<p>阿斯瓦斯特·達莫達蘭是紐約大學斯特恩商學院的一位傑出教授。特別是，達莫達蘭專注於估值——他撰寫了幾本關於該主題的書籍，並經常向公眾發佈他的模型和預測。多年來，達莫達蘭在金融記者和媒體人士中被稱為 “估值之父”。</p>
<p>上週，達莫達蘭發佈了關於 <strong>英偉達</strong>(NVDA 0.90%) 的新預測——預計股價將從當前水平（截至 2 月 5 日）下跌 37%。</p>
<p>接下來，我將詳細説明達莫達蘭的邏輯，以幫助解釋他為何預測如此下跌。之後，我會給出我對他悲觀預測的看法，説明我為何並不完全認同。</p>
<h2>DeepSeek 改變了芯片敍事……還是沒有？</h2>
<p>到現在為止，你可能已經熟悉了人工智能最新的討論點——即一家名為 DeepSeek 的中國初創公司。DeepSeek 是人工智能領域最新出現的公司，聲稱它開發了具有顛覆性應用的技術，成本僅為構建 OpenAI 或 Anthropic 主流模型的一小部分。</p>
<p>在達莫達蘭的分析中，他表示 DeepSeek“改變了人工智能的故事”，將 “創造一個分化的人工智能市場，其中包括一部分低端人工智能產品，這些產品被商品化且競爭激烈，以及一部分高端產品。”</p>
<p>從表面上看，我理解達莫達蘭的意思。如果（關鍵字 “如果”）DeepSeek 建立了一個與現有人工智能模型相當或更優越的平台，並且以更低的基礎設施成本實現，那麼英偉達作為芯片領域的王者的地位似乎會受到威脅。</p>
<p>對我來説，上述論點仍然更多的是一種理論。似乎每小時都有更多關於 DeepSeek 的報道發佈，其中許多現在聲稱這家初創公司獲得的資金遠超過其最初聲稱的 600 萬美元。如果是這樣，那麼英偉達就不必太擔心。</p>
<p>但在一個 DeepSeek 的建設成本遠低於投入 OpenAI 及其合作伙伴的資金的世界裏，我仍然認為這種情況對英偉達並不是壞事。原因實際上與達莫達蘭關於芯片商品化的觀點相一致。</p>
<p>目前，眾所周知，英偉達的許多最大客户包括雲計算巨頭如 <strong>微軟</strong>、<strong>谷歌</strong> 和 <strong>亞馬遜</strong>。此外，像 <strong>Meta Platforms</strong> 和 <strong>特斯拉</strong> 這樣的科技巨頭也是英偉達最大的用户之一。還有一點也很明顯，這些公司正在大力投資內部芯片技術，並與成本更低的供應商合作，如 <strong>超微半導體</strong>。</p>
<p>這些投資的理由並不是因為英偉達的芯片未能達到預期，而是因為這些企業正在尋求多樣化自己的平台，並在此過程中創造節省成本的機會。隨着更多芯片進入市場，這些產品無論如何都會變得有些商品化。在我看來，DeepSeek 並沒有改變芯片成為商品硬件產品的敍事——反而是強化了這一觀點。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDYyOTcvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTMyMjAxNzMwNC0yLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDYyOTcvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTMyMjAxNzMwNC0yLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>精確數字可能更模糊，但大局講述的是同樣的故事</h2>
<p>我承認，目前唯一看起來有些模糊的領域是英偉達的增長軌跡。我認為 DeepSeek 的出現使投資者開始考慮一個不太方便（但可能）的想法，即英偉達的增長可能在某一天會以顯著的速度開始減速。</p>
<p>雖然這樣的擔憂是合理的，但目前大科技公司似乎仍然是英偉達門口的第一批客户。Meta 首席執行官馬克·扎克伯格以及微軟領導層的評論都表明，未來可預見的時間內對人工智能基礎設施的投資將繼續。</p>
<p>很難準確確定其中有多少支出將用於英偉達，但我非常有信心，作為領先的芯片製造商，英偉達將在未來繼續成為全球頂尖人工智能企業的核心。</p>
<h2>現在是購買英偉達股票的好時機嗎？</h2>
<p>諷刺的是，即使英偉達最大的客户公開表示他們的資本支出（capex）預算仍然強勁，股票仍然在下跌。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/73f57655b2d351cac229d650835cf983.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/73f57655b2d351cac229d650835cf983.png"/></p>
<p>NVDA 數據來源於 YCharts。</p>
<p>老實説，我不會感到驚訝，如果英偉達的股票在公司於 2 月 26 日報告財報之前繼續下跌。到那時，我認為投資者和分析師將擁有足夠的細節，能夠預測人工智能支出在短期和長期的情況。</p>
<p>我的逆向觀點是，在英偉達的第四季度電話會議上，公司領導將強調一點：對其芯片的需求——包括最新和最昂貴的架構——依然強勁，並且在一段時間內應該會繼續如此。</p>
<p>因此，我不會感到驚訝看到英偉達的股票開始以一種史詩般的方式反彈。就目前而言，我認為英偉達股票的下跌是絕佳的買入機會，並且認為該股票將從現在的水平大幅上漲。</p>

英偉達

<p>阿斯瓦斯特·達莫達蘭（Aswath Damodaran），被譽為 “估值之父”，預測英偉達的股票將因人工智能初創公司 DeepSeek 的競爭而下跌 37%。然而，作者認為 DeepSeek 的出現可能不會對英偉達構成重大威脅，因為主要科技公司仍在持續投資於英偉達的芯片。儘管對英偉達的增長軌跡存在擔憂，但對其產品的需求依然強勁，作者相信英偉達將在人工智能市場中保持核心地位。投資者可能會在英偉達於 2 月 26 日發佈的財報之前看到股票波動，這可能會澄清未來的人工智能支出</p>

<p>Aswath Damodaran is an accomplished professor at New York University's Stern School of Business. In particular, Damodaran specializes in valuation -- having written several books on the topic, and often publishing his models and forecasts to the public. Over the years, Damodaran has become known as the &#34;Dean of Valuation&#34; among financial journalists and media personalities.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>阿斯瓦斯特·達莫達蘭是紐約大學斯特恩商學院的一位傑出教授。特別是，達莫達蘭專注於估值——他撰寫了幾本關於該主題的書籍，並經常向公眾發佈他的模型和預測。多年來，達莫達蘭在金融記者和媒體人士中被稱為 “估值之父”。</p>
</div><p>Last week, Damodaran published a new forecast around <strong>Nvidia</strong>(NVDA 0.90%) -- calling for a 37% drop in share price from current levels (as of Feb. 5).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>上週，達莫達蘭發佈了關於 <strong>英偉達</strong>(NVDA 0.90%) 的新預測——預計股價將從當前水平（截至 2 月 5 日）下跌 37%。</p>
</div><p>Below, I'm going to detail Damodaran's logic to help explain why he's calling for such a drop. From there, I'll give my take on why I'm not fully aligned with his bearish forecast.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>接下來，我將詳細説明達莫達蘭的邏輯，以幫助解釋他為何預測如此下跌。之後，我會給出我對他悲觀預測的看法，説明我為何並不完全認同。</p>
</div><h2>DeepSeek changed the chip narrative...or did it?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>DeepSeek 改變了芯片敍事……還是沒有？</h2>
</div><p>By now, you're probably familiar with AI's newest talking point -- namely, a Chinese start-up called DeepSeek. DeepSeek is the latest company to emerge in the AI realm, claiming it's developed game-changing applications for a fraction of the cost used to build mainstream models from OpenAI or Anthropic.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>到現在為止，你可能已經熟悉了人工智能最新的討論點——即一家名為 DeepSeek 的中國初創公司。DeepSeek 是人工智能領域最新出現的公司，聲稱它開發了具有顛覆性應用的技術，成本僅為構建 OpenAI 或 Anthropic 主流模型的一小部分。</p>
</div><p>In Damodaran's analysis, he states that DeepSeek has &#34;changed the AI story&#34; that will &#34;create a bifurcated AI market, with a segment of low-grade AI products that is commoditized and highly competitive and a segment of premium products.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在達莫達蘭的分析中，他表示 DeepSeek“改變了人工智能的故事”，將 “創造一個分化的人工智能市場，其中包括一部分低端人工智能產品，這些產品被商品化且競爭激烈，以及一部分高端產品。”</p>
</div><p>On the surface, I understand what Damodaran is getting at. If (key word &#34;If&#34;) DeepSeek has built a platform on par with or superior to existing AI models and did so with less costly infrastructure, Nvidia's position as the king of the chip realm would appear jeopardized.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>從表面上看，我理解達莫達蘭的意思。如果（關鍵字 “如果”）DeepSeek 建立了一個與現有人工智能模型相當或更優越的平台，並且以更低的基礎設施成本實現，那麼英偉達作為芯片領域的王者的地位似乎會受到威脅。</p>
</div><p>To me, the above contention is still more of a theory than anything. It seems that each hour, more stories are publishing about DeepSeek -- many of which are now alleging the start-up was funded with much more than the initial $6 million it claimed. If that's the case, then Nvidia has less to worry about.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>對我來説，上述論點仍然更多的是一種理論。似乎每小時都有更多關於 DeepSeek 的報道發佈，其中許多現在聲稱這家初創公司獲得的資金遠超過其最初聲稱的 600 萬美元。如果是這樣，那麼英偉達就不必太擔心。</p>
</div><p>But in a world where DeepSeek was built for far less than funding compared to what was plowed into OpenAI and its cohorts, I still don't see such a notion as a bad thing for Nvidia. The reason actually lines up with Damodaran's point of chipware becoming commoditized.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但在一個 DeepSeek 的建設成本遠低於投入 OpenAI 及其合作伙伴的資金的世界裏，我仍然認為這種情況對英偉達並不是壞事。原因實際上與達莫達蘭關於芯片商品化的觀點相一致。</p>
</div><p>Right now, it's well known that many of Nvidia's largest customers include cloud hyperscalers such as <strong>Microsoft</strong>, <strong>Alphabet</strong>, and <strong>Amazon</strong>. Moreover, big tech giants such as <strong>Meta Platforms</strong> and <strong>Tesla</strong> are also some of Nvidia's biggest adopters. What is <em>also</em> known is that many of these companies are investing heavily into internal chipware and working with lower-cost providers, such as <strong>Advanced Micro Devices</strong>.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前，眾所周知，英偉達的許多最大客户包括雲計算巨頭如 <strong>微軟</strong>、<strong>谷歌</strong> 和 <strong>亞馬遜</strong>。此外，像 <strong>Meta Platforms</strong> 和 <strong>特斯拉</strong> 這樣的科技巨頭也是英偉達最大的用户之一。還有一點也很明顯，這些公司正在大力投資內部芯片技術，並與成本更低的供應商合作，如 <strong>超微半導體</strong>。</p>
</div><p>The rationale behind these investments is not that Nvidia's chips are falling short of expectations, but rather because these businesses are seeking ways to diversify their own platforms and create cost-saving opportunities in the process. As more chips enter the market, these products would become somewhat commoditized anyway. In my mind, DeepSeek doesn't change the narrative of chips becoming a commodity hardware product at all -- it's reinforcing the idea.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這些投資的理由並不是因為英偉達的芯片未能達到預期，而是因為這些企業正在尋求多樣化自己的平台，並在此過程中創造節省成本的機會。隨着更多芯片進入市場，這些產品無論如何都會變得有些商品化。在我看來，DeepSeek 並沒有改變芯片成為商品硬件產品的敍事——反而是強化了這一觀點。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDYyOTcvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTMyMjAxNzMwNC0yLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F806297%2Fgettyimages-1322017304-2.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Precise figures may be more blurry, but the big picture tells the same story</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>精確數字可能更模糊，但大局講述的是同樣的故事</h2>
</div><p>The one area that I will concede looks a bit blurry right now is Nvidia's growth trajectory. I think DeepSeek's arrival is causing investors to consider the inconvenient (but likely) idea that Nvidia's growth could start decelerating at a meaningful pace someday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我承認，目前唯一看起來有些模糊的領域是英偉達的增長軌跡。我認為 DeepSeek 的出現使投資者開始考慮一個不太方便（但可能）的想法，即英偉達的增長可能在某一天會以顯著的速度開始減速。</p>
</div><p>While such concerns are legitimate, big tech still appears to be first in line at Nvidia's doorstep for now. Recent comments from Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg as well as comments from Microsoft's leadership both indicate that investment in AI infrastructure is going to continue for the foreseeable future.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>雖然這樣的擔憂是合理的，但目前大科技公司似乎仍然是英偉達門口的第一批客户。Meta 首席執行官馬克·扎克伯格以及微軟領導層的評論都表明，未來可預見的時間內對人工智能基礎設施的投資將繼續。</p>
</div><p>It's difficult to determine precisely how much of that spending will be designated for Nvidia, but I am highly confident that the leading chip manufacturer will remain central to the world's top AI businesses in the future.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>很難準確確定其中有多少支出將用於英偉達，但我非常有信心，作為領先的芯片製造商，英偉達將在未來繼續成為全球頂尖人工智能企業的核心。</p>
</div><h2>Is now a good time to buy Nvidia stock?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>現在是購買英偉達股票的好時機嗎？</h2>
</div><p>What's ironic is that even while Nvidia's largest customers have publicly stated that their capital expenditure (capex) budgets remain robust, shares are still selling off.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>諷刺的是，即使英偉達最大的客户公開表示他們的資本支出（capex）預算仍然強勁，股票仍然在下跌。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/73f57655b2d351cac229d650835cf983.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/73f57655b2d351cac229d650835cf983.png"/></p>
<p>NVDA data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>NVDA 數據來源於 YCharts。</p>
</div><p>In all honesty, I wouldn't be surprised if Nvidia stock continues experiencing drops until the company reports earnings on Feb. 26. By then, I think investors and analysts will have sufficient detail that could signal what AI spend is going to look like across both near- and long-term horizons.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>老實説，我不會感到驚訝，如果英偉達的股票在公司於 2 月 26 日報告財報之前繼續下跌。到那時，我認為投資者和分析師將擁有足夠的細節，能夠預測人工智能支出在短期和長期的情況。</p>
</div><p>My contrarian take is that during Nvidia's fourth-quarter call, the company's leadership will drive one point above all else: Demand for its chips -- including the latest and most expensive architectures -- remains strong and should continue that way for some time.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我的逆向觀點是，在英偉達的第四季度電話會議上，公司領導將強調一點：對其芯片的需求——包括最新和最昂貴的架構——依然強勁，並且在一段時間內應該會繼續如此。</p>
</div><p>As such, I wouldn't be surprised to see shares of Nvidia begin turning around in an epic fashion. For now, I see dips in Nvidia stock as incredible buying opportunities and think the stock will soar much higher from where it is today.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，我不會感到驚訝看到英偉達的股票開始以一種史詩般的方式反彈。就目前而言，我認為英偉達股票的下跌是絕佳的買入機會，並且認為該股票將從現在的水平大幅上漲。</p>
</div>

The "Dean of Valuation" Says Nvidia Stock Could Plunge by 31%. Here's My Contrarian Take on Why DeepSeek Could Fuel It to New Highs, Instead.

- Aswath Damodaran 預測 Nvidia 股價將下跌 37%。  
- DeepSeek 的出現可能影響 Nvidia 的市場地位。  
- 儘管存在擔憂，Nvidia 的需求仍然強勁。

“估值之王” 表示英偉達的股票可能會暴跌 31%。而我則持相反觀點，認為 DeepSeek 可能會推動其創下新高