<p>意外強勁的 12 月就業報告使 <strong>道瓊斯工業平均指數</strong> 在週五早盤暴跌超過 600 點（1.5%），同時美國國債收益率持續上升，通脹擔憂成為焦點。大多數行業都面臨困難，包括金融行業。</p>
<p>截至東部時間上午 11:46，<strong>富國銀行</strong>（WFC -2.65%）的股價下跌了 2.6%，而投資銀行 <strong>傑富瑞金融</strong>（JEF -11.97%）下跌了 11.4%，私募股權巨頭 <strong>黑石集團</strong>（BX -4.67%）的股價也下跌了約 5%。</p>
<h2>收益率、就業和再次的收益率</h2>
<p>自 12 月中旬以來，投資者對持續的通脹問題越來越擔憂，這也是美聯儲關注的重點。美聯儲已將 2025 年降息的預測從四次下調至兩次。市場對降息前景的看法更加悲觀，而週五的就業報告並沒有改善這種情況。12 月非農就業人數增加了 256,000 個職位，比道瓊斯的共識高出 100,000 個，並且比 11 月的 212,000 個有所上升。如果這個就業報告中有一個積極的方面，那就是每小時工資比上個月增長了 0.3%，符合預期。每小時工資同比增長 3.9%，略低於預期。</p>
<p>押注美聯儲如何處理聯邦基金利率的交易員現在幾乎認為 1 月份不會降息，75% 的交易員認為美聯儲在 3 月份也將維持利率不變。大約 40% 的交易員僅預計 2025 年會有一次降息。</p>
<p>&#34;意外強勁的就業報告肯定不會讓美聯儲變得不那麼鷹派，&#34;<strong>摩根士丹利</strong> 首席經濟策略師艾倫·贊特告訴 CNBC。&#34;所有的目光現在都將轉向下週的通脹數據，但即使這些數字出現意外下滑，可能也不足以讓美聯儲很快降息。&#34;</p>
<p>週五該行業沒有太多公司特定的新聞，但更高的利率可能對銀行和金融機構產生多重影響。其中最顯著的是，它們增加了存款成本，並重新引發了信貸擔憂，特別是商業房地產貸款。黑石集團有許多房地產投資，當利率上升時，它們的借款成本也會增加，這可能會影響估值。此外，更高的利率和更多的波動性可能會給投資銀行活動帶來麻煩，而該行業的投資者希望今年能有所反彈。</p>
<p>傑富瑞是一家純粹的投資銀行。週三，它報告的收益比去年同期增長了 200%，得益於交易活動的反彈，因此也許今年的活動仍會改善。然而，高利率環境在過去幾年中阻礙了交易和首次公開募股。持續的高利率可能會對這一活動產生制約。</p>
<h2>從積極的方面看...</h2>
<p>我對今年金融行業的前景仍然持樂觀態度。是的，國債的市場利率正在上升，但收益率曲線仍在陡峭化，這與過去幾年相比是一個良好的變化，應該有助於銀行的利潤。此外，特朗普當選總統的政府對銀行應該更加有利，監管會更寬鬆，資本要求也會降低，監管機構由更快批准銀行收購的任命官員管理。</p>
<p>投資者應該記住，利率的前景可能會迅速變化。下週將發佈新的通脹數據，疲軟的讀數可能會幫助收益率稍微下降。看到收益率上升是更好的，因為收益率曲線的陡峭化可能表明經濟擴張。短期內將會波動，收益率高企，投資者試圖預測特朗普潛在關税和其他政策的影響。不過，我認為像富國銀行和傑富瑞這樣的銀行股現在並不是一個糟糕的選擇。</p>

富國銀行

黑石集團

<p>金融股，包括富國銀行、傑富瑞和黑石集團，在 12 月份的就業報告強於預期後下跌，該報告引發了通脹擔憂，並導致道瓊斯工業平均指數下跌超過 600 點。富國銀行股價下跌 2.6%，傑富瑞下跌 11.4%，黑石集團下跌 5%。報告顯示新增就業崗位為 256,000 個，超出預期，而工資增長符合預測。美聯儲對降息的前景也發生了變化，交易員們現在預計 2025 年的降息次數將減少，這對金融行業的表現產生了影響</p>

<p>A hotter-than-expected December jobs report sent the <strong>Dow Jones Industrial Average</strong> tumbling by more than 600 points (1.5%) on Friday morning as U.S. Treasury yields continued to rise and inflation concerns took center stage. Most sectors struggled, including financials.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>意外強勁的 12 月就業報告使 <strong>道瓊斯工業平均指數</strong> 在週五早盤暴跌超過 600 點（1.5%），同時美國國債收益率持續上升，通脹擔憂成為焦點。大多數行業都面臨困難，包括金融行業。</p>
</div><p>Shares of <strong>Wells Fargo</strong>(WFC -2.65%) were trading 2.6% lower as of 11:46 a.m. ET, while investment bank <strong>Jefferies Financial</strong>(JEF -11.97%) was off by 11.4% and private equity giant <strong>Blackstone</strong>(BX -4.67%) was down by roughly 5%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至東部時間上午 11:46，<strong>富國銀行</strong>（WFC -2.65%）的股價下跌了 2.6%，而投資銀行 <strong>傑富瑞金融</strong>（JEF -11.97%）下跌了 11.4%，私募股權巨頭 <strong>黑石集團</strong>（BX -4.67%）的股價也下跌了約 5%。</p>
</div><h2>Yields, jobs, and yields again</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>收益率、就業和再次的收益率</h2>
</div><p>Since mid-December, investors have grown increasingly concerned about sticky inflation, an issue that is also top of mind for the Federal Reserve. The Fed has pared back its forecast for interest rate cuts in 2025 from four to two. The market is even more pessimistic on the outlook for rate cuts, and Friday's jobs report didn't help. Nonfarm payrolls in December added 256,000 jobs, 100,000 more than the Dow Jones consensus, and up from 212,000 in November. If there was a silver lining in that jobs report, it would be that hourly wages grew 0.3% from the prior month, in line with expectations. Hourly wages grew 3.9% year over year, slightly below estimates.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自 12 月中旬以來，投資者對持續的通脹問題越來越擔憂，這也是美聯儲關注的重點。美聯儲已將 2025 年降息的預測從四次下調至兩次。市場對降息前景的看法更加悲觀，而週五的就業報告並沒有改善這種情況。12 月非農就業人數增加了 256,000 個職位，比道瓊斯的共識高出 100,000 個，並且比 11 月的 212,000 個有所上升。如果這個就業報告中有一個積極的方面，那就是每小時工資比上個月增長了 0.3%，符合預期。每小時工資同比增長 3.9%，略低於預期。</p>
</div><p>Traders betting on how the Fed will deal with the federal funds rate now see virtually no chance of a rate cut in January, and 75% of traders think the Fed will leave rates unchanged in March as well. About 40% of traders only expect one rate cut in 2025.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>押注美聯儲如何處理聯邦基金利率的交易員現在幾乎認為 1 月份不會降息，75% 的交易員認為美聯儲在 3 月份也將維持利率不變。大約 40% 的交易員僅預計 2025 年會有一次降息。</p>
</div><p>&#34;The surprisingly strong jobs report certainly isn't going to make the Fed less hawkish,&#34; <strong>Morgan Stanley</strong> Chief Economic Strategist Ellen Zentner told CNBC. &#34;All eyes will now turn to next week's inflation data, but even a downside surprise in those numbers probably won't be enough to get the Fed to cut rates any time soon.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>&#34;意外強勁的就業報告肯定不會讓美聯儲變得不那麼鷹派，&#34;<strong>摩根士丹利</strong> 首席經濟策略師艾倫·贊特告訴 CNBC。&#34;所有的目光現在都將轉向下週的通脹數據，但即使這些數字出現意外下滑，可能也不足以讓美聯儲很快降息。&#34;</p>
</div><p>There wasn't much company-specific news Friday in the sector, but higher interest rates can have several consequences for banks and financial institutions. Prominent among them, they increase the cost of deposits and renew credit concerns, particularly for commercial real estate loans. Blackstone has many real estate investments, and their borrowing costs increase when rates are higher, which could put a dent in valuations. Additionally, higher rates and more volatility can spell trouble for investment banking activity, which investors in the sector are hoping will rebound this year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>週五該行業沒有太多公司特定的新聞，但更高的利率可能對銀行和金融機構產生多重影響。其中最顯著的是，它們增加了存款成本，並重新引發了信貸擔憂，特別是商業房地產貸款。黑石集團有許多房地產投資，當利率上升時，它們的借款成本也會增加，這可能會影響估值。此外，更高的利率和更多的波動性可能會給投資銀行活動帶來麻煩，而該行業的投資者希望今年能有所反彈。</p>
</div><p>Jefferies is a pure-play investment bank. On Wednesday, it reported earnings that were up 200% from the same period a year ago, powered by a rebound in deal-making, so perhaps activity will still improve this year. However, the high interest rate environment has hindered deal-making and initial public offerings over the last few years. The persistence of higher rates for longer could put the brakes on that activity.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>傑富瑞是一家純粹的投資銀行。週三，它報告的收益比去年同期增長了 200%，得益於交易活動的反彈，因此也許今年的活動仍會改善。然而，高利率環境在過去幾年中阻礙了交易和首次公開募股。持續的高利率可能會對這一活動產生制約。</p>
</div><h2>On the bright side...</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>從積極的方面看...</h2>
</div><p>I'm still optimistic about the outlook for financials this year. Yes, market rates on Treasuries are going up, but the yield curve is still steepening, which is a nice change from the past few years and should help bank margins. Furthermore, President-elect Donald Trump's administration should be more favorable for banks, with looser regulation and less stringent capital requirements, and with regulatory agencies run by appointees who will be more quick to approve bank acquisitions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我對今年金融行業的前景仍然持樂觀態度。是的，國債的市場利率正在上升，但收益率曲線仍在陡峭化，這與過去幾年相比是一個良好的變化，應該有助於銀行的利潤。此外，特朗普當選總統的政府對銀行應該更加有利，監管會更寬鬆，資本要求也會降低，監管機構由更快批准銀行收購的任命官員管理。</p>
</div><p>Investors should remember that the outlook for interest rates can change quickly. Next week, new inflation data will come out, and a weak reading may help bring yields down a bit. It's also better to see yields rising as the yield curve steepens, as that can indicate economic expansion. The near term will be volatile, with elevated yields and investors trying to predict the impact of Trump's potential tariffs and other policies. Still, I don't think bank stocks like Wells Fargo and Jefferies are a bad play now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投資者應該記住，利率的前景可能會迅速變化。下週將發佈新的通脹數據，疲軟的讀數可能會幫助收益率稍微下降。看到收益率上升是更好的，因為收益率曲線的陡峭化可能表明經濟擴張。短期內將會波動，收益率高企，投資者試圖預測特朗普潛在關税和其他政策的影響。不過，我認為像富國銀行和傑富瑞這樣的銀行股現在並不是一個糟糕的選擇。</p>
</div>

Financial Stocks Wells Fargo, Jefferies, and Blackstone Are Falling After a Hot Jobs Report

- 12 月就業報告超預期，導致道瓊斯指數下跌超過 600 點。  
- 非農就業人數增加 256,000，超出預期，失業率保持穩定。  
- 高利率環境可能影響銀行和投資銀行的活動，但前景仍被看好。  

在一份火熱的就業報告發布後，富國銀行、傑富瑞和黑石集團的金融股下跌