<p>在過去幾年中，沒有比通貨膨脹更重要的宏觀經濟話題了。由於供應鏈瓶頸、貨幣刺激和被壓抑的消費者需求等多種因素的綜合影響，2022 年經濟各領域的價格達到了十年來的最高水平。</p>
<p>然而，得益於更高的利率，美聯儲已將通貨膨脹控制住。但這並不意味着我們已經完全擺脱了困境。廣受關注的消費者價格指數（CPI）在 2024 年最後三個月出現了加速的同比增長。投資者應該對此保持關注。</p>
<p>需要明確的是，你無法控制通貨膨脹。但你可以採取一些措施，以更好地為你的投資組合在長期內取得成功做好準備。</p>
<h2>經濟環境的變化</h2>
<p>截至 12 月，有效聯邦基金利率為 4.48%。這遠高於 COVID-19 疫情爆發後近兩年期間的不到 0.1%。為了應對通貨膨脹，中央銀行迅速提高聯邦基金利率，以施壓借貸和消費活動。但 12 月的 CPI 數據為 2.9%，仍比美聯儲的 2% 目標高出 45%。</p>
<p>很難相信通貨膨脹會在短期內下降。唐納德·特朗普總統顯著的經濟政策觀點傾向於支持經濟中的高價格。減税可以增加對商品的需求，因為它提高了公民的消費能力。而實施關税也可能提高進口商品的價格，因為這些更高的成本可能會轉嫁給消費者。</p>
<p>在最近的世界經濟論壇上，特朗普表示：“我會要求利率立即下降。” 如果付諸實施，降低利率可能會推動通貨膨脹。</p>
<p>當然，美聯儲旨在獨立於白宮。但在未來幾年，通貨膨脹仍有可能高於過去十年中的大多數時間。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDU0MTcvaW5mbGF0aW9uLXR5cGVkLW9uLWNhbGN1bGF0b3IuanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDU0MTcvaW5mbGF0aW9uLXR5cGVkLW9uLWNhbGN1bGF0b3IuanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>定價能力</h2>
<p>對於那些關心為投資組合挑選個股的長期投資者來説，試圖預測宏觀經濟趨勢並不是最有效的時間利用。但我認為每位投資者至少應該瞭解更廣泛經濟中發生的事情。</p>
<p>歸根結底，關鍵在於找到那些在價格上漲時能夠表現出色的公司。傳奇投資者沃倫·巴菲特曾説：“評估一家企業時，最重要的決定就是定價能力。” 這些公司不僅找到了為消費者提供超額價值的方法，還能夠為自己捕獲更大份額的價值。可能沒有比這更好的投資機會了。</p>
<p>這樣的企業應該始終在投資者的雷達上，因為奧馬哈的先知認為它們的質量極高。但在通貨膨脹環境中，這種情況更加明顯，因為它們能夠持續將更高的成本轉嫁給客户。</p>
<h2>將這些列入關注名單</h2>
<p>很容易找到那些證明了定價能力的企業實例。它們可以來自許多行業。</p>
<p>例如，在零售方面，<strong>Costco</strong> 憑藉其極受歡迎的會員制度，每隔幾年就能夠提高年費。在餐飲領域，還有 <strong>Chipotle</strong>。管理層成功地提高了菜單價格，以抵消上升的輸入成本。</p>
<p>在媒體領域，<strong>Netflix</strong> 和 <strong>Walt Disney</strong> 繼續對其流媒體服務收取更高的月費，這一趨勢並沒有阻止訂閲人數的增長。迪士尼在其主題公園和遊輪業務中也展現了定價能力。</p>
<p><strong>Ferrari</strong> 並不是一家典型的汽車製造商。其領導團隊將品牌的力量置於首位，限制每年生產和銷售的車輛數量。結果是能夠持續提高汽車價格，而其富裕客户羣對此樂於接受。</p>
<p>在我看來，除了迪士尼外，所有這些股票目前的估值都很高。儘管如此，這些企業應該在你的關注名單上，打算進一步研究並等待回調後再進行購買。</p>
<p>根據最近的 CPI 數據，加上特朗普推動經濟和股市的努力，未來十年通貨膨脹可能會高於投資者的預期。最好考慮如何更好地調整你的投資組合。</p>

開市客

<p>這篇文章討論了持續存在的通貨膨脹問題，受到供應鏈問題、貨幣刺激和消費者需求的影響。儘管美聯儲已提高利率以控制通貨膨脹，但消費者物價指數（CPI）仍高於目標水平。建議投資者關注具有強大定價能力的公司，如開市客、Chipotle、Netflix、迪士尼和法拉利，這些公司能夠將成本轉嫁給消費者。作者建議關注這些股票，以尋找潛在的投資機會，因為通貨膨脹在未來幾年可能仍將保持高位</p>

<p>There hasn't been a more important macroeconomic topic in the past few years than that of inflation. Due to a combination of factors, like supply chain bottlenecks, monetary stimulus, and pent-up consumer demand, prices across the economy rose to decade-high levels in 2022.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在過去幾年中，沒有比通貨膨脹更重要的宏觀經濟話題了。由於供應鏈瓶頸、貨幣刺激和被壓抑的消費者需求等多種因素的綜合影響，2022 年經濟各領域的價格達到了十年來的最高水平。</p>
</div><p>However, thanks to higher interest rates, the Federal Reserve has brought inflation under control. That isn't to say we're in the clear yet. The widely followed Consumer Price Index (CPI) saw accelerating year-over-year increases in the last three months of 2024. Investors should be paying attention.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，得益於更高的利率，美聯儲已將通貨膨脹控制住。但這並不意味着我們已經完全擺脱了困境。廣受關注的消費者價格指數（CPI）在 2024 年最後三個月出現了加速的同比增長。投資者應該對此保持關注。</p>
</div><p>To be clear, you can't control inflation. But you can do something about it to better position your portfolios for long-term success.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>需要明確的是，你無法控制通貨膨脹。但你可以採取一些措施，以更好地為你的投資組合在長期內取得成功做好準備。</p>
</div><h2>Changing economic landscape</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>經濟環境的變化</h2>
</div><p>The effective federal funds rate was at 4.48% in December. That's significantly higher than the less than 0.1% it was during the nearly two-year stretch following the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. To combat inflation, the central bank quickly increased the federal funds rate to pressure borrowing and spending activity. But December's CPI print of 2.9% is still 45% higher than the Fed's 2% target.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至 12 月，有效聯邦基金利率為 4.48%。這遠高於 COVID-19 疫情爆發後近兩年期間的不到 0.1%。為了應對通貨膨脹，中央銀行迅速提高聯邦基金利率，以施壓借貸和消費活動。但 12 月的 CPI 數據為 2.9%，仍比美聯儲的 2% 目標高出 45%。</p>
</div><p>It's difficult to believe that inflation will come down anytime soon. President Donald Trump's notable economic policy views favor higher prices across the economy. Tax cuts can increase demand for goods, as they raise the spending power of citizens. And implementing tariffs can also increase the price of goods that are imported because these higher costs could be passed onto consumers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>很難相信通貨膨脹會在短期內下降。唐納德·特朗普總統顯著的經濟政策觀點傾向於支持經濟中的高價格。減税可以增加對商品的需求，因為它提高了公民的消費能力。而實施關税也可能提高進口商品的價格，因為這些更高的成本可能會轉嫁給消費者。</p>
</div><p>And when speaking at the recent World Economic Forum, Trump said, &#34;I'll demand that interest rates drop immediately.&#34; If put in motion, lower rates can boost inflation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在最近的世界經濟論壇上，特朗普表示：“我會要求利率立即下降。” 如果付諸實施，降低利率可能會推動通貨膨脹。</p>
</div><p>Of course, the Federal Reserve aims to be independent of the White House. But there's still a chance inflation is higher over the next few years than it's been for most of the past decade.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>當然，美聯儲旨在獨立於白宮。但在未來幾年，通貨膨脹仍有可能高於過去十年中的大多數時間。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDU0MTcvaW5mbGF0aW9uLXR5cGVkLW9uLWNhbGN1bGF0b3IuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F805417%2Finflation-typed-on-calculator.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Pricing power</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>定價能力</h2>
</div><p>For long-term investors who care about picking individual stocks for their portfolios, trying to predict macroeconomic trends is not the best use of time. But I believe every investor should at least be aware of what's happening within the broader economy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>對於那些關心為投資組合挑選個股的長期投資者來説，試圖預測宏觀經濟趨勢並不是最有效的時間利用。但我認為每位投資者至少應該瞭解更廣泛經濟中發生的事情。</p>
</div><p>At the end of the day, it's all about finding the right companies that can excel when prices are going up. &#34;The single most important decision in evaluating a business is pricing power,&#34; the legendary Warren Buffett once said. These companies have not only figured out how to deliver excess value to consumers, but to capture a larger chunk of that value for themselves. There might be no better setup out there.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>歸根結底，關鍵在於找到那些在價格上漲時能夠表現出色的公司。傳奇投資者沃倫·巴菲特曾説：“評估一家企業時，最重要的決定就是定價能力。” 這些公司不僅找到了為消費者提供超額價值的方法，還能夠為自己捕獲更大份額的價值。可能沒有比這更好的投資機會了。</p>
</div><p>Businesses like this should always be on investors' radars, as the Oracle of Omaha thinks they are extremely high quality. But in an inflationary environment, this is more so the case because they are able to consistently pass higher costs to customers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這樣的企業應該始終在投資者的雷達上，因為奧馬哈的先知認為它們的質量極高。但在通貨膨脹環境中，這種情況更加明顯，因為它們能夠持續將更高的成本轉嫁給客户。</p>
</div><h2>Keep these on the watch list</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>將這些列入關注名單</h2>
</div><p>It's easy to find instances of businesses that have proven pricing power. They can be from many industries.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>很容易找到那些證明了定價能力的企業實例。它們可以來自許多行業。</p>
</div><p>For example, on the retail side, <strong>Costco</strong>, with its incredibly popular memberships, is able to raise the annual fees every few years. There's also <strong>Chipotle</strong> in the restaurant space. Management has successfully raised menu prices to offset rising input costs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>例如，在零售方面，<strong>Costco</strong> 憑藉其極受歡迎的會員制度，每隔幾年就能夠提高年費。在餐飲領域，還有 <strong>Chipotle</strong>。管理層成功地提高了菜單價格，以抵消上升的輸入成本。</p>
</div><p>Within the media space, both <strong>Netflix</strong> and <strong>Walt Disney</strong> continue to charge higher monthly prices for their streaming services, a trend that hasn't stopped subscriber counts from going up. Disney also exhibits pricing power within its theme parks and cruise lines.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在媒體領域，<strong>Netflix</strong> 和 <strong>Walt Disney</strong> 繼續對其流媒體服務收取更高的月費，這一趨勢並沒有阻止訂閲人數的增長。迪士尼在其主題公園和遊輪業務中也展現了定價能力。</p>
</div><p><strong>Ferrari</strong> isn't a typical carmaker. Its leadership team prioritizes the brand's strength more than anything else, limiting the number of vehicles it makes and sells in any given year. The result is a rare ability to keep increasing car prices that its wealthy clientele is enthusiastic to pay.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>Ferrari</strong> 並不是一家典型的汽車製造商。其領導團隊將品牌的力量置於首位，限制每年生產和銷售的車輛數量。結果是能夠持續提高汽車價格，而其富裕客户羣對此樂於接受。</p>
</div><p>In my opinion, all these stocks trade at steep valuations right now, except for Disney. Nonetheless, these businesses should be on your watch list, with the intention to study them more and wait for a pullback before buying.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在我看來，除了迪士尼外，所有這些股票目前的估值都很高。儘管如此，這些企業應該在你的關注名單上，打算進一步研究並等待回調後再進行購買。</p>
</div><p>Based on recent CPI data, coupled with Trump's efforts to boost the economy and stock market, there's a very real possibility that inflation throughout the rest of this decade will be higher than investors might believe. It's best to think about ways to better position your portfolio.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根據最近的 CPI 數據，加上特朗普推動經濟和股市的努力，未來十年通貨膨脹可能會高於投資者的預期。最好考慮如何更好地調整你的投資組合。</p>
</div>

You Can't Control Inflation, but You Can Control What You Do About It

- 通貨膨脹是近年來重要的宏觀經濟話題，2022 年價格上漲至十年高點。  
- 美聯儲通過提高利率控制通脹，但 2024 年末 CPI 仍高於目標。  
- 投資者應關注具備定價權的公司，以應對未來可能的高通脹環境。

你無法控制通貨膨脹，但你可以控制你如何應對它