<p>你的投資組合是否充滿了大家似乎都擁有的相同股票？也許你在尋找一隻被低估的贏家股票。</p>
<p>這樣的股票在這個創紀錄的市場中並不多見，但它們確實存在。以中國的電子商務巨頭 <strong>阿里巴巴</strong>(BABA -3.80%) 為例。由於股價從歷史高點下跌了 70%，該公司已經失去了市場的青睞，但實際上它對投資者來説是一個引人注目的選擇。</p>
<h2>你應該購買阿里巴巴股票的原因</h2>
<p>阿里巴巴的天貓和淘寶平台共同控制了中國電子商務市場約一半的份額（以及在一些鄰國的顯著份額）。另一半主要由 Temu 母公司 <strong>PDD Holdings</strong> 和 <strong>京東</strong> 分割。</p>
<p>然而，來自其在線市場的約 600 億美元年收入僅佔公司整體收入的一半。其餘部分包括一個名為菜鳥的物流業務、一個雲計算部門以及國際電子商務等。</p>
<p>與許多公司一樣，阿里巴巴在疫情初期經歷了業務激增，但隨着危機的減退，增長出現了滯後。然而，隨着第三季度收入同比增長 5% 和淨收入幾乎增長 60%，它再次回升。這一進展延續了公司自去年初以來的收入增長勢頭。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/1ca54a7c3fcbc0350023d681aa36e33c.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/1ca54a7c3fcbc0350023d681aa36e33c.png"/></p>
<p>數據來源於 YCharts。</p>
<p>雖然阿里巴巴似乎終於走出了疫情帶來的低迷，但現在考慮投資阿里巴巴的理由更加具體。其中四個理由尤為突出。</p>
<p><strong>1. 中國的消費支出正在增長</strong></p>
<p>儘管阿里巴巴在管理和推廣其電子商務業務方面表現良好，但其成功仍然最終與中國經濟的狀況，尤其是中國的消費支出息息相關。這就是為什麼 2023 年如此艱難——疫情的影響持續時間遠超預期。</p>
<p>現在情況要樂觀得多。該國的零售銷售已經連續兩年每個月（同比）增長，得益於去年報告的 5.0% 的 GDP 增長。儘管市場研究機構 eMarketer 預測中國的零售支出今年僅增長 3.5%，但根據多份報告，電子商務支出可能會增長兩位數。</p>
<p><strong>2. 公司的狀況不再成問題</strong></p>
<p>過去幾年關注阿里巴巴的投資者會記得管理層一直在努力制定公司的統一願景。例如，在 2023 年底，它取消了備受讚譽的剝離雲計算部門的計劃。而在去年年初，它又推翻了剝離菜鳥物流業務的計劃。即使這些最終是正確的決定，投資者也不喜歡這些核心業務未來的不確定性。</p>
<p>現在，距離這些反轉大約一年，並且在經歷了一次管理層重組後，所有業務都有了具體計劃，因此對公司的前景持樂觀態度變得更加容易。</p>
<p><strong>3. 其資產負債表健康</strong></p>
<p>這並不常被提及，但債務可以悄悄侵蝕公司的市場地位。它限制了在艱難時期或出現增長機會時可能需要的可用資本。</p>
<p>但阿里巴巴並非如此。儘管它確實有一些債務，這家市值 2350 億美元的公司僅有約 288 億美元的借款，而其現金和流動資產幾乎是這個數額的兩倍。此外，過去一年它產生了 145 億美元的自由現金流。</p>
<p>正因如此，惠譽評級將阿里巴巴所持的少量債務評級為堅如磐石的 A+。該公司能夠應對任何可預見的現金挑戰或在不威脅其財務穩定的情況下進行增長投資。</p>
<p><strong>4. 阿里巴巴也是人工智能的新興者</strong></p>
<p>最後，阿里巴巴也進入了人工智能領域——這也是它選擇保留雲計算業務而不是在 2023 年剝離的原因之一。</p>
<p>就在中國初創公司 DeepSeek 以其低成本、高效率的 AI 模型攪動市場幾天後，阿里巴巴推出了自己的模型 Qwen 2.5-Max，聲稱其性能甚至優於 DeepSeek 的模型。</p>
<p>雖然阿里巴巴在人工智能競賽中的競爭力還有待觀察，但長期機會是顯著的。Precedence Research 預測該行業將在 2034 年前以 19% 的年均增速增長。相信阿里巴巴的人工智能努力可能成為公司下一個主要增長引擎並不為過。</p>
<h2>只需保持視角清晰，並保持警惕</h2>
<p>儘管阿里巴巴似乎正在回升，但仍面臨着激烈的電子商務競爭和中國宏觀經濟的挑戰。</p>
<p>目前，阿里巴巴的股價僅為預計 2025 年收益的 11 倍（並且仍比歷史高點下跌 70%），我認為投資者並沒有充分考慮阿里巴巴的潛在上行空間。這在今天的市場中是一個罕見的便宜貨。</p>
<p>只需記住，這在短期內可能仍然是一個波動的股票。</p>

阿里巴巴-W

阿里巴巴

阿里巴巴-WR

<p>阿里巴巴的股票因多個因素被推薦購買：1）中國消費者支出增長，電子商務預計將實現兩位數增長；2）公司穩定性和管理透明度改善；3）強勁的資產負債表，債務可控且現金流充裕；4）在人工智能領域的潛力，阿里巴巴推出了其 AI 模型。儘管面臨競爭和宏觀經濟問題等挑戰，該股票目前以預期 2025 年收益的 11 倍估值被低估，成為一個有吸引力的投資機會</p>

<p>Is your portfolio chock-full of the same names everyone else seems to own? Perhaps you're looking for a winning stock that has flown under the radar.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>你的投資組合是否充滿了大家似乎都擁有的相同股票？也許你在尋找一隻被低估的贏家股票。</p>
</div><p>Such stocks are few and far between in this record-setting market, but they're out there. Take China's e-commerce giant <strong>Alibaba</strong>(BABA -3.80%) as an example. The company has fallen out of favor following the stock's 70% decline from its all-time high, but it's actually a compelling pick for investors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這樣的股票在這個創紀錄的市場中並不多見，但它們確實存在。以中國的電子商務巨頭 <strong>阿里巴巴</strong>(BABA -3.80%) 為例。由於股價從歷史高點下跌了 70%，該公司已經失去了市場的青睞，但實際上它對投資者來説是一個引人注目的選擇。</p>
</div><h2>Here's why you should buy Alibaba stock</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>你應該購買阿里巴巴股票的原因</h2>
</div><p>Alibaba's Tmall and Taobao platforms collectively control about half of China's e-commerce market (plus a significant share in a handful of neighboring countries). The other half is mostly split between Temu parent <strong>PDD Holdings</strong> and <strong>JD.com</strong>.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>阿里巴巴的天貓和淘寶平台共同控制了中國電子商務市場約一半的份額（以及在一些鄰國的顯著份額）。另一半主要由 Temu 母公司 <strong>PDD Holdings</strong> 和 <strong>京東</strong> 分割。</p>
</div><p>The roughly $60 billion of annual revenue from its online marketplaces make up less than half of the company's overall top line, however. The remaining segments include of a logistics operation called Cainiao, a cloud computing arm, and international e-commerce, among others.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，來自其在線市場的約 600 億美元年收入僅佔公司整體收入的一半。其餘部分包括一個名為菜鳥的物流業務、一個雲計算部門以及國際電子商務等。</p>
</div><p>Like many companies, Alibaba saw its business surge early in the pandemic only to experience a growth hangover as the crisis waned. However, it's on the upswing again with third-quarter revenue up 5% year over year and net income rising nearly 60%. This progress extends top-line momentum the company has enjoyed since early last year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>與許多公司一樣，阿里巴巴在疫情初期經歷了業務激增，但隨着危機的減退，增長出現了滯後。然而，隨着第三季度收入同比增長 5% 和淨收入幾乎增長 60%，它再次回升。這一進展延續了公司自去年初以來的收入增長勢頭。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/1ca54a7c3fcbc0350023d681aa36e33c.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/1ca54a7c3fcbc0350023d681aa36e33c.png"/></p>
<p>Data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>數據來源於 YCharts。</p>
</div><p>While Alibaba seems to finally be out of its pandemic-induced funk, the reasons to consider stepping into an Alibaba stake right now are far more specific. Four of them stand out from the rest.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>雖然阿里巴巴似乎終於走出了疫情帶來的低迷，但現在考慮投資阿里巴巴的理由更加具體。其中四個理由尤為突出。</p>
</div><p><strong>1. Consumer spending in China is growing</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>1. 中國的消費支出正在增長</strong></p>
</div><p>As well as Alibaba may be managing and promoting its e-commerce business, its success is still ultimately tethered to the state of China's economy, and China's consumer spending in particular. That's why 2023 was such a tough year -- the pandemic's impact lingered far longer than anticipated.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管阿里巴巴在管理和推廣其電子商務業務方面表現良好，但其成功仍然最終與中國經濟的狀況，尤其是中國的消費支出息息相關。這就是為什麼 2023 年如此艱難——疫情的影響持續時間遠超預期。</p>
</div><p>Matters are considerably more encouraging now. The country's retail sales have grown every month (on a year-over-year basis) for two consecutive years, buoyed by last year's reported GDP growth of 5.0%. Though market research outfit eMarketer predicts China's retail spending will only grow 3.5% this year, e-commerce spending could increase double digits, according to multiple reports.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>現在情況要樂觀得多。該國的零售銷售已經連續兩年每個月（同比）增長，得益於去年報告的 5.0% 的 GDP 增長。儘管市場研究機構 eMarketer 預測中國的零售支出今年僅增長 3.5%，但根據多份報告，電子商務支出可能會增長兩位數。</p>
</div><p><strong>2. The state of the company is no longer in question</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>2. 公司的狀況不再成問題</strong></p>
</div><p>Investors keeping tabs on Alibaba for the past couple of years will remember management has struggled to develop a cohesive vision for the company. In late 2023, for example, it cancelled well-lauded plans to spin off its cloud computing arm. And early last year, it reversed its plans to shed its Cainiao logistics business. Even if these were ultimately the right decisions, investors didn't like the uncertainty around the future of these core operations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>過去幾年關注阿里巴巴的投資者會記得管理層一直在努力制定公司的統一願景。例如，在 2023 年底，它取消了備受讚譽的剝離雲計算部門的計劃。而在去年年初，它又推翻了剝離菜鳥物流業務的計劃。即使這些最終是正確的決定，投資者也不喜歡這些核心業務未來的不確定性。</p>
</div><p>Now, roughly one year removed from these reversals and with concrete plans for all of its businesses (following a management shakeup), it's easier to be bullish on the company's outlook.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>現在，距離這些反轉大約一年，並且在經歷了一次管理層重組後，所有業務都有了具體計劃，因此對公司的前景持樂觀態度變得更加容易。</p>
</div><p><strong>3. It boasts a healthy balance sheet</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>3. 其資產負債表健康</strong></p>
</div><p>It's not said often enough, but debt can quietly chip away at a company's market position. It limits deployable capital that might be needed to ride out tough times or when growth opportunities arise.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這並不常被提及，但債務可以悄悄侵蝕公司的市場地位。它限制了在艱難時期或出現增長機會時可能需要的可用資本。</p>
</div><p>That's not Alibaba though. While it does have some debt, the $235 billion company is only nursing around $28.8 billion in borrowings, and it has nearly twice that amount in cash and liquid assets. Furthermore, it's generated $14.5 billion worth of free cash flow in the past year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但阿里巴巴並非如此。儘管它確實有一些債務，這家市值 2350 億美元的公司僅有約 288 億美元的借款，而其現金和流動資產幾乎是這個數額的兩倍。此外，過去一年它產生了 145 億美元的自由現金流。</p>
</div><p>All of this is why Fitch Ratings rates what little debt Alibaba is carrying at a rock-solid A+. The company can handle any conceivable cash challenge or invest in growth without threatening its financial stability.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>正因如此，惠譽評級將阿里巴巴所持的少量債務評級為堅如磐石的 A+。該公司能夠應對任何可預見的現金挑戰或在不威脅其財務穩定的情況下進行增長投資。</p>
</div><p><strong>4. Alibaba is an AI up-and-comer as well</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>4. 阿里巴巴也是人工智能的新興者</strong></p>
</div><p>Finally, Alibaba has also entered the artificial intelligence fray -- one of the reasons it opted to hold onto its cloud computing business rather than shedding it back in 2023.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最後，阿里巴巴也進入了人工智能領域——這也是它選擇保留雲計算業務而不是在 2023 年剝離的原因之一。</p>
</div><p>Just a few days after Chinese start-up DeepSeek roiled the market with its low-cost, high-efficiency AI model, Alibaba unveiled its own model, Qwen 2.5-Max, which it claims is even better than DeepSeek's.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>就在中國初創公司 DeepSeek 以其低成本、高效率的 AI 模型攪動市場幾天後，阿里巴巴推出了自己的模型 Qwen 2.5-Max，聲稱其性能甚至優於 DeepSeek 的模型。</p>
</div><p>While it remains to be seen how competitive Alibaba will be in the AI race, the long-term opportunity is significant. Precedence Research suggests the industry is set to grow at an annualized pace of 19% through 2034. It's not unreasonable to believe Alibaba's AI efforts could become the next major growth engine for the company.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>雖然阿里巴巴在人工智能競賽中的競爭力還有待觀察，但長期機會是顯著的。Precedence Research 預測該行業將在 2034 年前以 19% 的年均增速增長。相信阿里巴巴的人工智能努力可能成為公司下一個主要增長引擎並不為過。</p>
</div><h2>Just keep it in perspective -- and on a short leash</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>只需保持視角清晰，並保持警惕</h2>
</div><p>Though Alibaba appears to be on the upswing, it still faces tough challenges like increasing e-commerce competition and macroeconomic struggles in China.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管阿里巴巴似乎正在回升，但仍面臨着激烈的電子商務競爭和中國宏觀經濟的挑戰。</p>
</div><p>With shares trading at just 11 times expected 2025 earnings (and still down 70% from their all-time high), I don't believe investors are pricing in nearly enough of Alibaba's potential upside. This is a rare bargain in today's market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前，阿里巴巴的股價僅為預計 2025 年收益的 11 倍（並且仍比歷史高點下跌 70%），我認為投資者並沒有充分考慮阿里巴巴的潛在上行空間。這在今天的市場中是一個罕見的便宜貨。</p>
</div><p>Just keep in mind this is apt to remain a volatile ticker in the near term.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>只需記住，這在短期內可能仍然是一個波動的股票。</p>
</div>

4 Reasons to Buy Alibaba Stock Like There's No Tomorrow

- 阿里巴巴在疫情後復甦，第三季度收入同比增長 5%。  
- 中國消費者支出回暖，電商市場前景樂觀。  
- 阿里巴巴的財務狀況良好，債務評級為 A+。

購買阿里巴巴股票的 4 個理由，抓住當下