<p>不可否認的是，<strong>Alphabet</strong>（GOOG -3.19%）（GOOGL -3.27%）的雲計算業務在第四季度顯然未能達到預期。投資者對公司計劃在人工智能（AI）上的支出也並不感到興奮。</p>
<p>股東們為此付出了代價，週二公司發佈第四季度財報後，股價大幅下跌。</p>
<p>不過，不要過於驚慌於這種看跌反應。有幾個重要細節支持了該股票的整體看漲論點，但在財報發佈後的喧囂中被掩蓋了。</p>
<h2>從數字看</h2>
<p>截至 12 月的三個月裏，Alphabet 的收入為 965 億美元，每股利潤為 2.15 美元。兩者均較去年同期有所上升，基本符合預期。</p>
<p>不過，所有的目光都集中在公司的雲業務上，但它未能令人滿意。儘管雲收入接近 120 億美元，同比增長 30%，產生的營業收入略低於 21 億美元，但分析師們預計的收入接近 122 億美元。小幅的短缺突顯了 Alphabet 雲計算增長放緩的事實。</p>
<p>不過，如下圖所示，自 2020 年初以來，Google Cloud 的收入和利潤保持着相同的前進勢頭。從技術和數學的角度來看，第四季度的雲收入增長速度慢於第三季度的 36% 的增長，但第三季度的加速增長在某種程度上是個例外。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDY2MjgvMDIwNTI1LWdvb2dsZS1jbG91ZC1yZXN1bHRzLnBuZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDY2MjgvMDIwNTI1LWdvb2dsZS1jbG91ZC1yZXN1bHRzLnBuZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>數據來源：Alphabet Inc. 作者圖表。</p>
<p>整體來看，收益勉強超過每股 2.13 美元的預期，而收入則比分析師預測的 965.6 億美元少了幾百萬美元。這兩者都未能反映出 Alphabet 通常強勁的超預期表現。</p>
<p>不過，再仔細看看這些數字會發現，除了 Google Network 外，Alphabet 的所有核心利潤中心的銷售和營業收入都經歷了強勁的增長。造成整體失望的主要是 “其他賭注” 部門。其收入從 2023 年最後一個季度的 6.57 億美元下降到 12 個月後的 4 億美元，而其虧損則從 8.63 億美元惡化到近 12 億美元。如果不是因為這個失誤，Alphabet 本可以輕鬆超出整體預期。</p>
<p>其他賭注部門是其最具實驗性和成本最高的項目所在，如機器人出租車 Waymo、生命科學品牌 Verily 以及其機器人軟件 Intrinsic。這些努力伴隨着高風險、高成本和高回報，但它們並不容易產生一致或可預測的結果。</p>
<p>儘管如此，儘管公司的雲計算業務面臨報告的阻力，其他賭注部門的季度表現不佳，Alphabet 從未像現在這樣產生更多的收入或利潤。其利潤率也仍然保持在 32.1% 的強勁水平。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDY2MjgvMDIwNTI1LWFscGhhYmV0LXJlc3VsdHMucG5nJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDY2MjgvMDIwNTI1LWFscGhhYmV0LXJlc3VsdHMucG5nJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>數據來源：Alphabet。作者圖表。</p>
<h2>機會來臨</h2>
<p>那麼，為什麼週三會出現拋售？</p>
<p>關於 Alphabet 雲業務的悲觀頭條新聞顯然讓市場感到不安，尤其是大多數報道未能提供上述兩張圖表所提供的背景。</p>
<p>話雖如此，建議股票在財報發佈後無論管理層週二晚上説了什麼，都可能面臨拋售壓力，這並不算牽強。</p>
<p>司法部正在施壓 Alphabet 出售其 Chrome 瀏覽器，這削弱了其將消費者與搜索引擎連接的關鍵方式。而且它正在與歐盟進行一場激烈的法律鬥爭，以撤銷對其安裝在全球大多數移動設備上的 Android 操作系統處以的數十億美元的反壟斷罰款。</p>
<p>在這種背景下，令人驚訝的是，這隻股票在週二晚上發佈第四季度業績前能夠攀升至歷史高點。相反，這種脆弱的反彈在面對即使是稍微令人擔憂的數字時，竟如此脆弱，也並不令人意外。</p>
<p>投資者似乎並不太高興公司計劃在今年再花 750 億美元用於 AI 數據中心（比預期多出 29%），而不是希望這種支出至少開始趨於平穩。</p>
<p>無論如何，不要急於得出任何全面的結論。這隻股票在週二的報告前已經處於一個不尋常的位置。然後，金融媒體的幾條缺乏適當背景的曲線球出現了：Alphabet 最重要的業務仍在良好增長，而其新興業務如 AI 仍然充滿希望。</p>
<p>更重要的是，即使近期的拋售尚未完全結束，週三的挫折也是一個長期的買入機會。</p>
<p>即使沒有 Chrome，Alphabet 仍可能是大多數人數字連接世界的核心。根據 GlobalStats，其 Google 搜索引擎仍處理着全球約 90% 的網絡搜索。</p>
<p>而 <strong>高盛</strong> 認為，全球雲計算行業預計將在 2030 年前以超過 20% 的年均速度增長，而市場研究公司 Technavio 預測，全球 AI 平台市場將在 2028 年前以 45% 的年化速度擴張。</p>
<p>因此，Alphabet 面臨着大量的機會。上個季度（尤其是關於上個季度的評論）並不能準確代表這家公司的潛力。這次下跌是對感興趣的投資者的買入機會。</p>

谷歌-A

谷歌-C

<p>Alphabet 的雲計算業務未能達到第四季度的預期，導致其股票出現拋售。儘管收入為 965 億美元，每股利潤為 2.15 美元，但近 120 億美元的雲收入低於分析師的預期。公司的其他投資板塊也令人失望，但總體而言，Alphabet 創造了創紀錄的收入和利潤率。市場的反應受到持續法律壓力和對人工智能支出增加的影響。然而，分析師建議，這一跌幅為長期買入提供了機會，因為 Alphabet 的核心業務仍在持續增長</p>

<p>There's no denying it: <strong>Alphabet</strong>'s (GOOG -3.19%) (GOOGL -3.27%) cloud computing business simply came up short of expectations in the fourth quarter. Investors aren't exactly thrilled with the company's intended expenditures on artificial intelligence (AI), either.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不可否認的是，<strong>Alphabet</strong>（GOOG -3.19%）（GOOGL -3.27%）的雲計算業務在第四季度顯然未能達到預期。投資者對公司計劃在人工智能（AI）上的支出也並不感到興奮。</p>
</div><p>Shareholders paid the price, in the form of a sizable sell-off following Tuesday's release of the company's fourth-quarter numbers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>股東們為此付出了代價，週二公司發佈第四季度財報後，股價大幅下跌。</p>
</div><p>Don't be too rattled by the bearish response, though. A couple of important details that support the overall bullish case for the stock were obscured by all the post-earnings noise.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不過，不要過於驚慌於這種看跌反應。有幾個重要細節支持了該股票的整體看漲論點，但在財報發佈後的喧囂中被掩蓋了。</p>
</div><h2>By the numbers</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>從數字看</h2>
</div><p>For the three months ending in December, Alphabet turned $96.5 billion in revenue into a per-share profit of $2.15.Both were up from year-ago levels and more or less in line with expectations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至 12 月的三個月裏，Alphabet 的收入為 965 億美元，每股利潤為 2.15 美元。兩者均較去年同期有所上升，基本符合預期。</p>
</div><p>All eyes were on the company's cloud business, though, which failed to satisfy. Although cloud revenue of nearly $12 billion soared 30% year over year to generate operating income of just under $2.1 billion, analysts were looking for a top-line figure of just under $12.2 billion. The small shortfall underscored the fact that Alphabet's cloud computing growth is slowing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不過，所有的目光都集中在公司的雲業務上，但它未能令人滿意。儘管雲收入接近 120 億美元，同比增長 30%，產生的營業收入略低於 21 億美元，但分析師們預計的收入接近 122 億美元。小幅的短缺突顯了 Alphabet 雲計算增長放緩的事實。</p>
</div><p>Except that as the chart below shows, going all the way back to early 2020, Google Cloud's top and bottom lines are maintaining the same forward progress based on the bigger picture. From a technical and mathematical perspective, the fourth quarter's cloud revenue growth is slower than the third quarter's 36% increase, but the third quarter's accelerated growth was something of an outlier.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不過，如下圖所示，自 2020 年初以來，Google Cloud 的收入和利潤保持着相同的前進勢頭。從技術和數學的角度來看，第四季度的雲收入增長速度慢於第三季度的 36% 的增長，但第三季度的加速增長在某種程度上是個例外。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDY2MjgvMDIwNTI1LWdvb2dsZS1jbG91ZC1yZXN1bHRzLnBuZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F806628%2F020525-google-cloud-results.png&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Data source: Alphabet Inc. Chart by author.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>數據來源：Alphabet Inc. 作者圖表。</p>
</div><p>Companywide, earnings barely beat expectations of $2.13 per share, while revenue was a few million bucks shy of the $96.56 billion analysts were modeling. Neither reflects Alphabet's typical strong estimate-beating form.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>整體來看，收益勉強超過每股 2.13 美元的預期，而收入則比分析師預測的 965.6 億美元少了幾百萬美元。這兩者都未能反映出 Alphabet 通常強勁的超預期表現。</p>
</div><p>Again, though, a closer look at the numbers will show that except for the Google Network, all of Alphabet's core profit centers experienced robust growth in sales and operating income. It was the &#34;other bets&#34; division that accounted for most of the overall disappointment. Its revenue slipped from $657 million in the final quarter of 2023 to $400 million 12 months later, while its loss worsened from $863 million to nearly $1.2 million.Were it not for that stumble, Alphabet would have handily topped its overall estimates.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不過，再仔細看看這些數字會發現，除了 Google Network 外，Alphabet 的所有核心利潤中心的銷售和營業收入都經歷了強勁的增長。造成整體失望的主要是 “其他賭注” 部門。其收入從 2023 年最後一個季度的 6.57 億美元下降到 12 個月後的 4 億美元，而其虧損則從 8.63 億美元惡化到近 12 億美元。如果不是因為這個失誤，Alphabet 本可以輕鬆超出整體預期。</p>
</div><p>The other bets segment is where you'll find its most experimental and costliest projects, like the robotaxi Waymo, the life sciences brand Verily, and its robotics software Intrinsic. These efforts carry high risks, high costs, and high payoffs, but they don't lend themselves to consistent or predictable results.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>其他賭注部門是其最具實驗性和成本最高的項目所在，如機器人出租車 Waymo、生命科學品牌 Verily 以及其機器人軟件 Intrinsic。這些努力伴隨着高風險、高成本和高回報，但它們並不容易產生一致或可預測的結果。</p>
</div><p>Even so, despite the company's cloud computing business' reported headwind and other bets' rough quarter, Alphabet has never generated more revenue or produced more profit than right now. Its profit margins are also still about as strong as they've ever been, at 32.1% of revenue.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管如此，儘管公司的雲計算業務面臨報告的阻力，其他賭注部門的季度表現不佳，Alphabet 從未像現在這樣產生更多的收入或利潤。其利潤率也仍然保持在 32.1% 的強勁水平。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDY2MjgvMDIwNTI1LWFscGhhYmV0LXJlc3VsdHMucG5nJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F806628%2F020525-alphabet-results.png&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Data source: Alphabet. Chart by author.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>數據來源：Alphabet。作者圖表。</p>
</div><h2>Opportunity knocks</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>機會來臨</h2>
</div><p>So why was there a sell-off on Wednesday?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>那麼，為什麼週三會出現拋售？</p>
</div><p>The dour headlines about Alphabet's cloud business understandably rattled the market, particularly given that most of the reporting failed to offer the context that the two charts above provide.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>關於 Alphabet 雲業務的悲觀頭條新聞顯然讓市場感到不安，尤其是大多數報道未能提供上述兩張圖表所提供的背景。</p>
</div><p>That being said, it's also not a stretch to suggest the stock was vulnerable to a post-earnings sell-off no matter what management said Tuesday evening.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>話雖如此，建議股票在財報發佈後無論管理層週二晚上説了什麼，都可能面臨拋售壓力，這並不算牽強。</p>
</div><p>The Justice Department is pressuring Alphabet to sell its Chrome browser, undermining one of the key ways it connects consumers to its search engine.And it's fighting a brutal legal battle with the European Union to undo a multibillion-dollar antitrust fine levied against its Android operating system installed on most of the world's mobile devices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>司法部正在施壓 Alphabet 出售其 Chrome 瀏覽器，這削弱了其將消費者與搜索引擎連接的關鍵方式。而且它正在與歐盟進行一場激烈的法律鬥爭，以撤銷對其安裝在全球大多數移動設備上的 Android 操作系統處以的數十億美元的反壟斷罰款。</p>
</div><p>Given this backdrop, it's surprising this stock was able to climb to a record high headed into Tuesday evening's release of its fourth-quarter results. Conversely, it's not surprising this fragile rally ended up being so vulnerable to even modestly concerning numbers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在這種背景下，令人驚訝的是，這隻股票在週二晚上發佈第四季度業績前能夠攀升至歷史高點。相反，這種脆弱的反彈在面對即使是稍微令人擔憂的數字時，竟如此脆弱，也並不令人意外。</p>
</div><p>Investors don't exactly seem thrilled that the company plans to spend another $75 billion on AI data centers this year (29% more than expected) rather than seeing this spending at least begin to level off.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投資者似乎並不太高興公司計劃在今年再花 750 億美元用於 AI 數據中心（比預期多出 29%），而不是希望這種支出至少開始趨於平穩。</p>
</div><p>Ragardless, don't be too quick to come to any sweeping conclusions. This ticker was already in an unusual position headed into Tuesday's report. Then there were the couple of curveballs from the financial media that lacked the proper context: the fact that Alphabet's most important businesses are still growing quite well, while its newer ventures like AI remain promising.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>無論如何，不要急於得出任何全面的結論。這隻股票在週二的報告前已經處於一個不尋常的位置。然後，金融媒體的幾條缺乏適當背景的曲線球出現了：Alphabet 最重要的業務仍在良好增長，而其新興業務如 AI 仍然充滿希望。</p>
</div><p>More to the point, even if the recent selling has yet to run its full course, Wednesday's setback is a long-term buying opportunity.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>更重要的是，即使近期的拋售尚未完全結束，週三的挫折也是一個長期的買入機會。</p>
</div><p>Even without Chrome, Alphabet is likely to remain the centerpiece of most peoples' digital connection to the world. Its Google search engine still handles about 90% of the world's web searches, according to GlobalStats.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>即使沒有 Chrome，Alphabet 仍可能是大多數人數字連接世界的核心。根據 GlobalStats，其 Google 搜索引擎仍處理着全球約 90% 的網絡搜索。</p>
</div><p>And <strong>Goldman Sachs</strong> believes the worldwide cloud computing industry is poised to grow at an average annual pace of more than 20% through 2030, while market researcher Technavio predicts the global AI platform market will expand at an annualized pace of 45% through 2028.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>而 <strong>高盛</strong> 認為，全球雲計算行業預計將在 2030 年前以超過 20% 的年均速度增長，而市場研究公司 Technavio 預測，全球 AI 平台市場將在 2028 年前以 45% 的年化速度擴張。</p>
</div><p>So there's plenty of opportunity ahead for Alphabet to tap into. Last quarter (and in particular the commentary regarding last quarter) isn't an accurate representation of this company's potential. This dip is a buying opportunity for interested investors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，Alphabet 面臨着大量的機會。上個季度（尤其是關於上個季度的評論）並不能準確代表這家公司的潛力。這次下跌是對感興趣的投資者的買入機會。</p>
</div>

I'd Still Buy Alphabet Stock Despite the Stumble Over Q4 Cloud Growth. Here's Why.

- Alphabet 第四季度雲計算業務未達預期，導致股東拋售。  
- 儘管雲收入增長放緩，但整體利潤和收入創歷史新高。  
- 投資者應關注長期機會，AI 和雲計算市場仍具增長潛力。

儘管第四季度雲業務增長出現失誤，我仍然會購買 Alphabet 的股票。以下是原因