<p>在 2024 年以股價的迅猛上漲結束後，<strong>特斯拉</strong>（TSLA -2.75%）自新年開始以來一直在下滑。該公司在 1 月 29 日公佈了財報，自那以來股價已下跌了多達 15%。截至 2025 年 2 月 14 日，股價在 2025 年已產生了 12% 的負回報。</p>
<p>雖然特斯拉核心電動車（EV）部門的銷售確實在放緩，但我認為還有一個更微妙的原因導致了此次拋售。接下來，我將探討我認為導致股價下跌的根本原因，並説明現在是買入的好機會。</p>
<h2>埃隆在華盛頓是否過於安逸？</h2>
<p>下圖展示了特斯拉股價從 10 月 1 日到 2 月 14 日的波動情況。你注意到了什麼嗎？</p>
<p>從 11 月初開始，特斯拉的股票經歷了一次史詩般的牛市，推動其在 2024 年結束時創下新高。推動股價在 2024 年最後幾週上漲的一個因素是唐納德·特朗普在總統選舉中的勝利。埃隆·馬斯克是當時候選人特朗普的堅定支持者，許多投資者簡單地認為他與總統的關係將對特斯拉的未來產生積極影響，尤其是在公司自駕車的雄心方面，可能會減少監管障礙。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/48af0a3e37cb27170ff748914a272feb.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/48af0a3e37cb27170ff748914a272feb.png"/></p>
<p>TSLA 數據來源於 YCharts。</p>
<p>特朗普總統在就職後成立了一個名為政府效率部（DOGE，簡稱）的組織，以識別聯邦預算中的過度支出。他邀請馬斯克來領導這一工作。</p>
<p>在過去一個月裏，馬斯克花了很多時間在白宮處理 DOGE 的事務，這讓一些投資者質疑他是否在失去對特斯拉這一主要優先事項的關注。在我看來，特斯拉股價的下跌與公司第四季度財報的乏善可陳關係不大，更多的是與首席執行官在華盛頓的時間有關。</p>
<h2>為什麼這次拋售被誇大了</h2>
<p>從表面上看，我可以理解投資者對馬斯克將過多時間分配給 DOGE 而不是全心投入特斯拉的擔憂。然而，認為他可能分心的論點有幾個缺陷。</p>
<p>首先，他是一位連續創業者，參與了多家成功企業的運營。除了特斯拉，他還是 SpaceX 的首席執行官，並創辦了多家價值十億美元的初創公司，包括正在開發可植入人腦芯片的 Neuralink；隧道建設公司 The Boring Company；以及人工智能專家 xAI。他還擁有社交媒體平台 X（前身為 Twitter），並擔任其執行主席。</p>
<p>所以馬斯克本身就是一個忙碌的人，而 DOGE 並沒有改變這一點。多年來，他一直參與多個複雜的業務，涵蓋太空探索、物流和人工智能，同時還在特斯拉掌舵。</p>
<p>我對認為他在華盛頓的時間可能是分心的另一個問題是，投資者似乎在兩個月前非常喜歡他與特朗普的關係（如上圖所示）。現在因為擔心馬斯克在華盛頓過於安逸而拋售特斯拉股票在某種程度上似乎是矛盾的。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDc4OTYvcGNiLXRyYWNlcy1vdmVyLWNhcGl0b2wtYnVpbGRpbmctMTk2MDk4NjQwMC5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDc4OTYvcGNiLXRyYWNlcy1vdmVyLWNhcGl0b2wtYnVpbGRpbmctMTk2MDk4NjQwMC5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>現在是買入特斯拉股票的好時機嗎？</h2>
<p>特斯拉的股票一直在傳統估值指標的範圍之外交易。近年來，該公司的銷售和利潤加速增長，與其他汽車製造商相比，特斯拉的股票交易在一個完全不同的宇宙中。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/3ca4c26a951819562c5e485b8494f37f.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/3ca4c26a951819562c5e485b8494f37f.png"/></p>
<p>TSLA PS 比率，數據來源於 YCharts；PS = 市值與銷售額比率。</p>
<p>我過去曾提出，特斯拉實際上是一家技術公司，恰好銷售汽車。它正在大力投資於自主駕駛車隊，並將其人工智能（AI）預算的一部分投入到 Optimus 人形機器人中，因此馬斯克對特斯拉的願景遠不止於電動車。</p>
<p>基於這些原因，我一直認為，僅僅依靠估值指標來驅動對特斯拉的投資決策是有些冒險的。在我看來，當前的拋售與公司的基本面並不相符。</p>
<p>公司的核心業務確實需要新的推動，但我認為在未來幾年內這是完全可能的，尤其是考慮到他與特朗普總統的關係。目前，我不會過於擔心馬斯克對 DOGE 的關注。如果你是一位長期投資者，我認為現在是利用特斯拉低股價的好機會。</p>

2 倍做多特斯拉 ETF - Direxion

特斯拉

<p>特斯拉的股票自 1 月 29 日的財報發佈以來下跌了 15%，2025 年的負回報率為 12%。此次拋售被歸因於人們對首席執行官埃隆·馬斯克在政府效率部（DOGE）角色上的關注，而非特斯拉。然而，認為馬斯克分心的觀點被認為是有缺陷的，因為他有管理多個成功企業的歷史。作者認為，目前的拋售與特斯拉的基本面脱節，並建議長期投資者現在是買入的好時機</p>

<p>After finishing 2024 with a meteoric rise in its share price, <strong>Tesla</strong>(TSLA -2.75%) has been sliding since the start of the new year. The company reported earnings on Jan. 29, and the stock has declined by as much as 15% since. So far, in 2025, the stock has generated a negative return of 12% (as of market close on Feb. 14).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2024 年以股價的迅猛上漲結束後，<strong>特斯拉</strong>（TSLA -2.75%）自新年開始以來一直在下滑。該公司在 1 月 29 日公佈了財報，自那以來股價已下跌了多達 15%。截至 2025 年 2 月 14 日，股價在 2025 年已產生了 12% 的負回報。</p>
</div><p>While it is true that sales in Tesla's core electric vehicle (EV) segment are decelerating, I think there is a more subtle reason for the sell-off. Below, I'm going to explore what I see as the root of the shares' decline and make the case for why now is a good opportunity to buy the dip.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>雖然特斯拉核心電動車（EV）部門的銷售確實在放緩，但我認為還有一個更微妙的原因導致了此次拋售。接下來，我將探討我認為導致股價下跌的根本原因，並説明現在是買入的好機會。</p>
</div><h2>Is Elon getting too comfy in Washington?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>埃隆在華盛頓是否過於安逸？</h2>
</div><p>The chart below illustrates the fluctuations in Tesla's share price from Oct. 1 through Feb. 14. Notice anything?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>下圖展示了特斯拉股價從 10 月 1 日到 2 月 14 日的波動情況。你注意到了什麼嗎？</p>
</div><p>Starting in early November, Tesla stock went on an epically bullish ride that propelled it to new all-time highs just as 2024 came to a close. One of the tailwinds that fueled the stock during the final weeks of 2024 was Donald Trump's win in the presidential election. Elon Musk was a big supporter of then-candidate Trump, and many investors simply assumed that his relationship with the president would bode well for Tesla's future -- especially as it relates to any regulatory hurdles for the company's ambitions with self-driving vehicles.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>從 11 月初開始，特斯拉的股票經歷了一次史詩般的牛市，推動其在 2024 年結束時創下新高。推動股價在 2024 年最後幾週上漲的一個因素是唐納德·特朗普在總統選舉中的勝利。埃隆·馬斯克是當時候選人特朗普的堅定支持者，許多投資者簡單地認為他與總統的關係將對特斯拉的未來產生積極影響，尤其是在公司自駕車的雄心方面，可能會減少監管障礙。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/48af0a3e37cb27170ff748914a272feb.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/48af0a3e37cb27170ff748914a272feb.png"/></p>
<p>TSLA data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>TSLA 數據來源於 YCharts。</p>
</div><p>Following his inauguration, President Trump created a group called the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE, for short) to identify excess spending in the federal budget. And he tapped Musk to lead this effort.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特朗普總統在就職後成立了一個名為政府效率部（DOGE，簡稱）的組織，以識別聯邦預算中的過度支出。他邀請馬斯克來領導這一工作。</p>
</div><p>Over the last month, Musk has spent a lot of time at the White House working on the DOGE effort, leading some investors to question if he's losing focus on what should be his main priority, Tesla. In my opinion, the sell-off in Tesla stock has less to do with the company's uninspiring fourth-quarter earnings report and more to do with the CEO's time in Washington.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在過去一個月裏，馬斯克花了很多時間在白宮處理 DOGE 的事務，這讓一些投資者質疑他是否在失去對特斯拉這一主要優先事項的關注。在我看來，特斯拉股價的下跌與公司第四季度財報的乏善可陳關係不大，更多的是與首席執行官在華盛頓的時間有關。</p>
</div><h2>Why this sell-off is overblown</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>為什麼這次拋售被誇大了</h2>
</div><p>On the surface, I can understand if investors are wary that Musk is allocating too much of his time to DOGE as opposed to dedicating every moment to Tesla. However, the argument that he may be distracted is flawed for a couple of reasons.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>從表面上看，我可以理解投資者對馬斯克將過多時間分配給 DOGE 而不是全心投入特斯拉的擔憂。然而，認為他可能分心的論點有幾個缺陷。</p>
</div><p>First, he is a serial entrepreneur who has been at the center of a number of successful businesses. Beyond Tesla, he is the CEO of SpaceX and founded a number of billion-dollar start-ups including Neuralink, which is developing chips that are implantable in human brains; The Boring Company, a tunnel builder; and xAI, an artificial intelligence specialist. He also owns social media platform X (formerly Twitter) and is its executive chairman.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>首先，他是一位連續創業者，參與了多家成功企業的運營。除了特斯拉，他還是 SpaceX 的首席執行官，並創辦了多家價值十億美元的初創公司，包括正在開發可植入人腦芯片的 Neuralink；隧道建設公司 The Boring Company；以及人工智能專家 xAI。他還擁有社交媒體平台 X（前身為 Twitter），並擔任其執行主席。</p>
</div><p>So Musk is a busy person in the first place, and DOGE doesn't really change that. For years, he has been involved with a number of sophisticated businesses spanning space exploration, logistics, and AI -- all while running the show at Tesla.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>所以馬斯克本身就是一個忙碌的人，而 DOGE 並沒有改變這一點。多年來，他一直參與多個複雜的業務，涵蓋太空探索、物流和人工智能，同時還在特斯拉掌舵。</p>
</div><p>My other issue with the view that his time in Washington may be a distraction is that investors seemed to love his relationship with Trump just two months ago (as depicted in the chart above). Selling Tesla stock now because you're nervous that Musk may be getting too cozy in Washington seems contradictory in some ways.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我對認為他在華盛頓的時間可能是分心的另一個問題是，投資者似乎在兩個月前非常喜歡他與特朗普的關係（如上圖所示）。現在因為擔心馬斯克在華盛頓過於安逸而拋售特斯拉股票在某種程度上似乎是矛盾的。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDc4OTYvcGNiLXRyYWNlcy1vdmVyLWNhcGl0b2wtYnVpbGRpbmctMTk2MDk4NjQwMC5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F807896%2Fpcb-traces-over-capitol-building-1960986400.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Is now a good time to buy Tesla stock?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>現在是買入特斯拉股票的好時機嗎？</h2>
</div><p>Tesla is a stock that has always traded out of the bounds of traditional valuation metrics. The company has accelerated sales and profits in recent years, and the stock trades in an entirely different universe when compared to other automakers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特斯拉的股票一直在傳統估值指標的範圍之外交易。近年來，該公司的銷售和利潤加速增長，與其他汽車製造商相比，特斯拉的股票交易在一個完全不同的宇宙中。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/3ca4c26a951819562c5e485b8494f37f.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/3ca4c26a951819562c5e485b8494f37f.png"/></p>
<p>TSLA PS ratio, data by YCharts; PS = price to sales.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>TSLA PS 比率，數據來源於 YCharts；PS = 市值與銷售額比率。</p>
</div><p>I've made the case in the past that Tesla is really a technology company that happens to sell cars. It's investing heavily in an autonomous vehicle fleet as well as dedicating a good portion of its artificial intelligence (AI) budget to Optimus humanoid robots, so Musk has a vision for Tesla well beyond EVs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我過去曾提出，特斯拉實際上是一家技術公司，恰好銷售汽車。它正在大力投資於自主駕駛車隊，並將其人工智能（AI）預算的一部分投入到 Optimus 人形機器人中，因此馬斯克對特斯拉的願景遠不止於電動車。</p>
</div><p>For these reasons, I've always thought that it's a little dicey driving your investment decision in Tesla based purely on valuation metrics. To me, the ongoing sell-off is disconnected from the fundamentals of the business.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>基於這些原因，我一直認為，僅僅依靠估值指標來驅動對特斯拉的投資決策是有些冒險的。在我看來，當前的拋售與公司的基本面並不相符。</p>
</div><p>The core operations of the company do need a new jump-start, but I think this is quite possible over the next several years, especially given his relationship with President Trump. For now, I wouldn't worry too much about Musk's focus on DOGE. If you're an investor with a long-term horizon, I think now is a good opportunity to take advantage of Tesla's low stock price.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>公司的核心業務確實需要新的推動，但我認為在未來幾年內這是完全可能的，尤其是考慮到他與特朗普總統的關係。目前，我不會過於擔心馬斯克對 DOGE 的關注。如果你是一位長期投資者，我認為現在是利用特斯拉低股價的好機會。</p>
</div>

Tesla Stock Is Spiraling. Here's Why This Sell-Off Is Different

- 特斯拉股價自 2024 年大幅上漲後，2025 年初下滑 15%。  
- 投資者對馬斯克在華盛頓的時間分配表示擔憂，認為可能影響特斯拉。  
- 文章認為當前是買入特斯拉股票的良機，因其基本面仍具潛力。

特斯拉股票正在急劇下跌。這次拋售為何與眾不同