<p>樂觀者在過去兩年多的時間裏有充分的理由微笑。自從 <strong>道瓊斯工業平均指數</strong>、<strong>標準普爾 500 指數</strong> 和 <strong>納斯達克綜合指數</strong> 在 2022 年 10 月觸底以來，華爾街的牛市一直牢牢掌控着局面。最近，這三個指數都達到了創紀錄的收盤高點。</p>
<p>儘管催化因素眾多，包括唐納德·特朗普重返白宮、股票拆分的狂熱以及超出預期的企業盈利，但推動華爾街前進的主要動力是人工智能（AI）的崛起。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDcwOTgvYXJ0aWZpY2lhbC1pbnRlbGxpZ2VuY2UtYWktZmFjZS1jbG91ZC1jb25uZWN0aW9uLWdldHR5LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDcwOTgvYXJ0aWZpY2lhbC1pbnRlbGxpZ2VuY2UtYWktZmFjZS1jbG91ZC1jb25uZWN0aW9uLWdldHR5LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<p>與人工智能相關的天花板高得驚人。賦予軟件和系統推理、行動和隨時間演變的能力，完全不需要人類干預，這對全球大多數行業來説都是潛在的長期遊戲規則改變者。這就是為什麼普華永道的分析師認為，到 2030 年，人工智能將為全球經濟增加 15.7 萬億美元。</p>
<p>雖然在人工智能革命中有數十個直接和間接受益者，但沒有哪家公司比 <strong>英偉達</strong>（Nvidia）更能代表這一運動。</p>
<h2>英偉達理所當然地聲稱自己是人工智能的核心</h2>
<p>當 2022 年落幕時，英偉達是一家市值 3600 億美元的科技股，以其用於 PC 遊戲和加密貨幣挖礦的圖形處理單元（GPU）而聞名。不到兩年後，其市值增加了超過 3 萬億美元，並（短暫地）成為華爾街最大的上市公司。</p>
<p>英偉達的崛起與其 Hopper（H100）GPU 和下一代 Blackwell GPU 架構密切相關，這些技術使得大型語言模型（LLM）的訓練成為可能，並推動了生成式人工智能解決方案的發展。該公司的硬件訂單積壓，首席執行官黃仁勳在 10 月時形容對 Blackwell 的需求為 “瘋狂”。</p>
<p>在計算速度方面擁有優越的產品，並且對該產品的需求超出供應，這是一個令人羨慕的地位。人工智能 GPU 的稀缺性使得英偉達能夠對競爭對手的人工智能芯片收取 100% 到 300% 的溢價，這反過來又將其毛利率推向了天文數字。</p>
<p>英偉達在其人工智能硬件之外也取得了成功。該公司的 CUDA 軟件平台被開發者用於構建 LLM 並最大化其 GPU 的計算潛力，幫助客户保持對其產品和服務生態系統的忠誠。</p>
<p>隨着企業人工智能支出仍處於起步階段，且沒有其他芯片製造商能夠接近 Hopper 或下一代 Blackwell GPU 的計算潛力，英偉達似乎在未來的競爭中處於理想位置。</p>
<p>但如果投資者密切關注英偉達內部人士的動向，他們可能會改變看法。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDcwOTgvaW52ZXN0b3ItcHJlc3Npbmctc2VsbC1idXR0b24tZ2V0dHkuanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDcwOTgvaW52ZXN0b3ItcHJlc3Npbmctc2VsbC1idXR0b24tZ2V0dHkuanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>英偉達的內部人士發出了重要信號——但有人在傾聽嗎？</h2>
<p>在華爾街投資的一個最佳方面是，它比以往任何時候都更加透明。只需點擊一下按鈕，投資者就可以即時訪問運營結果、資產負債表、管理層評論和投資者演示文稿。</p>
<p>此外，投資者可以跟蹤華爾街內部人士的買賣活動，這些內部人士是上市公司的高管和董事會成員。內部人士需要在交易日期後的兩個工作日內向證券交易委員會提交 4 號表格。</p>
<p>在 2024 年 12 月 3 日，英偉達達到了一個可疑的里程碑。這標誌着自四年前最後一位內部人士在公開市場購買該公司股票以來的確切四年。在這種情況下，是首席財務官科萊特·克雷斯的兩個孩子受益於各自 100 股的購買，根據 4 號表格的備案。在隨後的四年兩個月中，共提交了 161 份 4 號表格，全部為內部銷售，總額達 34 億美元。</p>
<p>公平地説，並非所有內部人士的賣出活動都是惡意的。許多高管的薪酬大部分以歸屬股票和股票期權的形式發放。內部人士需要在期權合約到期之前執行，並可能選擇出售公司股票以支付聯邦和/或州税。</p>
<p>然而，在 50 個月的時間裏，161 次出售與 0 次購買的比例是一個相當有説服力的故事。如果公司的管理團隊和董事會都不認為他們的股票是個便宜貨，投資者又為什麼要這樣認為呢？</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/e4f5f4b475795389f59d1296b66b3dd9.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/e4f5f4b475795389f59d1296b66b3dd9.png"/></p>
<p>NVDA PS 比率數據來自 YCharts。PS = 市盈率。</p>
<p>處於下一次重大創新前沿的公司處於泡沫之中並不是什麼新鮮事。從上世紀 90 年代中期互聯網的出現開始，每一次顛覆性的技術創新都經歷了早期階段的泡沫。由於大多數企業在其人工智能投資中缺乏明確的遊戲計劃，我們很可能再次見證歷史的重演。</p>
<p>英偉達的估值也與之前的泡沫一致。在 25 年前互聯網泡沫破裂之前，<strong>亞馬遜</strong> 和 <strong>思科系統</strong> 的市盈率大約為其過去 12 個月（TTM）銷售額的 40 倍。或許並非巧合，英偉達在去年夏天的市盈率達到了約 42 倍的 TTM 銷售額。</p>
<p>即使英偉達在人工智能加速的數據中心擁有明確的競爭優勢，內部人士的持續賣出和完全缺乏買入也表明英偉達的股票被高估了。</p>

英偉達

<p>英偉達經歷了顯著增長，憑藉其 GPU 成為人工智能技術的領導者，市場價值已超過 3 萬億美元。然而，內部交易活動引發了擔憂，因為在過去四年中沒有任何內部購買，僅有總計 34 億美元的銷售。這種缺乏內部購買的情況可能表明高管們並不認為該股票被低估，這促使投資者重新考慮他們的持倉。公司的成功與其創新產品以及對人工智能解決方案日益增長的需求密切相關，但內部信心的缺失值得關注</p>

<p>Optimists have had every reason to smile over the last two-plus years. Since the <strong>Dow Jones Industrial Average</strong>, <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong>, and <strong>Nasdaq Composite</strong> bottomed out in October 2022, the bulls have been in firm control on Wall Street. Recently, all three indexes worked their way to record-closing highs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>樂觀者在過去兩年多的時間裏有充分的理由微笑。自從 <strong>道瓊斯工業平均指數</strong>、<strong>標準普爾 500 指數</strong> 和 <strong>納斯達克綜合指數</strong> 在 2022 年 10 月觸底以來，華爾街的牛市一直牢牢掌控着局面。最近，這三個指數都達到了創紀錄的收盤高點。</p>
</div><p>Though catalysts have been abundant and include Donald Trump's return to the White House, stock-split euphoria, and better-than-expected corporate earnings, the primary wind in Wall Street's sails has been the rise of artificial intelligence (AI).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管催化因素眾多，包括唐納德·特朗普重返白宮、股票拆分的狂熱以及超出預期的企業盈利，但推動華爾街前進的主要動力是人工智能（AI）的崛起。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDcwOTgvYXJ0aWZpY2lhbC1pbnRlbGxpZ2VuY2UtYWktZmFjZS1jbG91ZC1jb25uZWN0aW9uLWdldHR5LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F807098%2Fartificial-intelligence-ai-face-cloud-connection-getty.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><p>The ceiling associated with AI is astronomically high. Giving software and systems the ability to reason, act, and evolve over time, all without the need for human intervention, is a potential long-term game-changer for most industries around the globe. It's why the analysts at PwC believe artificial intelligence will add $15.7 trillion to the global economy by 2030.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>與人工智能相關的天花板高得驚人。賦予軟件和系統推理、行動和隨時間演變的能力，完全不需要人類干預，這對全球大多數行業來説都是潛在的長期遊戲規則改變者。這就是為什麼普華永道的分析師認為，到 2030 年，人工智能將為全球經濟增加 15.7 萬億美元。</p>
</div><p>While there have been dozens of direct and ancillary beneficiaries of the AI revolution, no company is the face of this movement more than <strong>Nvidia</strong>(NVDA -0.58%).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>雖然在人工智能革命中有數十個直接和間接受益者，但沒有哪家公司比 <strong>英偉達</strong>（Nvidia）更能代表這一運動。</p>
</div><h2>Nvidia rightly claims its spot as the AI kingpin</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>英偉達理所當然地聲稱自己是人工智能的核心</h2>
</div><p>When the curtain closed on 2022, Nvidia was a $360 billion tech stock known best for its graphics processing units (GPUs) used in PC gaming and cryptocurrency mining. Less than two years later, it had gained more than $3 trillion in market value and (briefly) became Wall Street's largest publicly traded company.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>當 2022 年落幕時，英偉達是一家市值 3600 億美元的科技股，以其用於 PC 遊戲和加密貨幣挖礦的圖形處理單元（GPU）而聞名。不到兩年後，其市值增加了超過 3 萬億美元，並（短暫地）成為華爾街最大的上市公司。</p>
</div><p>Nvidia's ascension has everything to do with its Hopper (H100) GPU and next-generation Blackwell GPU architecture, which are enabling the training of large language models (LLMs) and powering generative AI solutions. Orders for the company's hardware are backlogged, with CEO Jensen Huang referring to demand for Blackwell as &#34;insane&#34; back in October.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英偉達的崛起與其 Hopper（H100）GPU 和下一代 Blackwell GPU 架構密切相關，這些技術使得大型語言模型（LLM）的訓練成為可能，並推動了生成式人工智能解決方案的發展。該公司的硬件訂單積壓，首席執行官黃仁勳在 10 月時形容對 Blackwell 的需求為 “瘋狂”。</p>
</div><p>Having a superior product, in terms of computing speed, and having demand for that product overwhelm supply, is an envious position to be in. AI-GPU scarcity has allowed Nvidia to charge a 100% to 300% premium to competing AI chips, which in turn has pushed its gross margin into the stratosphere.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在計算速度方面擁有優越的產品，並且對該產品的需求超出供應，這是一個令人羨慕的地位。人工智能 GPU 的稀缺性使得英偉達能夠對競爭對手的人工智能芯片收取 100% 到 300% 的溢價，這反過來又將其毛利率推向了天文數字。</p>
</div><p>Nvidia is having success beyond its AI hardware, as well. The company's CUDA software platform, which is used by developers to build LLMs and maximize the computing potential of their GPUs, is helping to keep clients loyal to its ecosystem of products and services.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英偉達在其人工智能硬件之外也取得了成功。該公司的 CUDA 軟件平台被開發者用於構建 LLM 並最大化其 GPU 的計算潛力，幫助客户保持對其產品和服務生態系統的忠誠。</p>
</div><p>With enterprise AI spending still in its infancy and no other chipmakers particularly close to matching the computing potential of the Hopper or next-gen Blackwell GPU, Nvidia would appear to be ideally positioned for the future.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>隨着企業人工智能支出仍處於起步階段，且沒有其他芯片製造商能夠接近 Hopper 或下一代 Blackwell GPU 的計算潛力，英偉達似乎在未來的競爭中處於理想位置。</p>
</div><p>But if investors pay close attention to what Nvidia's insiders are up to, they might change their tune.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但如果投資者密切關注英偉達內部人士的動向，他們可能會改變看法。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDcwOTgvaW52ZXN0b3ItcHJlc3Npbmctc2VsbC1idXR0b24tZ2V0dHkuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F807098%2Finvestor-pressing-sell-button-getty.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Nvidia's insiders are speaking volumes -- but is anyone listening?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>英偉達的內部人士發出了重要信號——但有人在傾聽嗎？</h2>
</div><p>One of the best aspects of putting your money to work on Wall Street is that it's more transparent than it's ever been. With a click of a button, investors have instant access to operating results, balance sheets, management commentary, and investor presentations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在華爾街投資的一個最佳方面是，它比以往任何時候都更加透明。只需點擊一下按鈕，投資者就可以即時訪問運營結果、資產負債表、管理層評論和投資者演示文稿。</p>
</div><p>Additionally, investors can track the purchasing and selling activity of Wall Street insiders, which represent the high-ranking executives and board members of publicly traded companies. Insiders are required to file Form 4 with the Securities and Exchange Commission within two businesses days following a transaction date.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，投資者可以跟蹤華爾街內部人士的買賣活動，這些內部人士是上市公司的高管和董事會成員。內部人士需要在交易日期後的兩個工作日內向證券交易委員會提交 4 號表格。</p>
</div><p>On Dec. 3, 2024, Nvidia hit a dubious milestone. This marked exactly four years since the last insider purchased shares of the company on the open market. In this case, it was Chief Financial Officer Colette Kress's two children who were the beneficiaries of respective 100-share purchases, per the Form 4 filing. In the four years and two months that have followed, 161 Form 4s have been filed, all of which were insider sales totaling an aggregate of $3.4 billion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2024 年 12 月 3 日，英偉達達到了一個可疑的里程碑。這標誌着自四年前最後一位內部人士在公開市場購買該公司股票以來的確切四年。在這種情況下，是首席財務官科萊特·克雷斯的兩個孩子受益於各自 100 股的購買，根據 4 號表格的備案。在隨後的四年兩個月中，共提交了 161 份 4 號表格，全部為內部銷售，總額達 34 億美元。</p>
</div><p>To be fair, not all insider selling activity is necessarily nefarious. A lot of high-ranking executives receive the lion's share of their compensation in the form of vested shares and stock options. Insiders need to execute their options contracts before they expire and might choose to sell shares of their company to cover their federal and/or state tax liability.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>公平地説，並非所有內部人士的賣出活動都是惡意的。許多高管的薪酬大部分以歸屬股票和股票期權的形式發放。內部人士需要在期權合約到期之前執行，並可能選擇出售公司股票以支付聯邦和/或州税。</p>
</div><p>Then again, 161 dispositions to 0 acquisitions over a span of 50 months is a pretty telling story. If the company's own management team and board of directors don't view their stock as a bargain, why should investors?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，在 50 個月的時間裏，161 次出售與 0 次購買的比例是一個相當有説服力的故事。如果公司的管理團隊和董事會都不認為他們的股票是個便宜貨，投資者又為什麼要這樣認為呢？</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/e4f5f4b475795389f59d1296b66b3dd9.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/e4f5f4b475795389f59d1296b66b3dd9.png"/></p>
<p>NVDA PS Ratio data by YCharts. PS = price to sales.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>NVDA PS 比率數據來自 YCharts。PS = 市盈率。</p>
</div><p>Companies on the leading edge of a next-big-thing innovation being in a bubble is nothing new. Dating back to the advent of the internet in the mid-1990s, every game-changing technological innovation has navigated its way through an early stage bubble. With most businesses lacking a clear game plan with their AI investments, there's a good chance we're witnessing history rhyme, once more.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>處於下一次重大創新前沿的公司處於泡沫之中並不是什麼新鮮事。從上世紀 90 年代中期互聯網的出現開始，每一次顛覆性的技術創新都經歷了早期階段的泡沫。由於大多數企業在其人工智能投資中缺乏明確的遊戲計劃，我們很可能再次見證歷史的重演。</p>
</div><p>Nvidia's valuation is also consistent with previous bubbles. Prior to the bursting of the dot-com bubble a quarter of a century ago, <strong>Amazon</strong> and <strong>Cisco Systems</strong> peaked at roughly 40 times their trailing-12-month (TTM) sales. Perhaps uncoincidentally, Nvidia topped out around 42 times TTM sales last summer.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英偉達的估值也與之前的泡沫一致。在 25 年前互聯網泡沫破裂之前，<strong>亞馬遜</strong> 和 <strong>思科系統</strong> 的市盈率大約為其過去 12 個月（TTM）銷售額的 40 倍。或許並非巧合，英偉達在去年夏天的市盈率達到了約 42 倍的 TTM 銷售額。</p>
</div><p>Even with Nvidia possessing well-defined competitive advantages in AI-accelerated data centers, the persistent selling by insiders and complete lack of buying points to Nvidia stock being richly valued.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>即使英偉達在人工智能加速的數據中心擁有明確的競爭優勢，內部人士的持續賣出和完全缺乏買入也表明英偉達的股票被高估了。</p>
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Nvidia's Insiders Are Speaking Volumes With Their Trading Activity -- but Are You Listening?

- 自 2022 年 10 月以來，華爾街牛市持續，三大指數創下新高。  
- 人工智能的崛起被認為是推動市場的主要因素，Nvidia 成為 AI 領域的領軍企業。  
- 然而，Nvidia 內部人士在過去四年中未購入股票，反映出對公司估值的擔憂。  

英偉達的內部人士通過他們的交易活動傳遞了大量信息——但你有在關注嗎？