百萬的多年來低點。COVID-19 疫情及其後果至少在一定程度上導致了這一領域的近期疲軟。但這一數字在疫情爆發之前就已經在持續下降。</p>
<p>你可能會看到或聽到不同的數據。特別是，聯邦公路管理局常被引用的數據顯示，截至 2022 年，美國道路上實際上有 2.834 億輛註冊車輛。然而，這一統計數字包括公共汽車和重型卡車，這些車輛通常由政府和企業用於商業或公共服務目的。</p>
<p>人們車道上的車輛數量也相對停滯不前……至少在美國家庭的比例上。Consumer Shield 補充道，截至 2022 年，典型的美國家庭擁有 1.83 輛汽車，延續了自 2001 年 1.89 輛的輕微下降趨勢。</p>
<p>在優步擴展的其他國家也可以看到類似的動態。</p>
<h2>年輕人隨着年齡的增長正在逐漸接受不擁有汽車的生活方式</h2>
<p>這種微弱的下降趨勢似乎不太可能在短期內逆轉。最近由汽車共享網絡 Zipcar 進行的一項調查顯示，超過三分之一的美國人考慮到 2030 年不再擁有任何車輛。事實上，近五分之一的受訪者表示，他們非常認真地考慮擺脱汽車，轉而使用替代交通方式。</p>
<p>其他數據也強調了這種日益增長的興趣缺失。例如，Hedges Company 預測，儘管經濟良好且後疫情穩定，2023 年美國輕型車輛（轎車、SUV，而非商用卡車）的總銷售量預計將達到 1500 萬輛。這一數字高於 2023 年的 1550 萬輛，但仍明顯低於 2016 年的 1740 萬輛峯值。</p>
<p>年輕消費者對車輛擁有的興趣低於他們的父母……甚至對獲得駕駛執照的興趣也在下降。美國交通部的數據表明，截至 2022 年，只有大約四分之一的 16 歲美國人持有駕駛執照，而 1983 年這一年齡組的持證比例為一半。即使是 18 歲駕駛員的數量也從當時的 80% 下降到現在的 60%。</p>
<p>造成這種曾經不太可能的動態的主要原因是什麼？成本是一個原因；新車的平均月供現在超過 700 美元。缺乏需求是另一個原因。年輕一代完全習慣於通過計算機尋找娛樂和維持社交生活。像優步這樣的打車服務使得在這種日益普遍的環境中生活和運作成為可能。</p>
<p>而且，這種動態在世界其他地方也很明顯。</p>
<h2>兩隻股票都不錯，但優步的股票更好</h2>
<p>這並不是説在此時擁有亞馬遜股票是個錯誤。它仍然是一個很好的投資。事實上，在許多方面，亞馬遜也受益於推動優步增長的同一基礎動態。那就是越來越多的消費者對不擁有或甚至不駕駛車輛感到滿意。這些人同樣樂於在線購物，並讓亞馬遜想辦法將產品送到他們的家門口。（與此同時，亞馬遜的雲計算業務正在經歷不同的增長趨勢。）</p>
<p>不過，在這兩個股票中，優步無疑是更具前景的投資，因為許多投資者仍然低估了其文化順風的強度以及這種趨勢可能持續的時間。為了提供一個視角，市場研究機構 Future Market Insight 認為，全球打車市場預計將在 2034 年前以 15.4% 的年均增速增長。</p>
<p>市場領導者優步有望獲得至少其應有的市場份額。</p>

優步

<p>這篇文章討論了優步科技作為成長股與亞馬遜的潛力比較。儘管亞馬遜自上市以來表現出色，但優步正以 20% 的收入增長和日益增加的盈利能力獲得關注。年輕一代對汽車擁有權和駕駛興趣的下降支持了優步的商業模式。分析師預測優步將持續增長，使其成為與亞馬遜並列的有吸引力的投資選擇，而亞馬遜也受益於消費者行為的變化</p>

<p>There are no two ways about it. <strong>Amazon</strong> is one of the modern era's best-performing stocks, up roughly 300,000% since its 1997 public offering. The next 30 years aren't likely to be nearly as rewarding, but thanks to the company's foray into cloud computing, the e-commerce giant is still one of the market's most promising investment prospects at this time.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>毫無疑問，<strong>亞馬遜</strong> 是現代時代表現最好的股票之一，自 1997 年上市以來上漲了大約 300,000%。未來 30 年可能不會如此豐厚，但由於該公司進軍雲計算領域，這家電子商務巨頭仍然是目前市場上最具前景的投資機會之一。</p>
</div><p>There's a better growth stock to consider adding to your portfolio here, however. That's <strong>Uber Technologies</strong>(UBER 2.25%). Here's why.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不過，這裏還有一隻更值得考慮加入你投資組合的成長股，那就是 <strong>優步科技</strong>（UBER 2.25%）。以下是原因。</p>
</div><h2>Whether Uber is the cause or the result, the trends are promising</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>無論優步是原因還是結果，趨勢都很樂觀</h2>
</div><p>Although founders Travis Kalanick and Garrett Camp didn't exactly invent the premise of ride-hailing apps, they are fairly credited with bringing the idea into the mainstream. It's still catching on with consumers, too. Uber's third-quarter revenue growth of 20% extends well-established trends. And it's increasingly profitable.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管創始人特拉維斯·卡拉尼克和加雷特·坎普並沒有真正發明打車應用的概念，但他們被認為是將這一想法帶入主流的人。消費者對這一概念的接受度也在不斷提高。優步第三季度的收入增長達 20%，延續了已確立的趨勢。而且它的盈利能力也在不斷提升。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/93c71c8c9fc5986b9b80633d2478ea50.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/93c71c8c9fc5986b9b80633d2478ea50.png"/></p>
<p>UBER Revenue (Quarterly) data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>優步季度收入數據來源於 YCharts</p>
</div><p>Analysts expect more top- and bottom-line growth well into the future, too.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>分析師預計未來的收入和利潤增長將持續。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDI4MjYvMDEwMzI0LXViZXItcmVzdWx0cy5wbmcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F802826%2F010324-uber-results.png&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Data source: StockAnalysis.com. Chart by author.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>數據來源：StockAnalysis.com。圖表由作者製作。</p>
</div><p>This forward progress is only part of the bullish argument for owning a stake in Uber, however, and not even the most important part. Far more important is the underlying cultural reason for this continued sales and earnings growth. That is, car ownership is on the decline. Ditto for even getting a driver's license.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，這一前進的進展只是持有優步股份的看漲論點的一部分，甚至不是最重要的部分。更重要的是，持續的銷售和盈利增長背後的文化原因。也就是説，汽車擁有率正在下降。獲得駕駛執照的情況也是如此。</p>
</div><p>Numbers from the U.S. Federal Highway Administration reported by legal information website Consumer Shield flesh out the story, indicating that domestic car registrations have dwindled from 2001's peak of 138 million to a multi-decade low of just under 100 million in 2022. The COVID-19 pandemic and its fallout are responsible for at least some of the more recent weakness on this front. But this count has been regularly declining since well before the contagion took hold.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美國聯邦公路管理局的數據通過法律信息網站 Consumer Shield 進一步闡明瞭這一情況，顯示國內汽車註冊數量從 2001 年的峯值 1.38 億減少到 2022 年的近 100 百萬的多年來低點。COVID-19 疫情及其後果至少在一定程度上導致了這一領域的近期疲軟。但這一數字在疫情爆發之前就已經在持續下降。</p>
</div><p>You may see or hear differing data. Particularly, a commonly cited figure from the Federal Highway Administration suggests that as of 2022 there were actually 283.4 million registered vehicles on U.S. roads. This count includes buses and heavy-duty trucks, however, which are generally owned by governments and corporations for commercial or public-service purposes.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>你可能會看到或聽到不同的數據。特別是，聯邦公路管理局常被引用的數據顯示，截至 2022 年，美國道路上實際上有 2.834 億輛註冊車輛。然而，這一統計數字包括公共汽車和重型卡車，這些車輛通常由政府和企業用於商業或公共服務目的。</p>
</div><p>The number of vehicles sitting in peoples' driveways is also relatively stagnant...at least as a percentage of U.S. households. Consumer Shield adds that as of 2022, the typical American household owns 1.83 automobiles, extending a slight downtrend from 2001's peak of 1.89.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>人們車道上的車輛數量也相對停滯不前……至少在美國家庭的比例上。Consumer Shield 補充道，截至 2022 年，典型的美國家庭擁有 1.83 輛汽車，延續了自 2001 年 1.89 輛的輕微下降趨勢。</p>
</div><p>A similar dynamic is evident outside of the U.S. as well, where Uber is expanding.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在優步擴展的其他國家也可以看到類似的動態。</p>
</div><h2>Young adults are normalizing a lack of car ownership as they age</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>年輕人隨着年齡的增長正在逐漸接受不擁有汽車的生活方式</h2>
</div><p>It seems unlikely this shallow downtrend is set to reverse anytime soon. A recent poll performed by car-sharing network Zipcar indicates that more than one out of every three Americans is considering not owning any vehicle by 2030. Nearly one out of every five of these respondents, in fact, says they they're very serious about getting rid of their cars and using alternative forms of transportation instead.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這種微弱的下降趨勢似乎不太可能在短期內逆轉。最近由汽車共享網絡 Zipcar 進行的一項調查顯示，超過三分之一的美國人考慮到 2030 年不再擁有任何車輛。事實上，近五分之一的受訪者表示，他們非常認真地考慮擺脱汽車，轉而使用替代交通方式。</p>
</div><p>And other data underscores this growing disinterest. For instance, Hedges Company predicts the total sales of light vehicles (sedans, SUVs, not commercial trucks) within the United States is on pace to reach a modest 15.9 million units this year despite the decent economy and greater post-COVID stability. That's up from 2023's count of 15.5 million, but still markedly below 2016's peak of 17.4 million.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>其他數據也強調了這種日益增長的興趣缺失。例如，Hedges Company 預測，儘管經濟良好且後疫情穩定，2023 年美國輕型車輛（轎車、SUV，而非商用卡車）的總銷售量預計將達到 1500 萬輛。這一數字高於 2023 年的 1550 萬輛，但仍明顯低於 2016 年的 1740 萬輛峯值。</p>
</div><p>Younger consumers are growing up with less interest in vehicle ownership than their parents, too...or even getting a driver's license. Numbers from the U.S. Department of Transportation indicate that as of 2022 only about one-fourth of the nation's 16-year-olds held a license, versus half of this age group in 1983. Even the number of 18-year-old drivers has tumbled from 80% back then to only 60% now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>年輕消費者對車輛擁有的興趣低於他們的父母……甚至對獲得駕駛執照的興趣也在下降。美國交通部的數據表明，截至 2022 年，只有大約四分之一的 16 歲美國人持有駕駛執照，而 1983 年這一年齡組的持證比例為一半。即使是 18 歲駕駛員的數量也從當時的 80% 下降到現在的 60%。</p>
</div><p>The chief reasons for this once-unlikely dynamic? Cost is one; the average payment for a new car now stands at over $700 per month. A lack of need is another. Younger generations are completely comfortable with finding entertainment and maintaining a social life via a computer. A ride-hailing service like Uber's makes it possible to live and function in an environment where such a perspective is increasingly the norm.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>造成這種曾經不太可能的動態的主要原因是什麼？成本是一個原因；新車的平均月供現在超過 700 美元。缺乏需求是另一個原因。年輕一代完全習慣於通過計算機尋找娛樂和維持社交生活。像優步這樣的打車服務使得在這種日益普遍的環境中生活和運作成為可能。</p>
</div><p>And again, this dynamic is evident in other parts of the world.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>而且，這種動態在世界其他地方也很明顯。</p>
</div><h2>Both stocks are good, but Uber stock is better</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>兩隻股票都不錯，但優步的股票更好</h2>
</div><p>None of this to suggest owning Amazon stock at this point in time is a mistake. It's still a great play. In fact, in many ways Amazon benefits from the same underlying dynamic that's driving Uber's growth. That's the growing number of consumers that are content without owning or even driving a vehicle. These people are similarly content to shop online and let Amazon figure out how to get products to their doorstep. (Meanwhile, Amazon's cloud computing workhorse is riding a different growth trend.)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這並不是説在此時擁有亞馬遜股票是個錯誤。它仍然是一個很好的投資。事實上，在許多方面，亞馬遜也受益於推動優步增長的同一基礎動態。那就是越來越多的消費者對不擁有或甚至不駕駛車輛感到滿意。這些人同樣樂於在線購物，並讓亞馬遜想辦法將產品送到他們的家門口。（與此同時，亞馬遜的雲計算業務正在經歷不同的增長趨勢。）</p>
</div><p>Of the two tickers in question, though, Uber is arguably the more promising prospect simply because so many investors still underestimate just how strong its cultural tailwind is and how long it could persist. For perspective, market research outfit Future Market Insight believes the global ride-hailing market is set to grow at an average annualized pace of 15.4% through 2034.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不過，在這兩個股票中，優步無疑是更具前景的投資，因為許多投資者仍然低估了其文化順風的強度以及這種趨勢可能持續的時間。為了提供一個視角，市場研究機構 Future Market Insight 認為，全球打車市場預計將在 2034 年前以 15.4% 的年均增速增長。</p>
</div><p>Market leader Uber is poised to capture at least its fair share of this growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市場領導者優步有望獲得至少其應有的市場份額。</p>
</div>

Should You Forget Amazon? Why You Might Want to Buy This Unstoppable Growth Stock Instead

- 亞馬遜自 1997 年上市以來股價上漲約 300,000%。
- 儘管未來 30 年回報可能不如過去，Uber 的增長潛力仍被看好。
- 預計全球打車市場將以每年 15.4% 的速度增長，Uber 將受益。

你應該忘記亞馬遜嗎？為什麼你可能會想購買這隻勢不可擋的成長股