<p>大多數零售商並不被視為常青企業，因為它們高度暴露於宏觀經濟和競爭壓力之下。它們還在跟上電子商務、移動和社交媒體市場的重大技術變革方面面臨挑戰。</p>
<p>儘管如此，一些韌性強的零售商在這些挑戰中不斷適應和發展。我個人認為，其中三家長期贏家可以被歸類為 “常青” 股票，今天仍然值得購買：<strong>沃爾瑪</strong>(WMT -0.44%)、<strong>亞馬遜</strong>(AMZN -1.02%) 和 <strong>開市客</strong>(COST -0.34%)。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDcwNTgvdHdvLXBlb3BsZS1zaG9wcGluZy1pbi1hLXN1cGVybWFya2V0LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDcwNTgvdHdvLXBlb3BsZS1zaG9wcGluZy1pbi1hLXN1cGVybWFya2V0LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>1. 沃爾瑪</h2>
<p>沃爾瑪在美國、墨西哥、中國及其他海外市場運營着超過 10,600 家商店和倉儲俱樂部。它還在 19 個國家擁有其他地區性的實體店品牌和電子商務網站。</p>
<p>十年前，沃爾瑪在與亞馬遜及其他電子商務競爭者的競爭中苦苦掙扎。但它通過放緩實體店擴張、翻新現有商店、建立客户關係以及擴展電子商務和移動平台來保持相關性。它還與亞馬遜的價格持平，並通過自己的商店完成更多在線訂單。</p>
<p>從 2014 財年到 2024 財年（截至 2024 年 1 月），沃爾瑪的收入以 3% 的穩定複合年增長率（CAGR）增長——即使在疫情、通貨膨脹和其他宏觀壓力擾動全球經濟的情況下。從 2024 財年到 2027 財年，分析師預計其收入和每股收益（EPS）將分別以 5% 和 11% 的 CAGR 增長，因為它自動化更多訂單，擴展數字能力，並將更多購物者鎖定在其高端的沃爾瑪 + 訂閲服務中。</p>
<p>沃爾瑪的股票在前瞻性市盈率為 37 倍時可能看起來並不便宜，但其規模、多樣化和前瞻性戰略支持了這一更高的估值。這使得它成為一個值得在未來幾十年內購買和持有的常青股票。</p>
<h2>2. 亞馬遜</h2>
<p>亞馬遜並沒有消滅沃爾瑪，但在過去 15 年的 “零售末日” 中，它使許多其他大型零售商破產。現在，它是全球最大的電子商務公司，擁有超過 2 億的 Prime 會員。它還擁有全食超市，提供數字流媒體服務，並通過各種 Alexa 驅動的硬件設備鎖定用户。</p>
<p>這家電子商務巨頭能夠以微薄的利潤運營其第一方和第三方市場，因為它實際上從其雲基礎設施平台——亞馬遜網絡服務（AWS）中獲得了大部分利潤。</p>
<p>AWS 已經是全球最大的雲平台，隨着越來越多的公司升級其雲基礎設施以分析更多數據並支持最新的人工智能應用，它正在變得更大。這個高利潤的雲業務通常會補貼亞馬遜低利潤零售業務的擴展，通過虧損引導策略使其在其他實體零售商面前佔據重大優勢。</p>
<p>從 2014 年到 2024 年，亞馬遜的收入以 22% 的 CAGR 增長，儘管經歷了多次經濟衰退。從 2024 年到 2026 年，分析師預計其收入和 EPS 將分別以 10% 和 17% 的 CAGR 增長，隨着宏觀環境逐漸穩定。以 36 倍的前瞻性市盈率來看，它仍然並不顯得過於昂貴，並且是一個在蓬勃發展的電子商務、雲計算和人工智能市場中的稀有常青投資。</p>
<h2>3. 開市客</h2>
<p>開市客是另一家在與亞馬遜和沃爾瑪的競爭中保持立足之地的零售商。它通過其倉儲俱樂部商店的粘性會員計劃鎖定購物者，相較於傳統零售商提供有吸引力的批量購買折扣。它用其高利潤的會員費來補貼低利潤產品的銷售。</p>
<p>只要開市客繼續開設新店、吸引新會員並保持高續費率，其核心業務將保持健康。從 2014 財年（截至 2014 年 8 月）到 2024 財年，開市客從 663 家倉庫擴展到 891 家倉庫，會員人數從 76,000 人增長到 136,800 人，全球續費率從 87% 增長到 90.5%。在這 10 年中，其總收入以 8% 的 CAGR 增長。</p>
<p>從 2024 財年到 2027 財年，分析師預計開市客的收入和 EPS 將分別以 7% 和 10% 的 CAGR 增長，因為它繼續擴展並鎖定更多購物者。以 52 倍的明年收益來看，它並不便宜，但在未來幾十年內，隨着其常青飛輪持續向正確方向轉動，它可能會變得更大。</p>

開市客

沃爾瑪

<p>這篇文章討論了三隻被認為是 “常青” 的抗壓零售股票：沃爾瑪、亞馬遜和開市客。沃爾瑪適應了電子商務的挑戰，從 2014 年到 2024 年實現了 3% 的收入年複合增長率，未來預計將繼續增長。亞馬遜作為領先的電子商務平台，擁有強大的雲業務支持其零售運營，過去十年的收入年複合增長率為 22%。開市客依靠會員費和批量銷售蓬勃發展，顯示出 8% 的收入年複合增長率，預計將繼續增長。儘管估值較高，這些公司被視為長期投資機會</p>

<p>Most retailers aren't considered evergreen businesses because they're highly exposed to macro and competitive headwinds. They've also struggled to keep pace with major technological shifts in the e-commerce, mobile, and social media markets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>大多數零售商並不被視為常青企業，因為它們高度暴露於宏觀經濟和競爭壓力之下。它們還在跟上電子商務、移動和社交媒體市場的重大技術變革方面面臨挑戰。</p>
</div><p>Nevertheless, some resilient retailers have repeatedly rolled with the punches and evolved through those challenges. I personally believe three of those long-term winners can be classified as &#34;evergreen&#34; stocks that are still worth buying today: <strong>Walmart</strong>(WMT -0.44%), <strong>Amazon</strong>(AMZN -1.02%), and <strong>Costco Wholesale</strong>(COST -0.34%).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管如此，一些韌性強的零售商在這些挑戰中不斷適應和發展。我個人認為，其中三家長期贏家可以被歸類為 “常青” 股票，今天仍然值得購買：<strong>沃爾瑪</strong>(WMT -0.44%)、<strong>亞馬遜</strong>(AMZN -1.02%) 和 <strong>開市客</strong>(COST -0.34%)。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDcwNTgvdHdvLXBlb3BsZS1zaG9wcGluZy1pbi1hLXN1cGVybWFya2V0LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F807058%2Ftwo-people-shopping-in-a-supermarket.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>1. Walmart</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>1. 沃爾瑪</h2>
</div><p>Walmart operates more than 10,600 stores and warehouse clubs across the U.S., Mexico, China, and other overseas markets. It also owns other regional brick-and-mortar banners and e-commerce websites across 19 countries.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>沃爾瑪在美國、墨西哥、中國及其他海外市場運營着超過 10,600 家商店和倉儲俱樂部。它還在 19 個國家擁有其他地區性的實體店品牌和電子商務網站。</p>
</div><p>A decade ago, Walmart was struggling to keep pace with Amazon and other e-commerce challengers. But it stayed relevant by slowing down its brick-and-mortar expansion, renovating its existing stores, building customer relationships, and expanding its e-commerce and mobile platforms. It also matched Amazon's prices and fulfilled more online orders through its own stores.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>十年前，沃爾瑪在與亞馬遜及其他電子商務競爭者的競爭中苦苦掙扎。但它通過放緩實體店擴張、翻新現有商店、建立客户關係以及擴展電子商務和移動平台來保持相關性。它還與亞馬遜的價格持平，並通過自己的商店完成更多在線訂單。</p>
</div><p>From fiscal 2014 to 2024 (which ended in January 2024), Walmart increased its revenue at a steady compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3% -- even as the pandemic, inflation, and other macro headwinds rattled the global economy. From fiscal 2024 to 2027, analysts expect its revenue and earnings per share (EPS) to rise at CAGRs of 5% and 11%, respectively, as it automates more orders, expands its digital capabilities, and locks more shoppers into its premium Walmart+ subscriptions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>從 2014 財年到 2024 財年（截至 2024 年 1 月），沃爾瑪的收入以 3% 的穩定複合年增長率（CAGR）增長——即使在疫情、通貨膨脹和其他宏觀壓力擾動全球經濟的情況下。從 2024 財年到 2027 財年，分析師預計其收入和每股收益（EPS）將分別以 5% 和 11% 的 CAGR 增長，因為它自動化更多訂單，擴展數字能力，並將更多購物者鎖定在其高端的沃爾瑪 + 訂閲服務中。</p>
</div><p>Walmart's stock might not seem cheap at 37 times forward earnings, but its scale, diversification, and forward-thinking strategies support that higher valuation. That makes it an evergreen stock to buy and hold for the next few decades.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>沃爾瑪的股票在前瞻性市盈率為 37 倍時可能看起來並不便宜，但其規模、多樣化和前瞻性戰略支持了這一更高的估值。這使得它成為一個值得在未來幾十年內購買和持有的常青股票。</p>
</div><h2>2. Amazon</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>2. 亞馬遜</h2>
</div><p>Amazon didn't wipe out Walmart, but it drove many other big box retailers out of business during the &#34;retail apocalypse&#34; over the past 15 years. It's now the world's top e-commerce company with over 200 million Prime members. It also owns Whole Foods Market, offers digital streaming services, and locks in its users with a wide range of Alexa-powered hardware devices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>亞馬遜並沒有消滅沃爾瑪，但在過去 15 年的 “零售末日” 中，它使許多其他大型零售商破產。現在，它是全球最大的電子商務公司，擁有超過 2 億的 Prime 會員。它還擁有全食超市，提供數字流媒體服務，並通過各種 Alexa 驅動的硬件設備鎖定用户。</p>
</div><p>The e-commerce giant can afford to operate its first- and third-party marketplaces at thin margins because it actually generates most of its profits from its cloud infrastructure platform, Amazon Web Services (AWS).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這家電子商務巨頭能夠以微薄的利潤運營其第一方和第三方市場，因為它實際上從其雲基礎設施平台——亞馬遜網絡服務（AWS）中獲得了大部分利潤。</p>
</div><p>AWS is already the world's largest cloud platform, and it's growing even larger as more companies upgrade their cloud infrastructure to analyze more data and support the latest AI applications. That higher-margin cloud business usually subsidizes the expansion of Amazon's lower-margin retail businesses with loss-leading strategies to give it a major advantage against other brick-and-mortar retailers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>AWS 已經是全球最大的雲平台，隨着越來越多的公司升級其雲基礎設施以分析更多數據並支持最新的人工智能應用，它正在變得更大。這個高利潤的雲業務通常會補貼亞馬遜低利潤零售業務的擴展，通過虧損引導策略使其在其他實體零售商面前佔據重大優勢。</p>
</div><p>From 2014 to 2024, Amazon's revenue increased at a CAGR of 22% as it expanded through multiple economic downturns. From 2024 to 2026, analysts expect its revenue and EPS to grow at CAGRs of 10% and 17%, respectively, as the macro environment gradually stabilizes. It still doesn't look too expensive at 36 times forward earnings, and it's a rare evergreen play on the booming e-commerce, cloud, and AI markets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>從 2014 年到 2024 年，亞馬遜的收入以 22% 的 CAGR 增長，儘管經歷了多次經濟衰退。從 2024 年到 2026 年，分析師預計其收入和 EPS 將分別以 10% 和 17% 的 CAGR 增長，隨着宏觀環境逐漸穩定。以 36 倍的前瞻性市盈率來看，它仍然並不顯得過於昂貴，並且是一個在蓬勃發展的電子商務、雲計算和人工智能市場中的稀有常青投資。</p>
</div><h2>3. Costco</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>3. 開市客</h2>
</div><p>Costco is another retailer that held its ground against Amazon and Walmart. It locks its shoppers into sticky membership plans for its warehouse club stores, which offer attractive discounts for bulk purchases compared to traditional retailers. It subsidizes its sales of lower-margin products with its higher-margin membership fees.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>開市客是另一家在與亞馬遜和沃爾瑪的競爭中保持立足之地的零售商。它通過其倉儲俱樂部商店的粘性會員計劃鎖定購物者，相較於傳統零售商提供有吸引力的批量購買折扣。它用其高利潤的會員費來補貼低利潤產品的銷售。</p>
</div><p>As long as Costco opens new stores, gains new members, and maintains a high renewal rate, its core business will remain healthy. From fiscal 2014 (which ended in August 2014) to 2024, Costco expanded from 663 warehouses to 891 warehouses, it grew from 76,000 cardholders to 136,800 cardholders, and its global renewal rate grew from 87% to 90.5%. Its total revenue grew at a CAGR of 8% during those 10 years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>只要開市客繼續開設新店、吸引新會員並保持高續費率，其核心業務將保持健康。從 2014 財年（截至 2014 年 8 月）到 2024 財年，開市客從 663 家倉庫擴展到 891 家倉庫，會員人數從 76,000 人增長到 136,800 人，全球續費率從 87% 增長到 90.5%。在這 10 年中，其總收入以 8% 的 CAGR 增長。</p>
</div><p>From fiscal 2024 to 2027, analysts expect Costco's revenue and EPS to rise at CAGRs of 7% and 10%, respectively, as it continues to expand and lock in more shoppers. It isn't cheap at 52 times next year's earnings, but it will likely grow even larger over the next few decades as its evergreen flywheel keeps spinning in the right direction.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>從 2024 財年到 2027 財年，分析師預計開市客的收入和 EPS 將分別以 7% 和 10% 的 CAGR 增長，因為它繼續擴展並鎖定更多購物者。以 52 倍的明年收益來看，它並不便宜，但在未來幾十年內，隨着其常青飛輪持續向正確方向轉動，它可能會變得更大。</p>
</div>

3 Evergreen Retail Stocks to Buy Like There's No Tomorrow

- 零售商面臨宏觀和競爭壓力，但一些企業仍具韌性。  
- 沃爾瑪、亞馬遜和好市多被視為值得投資的 “常青” 股票。  
- 這三家公司在收入和會員增長方面展現出強勁的長期潛力。  

3 只值得立即買入的常青零售股票