<p>變革或許是華爾街唯一的確定性。由於創新、競爭、併購、破產和法律判決等因素，構成最大上市公司的拼圖塊不斷變化。</p>
<p>在 2004 年結束時，<strong>埃克森美孚</strong> 是 <strong>標準普爾 500 指數</strong> 中最大的上市公司，<strong>花旗集團</strong> 和 <strong>通用電氣</strong> 也在前十名之內。如今，<strong>微軟</strong>（MSFT -0.42%）是 2004 年底前十名中唯一仍然在美國最大上市公司之列的公司。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDM2ODQvbnlzZS1mbG9vci10cmFkZXItaW52ZXN0LWJ1eS1zZWxsLW9wdGlvbnMtc3RvY2stZXhjaGFuZ2UtZ2V0dHkucG5nJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDM2ODQvbnlzZS1mbG9vci10cmFkZXItaW52ZXN0LWJ1eS1zZWxsLW9wdGlvbnMtc3RvY2stZXhjaGFuZ2UtZ2V0dHkucG5nJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<p>自 2023 年中期以來，我們見證了 <strong>蘋果</strong>（AAPL -1.03%）、微軟和半導體巨頭 <strong>英偉達</strong>（NVDA -1.97%）都突破了 3 萬億美元的估值高峰。儘管考慮到人工智能（AI）的崛起，英偉達似乎是最有把握達到心理上重要的 5 萬億美元水平的公司，但一位黑馬候選人可能有更清晰的路徑成為華爾街首個 5 萬億美元的公司。</p>
<h2>英偉達正在與歷史抗爭，歷史有着無可挑剔的記錄</h2>
<p>一方面，毫無疑問，英偉達享受到了教科書式的運營擴張。該公司的 Hopper（H100）圖形處理單元（GPU）和後續的 Blackwell 芯片已成為希望在其高計算數據中心運行生成性 AI 解決方案和訓練大型語言模型的企業的首選。</p>
<p>由於對 GPU 的需求壓倒了供應，英偉達能夠對其 Hopper 芯片收取 30,000 到 40,000 美元的價格，這比 <strong>超微半導體</strong> 對其 Instinct MI300X GPU 收取的費用高出多達四倍。超凡的定價能力幫助英偉達將其毛利率推高至去年的 78.4%。</p>
<p>儘管 AI 的長期前景依然令人鼓舞，並且這項技術在全球大多數行業中都有實際應用，但英偉達成為華爾街首個 5 萬億美元公司的機會可能會受到歷史的阻礙。</p>
<p>大約三十年前，互聯網開始走向主流，為企業提供了一種與潛在客户聯繫的新方式。儘管互聯網最終確實以積極的方式改變了美國企業的增長軌跡，但企業真正理解如何利用這些新的銷售和營銷渠道卻花費了多年時間。</p>
<p>包括互聯網在內，過去 30 年中每一項顛覆性技術或創新都經歷了早期階段的泡沫。簡單來説，投資者一直高估了新技術/創新被採用或獲得廣泛實用的速度。由於大多數公司缺乏明確的遊戲計劃來最大化其 AI 投資的回報，這使得人工智能成為一系列泡沫中的下一個。</p>
<p>由於沒有公司比英偉達更直接地受益於 AI 革命，因此合理的預期是其股票將受到最嚴重的打擊。歷史先例使得英偉達首先達到 5 萬億美元估值的可能性不大。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDM2ODQvYW1hem9uLXBhY2thZ2UtaHViLWVjb21tZXJjZS1jbG91ZC1yZXRhaWwuanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDM2ODQvYW1hem9uLXBhY2thZ2UtaHViLWVjb21tZXJjZS1jbG91ZC1yZXRhaWwuanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：亞馬遜。</p>
<h2>這位黑馬候選人有明確的路徑成為美國最大的上市公司</h2>
<p>如果歷史重演，AI 泡沫破裂，這對微軟來説也是壞消息，微軟一直在大力投資於一個以人工智能為驅動的未來。儘管微軟的運營現金流並不像英偉達那樣過於依賴 AI，但成為首個達到 5 萬億美元估值的公司將是一個挑戰。</p>
<p>華爾街的另一家 3 萬億美元上市公司蘋果也是如此。儘管蘋果的服務部門繼續以兩位數的百分比增長，但其包括 iPhone 在內的實體設備銷售在過去兩年中停滯不前。蘋果的股票已經以十年來最昂貴的估值交易，這使得其估值再上漲 1.4 萬億美元的空間有限。</p>
<p>“七大奇蹟” 中似乎有最清晰路徑達到 5 萬億美元市值的公司是電子商務巨頭 <strong>亞馬遜</strong>（AMZN -0.22%）。</p>
<p>當大多數消費者和投資者聽到亞馬遜這個名字時，他們會想到其主導的在線市場。去年二月，eMarketer 估計亞馬遜將在 2024 年佔美國在線零售銷售的 40% 以上。儘管這個在線零售平台近三十年來一直是亞馬遜的面貌，但電子商務在現金流生成和運營收入方面的作用微乎其微。</p>
<p>亞馬遜增長潛力的絕大部分（特別是現金流的增長）來自其附屬運營部門，其中亞馬遜網絡服務（AWS）處於領先地位。</p>
<p>根據技術分析公司 Canalys 的數據，AWS 是全球領先的雲基礎設施服務平台，預計在 2024 年第三季度佔總雲支出的 33%。作為對比，亞馬遜在雲服務提供商中的支出份額超過了微軟的 Azure 和 <strong>谷歌母公司</strong>Alphabet 的 Google Cloud 的總和——而這兩者在全球雲服務支出中排名第二和第三。</p>
<p>儘管 AI 在 AWS 的增長中發揮了作用，但企業在雲服務上的支出在 AI 成為華爾街自麪包切片以來最熱門的事物之前就已經以穩定的兩位數速度增長。隨着企業雲服務支出仍處於相對早期的擴張階段，亞馬遜可以期待從這一部門獲得顯著更高的利潤率，從而顯著提升其現金流。</p>
<p>除了 AWS，亞馬遜的廣告服務和訂閲服務（例如 Prime）部門也分別以兩位數的速度增長。亞馬遜對獨家體育賽事（如週四夜足球和 NBA 直播套餐）的推動應會提升廣告需求，並支持其訂閲定價能力。</p>
<p>關鍵點在於，與微軟和英偉達不同，亞馬遜不會因人工智能泡沫破裂而受到拖累，因為它有豐富的其他催化因素。</p>
<p>最後，亞馬遜在歷史上仍然被認為是便宜的。在 2010 年代，投資者願意以 23 到 37 倍的年末現金流來購買該公司的股票。但截至 1 月 10 日收盤，亞馬遜的股票僅以 2026 年共識現金流的 13.5 倍進行估值。如果亞馬遜能夠達到 2010 年至 2019 年間持續交易的現金流年末中位數倍數，它將成為華爾街首個市值 5 萬億美元的公司。</p>

亞馬遜

<p>這篇文章討論了亞馬遜成為華爾街首個市值達到 5 萬億美元的公司的潛力，超越競爭對手如英偉達、微軟和蘋果。儘管英偉達因其與人工智能相關的產品而實現了顯著增長，但歷史趨勢表明它可能難以維持這種勢頭。相比之下，亞馬遜的增長主要得益於其雲服務，特別是亞馬遜網絡服務（AWS），該服務佔據了顯著的市場份額。文章強調了科技估值的波動性以及公司在利用人工智能等新興技術時面臨的挑戰</p>

<p>Change is perhaps the only certainty on Wall Street. Due to factors such as innovation, competition, mergers and acquisitions, bankruptcies, and legal judgments, the puzzle pieces that make up the largest publicly traded companies are constantly in flux.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>變革或許是華爾街唯一的確定性。由於創新、競爭、併購、破產和法律判決等因素，構成最大上市公司的拼圖塊不斷變化。</p>
</div><p>When 2004 came to a close, <strong>ExxonMobil</strong> was the largest publicly traded company in the <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong>, with <strong>Citigroup</strong> and <strong>General Electric</strong> also in the top 10. Today, <strong>Microsoft</strong>(MSFT -0.42%) is the only member of the end-of-2004 top 10 that's still among America's largest publicly traded companies.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2004 年結束時，<strong>埃克森美孚</strong> 是 <strong>標準普爾 500 指數</strong> 中最大的上市公司，<strong>花旗集團</strong> 和 <strong>通用電氣</strong> 也在前十名之內。如今，<strong>微軟</strong>（MSFT -0.42%）是 2004 年底前十名中唯一仍然在美國最大上市公司之列的公司。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDM2ODQvbnlzZS1mbG9vci10cmFkZXItaW52ZXN0LWJ1eS1zZWxsLW9wdGlvbnMtc3RvY2stZXhjaGFuZ2UtZ2V0dHkucG5nJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F803684%2Fnyse-floor-trader-invest-buy-sell-options-stock-exchange-getty.png&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><p>Since the midpoint of 2023, we've witnessed <strong>Apple</strong>(AAPL -1.03%), Microsoft, and semiconductor colossus <strong>Nvidia</strong>(NVDA -1.97%) all surpass the $3 trillion valuation plateau. Although Nvidia would seem like the surest bet to reach the psychologically important $5 trillion level given the rise of artificial intelligence (AI), a dark-horse candidate may have the clearest path to become Wall Street's first $5 trillion company.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自 2023 年中期以來，我們見證了 <strong>蘋果</strong>（AAPL -1.03%）、微軟和半導體巨頭 <strong>英偉達</strong>（NVDA -1.97%）都突破了 3 萬億美元的估值高峰。儘管考慮到人工智能（AI）的崛起，英偉達似乎是最有把握達到心理上重要的 5 萬億美元水平的公司，但一位黑馬候選人可能有更清晰的路徑成為華爾街首個 5 萬億美元的公司。</p>
</div><h2>Nvidia is battling against history, which has a flawless track record</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>英偉達正在與歷史抗爭，歷史有着無可挑剔的記錄</h2>
</div><p>On one hand, there's no denying that Nvidia has enjoyed a textbook operating expansion. The company's Hopper (H100) graphics processing units (GPUs) and successor Blackwell chips have been the preferred options for businesses wanting to run generative AI solutions and train large language models in their high-compute data centers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一方面，毫無疑問，英偉達享受到了教科書式的運營擴張。該公司的 Hopper（H100）圖形處理單元（GPU）和後續的 Blackwell 芯片已成為希望在其高計算數據中心運行生成性 AI 解決方案和訓練大型語言模型的企業的首選。</p>
</div><p>With demand for GPUs overwhelming supply, Nvidia has been able to command $30,000 to $40,000 for its Hopper chip, which is up to four times as much as <strong>Advanced Micro Devices</strong> has charged customers for its Instinct MI300X GPU. Having otherworldly pricing power helped to push Nvidia's gross margin to as high as 78.4% last year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由於對 GPU 的需求壓倒了供應，英偉達能夠對其 Hopper 芯片收取 30,000 到 40,000 美元的價格，這比 <strong>超微半導體</strong> 對其 Instinct MI300X GPU 收取的費用高出多達四倍。超凡的定價能力幫助英偉達將其毛利率推高至去年的 78.4%。</p>
</div><p>While the long-term outlook for AI remains encouraging and this technology has real-world applications in most industries around the globe, Nvidia's chances of becoming Wall Street's first $5 trillion company are likely going to be thwarted by history.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管 AI 的長期前景依然令人鼓舞，並且這項技術在全球大多數行業中都有實際應用，但英偉達成為華爾街首個 5 萬億美元公司的機會可能會受到歷史的阻礙。</p>
</div><p>Roughly three decades ago, the internet began going mainstream and offered businesses a new way to connect with potential customers. Though the internet did, eventually, alter the growth trajectory for corporate America is a positive way, it took years before businesses really understood how to harness these new sales and marketing channels.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>大約三十年前，互聯網開始走向主流，為企業提供了一種與潛在客户聯繫的新方式。儘管互聯網最終確實以積極的方式改變了美國企業的增長軌跡，但企業真正理解如何利用這些新的銷售和營銷渠道卻花費了多年時間。</p>
</div><p>Including the internet, every game-changing technology or innovation for 30 years has navigated its way through an early stage bubble. In simpler terms, investors have consistently overestimated how quickly a new technology/innovation would be adopted or gain widespread utility. With most companies lacking clear game plans as to how they'll maximize the return on their AI investments, it sets artificial intelligence up to be the next in a long line of bubbles.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>包括互聯網在內，過去 30 年中每一項顛覆性技術或創新都經歷了早期階段的泡沫。簡單來説，投資者一直高估了新技術/創新被採用或獲得廣泛實用的速度。由於大多數公司缺乏明確的遊戲計劃來最大化其 AI 投資的回報，這使得人工智能成為一系列泡沫中的下一個。</p>
</div><p>Since no company has benefited more directly from the AI revolution than Nvidia, the logical expectation is that its stock would be hit the hardest. Historic precedent makes it unlikely that Nvidia ascends to a $5 trillion valuation first.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由於沒有公司比英偉達更直接地受益於 AI 革命，因此合理的預期是其股票將受到最嚴重的打擊。歷史先例使得英偉達首先達到 5 萬億美元估值的可能性不大。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDM2ODQvYW1hem9uLXBhY2thZ2UtaHViLWVjb21tZXJjZS1jbG91ZC1yZXRhaWwuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F803684%2Famazon-package-hub-ecommerce-cloud-retail.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Amazon.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：亞馬遜。</p>
</div><h2>This dark-horse candidate has a clear path to become America's largest public company</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>這位黑馬候選人有明確的路徑成為美國最大的上市公司</h2>
</div><p>If history were to rhyme and the AI bubble bursts, it would also be bad news for Microsoft, which has been investing heavily in an artificial intelligence-driven future. Although Microsoft's operating cash flow isn't as overwhelmingly reliant on AI as Nvidia, being the first to reach a $5 trillion valuation would be a stretch.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果歷史重演，AI 泡沫破裂，這對微軟來説也是壞消息，微軟一直在大力投資於一個以人工智能為驅動的未來。儘管微軟的運營現金流並不像英偉達那樣過於依賴 AI，但成為首個達到 5 萬億美元估值的公司將是一個挑戰。</p>
</div><p>The same can be said for Wall Street's other $3 trillion public company, Apple. Though Apple's Services segment continues to grow by a double-digit percentage, its physical device sales, including iPhone, have stagnated for two years. Apple stock is already trading at one of its priciest valuations in a decade, which leaves little room for its valuation to rise by another $1.4 trillion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>華爾街的另一家 3 萬億美元上市公司蘋果也是如此。儘管蘋果的服務部門繼續以兩位數的百分比增長，但其包括 iPhone 在內的實體設備銷售在過去兩年中停滯不前。蘋果的股票已經以十年來最昂貴的估值交易，這使得其估值再上漲 1.4 萬億美元的空間有限。</p>
</div><p>The &#34;Magnificent Seven&#34; component that appears to have the clearest path to a $5 trillion market cap is e-commerce juggernaut <strong>Amazon</strong>(AMZN -0.22%).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“七大奇蹟” 中似乎有最清晰路徑達到 5 萬億美元市值的公司是電子商務巨頭 <strong>亞馬遜</strong>（AMZN -0.22%）。</p>
</div><p>When most consumers and investors hear the Amazon name, they think of its dominant online marketplace. Last February, eMarketer estimated that Amazon would account for just over 40% of U.S. online retail sales in 2024. While this online retail platform has been the face of Amazon for nearly three decades, e-commerce plays a minimal role in terms of cash flow generation and operating income.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>當大多數消費者和投資者聽到亞馬遜這個名字時，他們會想到其主導的在線市場。去年二月，eMarketer 估計亞馬遜將在 2024 年佔美國在線零售銷售的 40% 以上。儘管這個在線零售平台近三十年來一直是亞馬遜的面貌，但電子商務在現金流生成和運營收入方面的作用微乎其微。</p>
</div><p>The lion's share of Amazon's growth potential (specifically growth in cash flow) originates from its ancillary operating segments, with Amazon Web Services (AWS) at the front of the pack.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>亞馬遜增長潛力的絕大部分（特別是現金流的增長）來自其附屬運營部門，其中亞馬遜網絡服務（AWS）處於領先地位。</p>
</div><p>Based on data from tech-analysis firm Canalys, AWS is the world's leading cloud infrastructure service platform, with an estimated 33% share of total cloud spending during the third quarter of 2024. For context, Amazon's share of spending among cloud-service providers is more than Microsoft's Azure and <strong>Alphabet</strong>'s Google Cloud, <em>combined</em> -- and these are the No's 2 and 3 in global cloud-service spending.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根據技術分析公司 Canalys 的數據，AWS 是全球領先的雲基礎設施服務平台，預計在 2024 年第三季度佔總雲支出的 33%。作為對比，亞馬遜在雲服務提供商中的支出份額超過了微軟的 Azure 和 <strong>谷歌母公司</strong>Alphabet 的 Google Cloud 的總和——而這兩者在全球雲服務支出中排名第二和第三。</p>
</div><p>Even though AI has played a role in AWS's growth, enterprise spending on cloud services was growing at a steady double-digit pace long before AI became the hottest thing since sliced bread on Wall Street. With enterprise cloud-service spending still in its relatively early stages of expansion, Amazon can expect substantially higher margins from this segment to meaningfully boost its cash flow.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管 AI 在 AWS 的增長中發揮了作用，但企業在雲服務上的支出在 AI 成為華爾街自麪包切片以來最熱門的事物之前就已經以穩定的兩位數速度增長。隨着企業雲服務支出仍處於相對早期的擴張階段，亞馬遜可以期待從這一部門獲得顯著更高的利潤率，從而顯著提升其現金流。</p>
</div><p>Beyond AWS, Amazon's advertising services and subscription services (e.g., Prime) segments are also respectively growing by double digits. Amazon's push into exclusive sporting events ( <em>Thursday Night Football</em> and NBA streaming packages) should improve demand for advertising, as well as support its subscription pricing power.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>除了 AWS，亞馬遜的廣告服務和訂閲服務（例如 Prime）部門也分別以兩位數的速度增長。亞馬遜對獨家體育賽事（如週四夜足球和 NBA 直播套餐）的推動應會提升廣告需求，並支持其訂閲定價能力。</p>
</div><p>The key point is that, unlike Microsoft and Nvidia, Amazon wouldn't be dragged down by the AI bubble bursting thanks to its abundance of other catalysts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>關鍵點在於，與微軟和英偉達不同，亞馬遜不會因人工智能泡沫破裂而受到拖累，因為它有豐富的其他催化因素。</p>
</div><p>Lastly, Amazon remains historically inexpensive. Throughout the 2010s, investors willingly paid 23 to 37 times year-end cash flow to own shares of the company. But as of the closing bell on Jan. 10, Amazon's shares are valued at just 13.5 times consensus cash flow for 2026. If Amazon were to reach the median year-end multiple to cash flow it traded at consistently from 2010 through 2019, it would become Wall Street's first $5 trillion company.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最後，亞馬遜在歷史上仍然被認為是便宜的。在 2010 年代，投資者願意以 23 到 37 倍的年末現金流來購買該公司的股票。但截至 1 月 10 日收盤，亞馬遜的股票僅以 2026 年共識現金流的 13.5 倍進行估值。如果亞馬遜能夠達到 2010 年至 2019 年間持續交易的現金流年末中位數倍數，它將成為華爾街首個市值 5 萬億美元的公司。</p>
</div>

Prediction: This Will Be Wall Street's First $5 Trillion Company -- and It's Not Nvidia

- 華爾街的變化是唯一的確定性，受創新、競爭等因素影響。  
- 目前，微軟是 2004 年末前十名中唯一仍在的公司，亞馬遜有望成為首個市值 5 萬億美元的公司。  
- 亞馬遜的雲服務和廣告業務增長強勁，且估值相對便宜，具備多重增長動力。  

Motley Fool

預測：這將是華爾街的第一家市值達到 5 萬億美元的公司——而且不是 Nvidia