<p>過去是否提供了關於未來的線索？有時是的。</p>
<p>這對任何考慮投資於 <strong>Nvidia</strong>(NVDA 2.87%) 的人來説可能是個好消息。歷史表明，現在可能是大量購買 Nvidia 股票的理想時機。</p>
<h2>低迷但未失去希望</h2>
<p>人工智能（AI），尤其是生成性 AI 的崛起，近年來為 Nvidia 提供了巨大的助力。自 2020 年初以來，該股票的回報率接近 21 倍，並且在過去 12 個月中上漲了超過 80%。</p>
<p>然而，Nvidia 的股價在過去幾周內下跌。中國公司 DeepSeek 推出低成本 AI 模型引發投資者擔憂，Nvidia 的 GPU 需求可能會減弱。DeepSeek 聲稱使用舊款 Nvidia 芯片開發了其 R1 推理模型，該模型與現有最佳 AI 模型相比表現良好。</p>
<p>但每當 Nvidia 股票在過去下跌 10% 或更多時，這通常是一個絕佳的買入機會。這種下跌的情況發生的頻率比你想象的要高。自 2015 年以來，Nvidia 的股價至少每年從之前的高點下跌過一次雙位數百分比，只有一次例外。每次股價下跌後，該股票都反彈並最終達到新高。</p>
<h2>盈利預期</h2>
<p>這種反彈效應並不是歷史支持現在投資 Nvidia 的唯一方式。另一個值得考慮的模式是該股票在公司季度財報更新後的表現。</p>
<p>自 OpenAI 在 2022 年底推出 ChatGPT 以來，盈利預期因素的研究尤為重要。下圖顯示了 Nvidia 在 2023 年 2 月季度業績公告後幾周的股票表現。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/b263f5e4a6bc1fe26e1ee79786428ba3.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/b263f5e4a6bc1fe26e1ee79786428ba3.png"/></p>
<p>NVDA 數據來源於 YCharts</p>
<p>以下是 Nvidia 在下一個季度財報更新後的表現：</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/3f93214d2ec5d254aeb696af4bbea7ab.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/3f93214d2ec5d254aeb696af4bbea7ab.png"/></p>
<p>NVDA 數據來源於 YCharts</p>
<p>這種趨勢是否持續？在大多數情況下，是的。當然，也有一些例外。然而，Nvidia 在超越華爾街盈利預期方面有着良好的記錄。</p>
<p>這很重要，因為 Nvidia 計劃在 2025 年 2 月 26 日的幾周內宣佈其 2025 財年的第四季度業績。重要的是，這將是公司首次報告其強大新款 Blackwell 芯片的收入。分析師預計 Nvidia 的第四季度盈利將同比增長 63%。但隨着 Nvidia 首席執行官黃仁勳表示對 Blackwell 的需求 “瘋狂”，華爾街的預估可能過於悲觀。</p>
<h2>歷史並不總是重演</h2>
<p>當然，歷史並不總是重演。僅僅因為 Nvidia 的股價在過去的雙位數百分比下跌後總是上漲，並不意味着這次也會如此。公司的超越盈利預期的記錄可能不會持續。</p>
<p>重要的是，Nvidia 在近期並未面臨 DeepSeek 現在所帶來的威脅。Nvidia 的高估值（其股票交易在過去 12 個月銷售額的 28.5 倍）反映了對巨大增長的預期。任何阻礙這種增長的因素幾乎肯定會導致股價下跌。許多投資者擔心 DeepSeek 的 AI 技術可能會對 Nvidia 的增長產生負面影響。</p>
<p>被稱為 “估值之父” 的紐約大學金融教授 Aswath Damodaran 就是其中一位投資者。他最近寫道：“DeepSeek 突然進入 AI 領域有可能改變 AI 敍事，隨着這一變化，也可能改變過去兩年受益於 AI 炒作的許多公司的故事。” 他將 Nvidia 列在了受益於 “AI 炒作” 的公司名單的首位。</p>
<p>然而，Nvidia 的幾家主要客户在過去幾周內提供了季度更新。他們都計劃大幅增加資本投資，特別是為了提升訓練和部署 AI 模型的能力。這對任何同意 “歷史並不重演，但常常押韻” 這一説法的人來説都是個令人鼓舞的消息。</p>

英偉達

<p>本文討論了投資英偉達股票的潛力，指出歷史趨勢表明現在可能是購買的理想時機。儘管由於 DeepSeek 的競爭，近期股價有所下跌，但過去的模式顯示，英偉達的股票在類似下跌後通常會反彈。即將發佈的財報預計將顯示顯著增長，但對競爭和高估值的擔憂仍然存在。總體而言，儘管歷史表明這是一個購買機會，但由於當前市場動態，建議保持謹慎</p>

<p>Does the past provide clues about what the future holds? Sometimes it does.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>過去是否提供了關於未來的線索？有時是的。</p>
</div><p>This could be great news for anyone considering investing in <strong>Nvidia</strong>(NVDA 2.87%). History says now could be an ideal time to buy Nvidia stock hand over fist.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這對任何考慮投資於 <strong>Nvidia</strong>(NVDA 2.87%) 的人來説可能是個好消息。歷史表明，現在可能是大量購買 Nvidia 股票的理想時機。</p>
</div><h2>Down but not out</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>低迷但未失去希望</h2>
</div><p>Artificial intelligence (AI), especially the rise of generative AI, has provided a massive tailwind for Nvidia in recent years. The stock has delivered a return of nearly 21x since early 2020 and is up more than 80% during the last 12 months.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>人工智能（AI），尤其是生成性 AI 的崛起，近年來為 Nvidia 提供了巨大的助力。自 2020 年初以來，該股票的回報率接近 21 倍，並且在過去 12 個月中上漲了超過 80%。</p>
</div><p>However, Nvidia's share price has fallen over the last few weeks. Chinese company DeepSeek's launch of a low-cost AI model caused investors to worry that the surging demand for Nvidia's GPUs could wane. DeepSeek claimed to develop its R1 reasoning model, which stacks up well against the best AI models available, using older Nvidia chips.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，Nvidia 的股價在過去幾周內下跌。中國公司 DeepSeek 推出低成本 AI 模型引發投資者擔憂，Nvidia 的 GPU 需求可能會減弱。DeepSeek 聲稱使用舊款 Nvidia 芯片開發了其 R1 推理模型，該模型與現有最佳 AI 模型相比表現良好。</p>
</div><p>But anytime Nvidia stock has dropped 10% or more in the past, it presented a fantastic buying opportunity. Such declines have happened more often than you might think. Nvidia's share price has sunk by a double-digit percentage from its previous peak at least once every year since 2015 with one exception. The stock bounced back and eventually reached a new high each time.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但每當 Nvidia 股票在過去下跌 10% 或更多時，這通常是一個絕佳的買入機會。這種下跌的情況發生的頻率比你想象的要高。自 2015 年以來，Nvidia 的股價至少每年從之前的高點下跌過一次雙位數百分比，只有一次例外。每次股價下跌後，該股票都反彈並最終達到新高。</p>
</div><h2>Earnings anticipation</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>盈利預期</h2>
</div><p>This rebound effect isn't the only way history supports the premise that now is an ideal time to invest in Nvidia. Another pattern to consider is how the stock has performed after the company's quarterly earnings updates.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這種反彈效應並不是歷史支持現在投資 Nvidia 的唯一方式。另一個值得考慮的模式是該股票在公司季度財報更新後的表現。</p>
</div><p>It's most instructive to examine this earnings anticipation factor since OpenAI's launch of ChatGPT kicked off the generative AI boom in late 2022. The chart below shows Nvidia's stock performance in the weeks following the announcement of its quarterly results in February 2023.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自 OpenAI 在 2022 年底推出 ChatGPT 以來，盈利預期因素的研究尤為重要。下圖顯示了 Nvidia 在 2023 年 2 月季度業績公告後幾周的股票表現。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/b263f5e4a6bc1fe26e1ee79786428ba3.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/b263f5e4a6bc1fe26e1ee79786428ba3.png"/></p>
<p>NVDA data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>NVDA 數據來源於 YCharts</p>
</div><p>Here's how Nvidia stock performed after the next quarterly earnings update:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>以下是 Nvidia 在下一個季度財報更新後的表現：</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/3f93214d2ec5d254aeb696af4bbea7ab.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/3f93214d2ec5d254aeb696af4bbea7ab.png"/></p>
<p>NVDA data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>NVDA 數據來源於 YCharts</p>
</div><p>Did this trend continue? For the most part, yes. Sure, there were some exceptions. However, Nvidia has a great track record of beating Wall Street's earnings expectations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這種趨勢是否持續？在大多數情況下，是的。當然，也有一些例外。然而，Nvidia 在超越華爾街盈利預期方面有着良好的記錄。</p>
</div><p>This matters because Nvidia is scheduled to announce its fiscal year 2025 fourth-quarter results just a few weeks from now on Feb. 26, 2025. Importantly, this will be the company's first quarter to report revenue from its powerful new Blackwell chips. Analysts project that Nvidia's Q4 earnings will jump 63% year over year. But with Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang indicating that the demand for Blackwell is &#34;insane,&#34; Wall Street's estimates could be too pessimistic.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這很重要，因為 Nvidia 計劃在 2025 年 2 月 26 日的幾周內宣佈其 2025 財年的第四季度業績。重要的是，這將是公司首次報告其強大新款 Blackwell 芯片的收入。分析師預計 Nvidia 的第四季度盈利將同比增長 63%。但隨着 Nvidia 首席執行官黃仁勳表示對 Blackwell 的需求 “瘋狂”，華爾街的預估可能過於悲觀。</p>
</div><h2>History doesn't always repeat itself</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>歷史並不總是重演</h2>
</div><p>To be sure, history doesn't always repeat itself. Just because Nvidia's share price has always risen after double-digit percentage declines in the past doesn't mean it will do so this time. The company's track record of beating earnings estimates might not continue.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>當然，歷史並不總是重演。僅僅因為 Nvidia 的股價在過去的雙位數百分比下跌後總是上漲，並不意味着這次也會如此。公司的超越盈利預期的記錄可能不會持續。</p>
</div><p>Importantly, Nvidia hasn't faced the threat in its recent past that DeepSeek presents now. Nvidia's sky-high valuation (its shares trade at 28.5 times trailing 12-month sales) reflects expectations of tremendous growth. Anything that derails that growth would almost certainly cause the stock to tumble. And many investors are concerned that DeepSeek's AI technology could negatively impact Nvidia's growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>重要的是，Nvidia 在近期並未面臨 DeepSeek 現在所帶來的威脅。Nvidia 的高估值（其股票交易在過去 12 個月銷售額的 28.5 倍）反映了對巨大增長的預期。任何阻礙這種增長的因素幾乎肯定會導致股價下跌。許多投資者擔心 DeepSeek 的 AI 技術可能會對 Nvidia 的增長產生負面影響。</p>
</div><p>Aswath Damodaran, the NYU finance professor known as the &#34;Dean of Valuation,&#34; is one of those investors. He recently wrote, &#34;DeepSeek's abrupt entry into the AI conversation has the potential to change the AI narrative, and as it does, it may also change the storylines for the many companies that have spent the last two years benefiting from the AI hype.&#34; He put Nvidia at the top of the list of those companies that have been helped by &#34;the AI hype.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>被稱為 “估值之父” 的紐約大學金融教授 Aswath Damodaran 就是其中一位投資者。他最近寫道：“DeepSeek 突然進入 AI 領域有可能改變 AI 敍事，隨着這一變化，也可能改變過去兩年受益於 AI 炒作的許多公司的故事。” 他將 Nvidia 列在了受益於 “AI 炒作” 的公司名單的首位。</p>
</div><p>However, several of Nvidia's largest customers provided quarterly updates over the last few weeks. All of them plan to significantly increase their capital investments and are specifically doing so to boost their capacity to train and deploy AI models. That's encouraging news for anyone who agrees with the adage that &#34;history doesn't repeat itself but it often rhymes.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，Nvidia 的幾家主要客户在過去幾周內提供了季度更新。他們都計劃大幅增加資本投資，特別是為了提升訓練和部署 AI 模型的能力。這對任何同意 “歷史並不重演，但常常押韻” 這一説法的人來説都是個令人鼓舞的消息。</p>
</div>

History Says Now Could Be an Ideal Time to Buy Nvidia Stock Hand Over Fist

- Nvidia 股票歷史表現顯示，當前可能是投資的理想時機。  
- 儘管股價近期下跌，但過去的下跌通常帶來買入機會。  
- 分析師預計 Nvidia 第四季度收益將同比增長 63%。

歷史表明，現在可能是大量買入英偉達股票的最佳時機