<p>量子計算技術在 2024 年底成為熱門投資話題。上個月，<strong>Alphabet</strong>（GOOG -1.14%）（GOOGL -0.98%）推出了其 Willow 量子計算芯片，該芯片的錯誤率顯著低於早期版本，投資者紛紛湧向專注於量子計算的公司的股票。這些股票的價格飆升。</p>
<p>然而，所有的樂觀情緒似乎在 <strong>Nvidia</strong>（NVDA -3.00%）首席執行官黃仁勳在拉斯維加斯消費電子展（CES）上的問答環節中對量子計算前景的評論後煙消雲散。</p>
<h2>實用的量子計算仍然遙不可及</h2>
<p>那麼，黃仁勳是如何單槍匹馬導致整個科技市場崩潰的呢？</p>
<p>他聲稱，實用的量子計算——可以將量子計算機視為超級超級計算機——可能還需要二十年的時間。顯然，這不是投資者想聽到的，尤其是來自一位對計算行業脈搏瞭如指掌的首席執行官。對於大多數個人投資者來説，這個時間太長了，這也是量子計算股票大幅下跌的原因。</p>
<p>不過，投資者不應該對這個時間表感到驚訝。儘管量子計算股票時不時會受到關注，但谷歌的 Willow 芯片公告重新激發了對該技術的興趣。該芯片僅用五分鐘就完成了一項基準計算，而標準超級計算機需要 10 的 27 次方（即 1 後面跟 25 個零）年的時間才能完成。然而，重要的是要認識到，這個特定的測試在某種程度上是有利於 Willow 的，因為它涉及隨機電路採樣，這是一種適合量子計算機獨特屬性的非同尋常的問題。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDMxMTIvcmNzLXRlc3QtY29tcGFyZWQtdG8tb3RoZXItYmVuY2htYXJrcy5wbmcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDMxMTIvcmNzLXRlc3QtY29tcGFyZWQtdG8tb3RoZXItYmVuY2htYXJrcy5wbmcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：谷歌。</p>
<p>這可能是一個極其困難的測試，但它並不是非常廣泛實用。上面的圖表表明，量子計算距離商業相關性和實用性仍然很遠，這支持了黃仁勳的説法。</p>
<p>然而，並不是所有量子計算公司的首席執行官都同意這一觀點。</p>
<p><strong>D-Wave Quantum</strong>（QBTS -5.41%）首席執行官 Alan Baratz 稱黃仁勳的評論是 “完全錯誤的”。儘管他承認黃仁勳在基於門的量子計算方面可能是正確的，但他表示，自己公司的退火量子計算方法現在就可以部署。儘管如此，D-Wave 並沒有看到太多成功：在第三季度，其收入同比下降 27%，降至 190 萬美元。</p>
<h2>投資計算的未來</h2>
<p>那麼，投資者應該如何看待量子計算？</p>
<p>除非你準備持有像 <strong>IonQ</strong>（IONQ 6.88%）或 <strong>Rigetti Computing</strong>（RGTI -11.06%）這樣的純量子計算股票超過十年，否則你可能更好地選擇在這個科技領域保持觀望，或者通過投資一些在量子計算方面有投資的大公司來獲得投資組合的曝光。</p>
<p>購買 Alphabet 的股票將是一個很好的策略，因為這將讓你從其已經成功的業務中受益，同時提供未來任何量子計算突破的潛在收益。Alphabet 已經是該領域的領導者，但其股票的風險遠低於純量子計算股票。另一方面，那些量子計算股票的長期回報潛力要高得多。</p>
<p>商業上實用的量子計算可能還需要一些時間，這意味着許多投資者可能會希望避開這些純投資。傳統計算仍然有很多上升空間，尤其是在當前人工智能（AI）熱潮的背景下。因此，投資者可能會更好地關注他們已經擁有的東西，而不是進行引人注目的量子計算投資。</p>

英偉達

<p>英偉達首席執行官黃仁勳在 CES 上的評論提到，實用量子計算的時間表可能還需要二十年，這導致量子計算股票出現了大幅拋售。儘管在谷歌宣佈其 Willow 量子芯片後最初引發了興奮，但黃的前景看法卻抑制了投資者的熱情。D-Wave Quantum 的首席執行官不同意黃的觀點，聲稱他們的技術現在就可以部署。鑑於商業可行性還需漫長等待，建議投資者考慮像 Alphabet 這樣的成熟公司，以獲取量子計算的投資機會，而不是純粹的量子計算股票</p>

<p>Quantum computing technology became a hot investing topic toward the end of 2024. After <strong>Alphabet</strong>(GOOG -1.14%)(GOOGL -0.98%) last month unveiled its Willow quantum computing chip, which is significantly less error-prone than earlier iterations of the technology, investors flocked to the shares of companies that focus solely on quantum computing. Prices for those stocks surged.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>量子計算技術在 2024 年底成為熱門投資話題。上個月，<strong>Alphabet</strong>（GOOG -1.14%）（GOOGL -0.98%）推出了其 Willow 量子計算芯片，該芯片的錯誤率顯著低於早期版本，投資者紛紛湧向專注於量子計算的公司的股票。這些股票的價格飆升。</p>
</div><p>However, all of that optimism seemed to evaporate after <strong>Nvidia</strong>(NVDA -3.00%) Chief Executive Officer Jensen Huang commented about the outlook for quantum computing during a question-and-answer session at the Consumer Electronics Show (CES) in Las Vegas.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，所有的樂觀情緒似乎在 <strong>Nvidia</strong>（NVDA -3.00%）首席執行官黃仁勳在拉斯維加斯消費電子展（CES）上的問答環節中對量子計算前景的評論後煙消雲散。</p>
</div><h2>Useful quantum computing is still a long way away</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>實用的量子計算仍然遙不可及</h2>
</div><p>So how did Huang single-handedly cause a whole corner of the tech market to crash?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>那麼，黃仁勳是如何單槍匹馬導致整個科技市場崩潰的呢？</p>
</div><p>He asserted that useful quantum computing -- think of quantum computers as super supercomputers -- was probably two decades away. Clearly, this isn't what investors wanted to hear, especially from a CEO with his finger on the pulse of the computing industry. That's just too long for most individual investors, which is why quantum computing stocks sold off sharply.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他聲稱，實用的量子計算——可以將量子計算機視為超級超級計算機——可能還需要二十年的時間。顯然，這不是投資者想聽到的，尤其是來自一位對計算行業脈搏瞭如指掌的首席執行官。對於大多數個人投資者來説，這個時間太長了，這也是量子計算股票大幅下跌的原因。</p>
</div><p>Investors shouldn't be surprised by that timeline, though. Although quantum computing stocks have gained popularity from time to time, Google's Willow chip announcement reinvigorated interest in the technology. The chip took just five minutes to perform a benchmark computation for quantum computers that would have taken 10 septillion (that's 1 followed by 25 zeros) years for a standard supercomputer to complete. However, it's important to recognize that this particular test was somewhat stacked in Willow's favor, because it involves random circuit sampling, an unusual type of problem that's well suited to the unique attributes of quantum computers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不過，投資者不應該對這個時間表感到驚訝。儘管量子計算股票時不時會受到關注，但谷歌的 Willow 芯片公告重新激發了對該技術的興趣。該芯片僅用五分鐘就完成了一項基準計算，而標準超級計算機需要 10 的 27 次方（即 1 後面跟 25 個零）年的時間才能完成。然而，重要的是要認識到，這個特定的測試在某種程度上是有利於 Willow 的，因為它涉及隨機電路採樣，這是一種適合量子計算機獨特屬性的非同尋常的問題。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDMxMTIvcmNzLXRlc3QtY29tcGFyZWQtdG8tb3RoZXItYmVuY2htYXJrcy5wbmcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F803112%2Frcs-test-compared-to-other-benchmarks.png&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Google.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：谷歌。</p>
</div><p>It may be an extremely difficult test, but it's not very broadly useful. The chart above suggests that quantum computing is still far from commercial relevance and usefulness, which backs up Huang's assertion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這可能是一個極其困難的測試，但它並不是非常廣泛實用。上面的圖表表明，量子計算距離商業相關性和實用性仍然很遠，這支持了黃仁勳的説法。</p>
</div><p>However, not all quantum computing CEOs agree.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，並不是所有量子計算公司的首席執行官都同意這一觀點。</p>
</div><p><strong>D-Wave</strong> <strong>Quantum</strong>(QBTS -5.41%) CEO Alan Baratz called Huang's comments &#34;dead wrong.&#34; Although he acknowledged that Huang might be correct when it came to gate-based quantum computing, he said his company's annealing approach to quantum computing can be deployed right now. Even so, D-Wave isn't seeing a ton of success: In Q3, its revenue decreased 27% year over year to $1.9 million.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>D-Wave Quantum</strong>（QBTS -5.41%）首席執行官 Alan Baratz 稱黃仁勳的評論是 “完全錯誤的”。儘管他承認黃仁勳在基於門的量子計算方面可能是正確的，但他表示，自己公司的退火量子計算方法現在就可以部署。儘管如此，D-Wave 並沒有看到太多成功：在第三季度，其收入同比下降 27%，降至 190 萬美元。</p>
</div><h2>Investing in the future of computing</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>投資計算的未來</h2>
</div><p>So, what should investors do about quantum computing?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>那麼，投資者應該如何看待量子計算？</p>
</div><p>Unless you're prepared to hold pure-play quantum computing stocks like <strong>IonQ</strong>(IONQ 6.88%) or <strong>Rigetti Computing</strong>(RGTI -11.06%) for more than a decade, you may be better off either staying on the sidelines when it comes to this part of the tech sector, or getting your portfolio exposure to it by investing in large companies that have some investments in quantum computing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>除非你準備持有像 <strong>IonQ</strong>（IONQ 6.88%）或 <strong>Rigetti Computing</strong>（RGTI -11.06%）這樣的純量子計算股票超過十年，否則你可能更好地選擇在這個科技領域保持觀望，或者通過投資一些在量子計算方面有投資的大公司來獲得投資組合的曝光。</p>
</div><p>Buying shares of Alphabet would be a great strategy because it would let you benefit from its already-successful businesses while offering the potential upsides of any quantum computing breakthroughs down the road. Alphabet is already a leader in the sector, but its stock doesn't carry nearly as much risk as quantum computing pure-plays. On the flip side, the long-term return potential for some of those quantum computing stocks is much higher.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>購買 Alphabet 的股票將是一個很好的策略，因為這將讓你從其已經成功的業務中受益，同時提供未來任何量子計算突破的潛在收益。Alphabet 已經是該領域的領導者，但其股票的風險遠低於純量子計算股票。另一方面，那些量子計算股票的長期回報潛力要高得多。</p>
</div><p>Commercially useful quantum computing may be some time away, and that means many investors probably will want to steer clear of these pure-play investments. Traditional computing still has plenty of upside, especially with the artificial intelligence (AI) boom that's going on right now. So investors would likely do better to look at something they already own rather than make a splashy quantum computing investment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>商業上實用的量子計算可能還需要一些時間，這意味着許多投資者可能會希望避開這些純投資。傳統計算仍然有很多上升空間，尤其是在當前人工智能（AI）熱潮的背景下。因此，投資者可能會更好地關注他們已經擁有的東西，而不是進行引人注目的量子計算投資。</p>
</div>

Did Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang Just Crush the Quantum Computing Industry?

- 量子計算技術在 2024 年底成為熱門投資話題。  
- Nvidia CEO 黃仁勳表示，實用量子計算可能還需 20 年，導致相關股票大幅下跌。  
- 投資者應考慮持有大型公司股票，如 Alphabet，以降低風險並獲取潛在收益。

英偉達 CEO 黃仁勳是否剛剛摧毀了量子計算行業？