<p><strong>微軟</strong>(MSFT 0.35%) 在 1 月 29 日發佈的財報後，股價立即下跌了 6%。這家軟件巨頭的收入和盈利均超出了華爾街的預期，但這並不足以讓投資者認為股價有理由上漲至新高。</p>
<p>主要問題似乎在於估值。微軟在過去幾年加大了資本支出，以支持人工智能（AI）項目。投資者將股價推高至 33 倍的高市盈率（P/E），期待這些支出能帶來強勁增長，但公司的盈利在過去三個季度僅同比增長了 10%。</p>
<p>投資者可能開始對這些投資的回報失去耐心。以下是該股票在 2025 年可能繼續讓投資者失望的原因。</p>
<h2>更高的資本支出並未轉化為更高的增長</h2>
<p>值得肯定的是，微軟在企業投資 AI 服務方面處於良好的競爭位置。微軟的雲收入超過 400 億美元，同比增長 21%。與 AI 相關的收入年化達到 130 億美元，同比增長 175%。</p>
<p>儘管如此，AI 的收入對這家總收入達到 2610 億美元的公司幾乎沒有影響。此外，正如其相對較低的盈利增長率所示，這小部分額外的 AI 收入是以巨大的成本換來的。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/5cc369ed926d80ed439060788c47472e.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/5cc369ed926d80ed439060788c47472e.png"/></p>
<p>數據來源於 YCharts。</p>
<p>微軟在過去三年內將數據中心的容量翻了一番。2022 年日曆年的資本支出不到 250 億美元，但在過去 12 個月中已超過 550 億美元，增長了兩倍多。</p>
<p>儘管支出加速，微軟的年同比盈利增長已從一年前的 20% 以上放緩至僅 10%，而這種盈利增長的減速發生在投資者為該股支付更高的市盈率時。即使考慮長期預期，分析師預計盈利年均增長率為 13%，這可能不足以支撐股價的 33 倍市盈率。</p>
<p>可以理解的是，更高的支出將對短期利潤率和盈利造成壓力。但即使是微軟的收入增長在過去五年中也沒有顯示出任何加速跡象。微軟上季度 12% 的年同比增長與其歷史平均水平一致。</p>
<p>這引發了關於微軟是否能獲得足夠的資本回報以證明這些鉅額技術基礎設施支出增加的質疑。</p>
<h2>股票相對昂貴，可能進一步下跌</h2>
<p>公平地説，微軟正在投資以滿足長期對 AI 和雲服務的需求。但這並不意味着該股票值得購買，尤其是當其他頂級科技公司也在投資 AI 但報告的盈利增長遠高於微軟時。</p>
<p>例如，<strong>Meta Platforms</strong> 報告第四季度的盈利同比增長 50%，分析師還預測其未來幾年的年盈利增長將達到 17%。Meta 的盈利增長速度快於微軟，而該股票的估值略便宜。投資者可以以 29 倍的市盈率購買其股票。</p>
<p>微軟確實看到了對 AI 的強勁需求，但 AI 服務並未產生足夠的收入來對公司的整體增長率產生影響。除非微軟能夠加速收入或盈利增長，否則投資者不應期待該股在短期內達到新高，如果股價修正至更低的市盈率，甚至可能會有更多下行空間。</p>

微軟

<p>微軟在發佈第二財季財報後，股價下跌了 6%，儘管其收入和盈利均超出預期。這一下降歸因於人工智能項目的高資本支出，這些支出並未轉化為顯著的盈利增長，同比僅增長了 10%。由於市盈率高達 33 且收入增長緩慢，投資者的耐心正在減弱。競爭對手如 Meta 的盈利增長速度更快且估值更低，這引發了人們對微軟是否能夠證明其股價合理性的擔憂。如果增長沒有改善，股價可能會進一步下跌</p>

<p>Share prices of <strong>Microsoft</strong>(MSFT 0.35%) were down 6% immediately following its fiscal second-quarter earnings report on Jan. 29. The software leader delivered revenue and earnings that topped Wall Street's expectations, but it wasn't enough for investors to justify bidding the share price to new highs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>微軟</strong>(MSFT 0.35%) 在 1 月 29 日發佈的財報後，股價立即下跌了 6%。這家軟件巨頭的收入和盈利均超出了華爾街的預期，但這並不足以讓投資者認為股價有理由上漲至新高。</p>
</div><p>The main issue seems to be valuation. Microsoft has accelerated its capital expenditures over the past few years to support artificial intelligence (AI) initiatives. Investors have bid the share price up to a high price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of 33 anticipating those expenditures to drive strong growth, but the company's earnings have increased just 10% year over year for the last three quarters.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>主要問題似乎在於估值。微軟在過去幾年加大了資本支出，以支持人工智能（AI）項目。投資者將股價推高至 33 倍的高市盈率（P/E），期待這些支出能帶來強勁增長，但公司的盈利在過去三個季度僅同比增長了 10%。</p>
</div><p>Investors may be starting to lose patience waiting for these investments to pay off. Here's why the stock could continue to disappoint investors in 2025.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投資者可能開始對這些投資的回報失去耐心。以下是該股票在 2025 年可能繼續讓投資者失望的原因。</p>
</div><h2>Higher capital spending is not translating to higher growth</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>更高的資本支出並未轉化為更高的增長</h2>
</div><p>To its credit, Microsoft is in a solid competitive position to benefit from enterprise investment in AI services. Microsoft's cloud revenue surpassed $40 billion and grew 21% year over year. AI-related revenue is up to $13 billion on an annualized basis, and up 175% year over year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>值得肯定的是，微軟在企業投資 AI 服務方面處於良好的競爭位置。微軟的雲收入超過 400 億美元，同比增長 21%。與 AI 相關的收入年化達到 130 億美元，同比增長 175%。</p>
</div><p>Still, the revenue from AI is barely moving the needle for a company generating $261 billion in total revenue across all products. Moreover, as its relatively low rate of earnings growth indicates, this small amount of additional AI revenue is coming at a big cost.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管如此，AI 的收入對這家總收入達到 2610 億美元的公司幾乎沒有影響。此外，正如其相對較低的盈利增長率所示，這小部分額外的 AI 收入是以巨大的成本換來的。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/5cc369ed926d80ed439060788c47472e.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/5cc369ed926d80ed439060788c47472e.png"/></p>
<p>Data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>數據來源於 YCharts。</p>
</div><p>Microsoft doubled its data center capacity over the past three years. Capital expenditures during calendar 2022 were under $25 billion but have more than doubled to $55 billion over the past 12 months.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>微軟在過去三年內將數據中心的容量翻了一番。2022 年日曆年的資本支出不到 250 億美元，但在過去 12 個月中已超過 550 億美元，增長了兩倍多。</p>
</div><p>Despite this accelerated spending curve, Microsoft's year-over-year earnings growth has slowed from over 20% a year ago to just 10%, and this deceleration in earnings growth comes as investors are paying a higher P/E multiple for the shares. Even considering long-term estimates, analysts expect earnings to grow at an annualized rate of 13%, which may not be enough to support the stock's 33 P/E.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管支出加速，微軟的年同比盈利增長已從一年前的 20% 以上放緩至僅 10%，而這種盈利增長的減速發生在投資者為該股支付更高的市盈率時。即使考慮長期預期，分析師預計盈利年均增長率為 13%，這可能不足以支撐股價的 33 倍市盈率。</p>
</div><p>It's understandable that higher spending will pressure near-term margins and earnings. But even Microsoft's revenue growth hasn't shown any acceleration over the past five years. Microsoft's 12% year-over-year increase last quarter is consistent with its historical average.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>可以理解的是，更高的支出將對短期利潤率和盈利造成壓力。但即使是微軟的收入增長在過去五年中也沒有顯示出任何加速跡象。微軟上季度 12% 的年同比增長與其歷史平均水平一致。</p>
</div><p>This raises questions about whether Microsoft is earning the returns on capital to justify these massive spending increases in technology infrastructure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這引發了關於微軟是否能獲得足夠的資本回報以證明這些鉅額技術基礎設施支出增加的質疑。</p>
</div><h2>The stock is relatively expensive and could fall further</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>股票相對昂貴，可能進一步下跌</h2>
</div><p>To be fair, Microsoft is investing to meet demand for AI and cloud services over the long term. But that doesn't make the stock a buy, especially when there are other top tech companies investing in AI but also reporting much higher earnings growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>公平地説，微軟正在投資以滿足長期對 AI 和雲服務的需求。但這並不意味着該股票值得購買，尤其是當其他頂級科技公司也在投資 AI 但報告的盈利增長遠高於微軟時。</p>
</div><p>For example, <strong>Meta Platforms</strong> reported Q4 earnings growth of 50% year over year, and analysts are also forecasting its earnings to grow 17% annually over the next several years. Meta is growing earnings faster than Microsoft, while the stock's valuation is slightly cheaper. Investors can buy shares for 29 times earnings.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>例如，<strong>Meta Platforms</strong> 報告第四季度的盈利同比增長 50%，分析師還預測其未來幾年的年盈利增長將達到 17%。Meta 的盈利增長速度快於微軟，而該股票的估值略便宜。投資者可以以 29 倍的市盈率購買其股票。</p>
</div><p>Microsoft is certainly seeing robust demand for AI, but AI services are not generating enough revenue to make an impact on the company's overall growth rate. Unless Microsoft can accelerate revenue or earnings growth, investors shouldn't expect the stock to hit new highs anytime soon, and there could even be more downside if the stock corrects to a lower P/E.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>微軟確實看到了對 AI 的強勁需求，但 AI 服務並未產生足夠的收入來對公司的整體增長率產生影響。除非微軟能夠加速收入或盈利增長，否則投資者不應期待該股在短期內達到新高，如果股價修正至更低的市盈率，甚至可能會有更多下行空間。</p>
</div>

Microsoft Stock Is Falling as Artificial Intelligence (AI) Growth Is Getting More Expensive

- 微軟發佈的財報超出預期，但股價仍下跌 6%。  
- 資本支出增加未能帶來相應的收益增長，年增長僅 10%。  
- 投資者對未來增長的耐心可能正在減弱，股價面臨進一步下跌風險。

由於人工智能（AI）增長成本增加，微軟股票下跌