<p>大宗採購、尋求折扣的消費者推動 <strong>開市客</strong>(COST -0.57%) 在 2024 年創下銷售和盈利的歷史新高。這家折扣零售商受益於堅韌的經濟背景，同時利用持續擴展的電子商務。其最新更新強調了 2025 年開局的進一步增長勢頭。</p>
<p>在過去一年中，股價上漲了 47%，目前交易於歷史最高點，這波上漲能否持續？讓我們討論一下如何處理開市客的股票。</p>
<h2>購買或持有開市客股票的理由</h2>
<p>開市客在全球擁有 1.39 億持卡會員，其會員制商店概念依然極受歡迎。忠實的客户羣體被各種商品的低價所吸引，從日常必需品到珠寶、電子產品和傢俱。獨家優惠的獲取，包括折扣汽油、旅行服務和店內藥房，使得對許多人來説，年度會員費顯得毫無疑問。</p>
<p>開市客吸引新會員並保持他們在其零售生態系統內的能力，突顯了其運營模式的強大以及作為潛在投資的股票吸引力。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDY3NDcvY29zdGNvLXN0b2NrLWJ1bGxpc2gtb3V0bG9vay0yMDI1LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDY3NDcvY29zdGNvLXN0b2NrLWJ1bGxpc2gtb3V0bG9vay0yMDI1LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<p>最近的趨勢令人印象深刻。開市客最近報告了其 1 月份的業績（截至 2 月 2 日），淨銷售額同比增長 9.2%，在排除汽油價格和外匯變動影響的情況下，公司總可比門店銷售額在該月增長了 9.8%。</p>
<p>也許更大的故事是開市客在發展其電子商務業務方面的成功，相關部門的可比銷售額比去年同月高出 13.6%。這一動態非常重要，因為它代表了新的增長動力，使開市客能夠利用其廣泛的物流基礎設施，結合更為多樣化的商品組合，在線接觸更廣泛的消費者市場。</p>
<p>根據華爾街的估計，開市客有望在今年和 2026 年實現 7% 的穩健收入增長。增長的動力包括去年宣佈的美國和加拿大會員價格上漲，提升了收入和盈利率，因為計劃以適度更高的費率續費。開市客計劃在 2025 財年的剩餘時間內開設 20 家新倉庫，以促進新會員的增長。每股收益（EPS）的預測更為強勁，預計在未來兩年內以約 10% 的年率增長。</p>
<p>相信開市客在國際擴展中能夠繼續保持穩定、盈利增長的投資者有充分理由購買該股票。</p>
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>指標</th>
<th>2025 年估計</th>
<th>2026 年估計</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>收入（十億美元）</td>
<td>$272.8</td>
<td>$291.9</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>收入增長（同比）</td>
<td>7.2%</td>
<td>7%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>每股收益（EPS）</td>
<td>$18.18</td>
<td>$19.98</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>EPS 增長（同比）</td>
<td>9.8%</td>
<td>9.9%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>數據來源：Yahoo Finance。同比 = year over year。</p>
<h2>賣出開市客股票的理由</h2>
<p>開市客有很多值得稱道的地方，所有跡象表明其前景依然強勁，基本面穩固。另一方面，市場對公司零售主導地位的明顯樂觀直接轉化為客觀上昂貴的估值。開市客的股票交易價格為 2025 年每股收益預期的 58 倍，遠高於 <strong>沃爾瑪</strong> 和 <strong>亞馬遜</strong>，後者的前瞻市盈率接近 37。</p>
<p>市場似乎正基於其會員制模型和一致的執行歷史，給予開市客一個盈利溢價。雖然這一指標本身並不意味着股票需要在短期內拋售，但擔憂在於，這可能至少限制了股價在已經高企的預期下的上漲空間。所有這一切都發生在面臨其他不確定性的環境中，開市客也受到更廣泛宏觀經濟條件的影響。儘管細節尚未確認，但特朗普政府提議的貿易關税可能會導致一些供應鏈中斷或通貨膨脹成本壓力，成為運營的逆風。</p>
<p>相信開市客在實現財務目標方面將面臨挑戰，並認為會員表現指標未來可能放緩的投資者，可能會考慮賣出或至少避免該股票。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/de0f0080ea9aeb423ea1e2241df76c69.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/de0f0080ea9aeb423ea1e2241df76c69.png"/></p>
<p>COST 市盈率（前瞻）數據來源於 YCharts</p>
<h2>決策時刻</h2>
<p>我認為開市客的股票今天價格過高，不值得堅定購買。雖然股東可能有足夠的強點繼續持有，但在場外的投資者可能會在股市的其他地方找到更具吸引力的機會。儘管如此，這是一隻值得關注的股票，以便在市場修正時可能提供以更低、更具吸引力的價格收購股票的機會。</p>

開市客

<p>開市客在 2024 年創下了銷售和盈利的紀錄，這得益於強勁的經濟和電子商務的增長。在過去一年中，股價上漲了 47%，分析師們對買入、賣出或持有的選擇展開了討論。開市客的會員模式和最近的銷售增長，包括 1 月份 9.2% 的增長，支持了樂觀的前景。然而，其 2025 年每股收益預估的 58 倍高估值引發了對股價增長潛在限制的擔憂。投資者被建議關注該股票以尋找未來的機會，特別是在可能面臨的宏觀經濟挑戰的背景下</p>

<p>Bulk-buying, bargain-hunting shoppers propelled <strong>Costco Wholesale</strong>(COST -0.57%) to a record-breaking 2024 for sales and earnings. The discount retailer is benefiting from a resilient economic backdrop while capitalizing on an ongoing e-commerce expansion. Its latest update highlighted further growth momentum to kick off 2025.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>大宗採購、尋求折扣的消費者推動 <strong>開市客</strong>(COST -0.57%) 在 2024 年創下銷售和盈利的歷史新高。這家折扣零售商受益於堅韌的經濟背景，同時利用持續擴展的電子商務。其最新更新強調了 2025 年開局的進一步增長勢頭。</p>
</div><p>With the stock up 47% over the past year and currently trading at an all-time high, can the rally keep going? Let's discuss what to do with shares of Costco Wholesale.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在過去一年中，股價上漲了 47%，目前交易於歷史最高點，這波上漲能否持續？讓我們討論一下如何處理開市客的股票。</p>
</div><h2>The case to buy or hold Costco stock</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>購買或持有開市客股票的理由</h2>
</div><p>With 139 million cardholders worldwide, Costco's members-only store concept remains massively popular. Its loyal customer base is attracted to low prices on a variety of items, from everyday essentials to jewelry, electronics, and furniture. Access to exclusive deals, including discounted gasoline, travel services, and an in-store pharmacy, means that for many people, the annual membership fee is a no-brainer.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>開市客在全球擁有 1.39 億持卡會員，其會員制商店概念依然極受歡迎。忠實的客户羣體被各種商品的低價所吸引，從日常必需品到珠寶、電子產品和傢俱。獨家優惠的獲取，包括折扣汽油、旅行服務和店內藥房，使得對許多人來説，年度會員費顯得毫無疑問。</p>
</div><p>Costco's ability to pull in new members and keep them within its retail ecosystem highlights the power of its operating model and the attraction of the stock as a possible investment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>開市客吸引新會員並保持他們在其零售生態系統內的能力，突顯了其運營模式的強大以及作為潛在投資的股票吸引力。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDY3NDcvY29zdGNvLXN0b2NrLWJ1bGxpc2gtb3V0bG9vay0yMDI1LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F806747%2Fcostco-stock-bullish-outlook-2025.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><p>The recent trends have been impressive. Costco recently reported its January results (for the period ended Feb. 2), with net sales up 9.2% year over year and total company comparable store sales increasing by 9.8% during the month, excluding the impact of changes in gasoline prices and foreign exchange.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最近的趨勢令人印象深刻。開市客最近報告了其 1 月份的業績（截至 2 月 2 日），淨銷售額同比增長 9.2%，在排除汽油價格和外匯變動影響的情況下，公司總可比門店銷售額在該月增長了 9.8%。</p>
</div><p>Perhaps the bigger story has been Costco's success at building out its e-commerce business, with segment comparable sales 13.6% higher than the same month last year. This dynamic is important as it represents a new growth driver, allowing Costco to leverage its extensive logistics infrastructure with a more diversified merchandise mix to reach a wider consumer market online.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>也許更大的故事是開市客在發展其電子商務業務方面的成功，相關部門的可比銷售額比去年同月高出 13.6%。這一動態非常重要，因為它代表了新的增長動力，使開市客能夠利用其廣泛的物流基礎設施，結合更為多樣化的商品組合，在線接觸更廣泛的消費者市場。</p>
</div><p>According to Wall Street estimates, Costco is on track to generate a solid 7% revenue increase this year and in 2026. The runway includes the hike to the U.S. and Canada membership pricing announced last year, lifting the top line and profitability margins as the plans renew at a modestly higher rate. Costco intends to open 20 new warehouses in the remainder of fiscal 2025 as a tailwind for new memberships. The forecast for earnings per share (EPS) is even stronger, climbing at around a 10% annual rate for the next two years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根據華爾街的估計，開市客有望在今年和 2026 年實現 7% 的穩健收入增長。增長的動力包括去年宣佈的美國和加拿大會員價格上漲，提升了收入和盈利率，因為計劃以適度更高的費率續費。開市客計劃在 2025 財年的剩餘時間內開設 20 家新倉庫，以促進新會員的增長。每股收益（EPS）的預測更為強勁，預計在未來兩年內以約 10% 的年率增長。</p>
</div><p>Investors convinced that Costco is well-positioned to continue its path of steady, profitable growth as it expands internationally have plenty of reasons to buy the stock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>相信開市客在國際擴展中能夠繼續保持穩定、盈利增長的投資者有充分理由購買該股票。</p>
</div><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Metric</th>
<th>2025 Estimate</th>
<th>2026 Estimate</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Revenue (in billions)</td>
<td>$272.8</td>
<td>$291.9</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Revenue growth (YOY)</td>
<td>7.2%</td>
<td>7%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Earnings per share (EPS)</td>
<td>$18.18</td>
<td>$19.98</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>EPS growth (YOY)</td>
<td>9.8%</td>
<td>9.9%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<div class="lb-trans"><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>指標</th>
<th>2025 年估計</th>
<th>2026 年估計</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>收入（十億美元）</td>
<td>$272.8</td>
<td>$291.9</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>收入增長（同比）</td>
<td>7.2%</td>
<td>7%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>每股收益（EPS）</td>
<td>$18.18</td>
<td>$19.98</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>EPS 增長（同比）</td>
<td>9.8%</td>
<td>9.9%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div><p>Data source: Yahoo Finance. YOY = year over year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>數據來源：Yahoo Finance。同比 = year over year。</p>
</div><h2>The case to sell Costco stock</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>賣出開市客股票的理由</h2>
</div><p>There's a lot to like about Costco, with all indications that its outlook is as strong as ever, supported by solid fundamentals. On the other hand, the apparent optimism toward the company's retail dominance has translated directly into an objectively expensive valuation. Shares of Costco are trading at 58 times its consensus 2025 EPS estimate, a level well above peers like <strong>Walmart</strong> and <strong>Amazon</strong>, each with a forward P/E ratio closer to 37.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>開市客有很多值得稱道的地方，所有跡象表明其前景依然強勁，基本面穩固。另一方面，市場對公司零售主導地位的明顯樂觀直接轉化為客觀上昂貴的估值。開市客的股票交易價格為 2025 年每股收益預期的 58 倍，遠高於 <strong>沃爾瑪</strong> 和 <strong>亞馬遜</strong>，後者的前瞻市盈率接近 37。</p>
</div><p>The market appears to be assigning Costco an earnings premium based precisely on its membership-based model and consistent execution history. While this metric alone doesn't mean the stock needs to sell off anytime soon, the concern is that it could at least limit the upside in the share price against already high expectations. All this is in an environment that faces other uncertainties with Costco being exposed to broader macroeconomic conditions. While details have not been confirmed, proposed trade tariffs by the Trump administration have the potential to generate some supply chain disruptions or inflationary cost pressures as an operating headwind.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市場似乎正基於其會員制模型和一致的執行歷史，給予開市客一個盈利溢價。雖然這一指標本身並不意味着股票需要在短期內拋售，但擔憂在於，這可能至少限制了股價在已經高企的預期下的上漲空間。所有這一切都發生在面臨其他不確定性的環境中，開市客也受到更廣泛宏觀經濟條件的影響。儘管細節尚未確認，但特朗普政府提議的貿易關税可能會導致一些供應鏈中斷或通貨膨脹成本壓力，成為運營的逆風。</p>
</div><p>Investors who believe Costco will be challenged to achieve its financial targets and see room for membership performance metrics to slow going forward could consider selling or at least avoiding the stock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>相信開市客在實現財務目標方面將面臨挑戰，並認為會員表現指標未來可能放緩的投資者，可能會考慮賣出或至少避免該股票。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/de0f0080ea9aeb423ea1e2241df76c69.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/de0f0080ea9aeb423ea1e2241df76c69.png"/></p>
<p>COST PE Ratio (Forward) data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>COST 市盈率（前瞻）數據來源於 YCharts</p>
</div><h2>Decision time</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>決策時刻</h2>
</div><p>I believe shares of Costco are just too pricey to buy today with conviction. There are likely enough strong points for shareholders to continue holding, but investors sitting on the sidelines may find more compelling opportunities elsewhere in the stock market. Nevertheless, this is one stock to keep on your radar for the possibility of a market correction that might offer a chance to acquire shares at a lower and more attractive price.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我認為開市客的股票今天價格過高，不值得堅定購買。雖然股東可能有足夠的強點繼續持有，但在場外的投資者可能會在股市的其他地方找到更具吸引力的機會。儘管如此，這是一隻值得關注的股票，以便在市場修正時可能提供以更低、更具吸引力的價格收購股票的機會。</p>
</div>

開市客的股票在 2025 年是應該買入、賣出還是持有？