<p><strong>蘋果</strong>(AAPL 2.18%) 一直是沃倫·巴菲特和 <strong>伯克希爾哈撒韋</strong> (BRK.A 0.50%)(BRK.B 0.52%) 最有利可圖和最著名的投資之一。然而，他們最近一直在有條不紊地出售其股份。</p>
<p>伯克希爾對蘋果的持股在 2023 年第三季度達到了頂峯，當時它持有超過 9 億股蘋果股票，價值超過 1500 億美元。這佔其投資組合的 50%，在一隻股票中集中度相當高。截至 2024 年第三季度，伯克希爾持有 3 億股蘋果股票，價值接近 700 億美元。</p>
<p>這比伯克希爾在第二季度持有的 4 億股和第一季度持有的 7.89 億股有所減少。這一模式非常明顯，我認為可以安全地假設沃倫·巴菲特和伯克希爾在第四季度又出售了價值 250 億美元的股票。</p>
<h2>蘋果可能不再是伯克希爾最大的持股</h2>
<p>投資者可能會問的第一個問題是，我是如何獲得關於巴菲特和伯克希爾交易的信息的？任何投資超過 1 億美元的公司都必須在每個季度結束時向美國證券交易委員會（SEC）報告其持股情況。然後，這些持股將在季度結束後 45 天以名為 13F 的文件公開發布。</p>
<p>雖然這並不能完全準確地反映當前的持股情況，但它為投資者提供了公司未來走向的線索，尤其是對於像沃倫·巴菲特這樣的長期投資者。下一輪 13F 文件的提交日期是 2 月 14 日，因此我們很快就能瞭解到巴菲特的動向。</p>
<p>蘋果仍然是巴菲特最大的持股，佔其投資組合的約 23%。第二大投資是 <strong>美國運通</strong> (NYSE: AXP)，佔 16%。然而，如果我預測巴菲特又出售了 1 億股蘋果（價值約 250 億美元）成真，那麼蘋果將成為巴菲特的第二大持股，除非他以戲劇性的方式出售或增加其他持股。</p>
<p>那麼，巴菲特為什麼要出售蘋果呢？畢竟，他一直是這家公司的支持者。</p>
<h2>蘋果的業務在過去三年中沒有增長</h2>
<p>今天的蘋果與巴菲特在 2016 年第一季度首次投資時的蘋果並不相同。那時，蘋果的股票非常便宜，但它是主導的消費電子品牌，智能手機市場（蘋果最大的細分市場）仍然有大量的增長和創新。</p>
<p>2016 年第一季度，蘋果的平均市盈率（P/E）為 10.6。現在這一數字已上升到顯著更高的水平，市盈率為 37 倍。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/4bec243c6465cc69a2a4b93ea68c41b9.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/4bec243c6465cc69a2a4b93ea68c41b9.png"/></p>
<p>AAPL 市盈率數據來自 YCharts。</p>
<p>這意味着投資者現在願意為蘋果的股票支付近四倍於 2016 年的價格。這一事實是蘋果股票成為成功投資的重要原因，因為其每股收益（EPS）在同一時期內並沒有顯著增長。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/a5a203ef2d4fa255926dd9d09d3d6eab.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/a5a203ef2d4fa255926dd9d09d3d6eab.png"/></p>
<p>AAPL 每股收益（稀釋後）數據來自 YCharts。</p>
<p>蘋果股票面臨的最大問題是其每股收益的停滯。自 2022 年以來，蘋果的收入和收益沒有顯著增長。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/83864150afa411e31ff008be8eccd491.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/83864150afa411e31ff008be8eccd491.png"/></p>
<p>AAPL 每股收益（稀釋後）數據來自 YCharts。</p>
<p>這一點在過去幾年通貨膨脹嚴重的背景下更為明顯。根據美國勞工統計局的消費者物價指數（CPI）通貨膨脹計算器，今天 1 美元的購買力相當於 2022 年 1 月的 1.12 美元。這意味着蘋果的收益和收入在經過通貨膨脹調整後實際上是下降的，這對投資來説不是一個好兆頭。</p>
<p>然而，自 2022 年以來，蘋果的股票上漲了超過 30%。如果你去掉蘋果的名字，僅僅呈現這些信息，你會認為這隻股票顯著被高估。但由於股票上有 “蘋果” 這個名字，這一切似乎是合理的。</p>
<p>雖然品牌名稱是有價值的，但我認為投資者需要關注蘋果的現狀，因為它已經很長時間沒有顯示出有意義的增長。巴菲特和他的伯克希爾團隊意識到了這一點，並通過提前出售來搶佔先機。畢竟，出售巴菲特這樣規模的持倉並不容易，而不會在市場上引起波動。</p>
<p>蘋果不再是巴菲特及其團隊所尋找的價值股。它也不是成長股，這使得蘋果處於一個糟糕的境地：被高估。雖然我認為巴菲特和他的團隊在第四季度將出售約 1 億股（我們將在 2 月 14 日確認這一點），但如果更多也不奇怪。我認為巴菲特在這筆交易中處於正確的一方，任何持有蘋果股票的人都應該跟隨他的腳步。</p>

伯克希爾哈撒韋-B

伯克希爾哈撒韋-A

蘋果

<p>據報道，沃倫·巴菲特和伯克希爾哈撒韋在 2023 年第四季度出售了價值 250 億美元的蘋果股票，將其持股從超過 9 億股減少到 3 億股。這一下降反映了一個更廣泛的賣出趨勢，因為蘋果的增長已經停滯，其市盈率顯著上升，而盈利卻停滯不前。如果這一預測成真，蘋果可能會降至巴菲特投資組合中的第二大持股。下一個 13F 文件將在 2 月 14 日公佈，將確認這些交易，突顯巴菲特逐漸遠離蘋果，因為蘋果不再符合他的投資策略</p>

<p><strong>Apple</strong>(AAPL 2.18%) has been one of Warren Buffett and <strong>Berkshire Hathaway</strong>'s (BRK.A 0.50%)(BRK.B 0.52%) most profitable and famous investments. However, they've been selling off their shares pretty methodically lately.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>蘋果</strong>(AAPL 2.18%) 一直是沃倫·巴菲特和 <strong>伯克希爾哈撒韋</strong> (BRK.A 0.50%)(BRK.B 0.52%) 最有利可圖和最著名的投資之一。然而，他們最近一直在有條不紊地出售其股份。</p>
</div><p>Berkshire's Apple holding peaked in third-quarter 2023, when it held over 900 million Apple shares, valued at over $150 billion. This made up 50% of its investment portfolio, a significant concentration in one stock. As of Q3 2024, Berkshire owned 300 million shares of Apple stock, valued at just shy of $70 billion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>伯克希爾對蘋果的持股在 2023 年第三季度達到了頂峯，當時它持有超過 9 億股蘋果股票，價值超過 1500 億美元。這佔其投資組合的 50%，在一隻股票中集中度相當高。截至 2024 年第三季度，伯克希爾持有 3 億股蘋果股票，價值接近 700 億美元。</p>
</div><p>This was a decrease from the 400 million shares Berkshire owned in the second quarter and the 789 million it owned in the first. This pattern is pretty clear, and I think it's safe to assume that Warren Buffett and Berkshire sold another $25 billion worth of stock in the fourth quarter.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這比伯克希爾在第二季度持有的 4 億股和第一季度持有的 7.89 億股有所減少。這一模式非常明顯，我認為可以安全地假設沃倫·巴菲特和伯克希爾在第四季度又出售了價值 250 億美元的股票。</p>
</div><h2>Apple may not be Berkshire's largest holding anymore</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>蘋果可能不再是伯克希爾最大的持股</h2>
</div><p>One of the first questions an investor may have is, how am I getting this information about what Buffett and Berkshire are trading? Any company with over $100 million in investments is required to report its end-of-quarter holdings to the SEC each quarter. Then, those holdings are released to the public 45 days after the quarter closes in a document called a 13F.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投資者可能會問的第一個問題是，我是如何獲得關於巴菲特和伯克希爾交易的信息的？任何投資超過 1 億美元的公司都必須在每個季度結束時向美國證券交易委員會（SEC）報告其持股情況。然後，這些持股將在季度結束後 45 天以名為 13F 的文件公開發布。</p>
</div><p>While this doesn't give a perfectly accurate view into the current holdings, it gives investors an idea of where the company is heading, especially for long-term-minded investors like Warren Buffett. The next round of 13F filings is due on Feb. 14, so we'll get an idea of what Buffett has been doing shortly.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>雖然這並不能完全準確地反映當前的持股情況，但它為投資者提供了公司未來走向的線索，尤其是對於像沃倫·巴菲特這樣的長期投資者。下一輪 13F 文件的提交日期是 2 月 14 日，因此我們很快就能瞭解到巴菲特的動向。</p>
</div><p>Apple is still Buffett's largest holding, making up around 23% of his investment portfolio. The next biggest investment, <strong>American Express</strong>(NYSE: AXP), totals 16%. However, if my prediction that Buffett has sold another 100 million shares of Apple (worth around $25 billion) comes true, then Apple would become Buffett's second-largest holding, unless he sells off or adds to some of his other holdings in a dramatic fashion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>蘋果仍然是巴菲特最大的持股，佔其投資組合的約 23%。第二大投資是 <strong>美國運通</strong> (NYSE: AXP)，佔 16%。然而，如果我預測巴菲特又出售了 1 億股蘋果（價值約 250 億美元）成真，那麼蘋果將成為巴菲特的第二大持股，除非他以戲劇性的方式出售或增加其他持股。</p>
</div><p>So why is Buffett selling off Apple? After all, he's been a proponent of the business for a long time.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>那麼，巴菲特為什麼要出售蘋果呢？畢竟，他一直是這家公司的支持者。</p>
</div><h2>Apple's business hasn't grown over the last three years</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>蘋果的業務在過去三年中沒有增長</h2>
</div><p>Apple is not the business today that is was when Buffett first invested in it during Q1 2016. Back then, Apple was a dirt cheap stock, yet it was the dominant consumer electronics brand, and there was still a ton of growth and innovation happening in the smartphone market, Apple's largest segment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今天的蘋果與巴菲特在 2016 年第一季度首次投資時的蘋果並不相同。那時，蘋果的股票非常便宜，但它是主導的消費電子品牌，智能手機市場（蘋果最大的細分市場）仍然有大量的增長和創新。</p>
</div><p>Apple's average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio during Q1 2016 was 10.6. It has now risen to a significantly higher level, trading for 37 times earnings.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>2016 年第一季度，蘋果的平均市盈率（P/E）為 10.6。現在這一數字已上升到顯著更高的水平，市盈率為 37 倍。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/4bec243c6465cc69a2a4b93ea68c41b9.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/4bec243c6465cc69a2a4b93ea68c41b9.png"/></p>
<p>AAPL PE Ratio data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>AAPL 市盈率數據來自 YCharts。</p>
</div><p>That means investors are willing to pay nearly four times as much for Apple's stock now as they were in 2016. This fact is a big reason why Apple's stock has been such a successful investment, as its earnings per share (EPS) haven't risen nearly as much during that same timeframe.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這意味着投資者現在願意為蘋果的股票支付近四倍於 2016 年的價格。這一事實是蘋果股票成為成功投資的重要原因，因為其每股收益（EPS）在同一時期內並沒有顯著增長。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/a5a203ef2d4fa255926dd9d09d3d6eab.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/a5a203ef2d4fa255926dd9d09d3d6eab.png"/></p>
<p>AAPL EPS Diluted (TTM) data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>AAPL 每股收益（稀釋後）數據來自 YCharts。</p>
</div><p>The biggest issue with Apple's stock is the EPS plateau that Apple has been on. Since 2022, Apple's revenue and earnings haven't grown in any appreciable manner.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>蘋果股票面臨的最大問題是其每股收益的停滯。自 2022 年以來，蘋果的收入和收益沒有顯著增長。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/83864150afa411e31ff008be8eccd491.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/83864150afa411e31ff008be8eccd491.png"/></p>
<p>AAPL EPS Diluted (TTM) data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>AAPL 每股收益（稀釋後）數據來自 YCharts。</p>
</div><p>This is further exaggerated by the fact that inflation has raged during the past few years. Using the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation calculator, the purchasing power of $1 in today's money is the equivalent of $1.12 in January 2022's money. That means Apple's earnings and revenue have actually <em>fallen</em> on an inflation-adjusted basis, which isn't a good sign for the investment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這一點在過去幾年通貨膨脹嚴重的背景下更為明顯。根據美國勞工統計局的消費者物價指數（CPI）通貨膨脹計算器，今天 1 美元的購買力相當於 2022 年 1 月的 1.12 美元。這意味着蘋果的收益和收入在經過通貨膨脹調整後實際上是下降的，這對投資來説不是一個好兆頭。</p>
</div><p>However, since 2022, Apple's stock has risen more than 30%. If you removed Apple's name from the stock and presented just this information, you would assume the stock is significantly overvalued. But somehow, because the name &#34;Apple&#34; is on the stock, it's justifiable.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，自 2022 年以來，蘋果的股票上漲了超過 30%。如果你去掉蘋果的名字，僅僅呈現這些信息，你會認為這隻股票顯著被高估。但由於股票上有 “蘋果” 這個名字，這一切似乎是合理的。</p>
</div><p>While the brand name is worth something, I think investors need to take a look at what's happening to Apple, as it hasn't been able to show meaningful growth in some time. Buffett and his crew at Berkshire realize this and are getting ahead of the curve by selling early. After all, it's not easy to sell off a position the size of Buffett's without making waves in the market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>雖然品牌名稱是有價值的，但我認為投資者需要關注蘋果的現狀，因為它已經很長時間沒有顯示出有意義的增長。巴菲特和他的伯克希爾團隊意識到了這一點，並通過提前出售來搶佔先機。畢竟，出售巴菲特這樣規模的持倉並不容易，而不會在市場上引起波動。</p>
</div><p>Apple is no longer a value stock like Buffett and his team look for. It's also not a growth stock, leaving Apple in a bad position: Overvalued. While I think Buffett and his team will have sold off around 100 million shares in Q4 (which we will know about for sure on Feb. 14), I wouldn't be surprised if it's more. I think Buffett is on the right side of this trade, and anyone owning Apple shares should follow his lead.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>蘋果不再是巴菲特及其團隊所尋找的價值股。它也不是成長股，這使得蘋果處於一個糟糕的境地：被高估。雖然我認為巴菲特和他的團隊在第四季度將出售約 1 億股（我們將在 2 月 14 日確認這一點），但如果更多也不奇怪。我認為巴菲特在這筆交易中處於正確的一方，任何持有蘋果股票的人都應該跟隨他的腳步。</p>
</div>

Prediction: Warren Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway Sold $25 Billion in Apple Stock in Q4

- 伯克希爾哈撒韋近期逐步減持蘋果股票，持股從 900 百萬降至 300 百萬。  
- 蘋果的市盈率顯著上升，盈利未能同步增長，導致其被視為高估。  
- 投資者應關注蘋果的增長停滯，可能跟隨巴菲特的減持策略。

預測：沃倫·巴菲特和伯克希爾哈撒韋在第四季度出售了 250 億美元的 Apple 股票