<p><strong>英偉達</strong>(NVDA -0.58%) 的股票在近期市場表現中一直名列前茅，甚至在去年的 <strong>道瓊斯工業平均指數</strong> 中錄得 171% 的最大漲幅。這種勢頭的原因是什麼？該公司在當今可能是增長最快、潛力最大的市場——人工智能（AI）領域建立了巨大的領導地位。</p>
<p>今天，價值 2000 億美元的 AI 市場預計到本世紀末將超過 1 萬億美元，AI 有潛力改變許多行業和我們的日常生活。所有這些都可能為該領域的公司帶來顯著的收入增長。英偉達的收益已經受益，因為該公司銷售開發和應用 AI 所需的產品和服務——從芯片到軟件。</p>
<p>因此，這家科技巨頭的收入在每個季度都實現了兩位數和三位數的增長，達到了數十億美元的歷史新高。正如前面提到的，股價也隨之上漲。</p>
<p>但最近，股價從高點回落，並且在過去四年中僅發生過兩次類似的情況。回顧歷史，我們可以看到接下來可能會發生什麼。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDcyNjYvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTMzNTAyNzI4NC5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDcyNjYvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTMzNTAyNzI4NC5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>訓練與推理</h2>
<p>首先，簡要回顧一下英偉達的故事。該科技公司是全球頂級圖形處理單元（GPU）的設計者，這些高性能芯片對於 AI 任務（如模型的訓練和推理）至關重要。在英偉達的早期，它主要向視頻遊戲市場銷售 GPU，但隨着這些芯片在其他行業中的關鍵作用逐漸顯現，英偉達開始向這些領域擴展。</p>
<p>此外，英偉達建立了一個完整的相關產品和服務生態系統，成為任何創建 AI 程序的客户的一站式商店。如今，英偉達為全球最大的科技公司提供服務——從 <strong>Meta Platforms</strong> 到 <strong>Microsoft</strong> ——並處於關鍵 AI 項目的中心。例如，當 OpenAI 和美國政府最近宣佈一項 5000 億美元的 AI 基礎設施項目時，他們將英偉達指定為關鍵技術合作夥伴。</p>
<p>正如前面提到的，英偉達在 AI 領域的優勢推動了股價的上漲，並提升了其估值，使得該股票在過去四年中曾交易至超過 75 倍的未來收益預期。隨着分析師的收益預測上升，股票的估值有所回落，過去六個月內一般交易在約 48 倍的未來收益預期。</p>
<h2>英偉達的估值</h2>
<p>讓我們考慮一下英偉達股票在最近幾周的走勢。該股票已經下跌，並跌破了 30 倍未來收益預期的估值。在過去四年中，它僅在另外兩個時期跌破過該水平——一次是在大約一年前，另一次是在 2023 年春季。歷史表明，當這種情況發生時，股票在接下來的幾個月中往往會飆升。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/a18ee3d91576bb642f9f60b27752f8b0.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/a18ee3d91576bb642f9f60b27752f8b0.png"/></p>
<p>NVDA 市盈率（未來）數據來源於 YCharts。</p>
<p>如果歷史是一個準確的指南，模式表明英偉達股票在最近的下跌和估值下降後，應該很快會大幅上漲。當然，重要的是要記住，投資者不能總是依賴歷史作為指導。股票和市場通常會給投資者帶來驚喜。</p>
<p>這就是為什麼在做出任何投資決策之前，考慮公司的收益記錄和長期前景至關重要。考慮到這一點，對英偉達充滿信心是有理由的。上面提到的公司在 AI 產品和服務方面的強大提供以及令人印象深刻的收入。這些收入也伴隨着高銷售利潤率，毛利率始終超過 70%。</p>
<p>英偉達承諾每年更新其 GPU。它現在正在推出其 Blackwell 架構，這一創新將使競爭對手很難獲得顯著的市場份額。</p>
<p>歷史表明，英偉達股票在最近的暫停和估值下降後，正處於反彈的良好時機——這確實可能發生。但真正讓英偉達成為買入的原因在於公司的財務實力、市場地位和對創新的關注——這三者應該在長期內帶來增長和股票表現。</p>

英偉達

<p>英偉達的股票最近回落至 30 倍未來收益預期的估值以下，這是在過去四年中僅有兩次跌破這一水平。歷史上，此類下跌通常預示着顯著的股票反彈。這家公司是人工智能技術的領導者，憑藉其創新產品和強大的市場地位，收入和盈利能力大幅增長。分析師建議，英偉達的股票可能很快會再次上漲，受到其財務實力和人工智能持續進步的支持</p>

<p><strong>Nvidia</strong>(NVDA -0.58%) stock has been one of the market's best performers in recent times, even posting the biggest gain last year in the <strong>Dow Jones Industrial Average</strong> with a 171% increase. What's the reason for this momentum? The company has built tremendous leadership in what may be today's highest-growth and highest-potential market: artificial intelligence (AI).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>英偉達</strong>(NVDA -0.58%) 的股票在近期市場表現中一直名列前茅，甚至在去年的 <strong>道瓊斯工業平均指數</strong> 中錄得 171% 的最大漲幅。這種勢頭的原因是什麼？該公司在當今可能是增長最快、潛力最大的市場——人工智能（AI）領域建立了巨大的領導地位。</p>
</div><p>Today's $200 billion AI market is forecast to reach more than $1 trillion by the end of the decade, and AI holds the potential to transform many industries and our daily lives. All of this could generate significant revenue growth for companies in the space. Nvidia's earnings already are benefiting, since the company sells the products and services -- from chips to software -- needed to develop AI and apply it.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今天，價值 2000 億美元的 AI 市場預計到本世紀末將超過 1 萬億美元，AI 有潛力改變許多行業和我們的日常生活。所有這些都可能為該領域的公司帶來顯著的收入增長。英偉達的收益已經受益，因為該公司銷售開發和應用 AI 所需的產品和服務——從芯片到軟件。</p>
</div><p>As a result, the tech-giant's revenue has advanced in the double-digits and triple-digits, quarter after quarter, reaching records well into the billions of dollars. The stock price, as mentioned, has followed.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，這家科技巨頭的收入在每個季度都實現了兩位數和三位數的增長，達到了數十億美元的歷史新高。正如前面提到的，股價也隨之上漲。</p>
</div><p>But recently, the stock has retreated from its highs and has done something it's only done twice before in the past four years. A look at history shows us what's likely to happen next.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但最近，股價從高點回落，並且在過去四年中僅發生過兩次類似的情況。回顧歷史，我們可以看到接下來可能會發生什麼。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDcyNjYvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTMzNTAyNzI4NC5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F807266%2Fgettyimages-1335027284.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Training and inferencing</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>訓練與推理</h2>
</div><p>First, here's a quick summary of Nvidia's story so far. The tech player is the designer of the world's top-performing graphics processing units (GPUs), or high-powered chips critical for AI tasks like the training and inferencing of models. In Nvidia's earlier days, it sold GPUs mainly to the video gaming market, but as it became clear these chips could play a key role in other industries, Nvidia expanded into these areas.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>首先，簡要回顧一下英偉達的故事。該科技公司是全球頂級圖形處理單元（GPU）的設計者，這些高性能芯片對於 AI 任務（如模型的訓練和推理）至關重要。在英偉達的早期，它主要向視頻遊戲市場銷售 GPU，但隨着這些芯片在其他行業中的關鍵作用逐漸顯現，英偉達開始向這些領域擴展。</p>
</div><p>On top of this, Nvidia built an entire ecosystem of related products and services to become the one-stop shop for any customer creating an AI program. Today, Nvidia serves the world's biggest technology companies -- from <strong>Meta Platforms</strong> to <strong>Microsoft</strong> -- and is at the center of key AI projects. For example, when OpenAI and the U.S. government recently announced a new $500 billion AI infrastructure project, they named Nvidia as a key technology partner.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，英偉達建立了一個完整的相關產品和服務生態系統，成為任何創建 AI 程序的客户的一站式商店。如今，英偉達為全球最大的科技公司提供服務——從 <strong>Meta Platforms</strong> 到 <strong>Microsoft</strong> ——並處於關鍵 AI 項目的中心。例如，當 OpenAI 和美國政府最近宣佈一項 5000 億美元的 AI 基礎設施項目時，他們將英偉達指定為關鍵技術合作夥伴。</p>
</div><p>As mentioned, Nvidia's AI strengths have driven gains in the stock and lifted its valuation so that the stock has traded as high as more than 75x forward earnings estimates within the past four years. As analysts' earnings forecasts have climbed, the stock's valuation has come down somewhat, and it generally has traded for about 48x forward earnings estimates over the past six months.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>正如前面提到的，英偉達在 AI 領域的優勢推動了股價的上漲，並提升了其估值，使得該股票在過去四年中曾交易至超過 75 倍的未來收益預期。隨着分析師的收益預測上升，股票的估值有所回落，過去六個月內一般交易在約 48 倍的未來收益預期。</p>
</div><h2>Nvidia's valuation</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>英偉達的估值</h2>
</div><p>Let's consider the move Nvidia stock has made in recent weeks. The stock has declined and fallen below the valuation of 30x forward earnings estimates. It's only dropped below that level during two other periods over the past four years -- once about a year ago, and the other time in the spring of 2023. History shows that when that happened in the past, the stock then went on to soar in the months to follow.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>讓我們考慮一下英偉達股票在最近幾周的走勢。該股票已經下跌，並跌破了 30 倍未來收益預期的估值。在過去四年中，它僅在另外兩個時期跌破過該水平——一次是在大約一年前，另一次是在 2023 年春季。歷史表明，當這種情況發生時，股票在接下來的幾個月中往往會飆升。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/a18ee3d91576bb642f9f60b27752f8b0.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/a18ee3d91576bb642f9f60b27752f8b0.png"/></p>
<p>NVDA Price-to-Earnings Ratio (Forward) data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>NVDA 市盈率（未來）數據來源於 YCharts。</p>
</div><p>If history is an accurate guide, patterns suggest that Nvidia stock, after the recent dip and decline in valuation, should soon roar higher. Of course, it's important to keep in mind that investors can't always rely on history for guidance. Stocks and the market, in general, have been known to surprise investors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果歷史是一個準確的指南，模式表明英偉達股票在最近的下跌和估值下降後，應該很快會大幅上漲。當然，重要的是要記住，投資者不能總是依賴歷史作為指導。股票和市場通常會給投資者帶來驚喜。</p>
</div><p>This is why it's key to consider a company's earnings track record and long-term prospects before making any investment decision. With that in mind, there's reason to be confident about Nvidia. Above, I spoke of the company's solid offering of AI products and services and impressive revenue. This revenue also comes with high profitability on sales, with gross margin consistently surpassing 70%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這就是為什麼在做出任何投資決策之前，考慮公司的收益記錄和長期前景至關重要。考慮到這一點，對英偉達充滿信心是有理由的。上面提到的公司在 AI 產品和服務方面的強大提供以及令人印象深刻的收入。這些收入也伴隨着高銷售利潤率，毛利率始終超過 70%。</p>
</div><p>Nvidia has pledged to update its GPUs on an annual basis. It's now launching its Blackwell architecture, and this innovation will make it difficult for rivals to take significant market share.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英偉達承諾每年更新其 GPU。它現在正在推出其 Blackwell 架構，這一創新將使競爭對手很難獲得顯著的市場份額。</p>
</div><p>History suggests that Nvidia stock, after its recent pause and drop in valuation, is ripe for a rally -- and that may indeed happen. But what really makes Nvidia a buy is the company's financial strength, market position, and focus on innovation -- three elements that should deliver growth and stock performance over the long haul.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>歷史表明，英偉達股票在最近的暫停和估值下降後，正處於反彈的良好時機——這確實可能發生。但真正讓英偉達成為買入的原因在於公司的財務實力、市場地位和對創新的關注——這三者應該在長期內帶來增長和股票表現。</p>
</div>

Nvidia Stock Is Doing Something It's Only Done Twice Before in the Past 4 Years. History Says This Will Happen Next.

- Nvidia 股票在市場表現優異，去年漲幅達 171%。  
- 公司在人工智能領域佔據領導地位，預計市場將從 2000 億美元增至 1 萬億美元。  
- 歷史數據顯示，Nvidia 股票在估值下滑後通常會迎來上漲。  

英偉達股票正在進行過去四年中僅有兩次的操作。歷史表明接下來會發生這樣的情況