<p>當 2024 年落幕時，投資者們都面帶微笑。成熟的以股票為驅動的 <strong>道瓊斯工業平均指數</strong>、基準 <strong>標準普爾 500 指數</strong> 和以增長為動力的 <strong>納斯達克綜合指數</strong> 分別上漲了 13%、23% 和 29%。</p>
<p>推動華爾街牛市第二年的多個催化因素，包括唐納德·特朗普在 11 月的勝利（他在白宮的第一任期內股市飆升）以及圍繞股票拆分的興奮。但最重要的因素是與人工智能（AI）崛起相關的狂熱情緒。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDM3MTEvc3RvY2stY2hhcnQtY3Jhc2gtY29ycmVjdGlvbi1wbHVuZ2UtYm91bmNlLWJlYXItbWFya2V0LWJhci10cmVuZC1pbnZlc3QtY3J5cHRvLWdldHR5LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDM3MTEvc3RvY2stY2hhcnQtY3Jhc2gtY29ycmVjdGlvbi1wbHVuZ2UtYm91bmNlLWJlYXItbWFya2V0LWJhci10cmVuZC1pbnZlc3QtY3J5cHRvLWdldHR5LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<p>通過賦能軟件和系統，使其在任務上變得更加高效並可能學習新技能，這項技術的潛力幾乎沒有上限。在《Sizing the Prize》中，普華永道的分析師預測，到 2030 年，人工智能將為全球國內生產總值帶來 15.7 萬億美元的增長。</p>
<p>沒有哪家公司比半導體巨頭 <strong>英偉達</strong>（NVIDIA）更直接地受益於人工智能革命。自 2023 年開始以來，英偉達的股票市值增加了大約 3 萬億美元，截至 1 月 10 日，股價上漲了 830%。</p>
<p>但英偉達的這種飛速增長是否過於美好而不真實？讓我們讓歷史來最終判斷英偉達的股票在 2025 年是否會跌破每股 100 美元。</p>
<h2>英偉達的運營擴張教科書般</h2>
<p>在深入探討未來的細節之前，瞭解我們如何走到這一步的動態是很重要的。英偉達短暫成為美國最大上市公司的崛起，完全歸功於其在高計算數據中心中作為 “核心” 的領先角色。</p>
<p>根據半導體分析公司 TechInsights 進行的一項研究，2022 年和 2023 年的數據中心圖形處理單元（GPU）出貨量分別為 267 萬台和 385 萬台。英偉達的 GPU 在 2022 年和 2023 年分別佔據了出貨量的絕大部分，僅有 30,000 台和 90,000 台的出貨量不是來自英偉達。企業對其 Hopper（H100）芯片和下一代 Blackwell GPU 架構的需求簡直無法滿足。</p>
<p>對公司硬件的強烈需求帶來了切實的好處。由於需求超過供應，英偉達對其超受歡迎的 Hopper GPU 的定價在 30,000 到 40,000 美元之間。作為對比，這遠高於 <strong>超微半導體</strong>（AMD）為其 Instinct MI300X GPU 所定的 10,000 到 15,000 美元的價格。更高的價格意味着英偉達的毛利率顯著上升。</p>
<p>此外，該公司的 CUDA 軟件平台在保持客户對其產品和服務生態系統的忠誠方面發揮了關鍵作用。CUDA 是開發者用來最大化其英偉達 GPU 計算潛力和構建大型語言模型的工具包。</p>
<p>最後，英偉達受益於成為美國最具影響力企業的首選 AI-GPU 供應商。其按淨銷售額計算的頂級客户包括許多 “七大巨頭” 的成員，如 <strong>微軟</strong>、<strong>Meta Platforms</strong>、<strong>亞馬遜</strong> 和 <strong>Alphabet</strong>。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDM3MTEvc3RvY2stY2hhcnQtY3Jhc2gtaW52ZXN0LWJyb2tlci10YWJsZXQtY3J5cHRvLXBsdW5nZS1idWJibGUtZ2V0dHkuanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDM3MTEvc3RvY2stY2hhcnQtY3Jhc2gtaW52ZXN0LWJyb2tlci10YWJsZXQtY3J5cHRvLXBsdW5nZS1idWJibGUtZ2V0dHkuanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>歷史對英偉達的拋物線式上漲的影響</h2>
<p>現在你對英偉達的過去有了更好的瞭解，並且知道我們是如何走到現在每股接近 136 美元的交易價格，讓我們藉助歷史作為指南。</p>
<p>無論下一個顛覆性技術、創新或趨勢在過去幾十年中多麼有前景，總有競爭者在一旁等待着分一杯羹。</p>
<p>目前，英偉達是 AI 加速數據中心中無可爭議的 GPU 供應商。然而，其壟斷般的市場份額幾乎肯定會隨着新競爭者的進入而減弱。例如，AMD 正在加大 MI300X 和新推出的 MI325X 的產量，這些產品的價格明顯低於英偉達的芯片，並且可能更易獲得。那些不想等待英偉達積壓訂單的企業可能會考慮像 AMD 這樣的低成本替代品。</p>
<p>此外，按淨銷售額計算，英偉達的頂級客户都在開發用於其數據中心的 AI 芯片。儘管微軟、Meta、亞馬遜和 Alphabet 內部開發的芯片無法與英偉達的 Hopper 和 Blackwell GPU 的計算速度相匹配，但它們會更便宜且更容易獲得。換句話説，這開始減少了推動英偉達定價權和毛利率改善的 AI-GPU 稀缺性。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/91bcdf4060fab53a648a7ccb01930801.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/91bcdf4060fab53a648a7ccb01930801.png"/></p>
<p>AI-GPU 稀缺性的結束可能會對英偉達的毛利率產生壓力。NVDA 毛利率（季度）數據來源於 YCharts。</p>
<p>除了歷史告訴我們競爭是不可避免的外，過去三十年中下一個大趨勢投資的市場領導者已經設定了一個令人擔憂的先例。</p>
<p>在 1990 年代中期，互聯網的普及開始為企業與客户之間提供新的連接方式。然而，許多公司需要很多年才能意識到如何最好地將其在線商店貨幣化。儘管互聯網積極改變了美國企業的增長軌跡，但這發生在互聯網泡沫破裂之後。</p>
<p>泡沫破裂事件與下一個大趨勢投資之間始終是相輔相成的，毫無例外。儘管這不是一個全面的列表，但我們已經見證了基因解碼、企業對企業電子商務、納米技術、3D 打印、區塊鏈技術和元宇宙等領域的泡沫破裂。</p>
<p>這些高價值可尋址趨勢的共同特徵是投資者高估了技術或創新的採用和早期階段的實用性。每一種顛覆性技術/創新都需要時間來成熟，而目前看來人工智能尚未達到這一點。大多數企業仍然缺乏明確的遊戲計劃，來説明他們將如何在人工智能投資中獲得正回報。</p>
<p>根據歷史經驗，下一波重大趨勢的市場領導者在泡沫破裂時通常會在峯值到谷底的基礎上損失 80% 或更多的價值。幸運的是，對於英偉達來説，它擁有成熟的運營部門——例如用於遊戲和加密貨幣挖礦的 GPU，以及虛擬化軟件——這些可能會減緩其下跌。</p>
<p>然而，歷史非常清楚，下一波重大趨勢的市場領導者在早期階段的拋物線式上漲並不可持續，這使得英偉達股票在 2025 年跌破 100 美元成為一個非常現實的可能性。</p>

英偉達

<p>英偉達的股票自 2023 年初以來已上漲 830%，這得益於人工智能的繁榮和對其 GPU 的高需求。然而，來自 AMD 等公司的競爭正在加劇，這可能會影響英偉達的市場份額和定價能力。歷史趨勢表明，市場領導者在新競爭者出現時往往面臨挑戰。分析師們正在質疑到 2025 年英偉達的股票是否會跌破 100 美元，考慮到競爭加劇和需求動態變化的潛在可能性</p>

<p>When the curtain closed on 2024, investors were all smiles. The mature stock-driven <strong>Dow Jones Industrial Average</strong>, benchmark <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong>, and growth-fueled <strong>Nasdaq Composite</strong> ended last year higher by 13%, 23%, and 29%, respectively.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>當 2024 年落幕時，投資者們都面帶微笑。成熟的以股票為驅動的 <strong>道瓊斯工業平均指數</strong>、基準 <strong>標準普爾 500 指數</strong> 和以增長為動力的 <strong>納斯達克綜合指數</strong> 分別上漲了 13%、23% 和 29%。</p>
</div><p>A number of catalysts powered year two of Wall Street's bull market rally, such as Donald Trump's November victory (stocks soared during his first term in the White House) and excitement surrounding stock splits. But at the top of the list is the euphoria associated with the rise of artificial intelligence (AI).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>推動華爾街牛市第二年的多個催化因素，包括唐納德·特朗普在 11 月的勝利（他在白宮的第一任期內股市飆升）以及圍繞股票拆分的興奮。但最重要的因素是與人工智能（AI）崛起相關的狂熱情緒。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDM3MTEvc3RvY2stY2hhcnQtY3Jhc2gtY29ycmVjdGlvbi1wbHVuZ2UtYm91bmNlLWJlYXItbWFya2V0LWJhci10cmVuZC1pbnZlc3QtY3J5cHRvLWdldHR5LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F803711%2Fstock-chart-crash-correction-plunge-bounce-bear-market-bar-trend-invest-crypto-getty.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><p>Empowering software and systems with AI so they can become more proficient at their tasks and potentially learn new skills gives this technology a stratospheric ceiling. In <em>Sizing the Prize</em>, the analysts at PwC forecast a $15.7 trillion boost to global gross domestic product from AI by 2030.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>通過賦能軟件和系統，使其在任務上變得更加高效並可能學習新技能，這項技術的潛力幾乎沒有上限。在《Sizing the Prize》中，普華永道的分析師預測，到 2030 年，人工智能將為全球國內生產總值帶來 15.7 萬億美元的增長。</p>
</div><p>No company has been a more direct beneficiary of the AI revolution than semiconductor giant <strong>Nvidia</strong>(NVDA -1.10%). Since 2023 began, Nvidia stock has added roughly $3 trillion in market value, with shares up a cool 830%, as of Jan. 10.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>沒有哪家公司比半導體巨頭 <strong>英偉達</strong>（NVIDIA）更直接地受益於人工智能革命。自 2023 年開始以來，英偉達的股票市值增加了大約 3 萬億美元，截至 1 月 10 日，股價上漲了 830%。</p>
</div><p>But is this breakneck climb for Nvidia too good to be true? Let's allow history to be the ultimate judge of whether or not Nvidia stock can fall below $100 per share in 2025.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但英偉達的這種飛速增長是否過於美好而不真實？讓我們讓歷史來最終判斷英偉達的股票在 2025 年是否會跌破每股 100 美元。</p>
</div><h2>Nvidia's operating expansion has been textbook</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>英偉達的運營擴張教科書般</h2>
</div><p>Before digging into the details of what's to come, it's important to understand the dynamics of how we got here. Nvidia's ascension to briefly becoming America's largest publicly traded company is all about its leading role as the &#34;brains&#34; of high-compute data centers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在深入探討未來的細節之前，瞭解我們如何走到這一步的動態是很重要的。英偉達短暫成為美國最大上市公司的崛起，完全歸功於其在高計算數據中心中作為 “核心” 的領先角色。</p>
</div><p>Based on a study conducted by semiconductor analysis firm TechInsights, data-center graphics processing unit (GPU) shipments in 2022 and 2023 respectively totaled 2.67 million units and 3.85 million units. Nvidia's GPUs were responsible for all but 30,000 GPUs shipped in 2022 and 90,000 GPUs shipped in 2023. Businesses simply can't get enough of its Hopper (H100) chip and next-generation Blackwell GPU architecture.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根據半導體分析公司 TechInsights 進行的一項研究，2022 年和 2023 年的數據中心圖形處理單元（GPU）出貨量分別為 267 萬台和 385 萬台。英偉達的 GPU 在 2022 年和 2023 年分別佔據了出貨量的絕大部分，僅有 30,000 台和 90,000 台的出貨量不是來自英偉達。企業對其 Hopper（H100）芯片和下一代 Blackwell GPU 架構的需求簡直無法滿足。</p>
</div><p>Insatiable demand for the company's hardware has led to tangible benefits. With demand swamping supply, Nvidia has been charging between $30,000 and $40,000 for its ultra-popular Hopper GPU. For context, this is well above the $10,000 to $15,000 price point <strong>Advanced Micro Devices</strong>(AMD -1.05%) was netting for its Instinct MI300X GPU. A higher price point translates to a notable uptick in Nvidia's gross margin.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>對公司硬件的強烈需求帶來了切實的好處。由於需求超過供應，英偉達對其超受歡迎的 Hopper GPU 的定價在 30,000 到 40,000 美元之間。作為對比，這遠高於 <strong>超微半導體</strong>（AMD）為其 Instinct MI300X GPU 所定的 10,000 到 15,000 美元的價格。更高的價格意味着英偉達的毛利率顯著上升。</p>
</div><p>Furthermore, the company's CUDA software platform has played a key role in keeping customers loyal to its ecosystem of products and services. CUDA is the toolkit developers rely on to maximize the computing potential of their Nvidia GPUs and to build large language models.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，該公司的 CUDA 軟件平台在保持客户對其產品和服務生態系統的忠誠方面發揮了關鍵作用。CUDA 是開發者用來最大化其英偉達 GPU 計算潛力和構建大型語言模型的工具包。</p>
</div><p>Lastly, Nvidia has benefited from being the preferred AI-GPU supplier of America's most-influential businesses. It's top customers by net sales include many members of the &#34;Magnificent Seven,&#34; such as <strong>Microsoft</strong>, <strong>Meta Platforms</strong>, <strong>Amazon</strong>, and <strong>Alphabet</strong>.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最後，英偉達受益於成為美國最具影響力企業的首選 AI-GPU 供應商。其按淨銷售額計算的頂級客户包括許多 “七大巨頭” 的成員，如 <strong>微軟</strong>、<strong>Meta Platforms</strong>、<strong>亞馬遜</strong> 和 <strong>Alphabet</strong>。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDM3MTEvc3RvY2stY2hhcnQtY3Jhc2gtaW52ZXN0LWJyb2tlci10YWJsZXQtY3J5cHRvLXBsdW5nZS1idWJibGUtZ2V0dHkuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F803711%2Fstock-chart-crash-invest-broker-tablet-crypto-plunge-bubble-getty.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>History weighs in on Nvidia's parabolic move higher</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>歷史對英偉達的拋物線式上漲的影響</h2>
</div><p>Now that you have a better idea of where Nvidia has been and how we got to this point where it's trading at nearly $136 per share, let's lean on history as a guide.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>現在你對英偉達的過去有了更好的瞭解，並且知道我們是如何走到現在每股接近 136 美元的交易價格，讓我們藉助歷史作為指南。</p>
</div><p>Regardless of how promising the next game-changing technology, innovation, or trend has been over the last couple of decades, there has always been competition waiting in the wings for its chance at a piece of the proverbial pie.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>無論下一個顛覆性技術、創新或趨勢在過去幾十年中多麼有前景，總有競爭者在一旁等待着分一杯羹。</p>
</div><p>For the time being, Nvidia is the undisputed provider of GPUs in AI-accelerated data centers. However, its monopoly like market share is virtually certain to ebb as new competition enters the arena. AMD, for example, is ramping up output of the MI300X and newly introduced MI325X, which are notably cheaper than Nvidia's chips and likely more accessible. Businesses that aren't interested in waiting for Nvidia's backlog to clear may consider less-costly alternatives like AMD.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前，英偉達是 AI 加速數據中心中無可爭議的 GPU 供應商。然而，其壟斷般的市場份額幾乎肯定會隨着新競爭者的進入而減弱。例如，AMD 正在加大 MI300X 和新推出的 MI325X 的產量，這些產品的價格明顯低於英偉達的芯片，並且可能更易獲得。那些不想等待英偉達積壓訂單的企業可能會考慮像 AMD 這樣的低成本替代品。</p>
</div><p>Additionally, Nvidia's top customers by net sales are all developing AI chips to use in their data centers. Although the chips Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, and Alphabet are internally developing won't match the computing speed of Nvidia's Hopper and Blackwell GPUs, they'll be cheaper and more readily available. In other words, it begins minimizing the AI-GPU scarcity that's fueled the lion's share of Nvidia's pricing power and gross margin improvement.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，按淨銷售額計算，英偉達的頂級客户都在開發用於其數據中心的 AI 芯片。儘管微軟、Meta、亞馬遜和 Alphabet 內部開發的芯片無法與英偉達的 Hopper 和 Blackwell GPU 的計算速度相匹配，但它們會更便宜且更容易獲得。換句話説，這開始減少了推動英偉達定價權和毛利率改善的 AI-GPU 稀缺性。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/91bcdf4060fab53a648a7ccb01930801.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/91bcdf4060fab53a648a7ccb01930801.png"/></p>
<p>An end to AI-GPU scarcity would likely weigh on Nvidia's gross margin. NVDA Gross Profit Margin (Quarterly) data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>AI-GPU 稀缺性的結束可能會對英偉達的毛利率產生壓力。NVDA 毛利率（季度）數據來源於 YCharts。</p>
</div><p>On top of history telling us that competition is inevitable, a worrisome precedent has been set by market leaders of next-big-thing investment trends over the last three decades.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>除了歷史告訴我們競爭是不可避免的外，過去三十年中下一個大趨勢投資的市場領導者已經設定了一個令人擔憂的先例。</p>
</div><p>In the mid-1990s, the proliferation of the internet began offering new ways for businesses to connect with customers. However, it would be many years before most companies realized how best to monetize their online storefronts. Although the internet positively changed the growth trajectory for corporate America, this didn't occur until after the dot-com bubble burst.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 1990 年代中期，互聯網的普及開始為企業與客户之間提供新的連接方式。然而，許多公司需要很多年才能意識到如何最好地將其在線商店貨幣化。儘管互聯網積極改變了美國企業的增長軌跡，但這發生在互聯網泡沫破裂之後。</p>
</div><p>Bubble-bursting events and next-big-thing investment trends have gone hand-in-hand, without exception, for decades. Though not a comprehensive list, we've witnessed bubbles burst for genome decoding, business-to-business e-commerce, nanotechnology, 3D printing, blockchain technology, and the metaverse.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>泡沫破裂事件與下一個大趨勢投資之間始終是相輔相成的，毫無例外。儘管這不是一個全面的列表，但我們已經見證了基因解碼、企業對企業電子商務、納米技術、3D 打印、區塊鏈技術和元宇宙等領域的泡沫破裂。</p>
</div><p>The trait all of these high-dollar addressable trends have in common is investors overestimating the adoption and early stage utility of a technology or innovation. Every game-changing technology/innovation needs time to mature, and it doesn't appear artificial intelligence has hit this point as of yet. Most businesses still lack a clear game plan of how they're going to generate a positive return on their AI investments.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這些高價值可尋址趨勢的共同特徵是投資者高估了技術或創新的採用和早期階段的實用性。每一種顛覆性技術/創新都需要時間來成熟，而目前看來人工智能尚未達到這一點。大多數企業仍然缺乏明確的遊戲計劃，來説明他們將如何在人工智能投資中獲得正回報。</p>
</div><p>Based on what history tells us, market leaders of next-big-thing trends typically lose 80% or more of their value on a peak-to-trough basis when the bubble bursts. Thankfully for Nvidia, it has well-established operating segments -- e.g., GPUs used for gaming and cryptocurrency mining, as well as virtualization software -- that may be able to stunt its fall.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根據歷史經驗，下一波重大趨勢的市場領導者在泡沫破裂時通常會在峯值到谷底的基礎上損失 80% 或更多的價值。幸運的是，對於英偉達來説，它擁有成熟的運營部門——例如用於遊戲和加密貨幣挖礦的 GPU，以及虛擬化軟件——這些可能會減緩其下跌。</p>
</div><p>Nevertheless, history is quite clear that parabolic early stage moves higher for market leaders of next-big-thing trends aren't sustainable, which makes a move below $100 in 2025 for Nvidia stock a very real possibility.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，歷史非常清楚，下一波重大趨勢的市場領導者在早期階段的拋物線式上漲並不可持續，這使得英偉達股票在 2025 年跌破 100 美元成為一個非常現實的可能性。</p>
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Will Nvidia Stock Fall Below $100 in 2025? Here's What History Has to Say.

- 2024 年，投資者因股市上漲而歡欣鼓舞，標普 500 上漲 23%。  
- Nvidia 因 AI 需求激增，市值自 2023 年起增加約 3 萬億美元。  
- 然而，競爭加劇和市場泡沫風險可能導致 Nvidia 股價在 2025 年跌破 100 美元。

英偉達的股票會在 2025 年跌破 100 美元嗎？歷史告訴了我們什麼