<p><strong>Alphabet</strong>（GOOGL -1.35%）（GOOG -1.30%）的股票在過去一年中上漲了令人印象深刻的 34%，目前的交易價格距離歷史最高點僅有幾分之差。</p>
<p>儘管面臨日益嚴峻的監管審查以及關於其核心搜索業務在人工智能（AI）時代是否失去相關性的質疑，這家互聯網巨頭仍然持續實現強勁增長和創紀錄的盈利能力。</p>
<p>Alphabet 的股價在 2025 年能否繼續上漲？讓我們探討一下這隻股票在一年後的可能情況。</p>
<h2>一台由 AI 驅動的盈利機器</h2>
<p>Alphabet 通過廣泛的產品和服務生態系統脱穎而出。公司的旗艦搜索平台，輔以 Chrome 瀏覽器和 Android 操作系統，創造了無縫的用户體驗。其雲計算部門已成為企業服務的主要參與者，而 YouTube 則發展成為社交媒體的強大平台。Alphabet 對自動駕駛項目 Waymo 的擁有展示了其對持續創新的承諾。</p>
<p>這種廣泛的覆蓋是公司作為投資吸引力的關鍵部分，其利用協同效應支持其市場領先的廣告網絡。Alphabet 正在大力投資 AI，作為其增長戰略的關鍵部分，這已經在改善運營和財務表現方面證明了成功。新集成的 AI 驅動能力增強了用户參與度，而 AI 優化的搜索算法則致力於提升廣告轉化率。</p>
<p>最顯著的影響體現在 Google Cloud，那裏一系列 AI 和機器學習工具受到了尋求將 AI 集成到其應用程序和工作流程中的客户的極大需求。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDM4MzYvYWxwaGFiZXQtYnVsbGlzaC1vdXRsb29rLTIwMjUuanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDM4MzYvYWxwaGFiZXQtYnVsbGlzaC1vdXRsb29rLTIwMjUuanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<p>結果不僅是廣告收入的持續多元化，還有更高的運營利潤率的轉變，因為 Alphabet 展現出明顯更高科技的形象。在最新報告的期間——2024 年第三季度——收入同比增長 15%，推動每股收益（EPS）增長 37%。</p>
<p>首席執行官 Sundar Pichai 將當前趨勢描述為 “非凡的”，對公司的前景表示信心。華爾街分析師預計 2025 年將繼續保持勢頭，預計收入增長 11.6%，每股收益目標為 8.99 美元，同比大幅增長 12.5%。</p>
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>指標</th>
<th>2024 年估計</th>
<th>2025 年估計</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>收入（十億美元）</td>
<td>$350.2</td>
<td>$390.7</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>收入增長（同比）</td>
<td>13.9%</td>
<td>11.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>每股收益（EPS）</td>
<td>$7.99</td>
<td>$8.99</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>EPS 增長（同比）</td>
<td>37.8%</td>
<td>12.5%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>數據來源：Yahoo Finance。同比 = year over year。</p>
<h2>一家巨型科技公司的投資機會</h2>
<p>從許多跡象來看，Alphabet 正在全力以赴，展現出其在不斷發展的以 AI 為中心的科技領域中出色的應對能力。儘管如此，該公司在搜索和廣告等領域的成功水平和持續主導地位引起了全球監管機構的反壟斷審查，目前有幾項關於被認為是反競爭行為的調查正在進行中。</p>
<p>在美國，司法部已推動公司出售其 Chrome 瀏覽器，並裁定 Google 在搜索市場中擁有壟斷地位。與此同時，歐盟正在調查 Google AI 是否符合數據隱私法律。儘管尚未確認採取行動，但這些頭條新聞給人帶來了不確定性的陰影。</p>
<p>這種動態可能解釋了為什麼 Alphabet 的股票以 2025 年每股收益的預期市盈率（P/E）僅為 21 倍交易。這個水平相較於包括互聯網廣告同行 <strong>Meta Platforms</strong>（市盈率為 23 倍）和 <strong>Microsoft</strong>（市盈率接近 32 倍）的巨型科技公司而言，存在較大折扣。</p>
<p>儘管如此，仍然有充分的理由認為 Alphabet 在基本面上被低估。即使在公司被迫出售某一特定產品或服務的情況下，理解是股東將保留其資產的內在價值，這些資產獨立地也能獲得銷售溢價。</p>
<p>另一方面，較不激烈的結果僅要求消除某些類型的獨佔合同或新要求以促進對競爭平台的訪問，市場可能會將其視為看漲。在我看來，Alphabet 在 2025 年足夠多元化，其長期潛力依然強勁。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/0273c47ddea5ac931338aa4d955b13f1.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/0273c47ddea5ac931338aa4d955b13f1.png"/></p>
<p>GOOGL 市盈率（前瞻性）數據來源於 YCharts</p>
<h2>我對 Alphabet 股票的預測</h2>
<p>鑑於 Alphabet 強大的基本面、AI 領導地位以及相對於同行的吸引力估值，我相信其優勢超過了投資股市的現實風險。只要經濟環境保持韌性，公司就有良好的定位來實現持續的盈利增長並回報股東。我預測 Alphabet 的股價在一年內將會上漲。</p>

谷歌-A

谷歌-C

<p>Alphabet（谷歌）的股票在過去一年中上漲了 34%，接近歷史最高點，儘管面臨監管審查。該公司正在大力投資人工智能，增強其產品生態系統並推動收入增長。分析師預計 2025 年收入增長 11.6%，每股收益（EPS）增長 12.5%。Alphabet 的前瞻市盈率低於同行，暗示其可能被低估。作者預測，Alphabet 強勁的基本面和人工智能領導地位將在一年內推動其股價上漲，前提是經濟環境保持穩定</p>

<p>Shares of <strong>Alphabet</strong>(GOOGL -1.35%) (GOOG -1.30%), known for its Google subsidiary, are up an impressive 34% in the past year and currently trading just a few points from their all-time high.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>Alphabet</strong>（GOOGL -1.35%）（GOOG -1.30%）的股票在過去一年中上漲了令人印象深刻的 34%，目前的交易價格距離歷史最高點僅有幾分之差。</p>
</div><p>Despite facing heightened regulatory scrutiny and questions about whether its core search business is losing its relevancy in the age of artificial intelligence (AI), the internet giant continues to post strong growth and record profitability.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管面臨日益嚴峻的監管審查以及關於其核心搜索業務在人工智能（AI）時代是否失去相關性的質疑，這家互聯網巨頭仍然持續實現強勁增長和創紀錄的盈利能力。</p>
</div><p>Can the rally in Alphabet shares keep going in 2025? Let's explore where the stock might be in one year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Alphabet 的股價在 2025 年能否繼續上漲？讓我們探討一下這隻股票在一年後的可能情況。</p>
</div><h2>An AI-powered earnings juggernaut</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>一台由 AI 驅動的盈利機器</h2>
</div><p>Alphabet stands out through an extensive ecosystem of products and services. The company's flagship search platform, complemented by the Chrome browser and Android operating system, creates a seamless user experience. Its cloud computing division has emerged as a major player in enterprise services, while YouTube has evolved into a social media powerhouse. Alphabet's ownership of autonomous driving venture Waymo demonstrates its commitment to continued innovation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Alphabet 通過廣泛的產品和服務生態系統脱穎而出。公司的旗艦搜索平台，輔以 Chrome 瀏覽器和 Android 操作系統，創造了無縫的用户體驗。其雲計算部門已成為企業服務的主要參與者，而 YouTube 則發展成為社交媒體的強大平台。Alphabet 對自動駕駛項目 Waymo 的擁有展示了其對持續創新的承諾。</p>
</div><p>This reach is a key part of the company's allure as an investment, with its ability to leverage synergies supporting its market-leading advertising network. Alphabet is investing heavily in AI as a key part of its growth strategy, which has already proven successful in improving operating and financial performance. New AI-powered capabilities integrated across the ecosystem enhance user engagement, while AI-optimized search algorithms work to boost advertising conversion rates.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這種廣泛的覆蓋是公司作為投資吸引力的關鍵部分，其利用協同效應支持其市場領先的廣告網絡。Alphabet 正在大力投資 AI，作為其增長戰略的關鍵部分，這已經在改善運營和財務表現方面證明了成功。新集成的 AI 驅動能力增強了用户參與度，而 AI 優化的搜索算法則致力於提升廣告轉化率。</p>
</div><p>The most significant impact is evident in Google Cloud, where a suite of AI and machine learning tools has seen exceptional demand from customers seeking to integrate AI into their applications and workflows.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最顯著的影響體現在 Google Cloud，那裏一系列 AI 和機器學習工具受到了尋求將 AI 集成到其應用程序和工作流程中的客户的極大需求。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDM4MzYvYWxwaGFiZXQtYnVsbGlzaC1vdXRsb29rLTIwMjUuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F803836%2Falphabet-bullish-outlook-2025.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><p>The result is not only an ongoing diversification beyond advertising revenue but also a shift in higher operating margins as Alphabet assumes a decisively more high-tech profile. In the latest reported period -- third quarter of 2024 -- revenue climbed by 15% year over year, propelling a 37% increase in earnings per share (EPS).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>結果不僅是廣告收入的持續多元化，還有更高的運營利潤率的轉變，因為 Alphabet 展現出明顯更高科技的形象。在最新報告的期間——2024 年第三季度——收入同比增長 15%，推動每股收益（EPS）增長 37%。</p>
</div><p>CEO Sundar Pichai described current trends as &#34;extraordinary,&#34; projecting confidence in the company's forward outlook. Wall Street analysts anticipate continued momentum in 2025 with 11.6% revenue growth and an EPS target of $8.99, a solid 12.5% year-over-year increase.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>首席執行官 Sundar Pichai 將當前趨勢描述為 “非凡的”，對公司的前景表示信心。華爾街分析師預計 2025 年將繼續保持勢頭，預計收入增長 11.6%，每股收益目標為 8.99 美元，同比大幅增長 12.5%。</p>
</div><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Metric</th>
<th>2024 Estimate</th>
<th>2025 Estimate</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Revenue (in billions)</td>
<td>$350.2</td>
<td>$390.7</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Revenue growth (YOY)</td>
<td>13.9%</td>
<td>11.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Earnings per share (EPS)</td>
<td>$7.99</td>
<td>$8.99</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>EPS growth (YOY)</td>
<td>37.8%</td>
<td>12.5%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<div class="lb-trans"><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>指標</th>
<th>2024 年估計</th>
<th>2025 年估計</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>收入（十億美元）</td>
<td>$350.2</td>
<td>$390.7</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>收入增長（同比）</td>
<td>13.9%</td>
<td>11.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>每股收益（EPS）</td>
<td>$7.99</td>
<td>$8.99</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>EPS 增長（同比）</td>
<td>37.8%</td>
<td>12.5%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div><p>Data source: Yahoo Finance. YOY = year over year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>數據來源：Yahoo Finance。同比 = year over year。</p>
</div><h2>A mega-cap tech bargain</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>一家巨型科技公司的投資機會</h2>
</div><p>By many indications, Alphabet is firing on all cylinders, demonstrating its impressive ability to navigate the evolving AI-focused tech landscape. That being said, the company's success level and ongoing dominance in areas like search and advertising have drawn antitrust scrutiny from regulators worldwide, with several ongoing investigations regarding perceived anti-competitive practices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>從許多跡象來看，Alphabet 正在全力以赴，展現出其在不斷發展的以 AI 為中心的科技領域中出色的應對能力。儘管如此，該公司在搜索和廣告等領域的成功水平和持續主導地位引起了全球監管機構的反壟斷審查，目前有幾項關於被認為是反競爭行為的調查正在進行中。</p>
</div><p>In the United States, the Department of Justice has pushed for a company sale of its Chrome browser, also ruling that Google holds a monopoly in the search market. Separately, the European Union is probing Google AI's compliance with data privacy laws. While no action has been confirmed with room for appeals, the headlines cast a shadow of uncertainty.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在美國，司法部已推動公司出售其 Chrome 瀏覽器，並裁定 Google 在搜索市場中擁有壟斷地位。與此同時，歐盟正在調查 Google AI 是否符合數據隱私法律。儘管尚未確認採取行動，但這些頭條新聞給人帶來了不確定性的陰影。</p>
</div><p>That dynamic may explain why shares of Alphabet trade at just 21 times its consensus 2025 EPS as a forward price to earnings (P/E) ratio. This level represents a large discount to mega-cap tech peers, including internet advertising peer <strong>Meta Platforms</strong>, which trades at a forward P/E of 23, and <strong>Microsoft</strong>, with an earnings multiple closer to 32.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這種動態可能解釋了為什麼 Alphabet 的股票以 2025 年每股收益的預期市盈率（P/E）僅為 21 倍交易。這個水平相較於包括互聯網廣告同行 <strong>Meta Platforms</strong>（市盈率為 23 倍）和 <strong>Microsoft</strong>（市盈率接近 32 倍）的巨型科技公司而言，存在較大折扣。</p>
</div><p>Nevertheless, there is still a good argument that Alphabet is fundamentally undervalued. Even in a scenario where the company is forced to sell off a particular product or service, the understanding is that shareholders would retain the underlying value with its assets independently commanding a sales premium.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管如此，仍然有充分的理由認為 Alphabet 在基本面上被低估。即使在公司被迫出售某一特定產品或服務的情況下，理解是股東將保留其資產的內在價值，這些資產獨立地也能獲得銷售溢價。</p>
</div><p>On the other hand, a less drastic outcome that just requires the elimination of certain types of exclusive contracts or new requirements to facilitate access to competing platforms would likely be seen as bullish by the market. In my opinion, Alphabet in 2025 is sufficiently diversified that its long-term potential is as robust as ever.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另一方面，較不激烈的結果僅要求消除某些類型的獨佔合同或新要求以促進對競爭平台的訪問，市場可能會將其視為看漲。在我看來，Alphabet 在 2025 年足夠多元化，其長期潛力依然強勁。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/0273c47ddea5ac931338aa4d955b13f1.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/0273c47ddea5ac931338aa4d955b13f1.png"/></p>
<p>GOOGL PE Ratio (Forward) data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>GOOGL 市盈率（前瞻性）數據來源於 YCharts</p>
</div><h2>My prediction for Alphabet stock</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>我對 Alphabet 股票的預測</h2>
</div><p>Given Alphabet's strong fundamentals, AI leadership, and attractive valuation relative to peers, I believe its strengths outweigh the risks that are simply a reality of investing in the stock market. As long as the economic environment remains resilient, the company is well positioned to generate sustained profitable growth and reward shareholders. I predict Alphabet will be trading at a higher share price in one year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>鑑於 Alphabet 強大的基本面、AI 領導地位以及相對於同行的吸引力估值，我相信其優勢超過了投資股市的現實風險。只要經濟環境保持韌性，公司就有良好的定位來實現持續的盈利增長並回報股東。我預測 Alphabet 的股價在一年內將會上漲。</p>
</div>

Where Will Alphabet Stock Be in 1 Year?

- Alphabet 股價在過去一年上漲 34%，接近歷史高點。  
- 儘管面臨監管壓力，Alphabet 仍實現強勁增長和盈利。  
- 預計 2025 年收入增長 11.6%，每股收益目標為 $8.99。

一年後 Alphabet 的股票會處於什麼位置？