<p>數百萬顧客定期在 <strong>開市客</strong>(COST 1.03%) 購物，吸引他們的是其廣泛產品的低價。該公司在美國（包括波多黎各）、加拿大、墨西哥、澳大利亞、新西蘭、中國、日本、韓國、台灣、法國、瑞典、英國，甚至冰島運營着近 900 個僅對會員開放的倉庫。</p>
<p>但儘管開市客的貨架上的產品便宜，其股票卻並不便宜：這家折扣批發商的股票目前的市盈率超過 54 倍。以下是開市客股票上次如此昂貴時發生的事情。</p>
<h2>像 1999 年那樣狂歡？</h2>
<p>在我們回顧過去之前，先來解決一個可能的反對意見，即開市客的股票是否真的昂貴。市盈率高的股票是否可能仍然具有吸引力的估值？絕對有可能。當一家公司的增長前景異常強勁時，就會出現這種情況。</p>
<p>然而，這似乎並不是開市客的情況。其前瞻性市盈率為 50.8，仍然處於極高水平。根據金融基礎設施和數據提供商 <strong>LSEG</strong> 的數據，該股票的市盈率與增長比率（PEG）也高達 5.5。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/132f54b4d6dbd39a496ad81a71c0becc.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/132f54b4d6dbd39a496ad81a71c0becc.png"/></p>
<p>COST PE Ratio 數據來自 YCharts</p>
<p>現實是，自 1999 年 4 月以來，開市客的股票比以往任何時候都要昂貴，當時其過去 12 個月的市盈率達到了 56.4。那麼，在公司估值達到該水平後發生了什麼？結果並不美好。</p>
<p>幾個月內，開市客的股價下跌超過 20%。儘管它反彈了，但反彈並沒有持續太久。2000 年，股價更是暴跌超過 40%。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/5bda2449c72e8453eafeb2f4115cc1f1.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/5bda2449c72e8453eafeb2f4115cc1f1.png"/></p>
<p>COST 數據來自 YCharts。</p>
<h2>歷史會重演嗎？</h2>
<p>任何統計學家都會告訴你，樣本量為 1 在預測未來可能發生的事情時毫無用處。而我們只有一次開市客股票大致與現在一樣昂貴的過去經歷。</p>
<p>歷史愛好者也可能會迅速指出，開市客在 1999 年達到了最高的市盈率，不久之後互聯網泡沫就破裂了。許多股票的估值並沒有得到其商業基本面的支持。雖然當時開市客並不是一家互聯網公司，但其股票也捲入了那種狂熱和不可避免的後果中。</p>
<p>因此，可以提出一個相當不錯的論點，即歷史不一定會在現在重演。另一方面，1999 年和 2025 年之間確實存在一些潛在的令人擔憂的相似之處。</p>
<p>股市再次變得昂貴。這一次，人工智能（AI）的熱情是推動繁榮的關鍵因素，而不是電子商務。然而，一些觀察者認為市場正處於一個類似於互聯網泡沫的人工智能泡沫中。</p>
<p>不僅僅是互聯網股票在 1999 年變得超級昂貴，正如 2025 年高估值並不侷限於人工智能股票一樣。開市客當時是個例外，現在也是。</p>
<h2>購買開市客股票的理由</h2>
<p>我的幾位 <strong>Motley Fool</strong> 同事認為，儘管開市客的估值很高，但其股票仍然可以繼續上漲。他們為購買該股票提供了有力的理由。</p>
<p>Demitri Kalogeropoulos 最近寫道：&#34;開市客通過持續贏得市場份額和構建一種零售即服務的商業模式，賺取了相對於同行的溢價，這種模式產生了高度穩定的會員費用。&#34; 他對開市客的業績記錄是完全正確的。</p>
<p>Geoffrey Seiler 幾周前指出：&#34;圍繞開市客估值的問題在過去幾年中一直是一個相當普遍的主題，但該股票仍然表現非常好。&#34; 他也是對的。</p>
<p>Billy Duberstein 在對開市客的分析中總結道：&#34;憑藉其韌性的商業模式和多年來增長及利潤擴張的機會，該股票並不像看起來那麼瘋狂昂貴。&#34; 我認為這也是非常準確的。</p>
<p>我通常同意這三種觀點。然而，如果你認為接下來會有一個 “但是”，你是對的。</p>
<p>開市客是一家經過驗證的贏家，但其股價最終必須由收益來證明。如果公司的收益增長不足以支持超過 50 的市盈率，其股票可能會下跌到更符合現實增長預期的水平。開市客在最新一季度報告的同比收益增長為 13%。在我看來，這還不夠。</p>
<p>除非開市客的收益顯著加速（這是可能的），否則其股價遲早可能會下跌。我認為該股票在 2025 年不一定會下跌，特別是如果通貨膨脹重新抬頭並推動更多顧客前往公司的倉庫。然而，無論何時出現回調，這可能為長期投資者提供一個絕佳的買入機會——如果歷史重演的話。</p>

開市客

<p>開市客的股票目前的市盈率超過 54 倍，是自 1999 年 4 月以來的最高水平。歷史數據顯示，當開市客的市盈率達到類似水平時，股價在不久後下跌超過 20%。雖然一些分析師認為開市客強大的市場地位證明了其高估值是合理的，但人們仍然對其維持盈利增長的能力表示擔憂。如果開市客的盈利沒有加速增長，股價下跌可能是不可避免的，儘管任何回調都可能為長期投資者提供買入機會</p>

<p>Millions of customers regularly shop at <strong>Costco Wholesale</strong>(COST 1.03%), drawn by its low prices on a wide range of products. The company operates nearly 900 warehouses open to members only in the U.S. (including Puerto Rico), Canada, Mexico, Australia, New Zealand, China, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, France, Sweden, the U.K., and even Iceland.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>數百萬顧客定期在 <strong>開市客</strong>(COST 1.03%) 購物，吸引他們的是其廣泛產品的低價。該公司在美國（包括波多黎各）、加拿大、墨西哥、澳大利亞、新西蘭、中國、日本、韓國、台灣、法國、瑞典、英國，甚至冰島運營着近 900 個僅對會員開放的倉庫。</p>
</div><p>But while the products on Costco's shelves are cheap, its stock isn't: The discount wholesaler's shares currently trade at over 54 times earnings. Here's what happened the last time Costco stock was this expensive.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但儘管開市客的貨架上的產品便宜，其股票卻並不便宜：這家折扣批發商的股票目前的市盈率超過 54 倍。以下是開市客股票上次如此昂貴時發生的事情。</p>
</div><h2>Party like it's 1999?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>像 1999 年那樣狂歡？</h2>
</div><p>Before we look to the past, let's address a potential objection to the premise that Costco stock is expensive. Is it possible that a stock with a high price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio could still be attractively valued? Absolutely. That can happen when a company's growth prospects are exceptionally strong.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在我們回顧過去之前，先來解決一個可能的反對意見，即開市客的股票是否真的昂貴。市盈率高的股票是否可能仍然具有吸引力的估值？絕對有可能。當一家公司的增長前景異常強勁時，就會出現這種情況。</p>
</div><p>However, that doesn't appear to be the case with Costco. Its forward earnings multiple of 50.8 is still at a nosebleed level. The stock's price-to-earnings-to-growth (PEG) ratio, which includes growth projections over the next five years, is also a sky-high 5.5, according to financial infrastructure and data provider <strong>LSEG</strong>.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，這似乎並不是開市客的情況。其前瞻性市盈率為 50.8，仍然處於極高水平。根據金融基礎設施和數據提供商 <strong>LSEG</strong> 的數據，該股票的市盈率與增長比率（PEG）也高達 5.5。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/132f54b4d6dbd39a496ad81a71c0becc.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/132f54b4d6dbd39a496ad81a71c0becc.png"/></p>
<p>COST PE Ratio data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>COST PE Ratio 數據來自 YCharts</p>
</div><p>The reality is that Costco stock is more expensive than it's been since April 1999, when its trailing 12-month P/E multiple hit 56.4. What happened after the company's valuation reached that level? It wasn't pretty.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>現實是，自 1999 年 4 月以來，開市客的股票比以往任何時候都要昂貴，當時其過去 12 個月的市盈率達到了 56.4。那麼，在公司估值達到該水平後發生了什麼？結果並不美好。</p>
</div><p>In a matter of months, Costco's share price fell more than 20%. Although it rebounded, the bounce didn't last very long. An even steeper sell-off came in 2000 with the stock plunging more than 40%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>幾個月內，開市客的股價下跌超過 20%。儘管它反彈了，但反彈並沒有持續太久。2000 年，股價更是暴跌超過 40%。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/5bda2449c72e8453eafeb2f4115cc1f1.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/5bda2449c72e8453eafeb2f4115cc1f1.png"/></p>
<p>COST data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>COST 數據來自 YCharts。</p>
</div><h2>Will history repeat itself?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>歷史會重演嗎？</h2>
</div><p>Any statistician will tell you that a sample size of one is useless in predicting what might happen. And we only have one past occasion when Costco stock was roughly as expensive as it is now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>任何統計學家都會告訴你，樣本量為 1 在預測未來可能發生的事情時毫無用處。而我們只有一次開市客股票大致與現在一樣昂貴的過去經歷。</p>
</div><p>History buffs might also be quick to point out that Costco reached its highest P/E ratio in 1999 not long before the dot-com bubble burst. Many stocks sported valuations that weren't justified by their business fundamentals. While Costco wasn't a dot-com company then, its stock was caught up in the exuberance and the inevitable aftermath.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>歷史愛好者也可能會迅速指出，開市客在 1999 年達到了最高的市盈率，不久之後互聯網泡沫就破裂了。許多股票的估值並沒有得到其商業基本面的支持。雖然當時開市客並不是一家互聯網公司，但其股票也捲入了那種狂熱和不可避免的後果中。</p>
</div><p>A pretty good argument can be made, therefore, that history won't necessarily repeat itself now. On the other hand, there are some potentially worrisome similarities between 1999 and 2025.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，可以提出一個相當不錯的論點，即歷史不一定會在現在重演。另一方面，1999 年和 2025 年之間確實存在一些潛在的令人擔憂的相似之處。</p>
</div><p>The stock market is again expensive. This time around, enthusiasm about artificial intelligence (AI) is a key driver behind the boom instead of e-commerce. However, some observers believe the market is in an AI bubble reminiscent of the dot-com bubble.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>股市再次變得昂貴。這一次，人工智能（AI）的熱情是推動繁榮的關鍵因素，而不是電子商務。然而，一些觀察者認為市場正處於一個類似於互聯網泡沫的人工智能泡沫中。</p>
</div><p>It wasn't only internet stocks that became super expensive in 1999, just as premium valuations aren't limited to AI stocks in 2025. Costco was an exception back then, and is again today.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不僅僅是互聯網股票在 1999 年變得超級昂貴，正如 2025 年高估值並不侷限於人工智能股票一樣。開市客當時是個例外，現在也是。</p>
</div><h2>The case for buying Costco stock</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>購買開市客股票的理由</h2>
</div><p>Several of my Motley Fool colleagues believe that Costco's shares can continue to rise despite its high valuation. And they make a solid case for buying the stock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我的幾位 <strong>Motley Fool</strong> 同事認為，儘管開市客的估值很高，但其股票仍然可以繼續上漲。他們為購買該股票提供了有力的理由。</p>
</div><p>Demitri Kalogeropoulos recently wrote, &#34;Costco has earned its premium over peers by putting together a long streak of market-share wins and constructing a retailing-as-a-service business that generates highly stable membership fees.&#34; He's absolutely right about Costco's track record.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Demitri Kalogeropoulos 最近寫道：&#34;開市客通過持續贏得市場份額和構建一種零售即服務的商業模式，賺取了相對於同行的溢價，這種模式產生了高度穩定的會員費用。&#34; 他對開市客的業績記錄是完全正確的。</p>
</div><p>Geoffrey Seiler noted a few weeks ago that &#34;questions surrounding Costco's valuation have been a pretty common theme during the past few years, and the stock has nonetheless continued to perform very well.&#34; He's correct, too.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Geoffrey Seiler 幾周前指出：&#34;圍繞開市客估值的問題在過去幾年中一直是一個相當普遍的主題，但該股票仍然表現非常好。&#34; 他也是對的。</p>
</div><p>Billy Duberstein concluded in his analysis of Costco: &#34;With its resilient business model and opportunities for both multi-decade growth and profit expansion, the stock isn't as wildly expensive as it might appear.&#34; Again, this seems spot-on to me.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Billy Duberstein 在對開市客的分析中總結道：&#34;憑藉其韌性的商業模式和多年來增長及利潤擴張的機會，該股票並不像看起來那麼瘋狂昂貴。&#34; 我認為這也是非常準確的。</p>
</div><p>I generally agree with all three takes. However, if you think there's a &#34;but&#34; coming, you're right.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我通常同意這三種觀點。然而，如果你認為接下來會有一個 “但是”，你是對的。</p>
</div><p>Costco is a proven winner, but its share price must ultimately be justified by earnings. If the company's earnings don't grow rapidly enough to warrant a P/E multiple of over 50, its stock is likely to fall to a level more in line with realistic growth expectations. Costco reported year-over-year earnings growth of 13% in its latest quarter. That's not enough, in my opinion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>開市客是一家經過驗證的贏家，但其股價最終必須由收益來證明。如果公司的收益增長不足以支持超過 50 的市盈率，其股票可能會下跌到更符合現實增長預期的水平。開市客在最新一季度報告的同比收益增長為 13%。在我看來，這還不夠。</p>
</div><p>Unless Costco's earnings accelerate significantly (which is possible), its share price will likely tumble sooner or later. I don't think the stock will necessarily decline in 2025, especially if inflation resurges and pushes more customers to the company's warehouses. Whenever a pullback does occur, though, it could present an excellent buying opportunity for long-term investors -- if history repeats itself.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>除非開市客的收益顯著加速（這是可能的），否則其股價遲早可能會下跌。我認為該股票在 2025 年不一定會下跌，特別是如果通貨膨脹重新抬頭並推動更多顧客前往公司的倉庫。然而，無論何時出現回調，這可能為長期投資者提供一個絕佳的買入機會——如果歷史重演的話。</p>
</div>

上一次開市客股票達到如此高價時發生了什麼。歷史會重演嗎？