<p>在過去的幾年裏，半導體股票成為市場最新的 megatrend——人工智能（AI）的最大受益者之一。特別是向數據中心供應圖形處理單元（GPU）的 <strong>Nvidia</strong> 和 <strong>Broadcom</strong> 相較於 <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong> 和 <strong>Nasdaq Composite</strong> 的表現，獲得了異常高的收益。</p>
<p>然而，在背景中，代工專家 <strong>台積電</strong>（TSM -0.42%）——也稱為 TSMC——悄然崛起，成為芯片領域的領導者。最棒的是？這隻股票仍然非常便宜。以下是我認為台積電將在未來 10 年內成為表現最佳的芯片股票的原因。</p>
<h2>為什麼台積電看起來準備蓬勃發展</h2>
<p>數據中心的 GPU 是推動各種令人興奮的生成式 AI 應用的重要硬件。從這個意義上講，像 Nvidia、Broadcom 和 <strong>Advanced Micro Devices</strong> 這樣的公司在訓練大型語言模型（LLM）或機器學習等用例方面都應被視為領導者。</p>
<p>然而，您可能不知道的是，這些公司都在很大程度上依賴台積電來實際製造他們的芯片。台積電專注於代工服務，為許多不同的半導體供應商製造芯片組，這些供應商的用例涵蓋計算、移動設備、雲基礎設施等多個領域。</p>
<p>雖然這為台積電當前的情況提供了依據，但未來的前景更讓我感到興奮。根據 Precedence Research 的數據，預計到 2034 年，AI 芯片的總可尋址市場（TAM）將接近 1 萬億美元——大約是其當前估計規模的 10 倍。</p>
<p>當您還考慮到像 <strong>Amazon</strong>、<strong>Alphabet</strong> 和 <strong>Microsoft</strong> 這樣的雲超大規模公司預計在 2025 年僅在芯片上的支出將超過 2000 億美元時，我認為 AI 芯片市場在未來幾年將呈指數級擴張的可能性越來越大。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/910401e6993e7c9652ecb7c05d72a079.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/910401e6993e7c9652ecb7c05d72a079.png"/></p>
<p>TSM 收入（季度）數據來自 YCharts。</p>
<p>這裏需要理解的觀點是，Nvidia 及其同行對芯片的激增需求對台積電特別有利，因為該公司深深嵌入了許多領先半導體公司的生態系統中。為了強調台積電對其他芯片公司的重要性，考慮到它佔據了超過 60% 的芯片製造市場——絕對壓倒了 <strong>Intel</strong> 和三星等競爭對手。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDc5MDEvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTM3MzI0NDEyNS5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDc5MDEvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTM3MzI0NDEyNS5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>為什麼我認為台積電將產生比 Nvidia 更高的回報</h2>
<p>下圖展示了過去幾年 Nvidia 和台積電的股價回報。雖然台積電的股票產生了超越市場的回報，但與 Nvidia 投資者所經歷的情況相比，差距仍然很大。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/59694616c60fec140df08d07b2223363.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/59694616c60fec140df08d07b2223363.png"/></p>
<p>TSM 數據來自 YCharts。</p>
<p>儘管預計 AI 芯片市場將繼續增長，但我認為來自 AMD 和超大規模雲服務提供商使用的定製硅供應商的競爭將成為 Nvidia 在未來幾年面臨的阻力。相比之下，台積電處於一個實際上可以從芯片領域競爭加劇中受益的位置。</p>
<p>因此，我實際上認為台積電的收入和盈利加速將繼續上升。儘管如此，台積電的前瞻市盈率（P/E）為 22.6——與 S&amp;P 500 的前瞻市盈率平均水平 20.9 非常接近。</p>
<p>在我看來，台積電正處於一個有利可圖的位置，可以繼續擴大其在代工行業的影響力。芯片市場的增長，加上 AI 領域競爭的加劇，讓我對投資台積電能夠在長期內產生優於 S&amp;P 500 的回報充滿信心。</p>
<p>然而，我認為台積電的股票尚未迎來它的 &#34;Nvidia 時刻&#34;。基於所有這些原因，我認為這隻股票是一個顯而易見的機會，價格便宜。具有長期投資視野的投資者可能想考慮現在就購買台積電的股票並緊緊持有。</p>

英偉達財報，一站看懂！

台積電

<p>台灣半導體制造公司（TSMC）預計將在未來十年成為表現最佳的芯片股票，儘管英偉達在人工智能芯片市場中佔據重要地位。作為代工服務的領導者，TSMC 對主要半導體公司至關重要，並預計將受益於對人工智能芯片日益增長的需求，該需求預計到 2034 年將接近 1 萬億美元。TSMC 的前瞻市盈率接近標準普爾 500 指數的平均水平，為長期投資者提供了一個引人注目的投資機會，因為它在芯片行業競爭加劇的情況下處於良好的發展位置</p>

<p>Over the last couple of years, semiconductor stocks have been some of the biggest beneficiaries of the market's newest megatrend, artificial intelligence (AI). In particular, suppliers of graphics processing units (GPUs) to data centers such as <strong>Nvidia</strong> and <strong>Broadcom</strong> have witnessed abnormally high gains relative to those seen across the <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong> and <strong>Nasdaq Composite</strong>.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在過去的幾年裏，半導體股票成為市場最新的 megatrend——人工智能（AI）的最大受益者之一。特別是向數據中心供應圖形處理單元（GPU）的 <strong>Nvidia</strong> 和 <strong>Broadcom</strong> 相較於 <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong> 和 <strong>Nasdaq Composite</strong> 的表現，獲得了異常高的收益。</p>
</div><p>In the background, however, foundry specialist <strong>Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing</strong>(TSM -0.42%) -- known as TSMC -- has quietly emerged as a leader in the chip space in its own right. The best part? The stock is still dirt cheap. Here's why I think Taiwan Semi will turn out to be the top-performing chip stock over the next 10 years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，在背景中，代工專家 <strong>台積電</strong>（TSM -0.42%）——也稱為 TSMC——悄然崛起，成為芯片領域的領導者。最棒的是？這隻股票仍然非常便宜。以下是我認為台積電將在未來 10 年內成為表現最佳的芯片股票的原因。</p>
</div><h2>Why TSMC looks primed to thrive</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>為什麼台積電看起來準備蓬勃發展</h2>
</div><p>Data center GPUs are important pieces of hardware powering all sorts of exciting generative AI applications. In this sense, companies such as Nvidia, Broadcom, and <strong>Advanced Micro Devices</strong> should all be considered leaders when it comes to use cases such as training large language models (LLMs) or machine learning.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>數據中心的 GPU 是推動各種令人興奮的生成式 AI 應用的重要硬件。從這個意義上講，像 Nvidia、Broadcom 和 <strong>Advanced Micro Devices</strong> 這樣的公司在訓練大型語言模型（LLM）或機器學習等用例方面都應被視為領導者。</p>
</div><p>What you may not know, however, is that each of these companies relies heavily on Taiwan Semi to actually manufacture their chipware. TSMC specializes in foundry services, making chipsets for many different semiconductor providers that span use cases across computing, mobile devices, cloud infrastructure, and more.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，您可能不知道的是，這些公司都在很大程度上依賴台積電來實際製造他們的芯片。台積電專注於代工服務，為許多不同的半導體供應商製造芯片組，這些供應商的用例涵蓋計算、移動設備、雲基礎設施等多個領域。</p>
</div><p>While this makes the case for Taiwan Semi's current picture, it's the future prospects that have more even more intrigued. According to Precedence Research, the total addressable market (TAM) for AI chips is expected to reach nearly $1 trillion by 2034 -- roughly 10 times its current estimated size.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>雖然這為台積電當前的情況提供了依據，但未來的前景更讓我感到興奮。根據 Precedence Research 的數據，預計到 2034 年，AI 芯片的總可尋址市場（TAM）將接近 1 萬億美元——大約是其當前估計規模的 10 倍。</p>
</div><p>When you also consider that cloud hyperscalers such as <strong>Amazon</strong>, <strong>Alphabet</strong>, and <strong>Microsoft</strong> are all expected to spend north of $200 billion on chips just in 2025, I think it becomes increasingly feasible that the AI chip market will be expanding exponentially over the next several years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>當您還考慮到像 <strong>Amazon</strong>、<strong>Alphabet</strong> 和 <strong>Microsoft</strong> 這樣的雲超大規模公司預計在 2025 年僅在芯片上的支出將超過 2000 億美元時，我認為 AI 芯片市場在未來幾年將呈指數級擴張的可能性越來越大。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/910401e6993e7c9652ecb7c05d72a079.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/910401e6993e7c9652ecb7c05d72a079.png"/></p>
<p>TSM Revenue (Quarterly) data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>TSM 收入（季度）數據來自 YCharts。</p>
</div><p>The idea to understand here is that surging demand for chips from Nvidia and its peers bodes particularly well for Taiwan Semi, since the company is deeply embedded in the ecosystems of many leading semiconductor companies. Just to emphasize how important TSMC is for other chip companies, consider that it accounts for more than 60% of the chip manufacturing market -- absolutely trouncing competitors such as <strong>Intel</strong> and Samsung.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這裏需要理解的觀點是，Nvidia 及其同行對芯片的激增需求對台積電特別有利，因為該公司深深嵌入了許多領先半導體公司的生態系統中。為了強調台積電對其他芯片公司的重要性，考慮到它佔據了超過 60% 的芯片製造市場——絕對壓倒了 <strong>Intel</strong> 和三星等競爭對手。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDc5MDEvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTM3MzI0NDEyNS5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F807901%2Fgettyimages-1373244125.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Why I think TSMC will generate higher returns than Nvidia</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>為什麼我認為台積電將產生比 Nvidia 更高的回報</h2>
</div><p>The chart below illustrates the share price returns between Nvidia and TSMC over the last couple of years. While Taiwan Semi stock has produced market-beating returns, it's not even close to what Nvidia investors have experienced.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>下圖展示了過去幾年 Nvidia 和台積電的股價回報。雖然台積電的股票產生了超越市場的回報，但與 Nvidia 投資者所經歷的情況相比，差距仍然很大。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/59694616c60fec140df08d07b2223363.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/59694616c60fec140df08d07b2223363.png"/></p>
<p>TSM data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>TSM 數據來自 YCharts。</p>
</div><p>Even though the AI chip market is projected to continue growing, I think increased competition from AMD and custom silicon providers used by the hyperscalers will become a headwind for Nvidia in the next few years. In contrast, Taiwan Semi is in a position to actually benefit from rising competition in the chip space.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管預計 AI 芯片市場將繼續增長，但我認為來自 AMD 和超大規模雲服務提供商使用的定製硅供應商的競爭將成為 Nvidia 在未來幾年面臨的阻力。相比之下，台積電處於一個實際上可以從芯片領域競爭加劇中受益的位置。</p>
</div><p>For this reason, I actually think TSMC's revenue and earnings acceleration will continue climbing. Nevertheless, TSMC is trading at a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of 22.6 -- quite close to the average forward P/E of the S&amp;P 500, which sits at 20.9.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，我實際上認為台積電的收入和盈利加速將繼續上升。儘管如此，台積電的前瞻市盈率（P/E）為 22.6——與 S&amp;P 500 的前瞻市盈率平均水平 20.9 非常接近。</p>
</div><p>In my eyes, TSMC is sitting in a lucrative position to continue expanding its reach in the foundry industry. The growing market for chips, underscored by rising competition in the AI realm, has me bullish that an investment in Taiwan Semi will indeed produce superior returns to the S&amp;P 500 in the long run.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在我看來，台積電正處於一個有利可圖的位置，可以繼續擴大其在代工行業的影響力。芯片市場的增長，加上 AI 領域競爭的加劇，讓我對投資台積電能夠在長期內產生優於 S&amp;P 500 的回報充滿信心。</p>
</div><p>However, I think TSMC stock is yet to have its &#34;Nvidia moment,&#34; so to speak. For all these reasons, I think the stock is a no-brainer opportunity, trading for a bargain. Investors with a long-term time horizon may want to consider scooping up shares of TSMC right now and holding on tightly.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，我認為台積電的股票尚未迎來它的 &#34;Nvidia 時刻&#34;。基於所有這些原因，我認為這隻股票是一個顯而易見的機會，價格便宜。具有長期投資視野的投資者可能想考慮現在就購買台積電的股票並緊緊持有。</p>
</div>

Prediction: This Will Be the Top-Performing Chip Stock Over the Next 10 Years (Hint: It's Not Nvidia)

- 半導體股在人工智能浪潮中獲益，尤其是 GPU 供應商如 Nvidia 和 Broadcom。  
- 台灣半導體制造公司（TSMC）在芯片製造領域嶄露頭角，市場份額超過 60%。  
- 預計 AI 芯片市場到 2034 年將達近 1 萬億美元，TSMC 有望實現更高回報。  

預測：未來十年，這隻芯片股票將表現最佳（提示：不是 Nvidia）