<p>最近密切關注 <strong>亞馬遜</strong>(AMZN -1.65%) 的人肯定已經知道，該公司的第四季度雲計算收入未能達到分析師的預期，這標誌着其雲業務連續第二個季度未能達標。這一失望的結果，加上對當前季度的前景指引不佳，導致上週五股價暴跌，僅在兩天前股價創下歷史新高。投資者似乎擔心這家電子商務巨頭的雲業務不會再像幾個月前那樣被視為搖錢樹。</p>
<p>問題是，公眾可能是對的。<strong>亞馬遜網絡服務</strong>（AWS）不僅未能達到預期，而且正在失去雲計算市場份額。未來可能不可避免地會出現壓縮利潤率的折扣。</p>
<h2>不可否認的逆風</h2>
<p>正如下圖所示，亞馬遜網絡服務在全球雲收入中的份額自 2019 年以來穩步下降，上個季度降至 30% 的歷史低點。<strong>微軟</strong>(MSFT -0.58%) 和 <strong>Alphabet</strong> 的 (GOOG -0.88%)(GOOGL -0.92%) 谷歌是造成這一損失的主要原因，儘管像 CoreWeave、<strong>甲骨文</strong>(ORCL -2.81%) 和 <strong>Cloudflare</strong>(NET 0.16%) 等一系列較小的公司也突然強勁崛起。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDcwOTYvMDIwOTI1LWNsb3VkLWNvbXB1dGluZy1tYXJrZXQtc2hhcmUucG5nJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDcwOTYvMDIwOTI1LWNsb3VkLWNvbXB1dGluZy1tYXJrZXQtc2hhcmUucG5nJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>數據來源：Synergy Research Group。圖表由作者製作。</p>
<p>對於亞馬遜來説，這並不是世界末日——至少還不是。根據 Synergy Research Group 的數據，雲計算行業的總收入在 2024 年同比增長了 22%，並且在未來幾年內肯定會以類似的速度繼續增長。這對所有在該行業的公司都是一個有利的趨勢，包括那些正在失去市場份額的公司。</p>
<p>值得補充的是，亞馬遜網絡服務似乎並沒有面臨任何迫在眉睫的運營問題。AWS 的營業利潤率在經歷了 2022 年通脹低迷後，仍保持在約 37% 左右。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDcwOTYvMDIwOTI1LWF3cy1wcm9maXQtbWFyZ2luLXJhdGUucG5nJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDcwOTYvMDIwOTI1LWF3cy1wcm9maXQtbWFyZ2luLXJhdGUucG5nJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>數據來源：亞馬遜 圖表由作者製作。收入、利潤和成本數據以十億美元計。</p>
<p>不過，毫無疑問，隨着雲計算服務的商品化，獲得或重新獲得市場份額的最可行方法是提供更具競爭力（即 “更低”）的定價。或者提供一種成本更高的優質服務。無論哪種方式，未來不久我們可能會看到亞馬遜的雲利潤率開始縮小。</p>
<p>這很重要，因為雖然 AWS 僅佔亞馬遜總收入的 17%，但卻佔其總營業收入的 58%。</p>
<h2>謹慎的理由</h2>
<p>當然，亞馬遜有可能在不犧牲盈利能力的情況下重新贏得雲市場份額。任何事情都有可能。</p>
<p>然而，考慮到一些令人矚目的數據，這在目前並不是一個特別合理的希望。</p>
<p>簡單來説，在經歷了多年的價格上漲而沒有伴隨更多功能或附加功能後，雲客户的挫敗感顯而易見。最近對 500 多名雲計算專業人士的調查（由替代雲服務提供商 Civo 進行）顯示，37% 的受訪者認為雲計算未能兑現其在成本效益方面的初衷。同樣的比例甚至 “考慮轉向替代基礎設施”，例如建立自己的數據中心或尋找更符合他們獨特需求的選項，而不為他們不需要的選項付費。這包括取消與行業三大提供商之一——AWS、谷歌和微軟的計劃，並與一些較小的專業公司簽約，這些公司在上面的圖表中將被歸類為 “其他”。</p>
<p>也許正是這些雲計算巨頭的其餘部分描繪了 AWS 可能即將展開的價格戰的更為嚴峻的前景。Civo 的調查補充説，超過 80% 的企業現在正在仔細考慮他們的雲支出，但其中 40% 尚未採取任何實際的降本措施。一旦他們認真採取行動，預計亞馬遜的雲利潤率將面臨真正的壓力。</p>
<h2>亞馬遜投資者該怎麼辦？</h2>
<p>這還不是拋售亞馬遜股票的理由。即使是一個疲軟的亞馬遜，仍然比許多其他股票更具前景。還值得一提的是，亞馬遜的電子商務部門——儘管與 AWS 相比並不是巨大的利潤中心——現在的盈利能力越來越高，達到了歷史最高水平。亞馬遜股票的高估值在很大程度上是基於其雲計算業務的潛在利潤。然而，既然這種潛力受到質疑，股價可能會在市場重新思考該股票的價值時面臨掙扎。</p>
<p>換句話説，感興趣的投資者可能希望在財報發佈後的塵埃完全落定之前再進行投資。</p>

亞馬遜

<p>亞馬遜的雲計算收入連續第二個季度未能達到分析師的預期，導致股價下跌。AWS 正在失去市場份額，微軟和谷歌等競爭對手正在擴大影響力。儘管雲行業整體增長，但由於潛在的價格戰和客户不滿，AWS 可能面臨利潤壓力。最近的一項調查顯示，許多企業正在重新考慮其雲支出。儘管亞馬遜仍然是一個強勁的投資選擇，但圍繞 AWS 盈利能力的不確定性可能會影響其股票估值</p>

<p>Anyone keeping a close eye on <strong>Amazon</strong>(AMZN -1.65%) these days certainly already knows the company's fourth-quarter cloud computing revenue fell just short of analyst estimates, marking the second consecutive quarterly miss for its cloud arm. That disappointment paired with lackluster guidance for the quarter now underway sent shares tumbling on Friday last week, just two days after they reached a record high. Investors seem afraid that the e-commerce giant's cloud business isn't going to remain the cash cow it was believed to be just a few months ago.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最近密切關注 <strong>亞馬遜</strong>(AMZN -1.65%) 的人肯定已經知道，該公司的第四季度雲計算收入未能達到分析師的預期，這標誌着其雲業務連續第二個季度未能達標。這一失望的結果，加上對當前季度的前景指引不佳，導致上週五股價暴跌，僅在兩天前股價創下歷史新高。投資者似乎擔心這家電子商務巨頭的雲業務不會再像幾個月前那樣被視為搖錢樹。</p>
</div><p>The thing is, the crowd may be right. Not only is Amazon Web Services (AWS) now coming up short of expectations, but it's losing cloud computing market share as well. Margin-crimping discounts may be inevitable in the near future.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>問題是，公眾可能是對的。<strong>亞馬遜網絡服務</strong>（AWS）不僅未能達到預期，而且正在失去雲計算市場份額。未來可能不可避免地會出現壓縮利潤率的折扣。</p>
</div><h2>There's no denying the headwind now</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>不可否認的逆風</h2>
</div><p>As the chart below shows, Amazon Web Services' share of worldwide cloud revenue has been steadily dwindling since 2019, reaching a record low of 30% last quarter. <strong>Microsoft</strong>(MSFT -0.58%) and <strong>Alphabet</strong>'s (GOOG -0.88%)(GOOGL -0.92%) Google are responsible for most of this attrition, although a collective of smaller names like CoreWeave, <strong>Oracle</strong>(ORCL -2.81%), and <strong>Cloudflare</strong>(NET 0.16%) are suddenly coming on strong.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>正如下圖所示，亞馬遜網絡服務在全球雲收入中的份額自 2019 年以來穩步下降，上個季度降至 30% 的歷史低點。<strong>微軟</strong>(MSFT -0.58%) 和 <strong>Alphabet</strong> 的 (GOOG -0.88%)(GOOGL -0.92%) 谷歌是造成這一損失的主要原因，儘管像 CoreWeave、<strong>甲骨文</strong>(ORCL -2.81%) 和 <strong>Cloudflare</strong>(NET 0.16%) 等一系列較小的公司也突然強勁崛起。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDcwOTYvMDIwOTI1LWNsb3VkLWNvbXB1dGluZy1tYXJrZXQtc2hhcmUucG5nJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F807096%2F020925-cloud-computing-market-share.png&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Data source: Synergy Research Group. Chart by author.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>數據來源：Synergy Research Group。圖表由作者製作。</p>
</div><p>It's not the end of the world for Amazon -- at least not yet. The cloud computing industry's total revenue grew 22% year over year in 2024, according to Synergy Research Group, and will certainly continue growing at a similar pace for at least the next several years. That's enough tailwind to benefit all the names in the business including any that are losing market share.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>對於亞馬遜來説，這並不是世界末日——至少還不是。根據 Synergy Research Group 的數據，雲計算行業的總收入在 2024 年同比增長了 22%，並且在未來幾年內肯定會以類似的速度繼續增長。這對所有在該行業的公司都是一個有利的趨勢，包括那些正在失去市場份額的公司。</p>
</div><p>It's also worth adding that Amazon Web Services doesn't appear to be in any immediate operational trouble. AWS' operating profit margin rates remain around 37% after bouncing back from inflation-riddled 2022's lull.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>值得補充的是，亞馬遜網絡服務似乎並沒有面臨任何迫在眉睫的運營問題。AWS 的營業利潤率在經歷了 2022 年通脹低迷後，仍保持在約 37% 左右。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDcwOTYvMDIwOTI1LWF3cy1wcm9maXQtbWFyZ2luLXJhdGUucG5nJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F807096%2F020925-aws-profit-margin-rate.png&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Data source: Amazon Chart by author. Revenue, income, and cost figures are in billions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>數據來源：亞馬遜 圖表由作者製作。收入、利潤和成本數據以十億美元計。</p>
</div><p>Make no mistake though. Now that cloud computing services have become commoditized, the most viable way to gain or <em>re</em> gain market share is with more competitive (read &#34;lower&#34;) pricing. That, or a superior service that costs more to offer. Either way, don't be surprised to start seeing Amazon's cloud profit margin rates start shrinking in the foreseeable future.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不過，毫無疑問，隨着雲計算服務的商品化，獲得或重新獲得市場份額的最可行方法是提供更具競爭力（即 “更低”）的定價。或者提供一種成本更高的優質服務。無論哪種方式，未來不久我們可能會看到亞馬遜的雲利潤率開始縮小。</p>
</div><p>It matters simply because while AWS only makes up 17% of Amazon's top line, it accounts for 58% of its total operating income.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這很重要，因為雖然 AWS 僅佔亞馬遜總收入的 17%，但卻佔其總營業收入的 58%。</p>
</div><h2>Reason for caution</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>謹慎的理由</h2>
</div><p>Sure, it's possible Amazon could start winning cloud market share again without sacrificing profitability. Anything's possible.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>當然，亞馬遜有可能在不犧牲盈利能力的情況下重新贏得雲市場份額。任何事情都有可能。</p>
</div><p>That's not a particularly reasonable hope at this time, however, in light of some eye-popping data.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，考慮到一些令人矚目的數據，這在目前並不是一個特別合理的希望。</p>
</div><p>Simply put, after years of unchecked price increases not accompanied by more features or additional functionality, cloud customers are measurably frustrated. A recent survey of over 500 cloud computing professionals (performed by alternative cloud service provider Civo) indicates that 37% of this crowd feels the cloud hasn't lived up to its initial promise regarding cost-effectiveness. The same proportion is even &#34;considering a move to alternative infrastructures&#34; like building their own data centers or shopping around for options that better suit their unique needs without charging for options they don't need. This includes canceling plans with one of the industry's big three providers -- AWS, Google, and Microsoft -- and signing on with one of the smaller specialists that would qualify as an &#34;other&#34; on the chart above.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>簡單來説，在經歷了多年的價格上漲而沒有伴隨更多功能或附加功能後，雲客户的挫敗感顯而易見。最近對 500 多名雲計算專業人士的調查（由替代雲服務提供商 Civo 進行）顯示，37% 的受訪者認為雲計算未能兑現其在成本效益方面的初衷。同樣的比例甚至 “考慮轉向替代基礎設施”，例如建立自己的數據中心或尋找更符合他們獨特需求的選項，而不為他們不需要的選項付費。這包括取消與行業三大提供商之一——AWS、谷歌和微軟的計劃，並與一些較小的專業公司簽約，這些公司在上面的圖表中將被歸類為 “其他”。</p>
</div><p>It's perhaps the remainder of these cloud computing captains that paints an even more alarming picture of the looming price war AWS could soon be waging. Civo's survey adds that over 80% of all enterprises are now thinking quite carefully about their cloud spending, yet 40% of them have yet to take any actual cost-reducing action. Once they do so in earnest, expect Amazon's cloud margins to come under some real pressure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>也許正是這些雲計算巨頭的其餘部分描繪了 AWS 可能即將展開的價格戰的更為嚴峻的前景。Civo 的調查補充説，超過 80% 的企業現在正在仔細考慮他們的雲支出，但其中 40% 尚未採取任何實際的降本措施。一旦他們認真採取行動，預計亞馬遜的雲利潤率將面臨真正的壓力。</p>
</div><h2>What do Amazon investors do?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>亞馬遜投資者該怎麼辦？</h2>
</div><p>It's not yet a reason to shed your Amazon shares. Even a weakened Amazon is still a more promising prospect than plenty of other stocks. It also merits mentioning that Amazon's e-commerce arm -- while not enormous profit centers compared to AWS -- is increasingly more profitable now than it has ever been. Much of Amazon stock's rich valuation has been rooted in its cloud computing business's potential profits though. Now that this potential is in question, shares could struggle as the market rethinks what that ticker's worth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這還不是拋售亞馬遜股票的理由。即使是一個疲軟的亞馬遜，仍然比許多其他股票更具前景。還值得一提的是，亞馬遜的電子商務部門——儘管與 AWS 相比並不是巨大的利潤中心——現在的盈利能力越來越高，達到了歷史最高水平。亞馬遜股票的高估值在很大程度上是基於其雲計算業務的潛在利潤。然而，既然這種潛力受到質疑，股價可能會在市場重新思考該股票的價值時面臨掙扎。</p>
</div><p>In other words, interested investors might want to let the post-earnings dust fully settle before diving in.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>換句話説，感興趣的投資者可能希望在財報發佈後的塵埃完全落定之前再進行投資。</p>
</div>

Amazon's Cloud Miss May Be Even Worse Than You Think (but It Makes Sense)

- 亞馬遜第四季度雲計算收入未達預期，股價下跌。  
- AWS 市場份額持續下降，面臨價格競爭壓力。  
- 投資者需謹慎，等待市場反應後再考慮投資。

亞馬遜的雲計算業務表現不佳可能比你想象的還要糟糕（但這有其合理性）