<p>在過去五年中，<strong>標準普爾 500 指數</strong>(^GSPC 1.00%) 的總回報率達到了 92%（截至 1 月 14 日）。這是一個超過歷史平均水平的驚人收益。</p>
<p>強勁的市場背景進一步提升了 <strong>蘋果</strong>(AAPL 0.75%) 的表現。自 2020 年 1 月中旬以來，這家科技巨頭的股票價格已經翻了三倍以上，包括股息。</p>
<p>該業務在全球範圍內繼續佔據主導地位。但這隻消費品股票在五年後會處於何種位置呢？</p>
<h2>硬件的重要性</h2>
<p>蘋果以銷售受歡迎的硬件設備而聞名。儘管 iPhone 已經進入第 16 代，但今天仍佔整體銷售的約一半，依然是推動財務表現的核心產品。然而，公司也開發了 MacBook、iPad、AirPods 和 Watch，並取得了巨大的成功。</p>
<p>五年前的 2019 財年，蘋果 82% 的總收入來自於產品。這並不一定是壞事，因為全球消費者對這些設備的喜愛與日俱增。這正是根據諮詢公司 Interbrand 的説法，使蘋果成為最有價值的品牌。</p>
<p>這也支持了定價能力。想想看，人們願意為一部智能手機支付四位數的金額，這真是不可思議。蘋果單槍匹馬地重新定義了這一類別，並繼續以鉅額利潤收穫回報。</p>
<h2>商業模式的轉變</h2>
<p>但蘋果的商業模式正在轉型。在 2024 財年，75% 的總收入來自於產品，其餘來自於服務。然而，後者的金額為 960 億美元，比五年前增長了 108%，增速遠快於產品。這一部分包含了多種盈利活動，包括 iCloud、廣告、AppleCare、App Store、Apple TV+、Apple Fitness+、Apple Music、Apple Arcade、Apple Pay 和 Apple Card。</p>
<p>看到公司如此發展令人鼓舞。畢竟，蘋果的服務與產品結合在一起，構成了強大的生態系統。這增強了客户忠誠度，並隨着時間的推移創造了更大的經常性收入流。</p>
<p>投資者曾擔心蘋果會在人工智能（AI）競賽中落後。但該公司終於在去年底推出了 Apple Intelligence，一套與 AI 相關的功能。歸根結底，這一舉措能否推動更多產品銷售仍然至關重要。這最終導致這些設備訂閲蘋果的服務。</p>
<p>我認為可以合理地假設，隨着時間的推移，服務和軟件將對蘋果的財務成功變得更加重要，這一趨勢將持續下去。這是件好事，因為該部門的毛利率超過 70%。</p>
<h2>蘋果的回報潛力</h2>
<p>在過去五年中，蘋果的股票價格上漲了近 200%。這一增長得益於 2019 財年到 2024 財年間每股收益（EPS）的顯著提高。</p>
<p>然而，投資者必須意識到估值也變得更加昂貴。當前蘋果的市盈率（P/E）為 38.4。五年前，即 2020 年 1 月中旬，市盈率為 25。這 54% 的擴張表明市場對該業務的情緒正在改善。在過去十年中，當前的市盈率實際上很少如此昂貴。</p>
<p>得益於其極受歡迎的產品和服務，蘋果擁有強大的品牌。而其產生自由現金流的能力令人欽佩。</p>
<p>但考慮到 2024 財年的銷售額為 3910 億美元，很難相信未來會有超常增長，尤其是 iPhone 正變得越來越成熟，消費者可能不會那麼頻繁地感到需要升級到新型號。</p>
<p>華爾街共識分析師預計，未來三年每股收益將以 11.4% 的年化速度增長。假設這一增長在預測期之後繼續，結合市盈率收縮至 30 的可能性（仍然高於市場），預計股價在現在到 2030 年初之間僅增長 34%。</p>
<p>因此，除非估值大幅下降，否則蘋果在未來五年內產生強勁回報的可能性不大。</p>

蘋果

<p>蘋果的股票在過去五年中上漲了近 200%，這得益於強勁的盈利和向服務業務的轉型，後者現在佔收入的 25%。儘管由於 iPhone 市場的成熟，增長潛力受到擔憂，但分析師預計未來三年的年每股收益增長率為 11.4%。然而，目前的市盈率為 38.4，若收縮至 30，可能會將到 2030 年的股票價格增長限制在 34%，這表明未來的回報將温和，除非估值顯著下降</p>

<p>In the past five years, the <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong>(^GSPC 1.00%) has generated a total return of 92% (as of Jan. 14). That's a fantastic gain that's above the historical average.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在過去五年中，<strong>標準普爾 500 指數</strong>(^GSPC 1.00%) 的總回報率達到了 92%（截至 1 月 14 日）。這是一個超過歷史平均水平的驚人收益。</p>
</div><p>A strong market backdrop has lifted <strong>Apple</strong>(AAPL 0.75%) even further. The tech giant's shares would have more than tripled your money since the middle of January 2020, including dividends.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>強勁的市場背景進一步提升了 <strong>蘋果</strong>(AAPL 0.75%) 的表現。自 2020 年 1 月中旬以來，這家科技巨頭的股票價格已經翻了三倍以上，包括股息。</p>
</div><p>The business continues to be a dominant force across the globe. But where will this consumer discretionary stock be five years from now?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>該業務在全球範圍內繼續佔據主導地位。但這隻消費品股票在五年後會處於何種位置呢？</p>
</div><h2>Hardware is important</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>硬件的重要性</h2>
</div><p>Apple is known for selling popular hardware devices. The iPhone, which today represents about half of overall sales, even though it's a product in its 16th iteration, still essentially drives financial performance. However, the company has also developed and found smashing success with the MacBook, iPad, AirPods, and Watch.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>蘋果以銷售受歡迎的硬件設備而聞名。儘管 iPhone 已經進入第 16 代，但今天仍佔整體銷售的約一半，依然是推動財務表現的核心產品。然而，公司也開發了 MacBook、iPad、AirPods 和 Watch，並取得了巨大的成功。</p>
</div><p>Five years ago in fiscal 2019, 82% of Apple's total revenue came strictly from products. That's not necessarily a bad thing, as consumers all over the world have grown an affinity to these devices. That's precisely what has made Apple the most valuable brand, according to consultancy Interbrand.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>五年前的 2019 財年，蘋果 82% 的總收入來自於產品。這並不一定是壞事，因為全球消費者對這些設備的喜愛與日俱增。這正是根據諮詢公司 Interbrand 的説法，使蘋果成為最有價值的品牌。</p>
</div><p>And it has supported pricing power. It's crazy to think that people will pay a four-figure sum for a smartphone. Apple has single-handedly redefined the category, and it continues to reap the rewards in the form of massive profits.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這也支持了定價能力。想想看，人們願意為一部智能手機支付四位數的金額，這真是不可思議。蘋果單槍匹馬地重新定義了這一類別，並繼續以鉅額利潤收穫回報。</p>
</div><h2>A shifting business model</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>商業模式的轉變</h2>
</div><p>But Apple's business model is transitioning. In fiscal 2024, 75% of total revenue came from products, with the rest coming from services. The latter segment's dollar amount, however, of $96 billion is 108% higher than five years before, a much faster growth rate than products registered. This segment contains a wide range of money-making activities, including iCloud, advertising, AppleCare, App Store, Apple TV+, Apple Fitness+, Apple Music, Apple Arcade, Apple Pay, and Apple Card.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但蘋果的商業模式正在轉型。在 2024 財年，75% 的總收入來自於產品，其餘來自於服務。然而，後者的金額為 960 億美元，比五年前增長了 108%，增速遠快於產品。這一部分包含了多種盈利活動，包括 iCloud、廣告、AppleCare、App Store、Apple TV+、Apple Fitness+、Apple Music、Apple Arcade、Apple Pay 和 Apple Card。</p>
</div><p>It's encouraging to see the company evolve like this. After all, Apple's services, in combination with products, are what make up the powerful ecosystem. It builds customer loyalty and creates a bigger recurring revenue stream over time.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>看到公司如此發展令人鼓舞。畢竟，蘋果的服務與產品結合在一起，構成了強大的生態系統。這增強了客户忠誠度，並隨着時間的推移創造了更大的經常性收入流。</p>
</div><p>Investors were worried that Apple would fall behind the artificial intelligence (AI) race. But the business finally launched Apple Intelligence, a suite of AI-related features, late last year. At the end of the day, though, it still matters greatly that this initiative can drive more product sales. This ultimately leads to those devices subscribing to an Apple service.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投資者曾擔心蘋果會在人工智能（AI）競賽中落後。但該公司終於在去年底推出了 Apple Intelligence，一套與 AI 相關的功能。歸根結底，這一舉措能否推動更多產品銷售仍然至關重要。這最終導致這些設備訂閲蘋果的服務。</p>
</div><p>I believe it's reasonable to assume that services and software will become even more important to Apple's financial success over time, meaning the trend will continue. This is a good thing, as the division carries a gross margin in excess of 70%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我認為可以合理地假設，隨着時間的推移，服務和軟件將對蘋果的財務成功變得更加重要，這一趨勢將持續下去。這是件好事，因為該部門的毛利率超過 70%。</p>
</div><h2>Apple's return potential</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>蘋果的回報潛力</h2>
</div><p>Apple shares have jumped nearly 200% in the past five years. This was supported by significantly higher earnings per share (EPS) between fiscal 2019 and fiscal 2024.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在過去五年中，蘋果的股票價格上漲了近 200%。這一增長得益於 2019 財年到 2024 財年間每股收益（EPS）的顯著提高。</p>
</div><p>However, investors must be aware that the valuation has also gotten richer. Apple's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio at this writing is 38.4. Five years ago, in mid-January 2020, the P/E multiple was at 25. The 54% expansion indicates improving market sentiment toward the business. The current P/E ratio has actually rarely been more expensive in the past decade.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，投資者必須意識到估值也變得更加昂貴。當前蘋果的市盈率（P/E）為 38.4。五年前，即 2020 年 1 月中旬，市盈率為 25。這 54% 的擴張表明市場對該業務的情緒正在改善。在過去十年中，當前的市盈率實際上很少如此昂貴。</p>
</div><p>Apple has a powerful brand thanks to its incredibly popular products and services. And its ability to produce free cash flow is admirable.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>得益於其極受歡迎的產品和服務，蘋果擁有強大的品牌。而其產生自由現金流的能力令人欽佩。</p>
</div><p>But with fiscal 2024 sales of $391 billion, it's difficult to believe outsized growth is on the horizon, especially since the iPhone is becoming more mature and consumers might not feel the need to upgrade to newer models as often.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但考慮到 2024 財年的銷售額為 3910 億美元，很難相信未來會有超常增長，尤其是 iPhone 正變得越來越成熟，消費者可能不會那麼頻繁地感到需要升級到新型號。</p>
</div><p>Wall Street consensus analyst estimates see EPS rising at an annualized clip of 11.4% over the next three years. Assuming that gain continues in the years after that forecast period, coupled with the possibility of the P/E ratio contracting to 30 (still a premium to the market), the stock price is expected to increase just 34% between now and the start of 2030.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>華爾街共識分析師預計，未來三年每股收益將以 11.4% 的年化速度增長。假設這一增長在預測期之後繼續，結合市盈率收縮至 30 的可能性（仍然高於市場），預計股價在現在到 2030 年初之間僅增長 34%。</p>
</div><p>Therefore, unless the valuation drops substantially, it's unlikely Apple will generate strong returns over the next five years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，除非估值大幅下降，否則蘋果在未來五年內產生強勁回報的可能性不大。</p>
</div>

Where Will Apple Stock Be in 5 Years?

- 標普 500 指數在過去五年中總回報率為 92%。  
- 蘋果公司在 2024 財年中，75% 收入來自產品，25% 來自服務。  
- 預計未來五年，蘋果股票回報將有限，股價可能僅上漲 34%。

五年後蘋果的股票會如何表現？