<p>儘管近期股市波動加劇，華爾街主要股指——<strong>道瓊斯工業平均指數</strong>、<strong>標準普爾 500 指數</strong> 和 <strong>納斯達克綜合指數</strong>——自 2022 年 10 月觸底以來幾乎勢不可擋。</p>
<p>推動這三大指數屢創新高的牛市反彈是由多種因素共同促成的。這包括對唐納德·特朗普重返白宮的興奮（在特朗普的第一任期內，股市飆升）、股票拆分的狂熱以及超出預期的企業盈利。但在股市催化劑的首位，人工智能（AI）的出現無疑是最重要的。</p>
<p>人工智能賦予軟件和系統推理、行動和進化的能力，而無需人類干預。這種在指定任務上變得更高效以及隨着時間推移學習新技能的能力，使得這項技術具有驚人的影響力和幾乎無法估量的可尋址市場。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDk1NTYvc2lsdmVyLWRpY2UtYnV5LXNlbGwtc3RvY2stY2hhcnQtdm9sdW1lLWJpbGxpb25haXJlLWdldHR5LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDk1NTYvc2lsdmVyLWRpY2UtYnV5LXNlbGwtc3RvY2stY2hhcnQtdm9sdW1lLWJpbGxpb25haXJlLWdldHR5LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<p>儘管有數十隻股票受益於人工智能的崛起，但沒有哪兩家公司比半導體巨頭 <strong>英偉達</strong>（NVDA -8.69%）和數據挖掘專家 <strong>Palantir Technologies</strong>（PLTR -1.77%）更直接受益。在各自的高峰期，英偉達在不到兩年的時間裏市值增加了超過 3 萬億美元，而 Palantir 的股票在過去兩年中上漲了超過 1500%。</p>
<p>雖然這兩家公司的運營結果顯示出巨大的潛力，但英偉達和 Palantir 的內部交易活動卻發出了強烈的信號。</p>
<h2>英偉達和 Palantir 的內部人士向投資者發出潛在的強烈警告</h2>
<p>得益於互聯網，股市比以往任何時候都更加自由和公平。無論你是華爾街的專業人士，還是將第一筆 500 美元投入股市的普通投資者，你都可以輕鬆訪問收入報表、資產負債表和投資者演示文稿。</p>
<p>投資者還可以輕鬆獲取的另一項信息是內部交易活動，這有時能講述一個引人注目的故事。這裏所説的 “內部人士” 主要是指高層管理人員和公司的董事會成員——即那些最瞭解公司表現好壞的人——但也包括持有公司 10%（或更高）股份的受益所有者。</p>
<p>上市公司的內部人士必須在交易後不超過兩個工作日內向證券交易委員會提交 4 號表格。換句話説，如果管理團隊或董事會的某位成員購買或出售其公司的股票，投資者將相對迅速地得知這一消息。</p>
<p>英偉達和 Palantir Technologies 的內部人士通過他們的交易活動發出了強烈的警告——投資者是時候更加關注了。</p>
<p>截至 2025 年 2 月底的過去五年中，內部人士出售了超過 38 億美元的英偉達股票，自 2020 年 9 月首次公開募股以來，Palantir 的累計銷售額接近 69 億美元。</p>
<p>更令人矚目的是，自 Palantir 上市以來，沒有一位董事或高管購買過該公司的股票。與此同時，英偉達內部人士的最後一次公開市場購買來自首席財務官科萊特·克雷斯，時間是 2020 年 12 月。</p>
<p>公平地説，內部人士的出售並不一定是壞事。高管薪酬有時會嚴重依賴於基於股票的補償。在這種情況下，內部人士行使期權和/或出售普通股以籌集支付聯邦/州税款所需的資金。</p>
<p>但儘管有多種理由出售上市公司的股票，購買股票的唯一合理理由是：投資者相信價格將會上漲。Palantir 管理團隊和董事會完全沒有內部購買的跡象，以及英偉達內部人士超過四年的公開市場購買缺失，充分説明了這兩家人工智能領軍企業的現狀。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDk1NTYvaW52ZXN0b3ItcHJlc3Npbmctc2VsbC1idXR0b24tZ2V0dHkuanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDk1NTYvaW52ZXN0b3ItcHJlc3Npbmctc2VsbC1idXR0b24tZ2V0dHkuanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>為什麼英偉達和 Palantir 的內部人士拒絕進行公開市場購買？</h2>
<p>如果投資於這些公司的股東有任何好消息，那就是有明確證據表明股票期權驅動了至少部分的出售活動。期權需要在到期之前行使，出售股票是內部人士籌集資金以支付税款的簡單方式。這種類型的出售是無害的，不應該讓華爾街或普通投資者感到擔憂。</p>
<p>或許更緊迫的問題是，為什麼內部人士不進行公開市場購買？</p>
<p>一種可能性是，歷史並不支持在擴張初期的下一個重大創新。儘管英偉達的 Hopper（H100）和 Blackwell 圖形處理單元（GPU）的訂單異常強勁，Palantir 的 AI 驅動的 Gotham 平台也持續贏得美國政府的多年合同，但過去三十年沒有任何顛覆性創新能夠避免泡沫破裂事件。</p>
<p>換句話説，投資者通常會高估潛在顛覆性技術和創新的初始採用率和主流實用性。無論英偉達和 Palantir 迄今為止的收入增長多麼令人印象深刻，所有創新，包括人工智能，都需要足夠的時間來成熟。</p>
<p>當對下一個重大趨勢的高期望未能實現時，領先的公司往往受到最嚴重的打擊。如果人工智能泡沫破裂，正如歷史所示，英偉達和 Palantir 的股價可能會顯著下跌。</p>
<p>英偉達和 Palantir 面臨的另一個主要問題是各自的估值。</p>
<p>儘管傳統的市盈率（P/E）是大多數投資者用來判斷價值的快速簡便工具，但對於像英偉達和 Palantir 這樣的高增長公司來説，它並不特別有效。相反，市銷率（P/S）則顯示出英偉達和 Palantir 的相對估值與歷史標準的差距有多大。</p>
<p>去年夏天，英偉達的過去 12 個月市銷率一度超過 42。至於 Palantir，其最近股價飆升至每股 125 美元，使其市銷率接近 100！歷史上，處於下一個重大趨勢前沿的上市公司通常在市銷率達到 30 到 40 的水平時達到頂峯。簡而言之，這兩家公司似乎都沒有提供可持續的估值溢價。</p>
<p>英偉達和 Palantir Technologies 的內部人士發出了警告，但是否有投資者願意傾聽？</p>

英偉達

PLTR

<p>英偉達和 Palantir 的內部交易活動引發了投資者的擔憂，因為內部人士分別出售了超過 38 億美元和 69 億美元的股票，而近期沒有任何購買。這一趨勢表明，儘管這兩家公司受益於人工智能的繁榮，但對未來股票表現缺乏信心。雖然內部人士的出售可能與基於股票的薪酬有關，但高管缺乏公開市場購買的情況值得注意。投資者不禁質疑這種不願意購買股票的原因，尤其是在英偉達產品需求強勁和 Palantir 政府合同的背景下</p>

<p>Despite some recent volatility in equities, Wall Street's major stock indexes -- the <strong>Dow Jones Industrial Average</strong>, <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong>, and <strong>Nasdaq Composite</strong> -- have been virtually unstoppable since bottoming out in October 2022.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管近期股市波動加劇，華爾街主要股指——<strong>道瓊斯工業平均指數</strong>、<strong>標準普爾 500 指數</strong> 和 <strong>納斯達克綜合指數</strong>——自 2022 年 10 月觸底以來幾乎勢不可擋。</p>
</div><p>The bull market rally that's led all three indexes to numerous record-closing highs has been fueled by a confluence of factors. This includes excitement surrounding Donald Trump's return to the White House (stocks soared during Trump's first term), stock-split euphoria, and better-than-expected corporate earnings. But at the tippy-top of the list of stock market catalysts is the emergence of artificial intelligence (AI).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>推動這三大指數屢創新高的牛市反彈是由多種因素共同促成的。這包括對唐納德·特朗普重返白宮的興奮（在特朗普的第一任期內，股市飆升）、股票拆分的狂熱以及超出預期的企業盈利。但在股市催化劑的首位，人工智能（AI）的出現無疑是最重要的。</p>
</div><p>AI empowers software and systems with the ability to reason, act, and evolve, without the need for human intervention. This capacity to become more proficient at assigned tasks, as well as evolve to learn new skills over time, gives this technology jaw-dropping reach and an almost unfathomable addressable market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>人工智能賦予軟件和系統推理、行動和進化的能力，而無需人類干預。這種在指定任務上變得更高效以及隨着時間推移學習新技能的能力，使得這項技術具有驚人的影響力和幾乎無法估量的可尋址市場。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDk1NTYvc2lsdmVyLWRpY2UtYnV5LXNlbGwtc3RvY2stY2hhcnQtdm9sdW1lLWJpbGxpb25haXJlLWdldHR5LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F809556%2Fsilver-dice-buy-sell-stock-chart-volume-billionaire-getty.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><p>Although dozens of stocks have benefited from the rise of AI, no two companies have been more direct beneficiaries than semiconductor colossus <strong>Nvidia</strong>(NVDA -8.69%) and data-mining specialist <strong>Palantir Technologies</strong>(PLTR -1.77%). At their respective peaks, Nvidia tacked on well over $3 trillion in market cap in under two years, while Palantir's stock jumped more than 1,500% on a trailing-two-year basis.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管有數十隻股票受益於人工智能的崛起，但沒有哪兩家公司比半導體巨頭 <strong>英偉達</strong>（NVDA -8.69%）和數據挖掘專家 <strong>Palantir Technologies</strong>（PLTR -1.77%）更直接受益。在各自的高峰期，英偉達在不到兩年的時間裏市值增加了超過 3 萬億美元，而 Palantir 的股票在過去兩年中上漲了超過 1500%。</p>
</div><p>While the operating results for both companies suggest plenty of promise, insider activity for Nvidia and Palantir speaks volumes.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>雖然這兩家公司的運營結果顯示出巨大的潛力，但英偉達和 Palantir 的內部交易活動卻發出了強烈的信號。</p>
</div><h2>Insiders at Nvidia and Palantir offer a potentially deafening warning to investors</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>英偉達和 Palantir 的內部人士向投資者發出潛在的強烈警告</h2>
</div><p>Thanks to the internet, the stock market is freer and fairer than it's ever been. Whether you're a Wall Street professional or an everyday investor putting your first $500 to work in the stock market, you have the ability to access income statements, balance sheets, and investor presentations at the click of a button.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>得益於互聯網，股市比以往任何時候都更加自由和公平。無論你是華爾街的專業人士，還是將第一筆 500 美元投入股市的普通投資者，你都可以輕鬆訪問收入報表、資產負債表和投資者演示文稿。</p>
</div><p>Something else that's readily available to investors, and can, on occasion, tell quite the story is insider trading activity. By &#34;insiders,&#34; I'm primarily referring to high-ranking executives and a company's board of directors -- i.e., the people who would intimately know how well or poorly a company is performing -- but it also includes beneficial owners with a 10% (or greater) stake in a company.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投資者還可以輕鬆獲取的另一項信息是內部交易活動，這有時能講述一個引人注目的故事。這裏所説的 “內部人士” 主要是指高層管理人員和公司的董事會成員——即那些最瞭解公司表現好壞的人——但也包括持有公司 10%（或更高）股份的受益所有者。</p>
</div><p>Insiders of a publicly traded company are required to file Form 4 with the Securities and Exchange Commission no later than two business days after a transaction. In other words, if someone on a management team or board acquires or disposes of their company's stock, investors are going to know about it relatively quickly.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>上市公司的內部人士必須在交易後不超過兩個工作日內向證券交易委員會提交 4 號表格。換句話説，如果管理團隊或董事會的某位成員購買或出售其公司的股票，投資者將相對迅速地得知這一消息。</p>
</div><p>The insiders at Nvidia and Palantir Technologies have been creating a deafening roar with their trading activity -- and it's time investors paid closer attention.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英偉達和 Palantir Technologies 的內部人士通過他們的交易活動發出了強烈的警告——投資者是時候更加關注了。</p>
</div><p>Over the trailing-five-year period, as of the end of February 2025, insiders sold more than $3.8 billion worth of Nvidia stock, and are closing in on $6.9 billion in cumulative sales of Palantir stock since its September 2020 initial public offering.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至 2025 年 2 月底的過去五年中，內部人士出售了超過 38 億美元的英偉達股票，自 2020 年 9 月首次公開募股以來，Palantir 的累計銷售額接近 69 億美元。</p>
</div><p>What's even more eye-popping is that there hasn't been a single director or executive who's purchased shares of Palantir since it went public. Meanwhile, the last open-market purchase from an Nvidia insider came from Chief Financial Officer Colette Kress in December 2020.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>更令人矚目的是，自 Palantir 上市以來，沒有一位董事或高管購買過該公司的股票。與此同時，英偉達內部人士的最後一次公開市場購買來自首席財務官科萊特·克雷斯，時間是 2020 年 12 月。</p>
</div><p>To be fair, insider selling isn't automatically a bad thing. Executive pay can sometimes be heavily weighted to stock-based compensation. In instances like this, insiders exercise options and/or sell common stock to raise the capital needed to pay their federal/state tax bill.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>公平地説，內部人士的出售並不一定是壞事。高管薪酬有時會嚴重依賴於基於股票的補償。在這種情況下，內部人士行使期權和/或出售普通股以籌集支付聯邦/州税款所需的資金。</p>
</div><p>But while there are a multitude of reasons to sell shares of a public company, there's only one viable reason to buy stock: an investor believes the price will head higher. A complete lack of insider buying from Palantir's management team and board of directors, along with a greater-than-four-year absence of open-market purchases from Nvidia's insiders, speaks volumes for both AI leaders.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但儘管有多種理由出售上市公司的股票，購買股票的唯一合理理由是：投資者相信價格將會上漲。Palantir 管理團隊和董事會完全沒有內部購買的跡象，以及英偉達內部人士超過四年的公開市場購買缺失，充分説明了這兩家人工智能領軍企業的現狀。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDk1NTYvaW52ZXN0b3ItcHJlc3Npbmctc2VsbC1idXR0b24tZ2V0dHkuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F809556%2Finvestor-pressing-sell-button-getty.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Why are Nvidia's and Palantir's insiders refusing to make open-market purchases?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>為什麼英偉達和 Palantir 的內部人士拒絕進行公開市場購買？</h2>
</div><p>If there's a silver lining for shareholders invested in these companies, it's that there's clear evidence of stock options driving at least some of this selling activity. Options need to be exercised prior to their expiration, and selling shares is an easy way for insiders to raise the capital necessary to foot their tax bill. This type of selling is benign and shouldn't concern Wall Street or everyday investors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果投資於這些公司的股東有任何好消息，那就是有明確證據表明股票期權驅動了至少部分的出售活動。期權需要在到期之前行使，出售股票是內部人士籌集資金以支付税款的簡單方式。這種類型的出售是無害的，不應該讓華爾街或普通投資者感到擔憂。</p>
</div><p>Perhaps the more pressing question to address is why aren't insiders making open-market purchases?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>或許更緊迫的問題是，為什麼內部人士不進行公開市場購買？</p>
</div><p>One possibility is that history doesn't favor next-big-thing innovations during the early innings of their expansion. While orders for Nvidia's Hopper (H100) and Blackwell graphics processing units (GPUs) have been exceptionally strong, and Palantir's AI-driven Gotham platform has consistently won multiyear contracts from the U.S. government, no game-changing innovation has avoided a bubble-bursting event for three decades.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一種可能性是，歷史並不支持在擴張初期的下一個重大創新。儘管英偉達的 Hopper（H100）和 Blackwell 圖形處理單元（GPU）的訂單異常強勁，Palantir 的 AI 驅動的 Gotham 平台也持續贏得美國政府的多年合同，但過去三十年沒有任何顛覆性創新能夠避免泡沫破裂事件。</p>
</div><p>Put another way, investors commonly overestimate the initial adoption rate and mainstream utility of potentially game-changing technologies and innovations. Regardless of how impressive the revenue ramp has been for Nvidia and Palantir to this point, all innovations, including AI, need ample time to mature.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>換句話説，投資者通常會高估潛在顛覆性技術和創新的初始採用率和主流實用性。無論英偉達和 Palantir 迄今為止的收入增長多麼令人印象深刻，所有創新，包括人工智能，都需要足夠的時間來成熟。</p>
</div><p>When lofty expectations for next-big-thing trends aren't met, the companies that led the charge tend to be hit the hardest. If the AI bubble bursts, as history suggests will happen, Nvidia and Palantir could see their respective share prices head notably lower.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>當對下一個重大趨勢的高期望未能實現時，領先的公司往往受到最嚴重的打擊。如果人工智能泡沫破裂，正如歷史所示，英偉達和 Palantir 的股價可能會顯著下跌。</p>
</div><p>The other prevailing issue for Nvidia and Palantir is their respective valuations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英偉達和 Palantir 面臨的另一個主要問題是各自的估值。</p>
</div><p>Though the traditional price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is the quick-and-easy tool relied on by most investors to judge value, it doesn't work particularly well for high-growth companies like Nvidia and Palantir. Instead, the price-to-sales (P/S) ratio demonstrates just how far outside of historic norms Nvidia's and Palantir's relative valuations have been.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管傳統的市盈率（P/E）是大多數投資者用來判斷價值的快速簡便工具，但對於像英偉達和 Palantir 這樣的高增長公司來説，它並不特別有效。相反，市銷率（P/S）則顯示出英偉達和 Palantir 的相對估值與歷史標準的差距有多大。</p>
</div><p>Last summer, Nvidia's trailing-12-month P/S ratio briefly tipped the scales at north of 42. As for Palantir, it's recent run-up to $125 per share put its P/S ratio on the doorstep of 100! Throughout history, public companies on the leading edge of a next-big-thing trend have commonly peaked with a P/S ratio in the neighborhood of 30 to 40. In short, neither company appears to offer a sustainable valuation premium.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>去年夏天，英偉達的過去 12 個月市銷率一度超過 42。至於 Palantir，其最近股價飆升至每股 125 美元，使其市銷率接近 100！歷史上，處於下一個重大趨勢前沿的上市公司通常在市銷率達到 30 到 40 的水平時達到頂峯。簡而言之，這兩家公司似乎都沒有提供可持續的估值溢價。</p>
</div><p>Insiders at Nvidia and Palantir Technologies are sounding a warning, but are any investors willing to listen?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英偉達和 Palantir Technologies 的內部人士發出了警告，但是否有投資者願意傾聽？</p>
</div>

Insider Activity at Nvidia and Palantir Speaks Volumes -- but Are Investors Willing to Listen?

- 華爾街主要股指自 2022 年 10 月以來持續上漲，受多重因素推動。  
- Nvidia 和 Palantir 的內部人士在過去五年內大量拋售股票，未見買入。  
- 若 AI 泡沫破裂，兩家公司股價可能顯著下跌，估值也超出歷史正常水平。  

英偉達和 Palantir Tech 的內部活動説明了很多問題——但投資者願意傾聽嗎？