<p>談到半導體股票時，似乎所有人都在談論 <strong>Nvidia</strong>。隨着該公司新款 Blackwell 圖形處理單元（GPU）架構的推出，我並不特別驚訝華爾街對 Nvidia 的看法依然樂觀。</p>
<p>但在背後，<strong>Advanced Micro Devices</strong>（AMD 1.10%）在 GPU 領域悄然追趕 Nvidia——這些高性能芯片被廣泛應用於許多人工智能（AI）應用中——儘管 Nvidia 的市場主導地位依然強大。接下來，我將分析 AMD 的整體情況，並闡述我認為在未來 10 年內該股票比 Nvidia 更值得購買的理由。</p>
<h2>這是大家對 AMD 忽視的事實</h2>
<p>下表列出了 AMD 和 Nvidia 在第三季度的收入和毛利潤增長數據。</p>
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>公司</th>
<th>收入增長（% 年同比）</th>
<th>毛利潤增長（% 年同比）</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>AMD</td>
<td>18%</td>
<td>24%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Nvidia</td>
<td>94%</td>
<td>95%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>數據來源：AMD 和 Nvidia 投資者關係。</p>
<p>Nvidia 不僅是一個比 AMD 大得多的企業，其銷售和利潤率的增長速度也快得多。儘管這可能暗示 AMD 遠遠落後於競爭對手，但我認為上述增長數據有些誤導。</p>
<p>如果你查看下方的分部門結果圖表，就會清楚 AMD 的數據中心業務正在蓬勃發展。不幸的是，該公司的遊戲和嵌入式部門在銷售和毛利潤上都在下降，從而拖累了公司的整體業績。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDM3MDcvYW1kLXEzLXNlZ21lbnQtcmVzdWx0cy5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDM3MDcvYW1kLXEzLXNlZ21lbnQtcmVzdWx0cy5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：AMD。</p>
<p>更令人鼓舞的是，AMD 的數據中心收入現在幾乎以與 Nvidia 相同的速度增長。換句話説，Nvidia 的數據中心 GPU 業務的增長正在放緩，而 AMD 的業務則開始顯示出擴張的跡象。</p>
<h2>當不確定時，放遠目光</h2>
<p>根據 Jon Peddie Research 彙編的數據，Nvidia 在 AI GPU 市場上佔據了驚人的 90% 的份額。排在第二位的是 AMD，市場份額估計為 10%。</p>
<p>與我上面分析的增長數據類似，我認為 Nvidia 對 GPU 市場的緊握有些誤導。在過去兩年中，Nvidia 在數據中心 GPU 領域幾乎沒有競爭。這一先發優勢在公司獲得顯著市場份額的過程中發揮了重要作用。</p>
<p>然而，在 2023 年 12 月，AMD 推出了 MI300 系列 AI 加速器，旨在開始與 Nvidia 的 GPU 進行更直接的競爭。在短短一年內，AMD 已經能夠擴展自己的數據中心 GPU 業務，並獲得足夠的增量市場份額，以對 Nvidia 的增長產生影響。</p>
<p>考慮到 AMD 已經有一系列繼任 GPU 架構計劃在今年到 2026 年之間發佈，我認為該公司正朝着成為 Nvidia 的挑戰者的方向發展。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDM3MDcvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTQ4MDYzMzI0MC0yLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDM3MDcvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTQ4MDYzMzI0MC0yLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>AMD 的估值太具吸引力，無法錯過</h2>
<p>對我來説，投資 AMD 不應該圍繞你是否認為該公司會超越 Nvidia 或在 GPU 領域成為更大玩家來進行。相反，通過仔細審視本文探討的趨勢，我認為可以合理地認為 AMD 正處於指數增長的早期階段，而 Nvidia 在未來十年的軌跡可能會放緩。</p>
<p>儘管如此，市場似乎完全低估了這一敍述。就在我寫這篇文章時，AMD 的前瞻市盈率（P/E）為 23——這是過去一年中的最低水平。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/0d3ad00a0b72b035e042a7ae5d515990.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/0d3ad00a0b72b035e042a7ae5d515990.png"/></p>
<p>AMD 市盈率（前瞻）數據來源於 YCharts</p>
<p>在我看來，AMD 的數據中心業務最終將達到一個點，其加速增長將佔據主導地位，沖淡其他非核心部門（如遊戲）的疲軟表現。同時，AMD 加速器的更廣泛採用應有助於公司在 GPU 市場上繼續獲得增量市場份額。</p>
<p>如果這一切得以實現，圍繞 AMD 的敍述可能會迅速改變，股價可能會開始復甦，因為投資者湧向 Nvidia 之外的新增長機會。我認為現在是利用當前價格走勢並在 AMD 股票上買入的良機。</p>

<p>這篇文章討論了超微半導體（AMD）作為半導體股票的投資潛力，認為在未來十年內，AMD 可能比英偉達更值得購買。儘管英偉達在人工智能 GPU 市場佔據主導地位，但 AMD 在其數據中心業務上顯示出增長，正在逐漸追趕英偉達。作者認為，AMD 目前的低估值提供了一個有利可圖的購買機會，因為其增長軌跡可能會改善，而英偉達的增長可能會放緩。投資者被鼓勵考慮將 AMD 作為一個可行的長期投資</p>

<p>When it comes to semiconductor stocks, it seems like all anyone can talk about is <strong>Nvidia</strong>. With the launch of the company's new Blackwell graphic processing unit (GPU) architecture underway, I'm not particularly surprised that Wall Street remains largely bullish on Nvidia.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>談到半導體股票時，似乎所有人都在談論 <strong>Nvidia</strong>。隨着該公司新款 Blackwell 圖形處理單元（GPU）架構的推出，我並不特別驚訝華爾街對 Nvidia 的看法依然樂觀。</p>
</div><p>But in the background, <strong>Advanced Micro Devices</strong>(AMD 1.10%) is quietly gaining some ground on Nvidia in GPUs -- the high-powered chips used in many artificial intelligence (AI) applications -- despite the incumbent's dominating presence. Below, I'm going to analyze the full picture at AMD and make the case for why I think the stock is a better buy than Nvidia during the next 10 years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但在背後，<strong>Advanced Micro Devices</strong>（AMD 1.10%）在 GPU 領域悄然追趕 Nvidia——這些高性能芯片被廣泛應用於許多人工智能（AI）應用中——儘管 Nvidia 的市場主導地位依然強大。接下來，我將分析 AMD 的整體情況，並闡述我認為在未來 10 年內該股票比 Nvidia 更值得購買的理由。</p>
</div><h2>Here is what everyone is missing about AMD</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>這是大家對 AMD 忽視的事實</h2>
</div><p>The table below breaks down revenue and gross profit growth figures for both AMD and Nvidia during the third quarter.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>下表列出了 AMD 和 Nvidia 在第三季度的收入和毛利潤增長數據。</p>
</div><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Company</th>
<th>Revenue Growth (% Year Over Year)</th>
<th>Gross Profit Growth (% Year Over Year)</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>AMD</td>
<td>18%</td>
<td>24%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Nvidia</td>
<td>94%</td>
<td>95%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<div class="lb-trans"><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>公司</th>
<th>收入增長（% 年同比）</th>
<th>毛利潤增長（% 年同比）</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>AMD</td>
<td>18%</td>
<td>24%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Nvidia</td>
<td>94%</td>
<td>95%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div><p>Data source: AMD and Nvidia investor relations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>數據來源：AMD 和 Nvidia 投資者關係。</p>
</div><p>Not only is Nvidia a much larger business than AMD, but its sales and profit margins are growing at a much faster pace. Although this may imply that AMD is far behind its rival, I see the growth figures above as a bit of an illusion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Nvidia 不僅是一個比 AMD 大得多的企業，其銷售和利潤率的增長速度也快得多。儘管這可能暗示 AMD 遠遠落後於競爭對手，但我認為上述增長數據有些誤導。</p>
</div><p>If you look at the segmented results in the chart below, it becomes clear that AMD's data center business is thriving. Unfortunately, the company's gaming and embedded segments are declining across sales and gross profit -- thereby dragging down the company's overall results.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果你查看下方的分部門結果圖表，就會清楚 AMD 的數據中心業務正在蓬勃發展。不幸的是，該公司的遊戲和嵌入式部門在銷售和毛利潤上都在下降，從而拖累了公司的整體業績。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDM3MDcvYW1kLXEzLXNlZ21lbnQtcmVzdWx0cy5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F803707%2Famd-q3-segment-results.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: AMD.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：AMD。</p>
</div><p>What's even more encouraging is that AMD's data center revenue is now growing at nearly the same rate as Nvidia's. In other words, growth from Nvidia's data center GPU operation is decelerating at the same time AMD's is beginning to show signs of scaling.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>更令人鼓舞的是，AMD 的數據中心收入現在幾乎以與 Nvidia 相同的速度增長。換句話説，Nvidia 的數據中心 GPU 業務的增長正在放緩，而 AMD 的業務則開始顯示出擴張的跡象。</p>
</div><h2>When in doubt, zoom out</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>當不確定時，放遠目光</h2>
</div><p>According to data compiled by Jon Peddie Research, Nvidia controls a staggering 90% of the AI GPU market. Coming in at a very distant second is AMD, which boasts an estimated 10% market share.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根據 Jon Peddie Research 彙編的數據，Nvidia 在 AI GPU 市場上佔據了驚人的 90% 的份額。排在第二位的是 AMD，市場份額估計為 10%。</p>
</div><p>Similar to the growth figures I analyzed above, I see Nvidia's tight grip on the GPU market as somewhat misleading. For much of the past two years, Nvidia did not have any competition in the data center GPU sector. This first-mover advantage played a huge role in the company's ability to grab significant market share.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>與我上面分析的增長數據類似，我認為 Nvidia 對 GPU 市場的緊握有些誤導。在過去兩年中，Nvidia 在數據中心 GPU 領域幾乎沒有競爭。這一先發優勢在公司獲得顯著市場份額的過程中發揮了重要作用。</p>
</div><p>However, in December 2023, AMD introduced its MI300 series of AI accelerators in an effort to start competing more directly with Nvidia's GPUs. In just one year, AMD has been able to scale its own data center GPU operation and acquire just enough incremental market share to make a dent in Nvidia's growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，在 2023 年 12 月，AMD 推出了 MI300 系列 AI 加速器，旨在開始與 Nvidia 的 GPU 進行更直接的競爭。在短短一年內，AMD 已經能夠擴展自己的數據中心 GPU 業務，並獲得足夠的增量市場份額，以對 Nvidia 的增長產生影響。</p>
</div><p>Considering AMD already has a line of successor GPU architectures scheduled to release between this year and 2026, I think the company is well on its way to becoming a challenger to Nvidia.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>考慮到 AMD 已經有一系列繼任 GPU 架構計劃在今年到 2026 年之間發佈，我認為該公司正朝着成為 Nvidia 的挑戰者的方向發展。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDM3MDcvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTQ4MDYzMzI0MC0yLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F803707%2Fgettyimages-1480633240-2.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>AMD's valuation is too good to pass up</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>AMD 的估值太具吸引力，無法錯過</h2>
</div><p>To me, an investment in AMD shouldn't revolve around whether you think the company will surpass Nvidia or become a larger player in the GPU realm. Rather, by taking a hard look at the trends explored throughout this article, I think there is a valid case to be made that AMD is in the early stages of exponential growth whereas Nvidia's trajectory during the next decade could slow.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>對我來説，投資 AMD 不應該圍繞你是否認為該公司會超越 Nvidia 或在 GPU 領域成為更大玩家來進行。相反，通過仔細審視本文探討的趨勢，我認為可以合理地認為 AMD 正處於指數增長的早期階段，而 Nvidia 在未來十年的軌跡可能會放緩。</p>
</div><p>Nevertheless, the market appears to be discounting this narrative entirely. As I write this, AMD is trading at a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of 23 -- its lowest level in a year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管如此，市場似乎完全低估了這一敍述。就在我寫這篇文章時，AMD 的前瞻市盈率（P/E）為 23——這是過去一年中的最低水平。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/0d3ad00a0b72b035e042a7ae5d515990.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/0d3ad00a0b72b035e042a7ae5d515990.png"/></p>
<p>AMD PE Ratio (Forward) data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>AMD 市盈率（前瞻）數據來源於 YCharts</p>
</div><p>In my eyes, AMD's data center business will eventually reach a point at which its accelerating growth takes over and washes out any sluggish activity in other non-core segments such as gaming. At the same time, wider adoption of AMD's accelerators should help the company continue acquiring incremental market share in the GPU landscape.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在我看來，AMD 的數據中心業務最終將達到一個點，其加速增長將佔據主導地位，沖淡其他非核心部門（如遊戲）的疲軟表現。同時，AMD 加速器的更廣泛採用應有助於公司在 GPU 市場上繼續獲得增量市場份額。</p>
</div><p>Should this play out, the narrative surrounding AMD could quickly change and the shares could begin to witness some revival as investors flock toward a new growth opportunity beyond Nvidia. I think now is a lucrative time to take advantage of the current price action and buy the dip in AMD stock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果這一切得以實現，圍繞 AMD 的敍述可能會迅速改變，股價可能會開始復甦，因為投資者湧向 Nvidia 之外的新增長機會。我認為現在是利用當前價格走勢並在 AMD 股票上買入的良機。</p>
</div>

A Once-in-a-Decade Investment Opportunity: 1 Artificial Intelligence (AI) Semiconductor Stock to Buy Hand Over Fist and Hold for the Next 10 Years (Hint: It's Not Nvidia)

- AMD 在數據中心業務上增長迅速，接近 Nvidia 的增速。  
- 儘管 Nvidia 市場份額高達 90%，但 AMD 正逐步擴大市場影響力。  
- 當前 AMD 的估值較低，投資者可考慮在此時買入。

Motley Fool

十年一遇的投資機會：一隻人工智能（AI）半導體股票，值得大舉買入並持有未來 10 年（提示：不是英偉達）