<p>過去幾周資本市場相當動盪。1 月底，一家名為 DeepSeek 的中國初創公司聲稱其開發的強大人工智能（AI）應用的成本遠低於美國企業的支出，這讓投資者感到恐慌。因此，科技股開始急劇下跌。</p>
<p>受到 DeepSeek 敍事影響最嚴重的公司之一是 <strong>Nvidia</strong>（NVDA 2.87%）。該公司定於 2 月 26 日公佈 2024 財年第四季度和全年財報，投資者焦急地等待 DeepSeek 可能對 Nvidia 業務產生的影響。</p>
<p>接下來，我將解釋為什麼投資者可能不需要等到本月晚些時候就能評估 Nvidia 股票在財報發佈前是否值得購買。</p>
<h2>大型科技公司剛剛壓制了 DeepSeek 的恐慌</h2>
<p>在過去兩週圍繞 Nvidia 的熊市敍事是，如果 DeepSeek 的説法屬實，企業可能會縮減其 AI 基礎設施支出。如果發生這種情況，對 Nvidia 昂貴的數據中心圖形處理單元（GPU）的需求可能會放緩，從而質疑該公司的未來前景。</p>
<p>值得慶幸的是，Nvidia 的&#34;七大巨頭&#34;已經公佈了財報。這些巨頭之間的一個共同點是，AI 基礎設施支出正在上升。<strong>微軟</strong>、<strong>Meta Platforms</strong>、<strong>Alphabet</strong> 和 <strong>亞馬遜</strong> 管理層的評論表明，如果他們都在提供的範圍高端支出，今年的資本支出（capex）預算可能超過 3000 億美元。</p>
<p>理解這一重要數字至關重要，因為這些公司已經在使用 Nvidia 的產品。雖然我承認這些公司也在投資自己的定製芯片，但他們不太可能很快完全擺脱 Nvidia。因此，我認為 AI 基礎設施支出的上升對 Nvidia 來説是一個積極的信號，突顯了該公司強勁的增長前景。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDY5NjQvZGVzay1jYWxlbmRhci1mbGlwcGluZy10aHJvdWdoLXBhZ2VzLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDY5NjQvZGVzay1jYWxlbmRhci1mbGlwcGluZy10aHJvdWdoLXBhZ2VzLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>Nvidia 股票在財報發佈後通常表現如何？</h2>
<p>下圖顯示了過去三年 Nvidia 股票價格的走勢。我在紫色圓圈中標註了公司的財報發佈時間，字母&#34;E&#34;在中間。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/1cf9d624e0f4798c1bcc59168a28fdc0.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/1cf9d624e0f4798c1bcc59168a28fdc0.png"/></p>
<p>NVDA 數據來源於 YCharts</p>
<p>從上述趨勢中可以清楚地看出：Nvidia 的股票通常在財報發佈後上漲。雖然在財報發佈前後幾天可能會出現更明顯的波動，但 Nvidia 的韌性似乎總能在最後顯現出來。</p>
<h2>你應該在 2 月 26 日之前購買 Nvidia 股票嗎？</h2>
<p>如果你僅僅根據歷史數據，股票圖表中顯示的趨勢表明 Nvidia 股票在 2 月 26 日發佈財報後將會上漲。但聰明的投資者都知道，過去的表現不應作為唯一的衡量標準。</p>
<p>對我來説，這裏探討的更重要的觀點是，Nvidia 最大的客户都表示他們仍然致力於 AI 增長路線圖。而支持這些 AI 雄心的一個微妙支柱是顯著的資本支出。理論上，這對 Nvidia 的未來非常有利。</p>
<p>雖然我並不鼓勵精確的時機把握，但我認為這是一個獨特的情況，不值得再等幾周，只為聽 Nvidia 管理層對 DeepSeek 的看法。大型科技公司所透露的信息應該能很好地作為 Nvidia 投資者對增長預期的參考。</p>
<p>因此，我會在 Nvidia 的股票下跌時買入——在本月晚些時候公司發佈財報之前。當前的拋售代表了一個不尋常的窗口，Nvidia 的股票以異常低的估值交易，我認為這是值得利用的機會。</p>

英偉達

<p>英偉達的股票受到了一家中國初創公司 DeepSeek 的擔憂影響，該公司聲稱提供更低成本的人工智能應用。然而，微軟和亞馬遜等主要科技公司正在增加其人工智能基礎設施的支出，這對英偉達來説是個好兆頭。歷史上，英偉達的股票在財報發佈後往往會上漲，考慮到即將於 2 月 26 日發佈的財報，分析師建議現在買入該股票，因為其被低估。整體情緒是積極的，儘管近期市場動盪，但這表明英偉達未來的增長前景強勁</p>

<p>The past couple of weeks have been quite turbulent in the capital markets. In late January, a Chinese start-up called DeepSeek sent investors into a panic as the company claimed to have built powerful artificial intelligence (AI) applications for much less than what businesses in the U.S. are spending. As a result, technology stocks have been spiraling downward.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>過去幾周資本市場相當動盪。1 月底，一家名為 DeepSeek 的中國初創公司聲稱其開發的強大人工智能（AI）應用的成本遠低於美國企業的支出，這讓投資者感到恐慌。因此，科技股開始急劇下跌。</p>
</div><p>One company that has been hit hard over the DeepSeek narrative is <strong>Nvidia</strong>(NVDA 2.87%). With the company scheduled to report fourth-quarter and full-year 2024 earnings on Feb. 26, investors are anxiously waiting to see just how much DeepSeek may affect Nvidia's business.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>受到 DeepSeek 敍事影響最嚴重的公司之一是 <strong>Nvidia</strong>（NVDA 2.87%）。該公司定於 2 月 26 日公佈 2024 財年第四季度和全年財報，投資者焦急地等待 DeepSeek 可能對 Nvidia 業務產生的影響。</p>
</div><p>Below, I'm going to explain why investors may not need to wait until later this month to assess if Nvidia stock is a good buy heading into earnings.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>接下來，我將解釋為什麼投資者可能不需要等到本月晚些時候就能評估 Nvidia 股票在財報發佈前是否值得購買。</p>
</div><h2>Big tech just squashed the DeepSeek fears</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>大型科技公司剛剛壓制了 DeepSeek 的恐慌</h2>
</div><p>The bear narrative surrounding Nvidia during the past two weeks is that if DeepSeek's claims are true, businesses may scale back their AI infrastructure spending. If this were to happen, demand for Nvidia's expensive data center graphics processing units (GPU) would likely slow -- thereby calling into question what the company's future prospects look like.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在過去兩週圍繞 Nvidia 的熊市敍事是，如果 DeepSeek 的説法屬實，企業可能會縮減其 AI 基礎設施支出。如果發生這種情況，對 Nvidia 昂貴的數據中心圖形處理單元（GPU）的需求可能會放緩，從而質疑該公司的未來前景。</p>
</div><p>Thankfully, Nvidia's &#34;Magnificent Seven&#34; cohorts have already reported earnings. And one common thread stitching each of these behemoths together is that spending on AI infrastructure is on the rise. Comments made by management from <strong>Microsoft</strong>, <strong>Meta Platforms</strong>, <strong>Alphabet</strong>, and <strong>Amazon</strong> have signaled that capital expenditure (capex) budgets for this year could be in excess of $300 billion if they all spend at the high end of their provided ranges.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>值得慶幸的是，Nvidia 的&#34;七大巨頭&#34;已經公佈了財報。這些巨頭之間的一個共同點是，AI 基礎設施支出正在上升。<strong>微軟</strong>、<strong>Meta Platforms</strong>、<strong>Alphabet</strong> 和 <strong>亞馬遜</strong> 管理層的評論表明，如果他們都在提供的範圍高端支出，今年的資本支出（capex）預算可能超過 3000 億美元。</p>
</div><p>This is an important figure to understand, as each of these companies already uses Nvidia products. And while I'll admit that these companies are also investing in their own custom chipware, it's unlikely that they will migrate entirely away from Nvidia anytime soon. For this reason, I see the rising AI infrastructure spending as a positive sign for Nvidia -- and one that underscores the company's robust growth prospects.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>理解這一重要數字至關重要，因為這些公司已經在使用 Nvidia 的產品。雖然我承認這些公司也在投資自己的定製芯片，但他們不太可能很快完全擺脱 Nvidia。因此，我認為 AI 基礎設施支出的上升對 Nvidia 來説是一個積極的信號，突顯了該公司強勁的增長前景。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDY5NjQvZGVzay1jYWxlbmRhci1mbGlwcGluZy10aHJvdWdoLXBhZ2VzLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F806964%2Fdesk-calendar-flipping-through-pages.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>How does Nvidia stock typically perform after an earnings report?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Nvidia 股票在財報發佈後通常表現如何？</h2>
</div><p>The chart below shows Nvidia's stock price movement during the past three years. I've annotated the company's earnings reports as seen in the purple circles with the letter &#34;E&#34; in the middle.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>下圖顯示了過去三年 Nvidia 股票價格的走勢。我在紫色圓圈中標註了公司的財報發佈時間，字母&#34;E&#34;在中間。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/1cf9d624e0f4798c1bcc59168a28fdc0.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/1cf9d624e0f4798c1bcc59168a28fdc0.png"/></p>
<p>NVDA data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>NVDA 數據來源於 YCharts</p>
</div><p>One thing is abundantly clear from the trends illustrated above: Nvidia shares usually rise after an earnings report. While the days leading up to or shortly after an earnings call may carry some more pronounced volatility, Nvidia's resilience always seems to shine through in the end.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>從上述趨勢中可以清楚地看出：Nvidia 的股票通常在財報發佈後上漲。雖然在財報發佈前後幾天可能會出現更明顯的波動，但 Nvidia 的韌性似乎總能在最後顯現出來。</p>
</div><h2>Should you buy Nvidia stock before Feb. 26?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>你應該在 2 月 26 日之前購買 Nvidia 股票嗎？</h2>
</div><p>If you're going purely based on history, the trends seen in the stock chart above would suggest that Nvidia stock will be headed higher after it reports earnings on Feb. 26. But smart investors know all too well that past performance shouldn't be used as your sole barometer.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果你僅僅根據歷史數據，股票圖表中顯示的趨勢表明 Nvidia 股票在 2 月 26 日發佈財報後將會上漲。但聰明的投資者都知道，過去的表現不應作為唯一的衡量標準。</p>
</div><p>To me, the more important idea explored here is that Nvidia's largest customers have all come out and said that they remain committed to their AI growth roadmaps. And a subtle pillar supporting these AI ambitions is significant spending on capex. In theory, this bodes very well for Nvidia's future.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>對我來説，這裏探討的更重要的觀點是，Nvidia 最大的客户都表示他們仍然致力於 AI 增長路線圖。而支持這些 AI 雄心的一個微妙支柱是顯著的資本支出。理論上，這對 Nvidia 的未來非常有利。</p>
</div><p>While exact timing isn't something I really encourage, I think this is a unique situation in which it's not worth waiting a few more weeks just to hear what Nvidia's management has to say about DeepSeek. The breadcrumbs dropped by big tech should serve as a good proxy for what Nvidia investors can expect in terms of growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>雖然我並不鼓勵精確的時機把握，但我認為這是一個獨特的情況，不值得再等幾周，只為聽 Nvidia 管理層對 DeepSeek 的看法。大型科技公司所透露的信息應該能很好地作為 Nvidia 投資者對增長預期的參考。</p>
</div><p>For this reason, I'd buy the dip in Nvidia now -- before the company's earnings report later this month. The current sell-off represents an unusual window during which Nvidia stock is trading at an abnormally low valuation, which I think is worth taking advantage of.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，我會在 Nvidia 的股票下跌時買入——在本月晚些時候公司發佈財報之前。當前的拋售代表了一個不尋常的窗口，Nvidia 的股票以異常低的估值交易，我認為這是值得利用的機會。</p>
</div>

Should You Buy Nvidia Stock Before Feb. 26? History Has a Clear Answer.

- 最近資本市場動盪，DeepSeek 的 AI 應用引發投資者恐慌。  
- Nvidia 面臨需求放緩風險，但大科技公司仍在增加 AI 基礎設施支出。  
- 歷史數據顯示，Nvidia 股價在財報後通常上漲，建議在財報前買入。

你應該在 2 月 26 日之前購買英偉達股票嗎？歷史給出了明確的答案