<p>比起其他任何美國公司，<strong>特斯拉</strong>（TSLA 1.08%）更值得稱讚，因為它使電動車（EV）行業變得可行。在經歷了數十年甚至幾代人關於電動車的討論後，特斯拉將這一概念推向了主流，擴大了生產規模，並在逆境中實現了可觀的利潤，超出了預期。</p>
<p>在許多人認為電動車最終會取代傳統燃油車的行業中取得的成功，加上其對自動駕駛的巨大承諾，使得特斯拉獲得了極高的估值，市值現在超過 1 萬億美元，而與之相比，<strong>通用汽車</strong> 和 <strong>福特</strong> 的市盈率則僅為個位數倍數。</p>
<p>根據下面的股票圖表，特斯拉的前景依然良好。正如你所看到的，自 2023 年底以來，股價上漲了 56%，克服了去年早些時候的挫折。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/997f8c8c9ff67180837bdf1f3820def0.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/997f8c8c9ff67180837bdf1f3820def0.png"/></p>
<p>TSLA 數據來源於 YCharts。</p>
<p>然而，現在特斯拉 2024 年的全年業績已經公佈，數據顯示業務遠比股價飆升所暗示的要弱，而根據一個數字，特斯拉可能面臨嚴重的麻煩。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDU4MTkvdGVzbGEtY3liZXJ0cnVjay1yb2FkLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDU4MTkvdGVzbGEtY3liZXJ0cnVjay1yb2FkLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：特斯拉。</p>
<h2>特斯拉的汽車銷售下滑</h2>
<p>投資者已經知道特斯拉 2024 年的汽車銷量下降了 1.1%，降至 179 萬輛，但這家電動車巨頭剛剛確認，去年汽車收入也下降了 6%，降至 771 億美元。今年總收入仍然增長了 1%，達到 977 億美元，這得益於其能源存儲和發電業務以及主要基於軟件的服務的增長。但汽車是業務的核心組成部分，而其服務收入為 105 億美元，也依賴於汽車。</p>
<p>特斯拉汽車收入的下降意味着其汽車的銷量和平均售價都在下降。這發生在它推出新款 Cybertruck 的同時，顯然是擴大了生產能力。</p>
<p>特斯拉去年降低了汽車價格。雖然不完全清楚原因，但通常企業降低價格是為了在市場中保持競爭力並清理庫存，這些規則同樣適用於特斯拉。根據傳統經濟學法則，當價格下降時，需求應該上升，但特斯拉的情況並非如此。相反，需求繼續下降。</p>
<p>首席執行官埃隆·馬斯克一再抱怨高利率對需求的影響，但高利率對所有汽車製造商的影響是相同的。特斯拉在其第四季度財報中承認，“可負擔性仍然是客户關注的重點。”</p>
<p>正如下面的圖表所示，特斯拉在北美和歐洲的市場份額在過去一年中下降，而在全球最大的電動車市場中國略有上升。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDU4MTkvdGVzbGEtbWFya2V0LXNoYXJlLWNoYXJ0LnBuZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDU4MTkvdGVzbGEtbWFya2V0LXNoYXJlLWNoYXJ0LnBuZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：特斯拉。</p>
<p>正如你所看到的，特斯拉的市場份額在過去兩年中趨於平穩，甚至開始下降。公司的挑戰不僅僅是電動車市場的整體放緩；它在汽車行業的整體市場份額也在下降。</p>
<p>對於這種平穩狀態並沒有明確的原因，儘管似乎有幾個因素導致了這種情況。這些因素包括來自其他電動車製造商的競爭加劇，早期電動車用户的基礎似乎已經耗盡，對續航和充電的擔憂，以及品牌疲勞，尤其是特斯拉在更新車隊方面的速度緩慢，與每年發佈新車型的傳統汽車製造商形成鮮明對比。</p>
<h2>特斯拉能否恢復增長？</h2>
<p>馬斯克繼續對自動駕駛做出重大承諾，如果特斯拉能夠按照他設想的方式實現完全自動駕駛和機器人出租車，那麼當前的增長停滯將無關緊要。然而，市場似乎忽視了公司面臨的明顯挑戰。</p>
<p>特斯拉表示其產能為 300 萬輛，並預計將在 2025 年恢復汽車增長，儘管沒有給出具體數字。分析師預計今年收入增長 19%，其中大部分應來自汽車增長。</p>
<p>目前，投資者似乎信任馬斯克，儘管未能達到預期，股價在盤後交易中上漲，但如果需求繼續受到挑戰，特斯拉可能還有很長的下跌路要走。考慮到其高昂的估值，特斯拉的股票在這一點上似乎損失的更多。</p>

2 倍做多特斯拉 ETF - Direxion

特斯拉

<p>特斯拉的汽車銷售在 2024 年下降了 1.1%，汽車收入下降 6%，至 771 億美元，儘管由於能源和服務的增長，總收入上升了 1%，達到 977 億美元。汽車收入的下降表明銷售量和平均售價的減少，即使在推出 Cybertruck 之後。特斯拉在北美和歐洲的市場份額正在下降，原因是競爭加劇、市場飽和和品牌疲勞。儘管首席執行官埃隆·馬斯克承諾未來將通過自動駕駛實現增長，但分析師對公司的挑戰和高估值仍持謹慎態度</p>

<p>More so than any other American company, <strong>Tesla</strong>(TSLA 1.08%) deserves credit for making the electric vehicle (EV) industry viable. After decades or even generations of talk about an electric car, Tesla has taken the concept mainstream, scaling production and turning a tidy profit against long odds, defying expectations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>比起其他任何美國公司，<strong>特斯拉</strong>（TSLA 1.08%）更值得稱讚，因為它使電動車（EV）行業變得可行。在經歷了數十年甚至幾代人關於電動車的討論後，特斯拉將這一概念推向了主流，擴大了生產規模，並在逆境中實現了可觀的利潤，超出了預期。</p>
</div><p>That success in an industry that many think will eventually supplant traditional combustion vehicles, along with its big promises about autonomy, has allowed Tesla to earn a sky-high valuation and a market cap now well over $1 trillion, which compares to peers like <strong>General Motors</strong> and <strong>Ford</strong> that trade at single-digit multiples of their earnings.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在許多人認為電動車最終會取代傳統燃油車的行業中取得的成功，加上其對自動駕駛的巨大承諾，使得特斯拉獲得了極高的估值，市值現在超過 1 萬億美元，而與之相比，<strong>通用汽車</strong> 和 <strong>福特</strong> 的市盈率則僅為個位數倍數。</p>
</div><p>According to the stock chart below, things continue to look good for Tesla. As you can see, the stock has jumped 56% since the end of 2023, overcoming an earlier setback last year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根據下面的股票圖表，特斯拉的前景依然良好。正如你所看到的，自 2023 年底以來，股價上漲了 56%，克服了去年早些時候的挫折。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/997f8c8c9ff67180837bdf1f3820def0.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/997f8c8c9ff67180837bdf1f3820def0.png"/></p>
<p>TSLA data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>TSLA 數據來源於 YCharts。</p>
</div><p>However, now that Tesla's full-year results are in for 2024, a look at the numbers indicates that the business is much weaker than the stock surge indicates, and according to one number, Tesla could be in serious trouble.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，現在特斯拉 2024 年的全年業績已經公佈，數據顯示業務遠比股價飆升所暗示的要弱，而根據一個數字，特斯拉可能面臨嚴重的麻煩。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDU4MTkvdGVzbGEtY3liZXJ0cnVjay1yb2FkLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F805819%2Ftesla-cybertruck-road.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Tesla.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：特斯拉。</p>
</div><h2>Tesla's declining auto sales</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>特斯拉的汽車銷售下滑</h2>
</div><p>Investors already knew that Tesla's vehicle sales fell in 2024, declining by 1.1% to 1.79 million, but the EV titan just confirmed that automotive revenue was also down last year, down 6% to $77.1 billion. Total revenue still rose 1% this year to $97.7 billion thanks to growth in its energy storage and generation business, and services, which are primarily software-based. But vehicles are the core component of the business, and its services, which made up $10.5 billion in revenue, depend on them as well.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投資者已經知道特斯拉 2024 年的汽車銷量下降了 1.1%，降至 179 萬輛，但這家電動車巨頭剛剛確認，去年汽車收入也下降了 6%，降至 771 億美元。今年總收入仍然增長了 1%，達到 977 億美元，這得益於其能源存儲和發電業務以及主要基於軟件的服務的增長。但汽車是業務的核心組成部分，而其服務收入為 105 億美元，也依賴於汽車。</p>
</div><p>Tesla's decline in automotive revenue means that both volume sales of its vehicles and average selling price declined. This occurred even as it rolled out the new Cybertruck, presumably expanding its production capabilities as well.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特斯拉汽車收入的下降意味着其汽車的銷量和平均售價都在下降。這發生在它推出新款 Cybertruck 的同時，顯然是擴大了生產能力。</p>
</div><p>Tesla lowered prices on its vehicles last year. It's not fully clear why, but typically businesses lower prices to stay competitive with the market and move inventory, and those rules apply to Tesla as well. According to conventional laws of economics, when prices fall, demand is supposed to go up, but that's not what happened with Tesla. Instead, demand continued to fall.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特斯拉去年降低了汽車價格。雖然不完全清楚原因，但通常企業降低價格是為了在市場中保持競爭力並清理庫存，這些規則同樣適用於特斯拉。根據傳統經濟學法則，當價格下降時，需求應該上升，但特斯拉的情況並非如此。相反，需求繼續下降。</p>
</div><p>CEO Elon Musk has complained time and again about the impact of high interest rates on demand, but high interest rates have affected all automakers equally. Tesla acknowledged in its fourth-quarter earnings report that &#34;Affordability remains top of mind for customers.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>首席執行官埃隆·馬斯克一再抱怨高利率對需求的影響，但高利率對所有汽車製造商的影響是相同的。特斯拉在其第四季度財報中承認，“可負擔性仍然是客户關注的重點。”</p>
</div><p>As the chart below shows, Tesla's market share among all vehicles, not just EVs, has fallen over the last year in North America and Europe, while it's risen slightly in China, the world's largest EV market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>正如下面的圖表所示，特斯拉在北美和歐洲的市場份額在過去一年中下降，而在全球最大的電動車市場中國略有上升。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDU4MTkvdGVzbGEtbWFya2V0LXNoYXJlLWNoYXJ0LnBuZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F805819%2Ftesla-market-share-chart.png&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Tesla.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：特斯拉。</p>
</div><p>As you can see, Tesla's market share has plateaued over the last two years and even begun to decline. The company's challenges extend beyond the general slowdown in the electric vehicle market; it's also losing overall market share in the automotive industry.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>正如你所看到的，特斯拉的市場份額在過去兩年中趨於平穩，甚至開始下降。公司的挑戰不僅僅是電動車市場的整體放緩；它在汽車行業的整體市場份額也在下降。</p>
</div><p>There isn't a clear reason for that plateau, though there are several factors that seem to have caused it. Those include increasing competition from other EV makers, a base of early adopters for EVs that seems exhausted, concerns about range and charging, and perhaps some brand fatigue, especially as Tesla has been slow to update its fleet, unlike traditional automakers that release new models every year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>對於這種平穩狀態並沒有明確的原因，儘管似乎有幾個因素導致了這種情況。這些因素包括來自其他電動車製造商的競爭加劇，早期電動車用户的基礎似乎已經耗盡，對續航和充電的擔憂，以及品牌疲勞，尤其是特斯拉在更新車隊方面的速度緩慢，與每年發佈新車型的傳統汽車製造商形成鮮明對比。</p>
</div><h2>Can Tesla return to growth?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>特斯拉能否恢復增長？</h2>
</div><p>Musk continues to make big promises around autonomy, and if Tesla pulls off full self-driving and robotaxis the way he envisions it, the current pause in growth won't matter. The market, however, seems to be overlooking the evident challenges the company is facing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>馬斯克繼續對自動駕駛做出重大承諾，如果特斯拉能夠按照他設想的方式實現完全自動駕駛和機器人出租車，那麼當前的增長停滯將無關緊要。然而，市場似乎忽視了公司面臨的明顯挑戰。</p>
</div><p>Tesla said it has a capacity of three million vehicles, and it expects to return to vehicle growth in 2025, though it didn't give specific numbers. Analysts expect 19% revenue growth this year, most of which should come from vehicle growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特斯拉表示其產能為 300 萬輛，並預計將在 2025 年恢復汽車增長，儘管沒有給出具體數字。分析師預計今年收入增長 19%，其中大部分應來自汽車增長。</p>
</div><p>For now, investors seem to trust Musk as the stock rose after hours in spite of missing estimates, but Tesla could have a long way to fall if demand continues to be challenged. Given its lofty valuation, Tesla stock seems to have more to lose than to gain at this point.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前，投資者似乎信任馬斯克，儘管未能達到預期，股價在盤後交易中上漲，但如果需求繼續受到挑戰，特斯拉可能還有很長的下跌路要走。考慮到其高昂的估值，特斯拉的股票在這一點上似乎損失的更多。</p>
</div>

Where Did Tesla's Demand Go?

- 特斯拉 2024 年汽車銷售下降 1.1%，汽車收入下滑 6% 至 771 億美元。  
- 儘管整體收入因能源存儲和服務增長上升 1%，但核心汽車業務疲軟。  
- 特斯拉市場份額在北美和歐洲下降，面臨激烈競爭和需求疲軟挑戰。

特斯拉的需求消失到哪裏去了？