<p>過去一週左右對 <strong>微軟</strong>(MSFT 0.61%) 來説非常艱難。由於中國初創公司 DeepSeek 透露其開發的人工智能（AI）模型成本遠低於這家科技巨頭迄今為止的支出，該公司的鉅額人工智能基礎設施投資受到審查。這使得微軟的股價大幅下跌。</p>
<p>在 2024 年 12 月 31 日結束的 2025 財年第二季度業績發佈後，微軟的股票承受了更大的壓力。儘管公司輕鬆超越了華爾街的盈利和收入預期，但其對當前季度的收入指引低於分析師的預期。</p>
<p>所有這些都解釋了為什麼自 1 月 27 日 DeepSeek 的消息震撼了人工智能界以來，微軟的股票下跌超過 5%。但這是否是聰明投資者在低迷時購買這隻 “七大奇蹟” 股票的機會呢？讓我們來看看。</p>
<h2>人工智能推動微軟雲業務的巨大增長</h2>
<p>在上一季度，微軟的收入同比增長 12%，公司的雲業務在推動這一兩位數增長中發揮了核心作用。智能雲業務的收入同比增長 19%。微軟的 Azure 雲服務因公司在其平台上提供的人工智能應用的快速增長而獲得了 13 個百分點的提升。</p>
<p>公司指出，上個季度其人工智能服務收入激增 157%，超出預期。然而，這家科技巨頭面臨着 “需求持續高於我們的可用能力” 的限制。因此，Azure 收入的 31% 增長略低於分析師的預期。</p>
<p>然而，投資者應更仔細地關注整體情況。微軟的人工智能產品需求如此強勁，以至於公司在合同規模和預訂方面出現了顯著增長。由於 “OpenAI 的 Azure 承諾”，該季度商業預訂激增 67%。這一數字顯著高於去年同期商業預訂 17% 的增長。</p>
<p>由於商業預訂是指微軟與大型客户簽署的新合同，因此這一指標的顯著增長對公司的未來是個好兆頭。微軟強勁的未來收入管道也體現在上個季度 2980 億美元的剩餘履約義務（RPO）中。該指標指的是公司未來將履行並確認作為收入的合同總價值，同比增加 34%。</p>
<p>毫不奇怪，微軟將加大基礎設施支出，以努力在未來履行這些合同，這理應推動未來的增長加速。上個季度，公司在資本支出方面投入了 226 億美元，超過了 209.5 億美元的市場共識預期。</p>
<p>微軟指出，“我們超過一半的雲和人工智能相關支出用於將支持未來 15 年及更長時間的長期資產。” 公司在雲和人工智能基礎設施上的剩餘支出主要用於服務器基礎設施，如圖形處理單元（GPU）和中央處理單元（CPU），以便迅速履行其龐大的 RPO。</p>
<p>這也解釋了為什麼微軟的盈利增長速度低於其收入增長速度。然而，好的一面是，微軟預計到當前財年結束時，其人工智能能力將與需求相匹配，這得益於其資本支出的顯著增加。這將為未來更強勁的增長鋪平道路。</p>
<h2>現在值得購買這隻股票嗎？</h2>
<p>我們已經看到微軟有大量未完成的合同。事實上，其 RPO 的規模高於公司在過去 12 個月中產生的 2540 億美元收入。未來微軟的 RPO 增長加速並不令人驚訝。根據 Grand View Research，雲人工智能服務市場預計到 2030 年將實現近 40% 的年增長。</p>
<p>以上所有因素都告訴我們，分析師預計微軟的盈利增長將在 2025 財年實現 11% 的增長，達到每股 13.15 美元。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/9db60da4a7fe92441f530a864efb823d.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/9db60da4a7fe92441f530a864efb823d.png"/></p>
<p>微軟當前財年每股收益預期數據來自 YCharts。</p>
<p>上面的圖表顯示，微軟在未來兩個財年內的盈利將分別增長 14% 和 17%。因此，在最近的回調後購買這隻股票可能是個好主意，因為它目前的市盈率為 33 倍，符合以科技股為主的 <strong>納斯達克 100</strong> 指數的市盈率水平。</p>
<p>由於微軟能夠抓住雲基礎人工智能服務市場的巨大可尋址機會，其盈利增長的潛在改善指向了這隻人工智能股票的光明未來。</p>

微軟

<p>微軟的股票因其人工智能投資受到審查以及營收指引低於預期而下跌超過 5%，儘管其盈利預期超出市場預期。然而，該公司的雲業務表現強勁，營收增長 19%，人工智能服務營收激增 157%。微軟擁有強大的未來收入管道，剩餘履約義務達到 2980 億美元，並計劃增加基礎設施支出。分析師預計盈利增長將加速，這使得該股票在以 33 倍市盈率交易時成為投資者的潛在買入機會，與納斯達克 100 指數相符</p>

<p>The past week or so have been rough for <strong>Microsoft</strong>(MSFT 0.61%). The company's massive investment in artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure came under scrutiny following Chinese start-up DeepSeek's revelation that it has developed AI models at a fraction of the cost that the tech giant has spent so far. This sent Microsoft shares into a tailspin.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>過去一週左右對 <strong>微軟</strong>(MSFT 0.61%) 來説非常艱難。由於中國初創公司 DeepSeek 透露其開發的人工智能（AI）模型成本遠低於這家科技巨頭迄今為止的支出，該公司的鉅額人工智能基礎設施投資受到審查。這使得微軟的股價大幅下跌。</p>
</div><p>Microsoft stock came under more pressure following the release of results for its fiscal 2025's second quarter (ended Dec. 31, 2024) on Jan. 29. Though the company beat Wall Street's earnings and revenue expectations easily, its revenue guidance for the current quarter was lower than what analysts were expecting.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2024 年 12 月 31 日結束的 2025 財年第二季度業績發佈後，微軟的股票承受了更大的壓力。儘管公司輕鬆超越了華爾街的盈利和收入預期，但其對當前季度的收入指引低於分析師的預期。</p>
</div><p>All this explains why Microsoft stock is down more than 5% since Jan. 27, when DeepSeek's news rocked the AI world. But is this an opportunity for savvy investors to buy this Magnificent Seven stock on the dip? Let's find out.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>所有這些都解釋了為什麼自 1 月 27 日 DeepSeek 的消息震撼了人工智能界以來，微軟的股票下跌超過 5%。但這是否是聰明投資者在低迷時購買這隻 “七大奇蹟” 股票的機會呢？讓我們來看看。</p>
</div><h2>AI is driving tremendous growth in Microsoft's cloud business</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>人工智能推動微軟雲業務的巨大增長</h2>
</div><p>Microsoft's revenue rose 12% year over year in the previous quarter, with the company's cloud business playing a central role in driving this double-digit growth. It recorded a 19% year-over-year increase in revenue from the Intelligent Cloud business. Microsoft's Azure cloud services got a boost of 13 percentage points from the fast-growing demand for AI applications that the company has been offering on its platform.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在上一季度，微軟的收入同比增長 12%，公司的雲業務在推動這一兩位數增長中發揮了核心作用。智能雲業務的收入同比增長 19%。微軟的 Azure 雲服務因公司在其平台上提供的人工智能應用的快速增長而獲得了 13 個百分點的提升。</p>
</div><p>The company points out that it witnessed a whopping 157% jump in AI services revenue last quarter, exceeding its expectations. However, the tech giant faced constraints as &#34;demand continued to be higher than our available capacity.&#34; As a result, the 31% jump in Azure revenue fell slightly below analysts' expectations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>公司指出，上個季度其人工智能服務收入激增 157%，超出預期。然而，這家科技巨頭面臨着 “需求持續高於我們的可用能力” 的限制。因此，Azure 收入的 31% 增長略低於分析師的預期。</p>
</div><p>However, investors will do well to take a closer look at the bigger picture. The demand for Microsoft's AI offerings is so solid that the company has been witnessing a major uptick in contract sizes and bookings. It saw a terrific jump of 67% in commercial bookings during the quarter on the back of &#34;Azure commitments from OpenAI.&#34; That number is significantly higher than the 17% increase in commercial bookings in the year-ago period.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，投資者應更仔細地關注整體情況。微軟的人工智能產品需求如此強勁，以至於公司在合同規模和預訂方面出現了顯著增長。由於 “OpenAI 的 Azure 承諾”，該季度商業預訂激增 67%。這一數字顯著高於去年同期商業預訂 17% 的增長。</p>
</div><p>As commercial bookings refer to the new contracts signed by Microsoft with large customers, the impressive jump in this metric bodes well for the company's future. Microsoft's robust future revenue pipeline is also evident from its remaining performance obligations (RPO) of $298 billion in the previous quarter. This metric, which refers to the total value of the company's contracts that will be fulfilled in the future and recognized as revenue, increased by 34% from the year-ago period.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由於商業預訂是指微軟與大型客户簽署的新合同，因此這一指標的顯著增長對公司的未來是個好兆頭。微軟強勁的未來收入管道也體現在上個季度 2980 億美元的剩餘履約義務（RPO）中。該指標指的是公司未來將履行並確認作為收入的合同總價值，同比增加 34%。</p>
</div><p>Not surprisingly, Microsoft is going to ramp up its infrastructure spending as it strives to fulfill these contracts in the future, which should ideally lead to an acceleration in growth going forward. The company allocated $22.6 billion toward capital expenditure last quarter, which was above the $20.95 billion consensus estimate.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>毫不奇怪，微軟將加大基礎設施支出，以努力在未來履行這些合同，這理應推動未來的增長加速。上個季度，公司在資本支出方面投入了 226 億美元，超過了 209.5 億美元的市場共識預期。</p>
</div><p>Microsoft points out that &#34;more than half of our cloud and AI-related spend was on long-lived assets that will support monetization over the next 15 years and beyond.&#34; The company's remaining spending on cloud and AI infrastructure is directed toward server infrastructure such as graphics processing units (GPUs) and central processing units (CPUs), as it rushes to fulfill the massive RPO it is sitting on.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>微軟指出，“我們超過一半的雲和人工智能相關支出用於將支持未來 15 年及更長時間的長期資產。” 公司在雲和人工智能基礎設施上的剩餘支出主要用於服務器基礎設施，如圖形處理單元（GPU）和中央處理單元（CPU），以便迅速履行其龐大的 RPO。</p>
</div><p>This also explains why Microsoft's earnings grew at a slower pace than its revenue last quarter. However, the good part is that Microsoft is expecting its AI capacity to match demand by the end of the current fiscal year, owing to the substantial increase in its capital expenses. That should pave the way for stronger growth going forward.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這也解釋了為什麼微軟的盈利增長速度低於其收入增長速度。然而，好的一面是，微軟預計到當前財年結束時，其人工智能能力將與需求相匹配，這得益於其資本支出的顯著增加。這將為未來更強勁的增長鋪平道路。</p>
</div><h2>Is the stock worth buying now?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>現在值得購買這隻股票嗎？</h2>
</div><p>We have already seen that Microsoft has a massive backlog of contracts. In fact, the size of its RPO is higher than the $254 billion revenue that the company has generated in the past 12 months. It won't be surprising to see Microsoft's RPO growth accelerating in the future. The cloud AI services market is expected to clock almost 40% annual growth through 2030, according to Grand View Research.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我們已經看到微軟有大量未完成的合同。事實上，其 RPO 的規模高於公司在過去 12 個月中產生的 2540 億美元收入。未來微軟的 RPO 增長加速並不令人驚訝。根據 Grand View Research，雲人工智能服務市場預計到 2030 年將實現近 40% 的年增長。</p>
</div><p>All of the above tell us why analysts are expecting Microsoft's earnings growth to step on the gas following an 11% jump in its bottom line in fiscal 2025 to $13.15 per share.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>以上所有因素都告訴我們，分析師預計微軟的盈利增長將在 2025 財年實現 11% 的增長，達到每股 13.15 美元。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/9db60da4a7fe92441f530a864efb823d.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/9db60da4a7fe92441f530a864efb823d.png"/></p>
<p>MSFT EPS Estimates for Current Fiscal Year data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>微軟當前財年每股收益預期數據來自 YCharts。</p>
</div><p>The chart above points toward an increase of 14% and 17% in Microsoft's earnings over the next two fiscal years. That's why it may be a good idea to buy this stock following its recent pullback, as it is trading at 33 times earnings right now, which is in line with the tech-laden <strong>Nasdaq-100</strong> index's earnings multiple.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>上面的圖表顯示，微軟在未來兩個財年內的盈利將分別增長 14% 和 17%。因此，在最近的回調後購買這隻股票可能是個好主意，因為它目前的市盈率為 33 倍，符合以科技股為主的 <strong>納斯達克 100</strong> 指數的市盈率水平。</p>
</div><p>A potential improvement in Microsoft's earnings growth thanks to its ability to tap the huge addressable opportunity in the cloud-based AI services market points toward a bright future for this AI stock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由於微軟能夠抓住雲基礎人工智能服務市場的巨大可尋址機會，其盈利增長的潛在改善指向了這隻人工智能股票的光明未來。</p>
</div>

Is Microsoft Stock a Buy Now?

- 微軟因中國初創公司 DeepSeek 的 AI 模型成本低於其投資而遭受股價下跌。  
- 儘管財報超出預期，但未來收入指引低於分析師預期，導致股價下滑。  
- 隨着 AI 服務需求強勁，微軟的商業預訂增長 67%，未來增長前景樂觀。  

微軟的股票現在值得購買嗎？