<p>前馬吉蘭基金經理彼得·林奇一直提倡購買你所瞭解的東西。林奇在他的投資生涯中通過這樣做取得了巨大的成功。</p>
<p>他的建議是我持有 <strong>亞馬遜</strong>（AMZN -2.83%）股票的原因之一。我們家每週都會收到多次從亞馬遜訂購的產品。我每天都在我的 Kindle 設備上閲讀書籍。我常去的許多網站都託管在亞馬遜網絡服務（AWS）上。而亞馬遜的虛擬助手 Alexa 幾乎是家裏的成員。</p>
<p>我認為亞馬遜是幾乎任何投資者投資組合中的一個很好的補充。但是，今天購買亞馬遜股票是否能讓你終身受益呢？</p>
<h2>過去看起來很有前景</h2>
<p>如果我們問購買亞馬遜股票是否能讓你在過去終身受益，答案將是一個響亮的 “是”。林奇在他的暢銷書《華爾街的贏家》中寫到了 “十倍股”，即能夠帶來 10 倍回報的股票。亞馬遜的這種收益看起來微不足道。自公司在 1997 年 5 月進行首次公開募股（IPO）以來，其股價已經飆升了超過 2255 倍。</p>
<p>讓我們用美元來説明這一表現，以幫助理解它是多麼令人印象深刻。如果你在亞馬遜股票開始公開交易後投資了 10,000 美元，並且從未賣出，你的投資今天將價值大約 2250 萬美元。我稱之為終身受益。</p>
<p>然而，你並不需要在亞馬遜剛開始時就投資才能成為大贏家。如果你在 2005 年 2 月才購買了 10,000 美元的公司股票，那時亞馬遜已經成功，市值超過 140 億美元？你今天仍然會是百萬富翁，你的持倉價值將增長到大約 125 萬美元。</p>
<p>當然，持有這些亞馬遜股票對我們大多數人來説是很困難的。股票在此過程中經歷了多次大幅回調。多年前的一些巨大收益可能會誘使許多投資者出售並獲利。但在過去購買並持有亞馬遜股票無疑是積累財富的好方法。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/d95066562217eb5bee703b3f1a6be798.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/d95066562217eb5bee703b3f1a6be798.png"/></p>
<p>AMZN 數據來源於 YCharts</p>
<h2>太大，太晚？</h2>
<p>亞馬遜輝煌的歷史是否意味着該股票在未來會帶來類似的收益？當然不是。</p>
<p>任何在亞馬遜首次公開募股時投資的人都是在對一家面臨大量競爭的未驗證公司進行賭博。如果你在 2005 年初購買了該股票，AWS 的推出還要一年多。</p>
<p>今天，亞馬遜的市值超過 2.3 萬億美元。該公司主導着電子商務市場。AWS 在雲服務市場中佔據最大的市場份額。儘管亞馬遜仍然秉持創始人傑夫·貝索斯所灌輸的 “今天是第一天” 的理念，但事實是，對於公司來説，已經不再是第一天。</p>
<p>可以強烈認為，現在投資亞馬遜可能已經太晚，因為該公司實在是太大了。對於像亞馬遜這樣的大公司來説，識別能夠顯著推動增長的機會變得更加困難。</p>
<h2>支持亞馬遜的兩個論點</h2>
<p>然而，我並不排除現在購買亞馬遜股票可能讓你終身受益的可能性。在我看來，有兩個論點特別支持亞馬遜。</p>
<p>首先，AWS 仍然具有巨大的增長潛力。人工智能，尤其是生成式人工智能，繼續為業務提供巨大的助力。亞馬遜首席執行官安迪·賈西認為，全球 IT 支出將在未來 10 到 15 年內從目前約 85% 的本地支出轉向大約同樣比例的雲支出。AWS 將成為這一趨勢的主要受益者。</p>
<p>其次，全球零售銷售中仍有 80% 到 85% 是在實體店進行的。賈西預測，這一動態將在未來 10 到 20 年內發生逆轉，電子商務將佔據零售市場的主要份額。如果他是對的，亞馬遜的核心電子商務業務應該會顯著增長。</p>
<p>即使有這兩個機會，今天投資 10,000 美元在亞馬遜上可能也無法讓你終身受益。然而，我認為購買該股票仍然可以讓你在長期內賺取大量財富。</p>

亞馬遜

<p>前麥哲倫基金經理彼得·林奇提倡投資於熟悉的公司，以亞馬遜為典型例子。自 1997 年上市以來，亞馬遜的股票上漲了超過 2255 倍，將 1 萬美元的投資轉變為今天約 2250 萬美元。儘管過去的表現表明了巨大的潛力，但由於亞馬遜的規模，未來增長的擔憂也隨之而來。然而，AWS 和電子商務增長中的機會仍可能使亞馬遜成為值得投資的對象，儘管這並不保證會帶來改變人生的回報</p>

<p>Former Magellan Fund manager Peter Lynch has always promoted buying what you know. Lynch achieved tremendous success during his investing career doing just that.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>前馬吉蘭基金經理彼得·林奇一直提倡購買你所瞭解的東西。林奇在他的投資生涯中通過這樣做取得了巨大的成功。</p>
</div><p>His advice is one of the reasons I own shares of <strong>Amazon</strong>(AMZN -2.83%). Our household receives products ordered from Amazon multiple times each week. I read books on my Kindle device every day. Many of the websites I frequent are hosted on Amazon Web Services (AWS). And Alexa, Amazon's virtual assistant, is practically a member of the family.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他的建議是我持有 <strong>亞馬遜</strong>（AMZN -2.83%）股票的原因之一。我們家每週都會收到多次從亞馬遜訂購的產品。我每天都在我的 Kindle 設備上閲讀書籍。我常去的許多網站都託管在亞馬遜網絡服務（AWS）上。而亞馬遜的虛擬助手 Alexa 幾乎是家裏的成員。</p>
</div><p>I think Amazon is a great addition to nearly any investor's portfolio. But could buying Amazon stock today set you up for life?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我認為亞馬遜是幾乎任何投資者投資組合中的一個很好的補充。但是，今天購買亞馬遜股票是否能讓你終身受益呢？</p>
</div><h2>The past looks promising</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>過去看起來很有前景</h2>
</div><p>If we were asking whether buying Amazon stock could have set you up for life in the past, the answer would be a resounding &#34;yes.&#34; Lynch wrote about &#34;10-bagger&#34; stocks that deliver 10x returns in his best-selling book <em>One Up on Wall Street</em>. Amazon makes such gains look puny. Since the company conducted its initial public offering (IPO) in May 1997, its share price has skyrocketed by <em>more than 2,255x</em>.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果我們問購買亞馬遜股票是否能讓你在過去終身受益，答案將是一個響亮的 “是”。林奇在他的暢銷書《華爾街的贏家》中寫到了 “十倍股”，即能夠帶來 10 倍回報的股票。亞馬遜的這種收益看起來微不足道。自公司在 1997 年 5 月進行首次公開募股（IPO）以來，其股價已經飆升了超過 2255 倍。</p>
</div><p>Let's put that performance in terms of dollars to help understand just how impressive it is. If you invested $10,000 in Amazon after its shares began trading publicly and never sold, your investment would be worth roughly $22.5 million today. I'd call that being set up for life.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>讓我們用美元來説明這一表現，以幫助理解它是多麼令人印象深刻。如果你在亞馬遜股票開始公開交易後投資了 10,000 美元，並且從未賣出，你的投資今天將價值大約 2250 萬美元。我稱之為終身受益。</p>
</div><p>However, you wouldn't have had to invest in Amazon at the very beginning to be a big winner. What if you didn't buy $10,000 of the company's shares until February 2005, when Amazon was already successful and sported a market cap of over $14 billion? You'd still be a millionaire today, with your position growing in value to around $1.25 million.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，你並不需要在亞馬遜剛開始時就投資才能成為大贏家。如果你在 2005 年 2 月才購買了 10,000 美元的公司股票，那時亞馬遜已經成功，市值超過 140 億美元？你今天仍然會是百萬富翁，你的持倉價值將增長到大約 125 萬美元。</p>
</div><p>Granted, holding on to those Amazon shares would have been hard to do for most of us. The stock experienced multiple massive drawdowns along the way. Some of the tremendous gains years ago could have tempted many investors to sell and take profits. But buying and holding Amazon stock in the past has definitely been a great way to amass a fortune.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>當然，持有這些亞馬遜股票對我們大多數人來説是很困難的。股票在此過程中經歷了多次大幅回調。多年前的一些巨大收益可能會誘使許多投資者出售並獲利。但在過去購買並持有亞馬遜股票無疑是積累財富的好方法。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/d95066562217eb5bee703b3f1a6be798.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/d95066562217eb5bee703b3f1a6be798.png"/></p>
<p>AMZN data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>AMZN 數據來源於 YCharts</p>
</div><h2>Too big, too late?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>太大，太晚？</h2>
</div><p>Does Amazon's spectacular history mean the stock will deliver similar gains in the future? Of course not.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>亞馬遜輝煌的歷史是否意味着該股票在未來會帶來類似的收益？當然不是。</p>
</div><p>Anyone who invested in Amazon at its IPO was making a wager on an unproven company facing lots of competition in the e-commerce space. If you bought the stock in early 2005, AWS was still over a year away from being launched.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>任何在亞馬遜首次公開募股時投資的人都是在對一家面臨大量競爭的未驗證公司進行賭博。如果你在 2005 年初購買了該股票，AWS 的推出還要一年多。</p>
</div><p>Amazon's market cap tops $2.3 trillion today. The company dominates the e-commerce market. AWS claims the largest market share in the cloud services market. Although Amazon still subscribes to the &#34;it's day one&#34; philosophy instilled by founder Jeff Bezos, the truth is that it's no longer day one for the company.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今天，亞馬遜的市值超過 2.3 萬億美元。該公司主導着電子商務市場。AWS 在雲服務市場中佔據最大的市場份額。儘管亞馬遜仍然秉持創始人傑夫·貝索斯所灌輸的 “今天是第一天” 的理念，但事實是，對於公司來説，已經不再是第一天。</p>
</div><p>There's a strong case to be made that it's too late for Amazon to be an investment that will set you up for life because the company is simply too big. It's harder for a company as large as Amazon to identify growth opportunities that will move the needle significantly.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>可以強烈認為，現在投資亞馬遜可能已經太晚，因為該公司實在是太大了。對於像亞馬遜這樣的大公司來説，識別能夠顯著推動增長的機會變得更加困難。</p>
</div><h2>Two arguments in favor of Amazon</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>支持亞馬遜的兩個論點</h2>
</div><p>However, I wouldn't rule out the possibility that buying Amazon stock now might set you up for life. Two arguments especially work in Amazon's favor, in my opinion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，我並不排除現在購買亞馬遜股票可能讓你終身受益的可能性。在我看來，有兩個論點特別支持亞馬遜。</p>
</div><p>First, AWS still has tremendous growth potential. Artificial intelligence, especially generative AI, continues to provide a massive tailwind for the business. Amazon CEO Andy Jassy believes that global IT spending will shift from around 85% on-premises today to roughly that percentage in the cloud within the next 10 to 15 years. AWS stands to be a primary beneficiary of this trend.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>首先，AWS 仍然具有巨大的增長潛力。人工智能，尤其是生成式人工智能，繼續為業務提供巨大的助力。亞馬遜首席執行官安迪·賈西認為，全球 IT 支出將在未來 10 到 15 年內從目前約 85% 的本地支出轉向大約同樣比例的雲支出。AWS 將成為這一趨勢的主要受益者。</p>
</div><p>Second, between 80% and 85% of global retail sales are still made in brick-and-mortar stores. Jassy predicts this dynamic will flip, with e-commerce making up the lion's share of the retail market in the next 10 to 20 years. If he's right, Amazon's core e-commerce business should grow significantly.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>其次，全球零售銷售中仍有 80% 到 85% 是在實體店進行的。賈西預測，這一動態將在未來 10 到 20 年內發生逆轉，電子商務將佔據零售市場的主要份額。如果他是對的，亞馬遜的核心電子商務業務應該會顯著增長。</p>
</div><p>Even with these two opportunities, investing $10,000 in Amazon today might not set you up for life. However, I think buying the stock could still make you a lot of money over the long term.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>即使有這兩個機會，今天投資 10,000 美元在亞馬遜上可能也無法讓你終身受益。然而，我認為購買該股票仍然可以讓你在長期內賺取大量財富。</p>
</div>

Could Buying Amazon Stock Today Set You Up for Life?

- 彼得·林奇提倡購買熟悉的公司，亞馬遜是一個不錯的投資選擇。  
- 自 1997 年上市以來，亞馬遜股價上漲超過 2255 倍，投資 1 萬美元現值約 2250 萬美元。  
- 儘管亞馬遜面臨競爭，但 AWS 和電商市場的增長潛力仍然存在。  

今天購買亞馬遜股票能讓你一生受益嗎？