<p>如果你在這個行業待得夠久，你會遇到一些波折。這對於 <strong>好時公司</strong>（HSY -0.98%）來説也是如此，該公司的歷史可以追溯到 19 世紀 90 年代。如今，該公司是全球最具標誌性的食品和飲料品牌之一。</p>
<p>該股從高峰下跌超過 40%，這令人震驚，因為整體股市正處於歷史高位。好時股票上一次如此大幅下跌是在 2008 年的全球經濟衰退期間。然而，這一次的問題在於公司本身。好時正面臨巨大的利潤壓力，以及對 GLP-1 激動劑（一種流行的減肥藥物）可能使消費者遠離甜食的擔憂。</p>
<p>我承認：乍一看並不美觀。但如果深入挖掘，這隻股票可能是華爾街上最好的交易之一。以下是投資者今天應該考慮購買好時並永遠持有的原因。</p>
<h2>好時是一隻受挫的股票，而不是一家受挫的企業</h2>
<p>正如我所説，好時目前正經歷危機。該公司最近完成了 2024 財年的報告，併發布了令人失望的 2025 年指導，預計每股收益為 6 美元到 6.18 美元，較 2024 年的 9.37 美元大幅下降。這家糖果巨頭將預期的下降歸因於更高的商品成本、重新調整的激勵薪酬和更高的税率。</p>
<p>並不是説好時沒有在銷售甜食；管理層預計 2025 年的收入增長為 2%。這一切都與（主要是）可可價格相關的基礎成本有關。你可以看到，可可價格在市場泡沫中像 meme 股票一樣暴漲：</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/16b9610c9777bcc3cc74f0be3e7c6a9e.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="720" height="441" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/16b9610c9777bcc3cc74f0be3e7c6a9e.png"/></p>
<p>YCharts 提供的可可豆價格數據</p>
<p>原因是什麼？全球約 70% 的可可來自西非。惡劣的天氣影響了作物產量，並擾亂了全球供應。好時通過提價來應對不斷上漲的成本，但這也有其極限。今年，好時將更加感受到高可可價格的衝擊。根據行業分析師的説法，除非生產進一步受到干擾，否則可可價格預計將在今年開始緩解。</p>
<p>減肥藥呢？目前，對此的擔憂似乎更像是虛張聲勢。好時的管理層在第四季度的財報電話會議上特別指出，未看到 GLP-1 激動劑對銷售產生任何實質性影響。事情恢復正常需要時間，但這一切都與好時無關。這是否不幸？當然。然而，這並不意味着好時是一家糟糕的企業。</p>
<h2>是的，好時是一家優質企業，且是經過驗證的複合增長者</h2>
<p>你永遠不想讓股價單獨決定你對一家企業的看法。股票會漲也會跌。然而，如果你購買並持有優質公司，它們應該會在長期內逐漸上漲。</p>
<p>好時是一家世界級公司，原因遠不止其知名的零食和糖果品牌，如 Reese's、Twizzlers、Almond Joy、Skinny Pop 等。該企業在經濟好壞中都蓬勃發展，成為消費者（主要是美國人）全年購買的文化主食。</p>
<p>該企業的盈利能力和效率也非常高。好時過去五年的投資資本回報率（ROIC）平均超過 21%。此外，每年每一美元的收入中有 0.15 到 0.20 美元產生自由現金流。因此，當你在資本運用上盈利且高效時，你並不需要巨大的增長來創造股東價值。</p>
<p>好時的股票近年來下滑；但在歷史上，它的表現超過了 <strong>標準普爾 500 指數</strong>。自 1989 年以來，股票回報超過 4200%，包括股票下跌 42%！正如我上面所説，好時目前的困境可能並不反映其業務，因此投資者可以對股票恢復到過去輝煌的表現持更樂觀的態度。</p>
<h2>而且它的價格是多年來最低的</h2>
<p>好時忠實地支付股息，管理層已連續 15 年提高股息。根據 2025 年的指導，該公司在技術上可以承擔其股息，儘管這將比最近的記憶更加緊張，因此投資者應考慮這一點。</p>
<p>也就是説，投資者可以通過股息收益來評估股息股票。你可以看到好時的股息收益率很少達到如此水平：</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/1cd9577d1342b7d67c4519b8dfd1faa0.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="720" height="441" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/1cd9577d1342b7d67c4519b8dfd1faa0.png"/></p>
<p>YCharts 提供的 HSY 股息收益率數據</p>
<p>這枚硬幣有兩面。從股息的角度來看，好時的股票是多年來最便宜的。同時，好時的股票風險也比最近的記憶更高。關鍵是投資者必須決定他們是否認為好時的問題會隨着時間的推移而消失。</p>
<p>如果是這樣，好時可能會在最終恢復到其歷史標準時產生巨大的投資回報。證據表明，隨着可可價格的緩解，好時將會反彈。當然，這可能需要時間。在此之前，好時仍然是一隻受傷的藍籌股，值得在多元化投資組合中冒險。</p>

好時

<p>好時的股票從峯值下跌了 42%，這歸因於利潤壓力和對減肥藥影響糖果銷售的擔憂。儘管 2025 年的前景充滿挑戰，預計每股收益將下降，但好時仍然是一家強勁的企業，擁有盈利歷史和穩健的分紅記錄。分析師建議可可價格可能會穩定，這可能有助於股票的恢復。考慮到其歷史表現和市場韌性，投資者被鼓勵將好時視為長期持有的選擇</p>

<p>If you've been around long enough, you will encounter some bumps in the road. This is true for <strong>The Hershey Company</strong>(HSY -0.98%), whose history dates back to the 1890s. The company is among the most iconic global food and beverage brands today.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果你在這個行業待得夠久，你會遇到一些波折。這對於 <strong>好時公司</strong>（HSY -0.98%）來説也是如此，該公司的歷史可以追溯到 19 世紀 90 年代。如今，該公司是全球最具標誌性的食品和飲料品牌之一。</p>
</div><p>The stock has fallen over 40% from its peak, which is shocking considering the broader stock market is at all-time highs. The last time Hershey's stock took a tumble this bad was during a global recession in 2008. However, this time it's about the company. Hershey is dealing with crushing margin pressure and fears that GLP-1 agonists, a popular weight loss drug, are turning consumers away from sweets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>該股從高峰下跌超過 40%，這令人震驚，因為整體股市正處於歷史高位。好時股票上一次如此大幅下跌是在 2008 年的全球經濟衰退期間。然而，這一次的問題在於公司本身。好時正面臨巨大的利潤壓力，以及對 GLP-1 激動劑（一種流行的減肥藥物）可能使消費者遠離甜食的擔憂。</p>
</div><p>I'll admit: It's not pretty at first glance. But if you dig deeper, the stock could be among the best deals on Wall Street. Here is why investors should consider buying Hershey today and holding it forever.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我承認：乍一看並不美觀。但如果深入挖掘，這隻股票可能是華爾街上最好的交易之一。以下是投資者今天應該考慮購買好時並永遠持有的原因。</p>
</div><h2>Hershey's a broken stock, not a broken business</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>好時是一隻受挫的股票，而不是一家受挫的企業</h2>
</div><p>As I said, Hershey is experiencing a crisis right now. The company recently completed its 2024 fiscal reporting and released woeful 2025 guidance, calling for earnings per share of $6 to $6.18, down significantly from $9.37 in 2024. The confectionery giant blamed the anticipated decline on higher commodity costs, rebased incentive compensation, and a higher tax rate.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>正如我所説，好時目前正經歷危機。該公司最近完成了 2024 財年的報告，併發布了令人失望的 2025 年指導，預計每股收益為 6 美元到 6.18 美元，較 2024 年的 9.37 美元大幅下降。這家糖果巨頭將預期的下降歸因於更高的商品成本、重新調整的激勵薪酬和更高的税率。</p>
</div><p>It's not that Hershey isn't selling sweets; management guided for 2% revenue growth for 2025. This is all about the underlying costs associated (primarily) with cocoa prices. You can see that cocoa prices have exploded like a meme stock in a market bubble:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>並不是説好時沒有在銷售甜食；管理層預計 2025 年的收入增長為 2%。這一切都與（主要是）可可價格相關的基礎成本有關。你可以看到，可可價格在市場泡沫中像 meme 股票一樣暴漲：</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/16b9610c9777bcc3cc74f0be3e7c6a9e.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/16b9610c9777bcc3cc74f0be3e7c6a9e.png"/></p>
<p>Cocoa Bean Price data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>YCharts 提供的可可豆價格數據</p>
</div><p>The reason? Roughly 70% of the world's cocoa comes from West Africa. Adverse weather has hurt crop yields and disrupted the global supply. Hershey has combated rising costs with price increases, but you can only do that so much. This year, Hershey will feel more of the brunt of high cocoa prices. According to industry analysts, cocoa prices should begin to ease this year, barring further disruptions to production.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>原因是什麼？全球約 70% 的可可來自西非。惡劣的天氣影響了作物產量，並擾亂了全球供應。好時通過提價來應對不斷上漲的成本，但這也有其極限。今年，好時將更加感受到高可可價格的衝擊。根據行業分析師的説法，除非生產進一步受到干擾，否則可可價格預計將在今年開始緩解。</p>
</div><p>What about weight loss drugs? Right now, fears seem more like bark than bite. Hershey's management noted specifically on its fourth-quarter earnings call that it's not seeing any material impact on sales due to GLP-1 agonists. It will take time for things to normalize again, but this is all external to Hershey. Is this unfortunate? Of course. However, it doesn't mean Hershey is a lousy business.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>減肥藥呢？目前，對此的擔憂似乎更像是虛張聲勢。好時的管理層在第四季度的財報電話會議上特別指出，未看到 GLP-1 激動劑對銷售產生任何實質性影響。事情恢復正常需要時間，但這一切都與好時無關。這是否不幸？當然。然而，這並不意味着好時是一家糟糕的企業。</p>
</div><h2>Yes, Hershey is a quality business and a proven compounder</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>是的，好時是一家優質企業，且是經過驗證的複合增長者</h2>
</div><p>You never want to let share prices alone dictate your view on a business. Stocks go up and down. However, if you buy and hold quality companies, they should drift higher over the long term.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>你永遠不想讓股價單獨決定你對一家企業的看法。股票會漲也會跌。然而，如果你購買並持有優質公司，它們應該會在長期內逐漸上漲。</p>
</div><p>Hershey is a world-class company for reasons far beyond its well-known snacks and candy brands, such as Reese's, Twizzlers, Almond Joy, Skinny Pop, and more. The business has thrived through good and bad economies, becoming a cultural staple consumers (primarily Americans) buy year-round.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>好時是一家世界級公司，原因遠不止其知名的零食和糖果品牌，如 Reese's、Twizzlers、Almond Joy、Skinny Pop 等。該企業在經濟好壞中都蓬勃發展，成為消費者（主要是美國人）全年購買的文化主食。</p>
</div><p>The business is also highly profitable and efficient. Hershey's return on invested capital (ROIC) has averaged over 21% over the past five years. Additionally, $0.15 to $0.20 of every revenue dollar generates free cash flow each year. Thus, you don't need tremendous growth to create shareholder value when you're profitable and efficient with your capital.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>該企業的盈利能力和效率也非常高。好時過去五年的投資資本回報率（ROIC）平均超過 21%。此外，每年每一美元的收入中有 0.15 到 0.20 美元產生自由現金流。因此，當你在資本運用上盈利且高效時，你並不需要巨大的增長來創造股東價值。</p>
</div><p>Hershey's stock has slumped in recent years; it has trounced the <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong> index throughout history. Shares have returned over 4,200% since 1989, including the stock's 42% drop! As I said above, Hershey's current woes likely don't reflect the business, so investors can be more optimistic about the stock reverting to its glorious winning ways of past years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>好時的股票近年來下滑；但在歷史上，它的表現超過了 <strong>標準普爾 500 指數</strong>。自 1989 年以來，股票回報超過 4200%，包括股票下跌 42%！正如我上面所説，好時目前的困境可能並不反映其業務，因此投資者可以對股票恢復到過去輝煌的表現持更樂觀的態度。</p>
</div><h2>And it happens to be the cheapest it's been in years</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>而且它的價格是多年來最低的</h2>
</div><p>Hershey faithfully pays a dividend, which management has increased annually for 15 consecutive years. The company can technically afford its dividend with guided 2025 earnings, though it will be much tighter than in recent memory, so investors should keep that in mind.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>好時忠實地支付股息，管理層已連續 15 年提高股息。根據 2025 年的指導，該公司在技術上可以承擔其股息，儘管這將比最近的記憶更加緊張，因此投資者應考慮這一點。</p>
</div><p>That said, investors can value a dividend stock by its yield. You can see that Hershey's dividend seldom yields this much:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>也就是説，投資者可以通過股息收益來評估股息股票。你可以看到好時的股息收益率很少達到如此水平：</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/1cd9577d1342b7d67c4519b8dfd1faa0.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/1cd9577d1342b7d67c4519b8dfd1faa0.png"/></p>
<p>HSY Dividend Yield data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>YCharts 提供的 HSY 股息收益率數據</p>
</div><p>There are two sides to the coin. Hershey's stock is the cheapest in years from the perspective of its dividend. At the same time, there's more risk in Hershey's stock than in recent memory. The key takeaway is that investors must decide whether they think Hershey's problems will disappear over time.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這枚硬幣有兩面。從股息的角度來看，好時的股票是多年來最便宜的。同時，好時的股票風險也比最近的記憶更高。關鍵是投資者必須決定他們是否認為好時的問題會隨着時間的推移而消失。</p>
</div><p>If so, Hershey could generate tremendous investment returns as it eventually reverts to its historical norms. The evidence suggests that Hershey will rebound as cocoa prices ease. Of course, that may take time. Until then, Hershey remains a wounded blue chip stock worth rolling the dice on in a diversified portfolio.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果是這樣，好時可能會在最終恢復到其歷史標準時產生巨大的投資回報。證據表明，隨着可可價格的緩解，好時將會反彈。當然，這可能需要時間。在此之前，好時仍然是一隻受傷的藍籌股，值得在多元化投資組合中冒險。</p>
</div>

一隻輝煌的標普 500 股息股票下跌 42%，值得長期買入和持有