<p><strong>英偉達</strong>（NVDA 1.69%）2025 財年第四季度（截至 2025 年 1 月 26 日）的財報上週震撼了市場，週四主要指數出現拋售，隨後週五反彈。</p>
<p>截至 3 月 2 日，英偉達年初至今下跌 7%，表現不及 <strong>標準普爾 500</strong> 指數（^GSPC -1.22%）的 1.2% 漲幅。考慮到英偉達在 2023 年至 2024 年底之間增長超過 800%，投資者可能會覺得增長股的回調是自然而然的。但有很多原因表明，英偉達的估值比其股價圖表所暗示的要便宜得多。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDk2Mjkvc3VycHJpc2Utc21hcnRwaG9uZS1uZXdzLXN0b2NrLXNob2NrLTEyMDB4ODAwLTViMmRmNzkuanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDk2Mjkvc3VycHJpc2Utc21hcnRwaG9uZS1uZXdzLXN0b2NrLXNob2NrLTEyMDB4ODAwLTViMmRmNzkuanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>英偉達的估值已下降</h2>
<p>市盈率（P/E）是一個眾所周知的財務指標，它將股票價格與每股收益（EPS）相除。市盈率顯示了投資者為公司相對於其收益所支付的倍數。市盈率越高，基於過去收益，股票就越昂貴。</p>
<p>市盈率在分析具有一致商業模式和穩定增長率的公司時非常有用，尤其是像 <strong>蘋果</strong>、<strong>微軟</strong>、<strong>家得寶</strong>、<strong>可口可樂</strong> 等藍籌公司。但對於尚未盈利、盈利不穩定或正在經歷重大轉型的公司（如英偉達），這一指標的實用性就會降低。</p>
<p>英偉達的股價近年來大幅上漲，但其收益也隨之增加。該公司的增長速度如此之快，以至於其估值實際上變得更便宜。尤其是在過去九個月左右，因為英偉達的股價基本保持不變，而其收益卻持續飆升。</p>
<p>英偉達的市盈率已降至 42.5——這可能看起來很高，因為標準普爾 500 的市盈率為 29.8。但由於英偉達的收益仍在快速增長，其前瞻市盈率（基於分析師對未來 12 個月的共識預期）僅為 27.8——這意味着如果英偉達的股價在一年內沒有變動，並且達到了預期，其估值將與標準普爾 500 相當。</p>
<h2>爆炸性增長</h2>
<p>英偉達在很大程度上依賴於向 <strong>亞馬遜</strong>、微軟、<strong>谷歌母公司</strong> 和 <strong>Meta Platforms</strong> 等超大規模客户銷售圖形處理單元（GPU）。這一最新發展導致英偉達的銷售、營業收入和利潤率呈指數級增長。</p>
<p>正如下表所示，英偉達的收入在五年內幾乎增長了八倍，但營業收入增長超過 18 倍。</p>
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>指標</th>
<th>2021 財年</th>
<th>2022 財年</th>
<th>2023 財年</th>
<th>2024 財年</th>
<th>2025 財年</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>收入（十億美元）</td>
<td>$16.7</td>
<td>$26.9</td>
<td>$27</td>
<td>$60.9</td>
<td>$130.5</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>營業收入（十億美元）</td>
<td>$4.5</td>
<td>$10</td>
<td>$5.6</td>
<td>$33</td>
<td>$81.5</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>淨收入（十億美元）</td>
<td>$4.3</td>
<td>$9.8</td>
<td>$4.4</td>
<td>$29.8</td>
<td>$72.9</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>利潤率</td>
<td>26%</td>
<td>36.2%</td>
<td>16.2%</td>
<td>48.9%</td>
<td>55.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>稀釋每股收益</td>
<td>$0.17</td>
<td>$0.39</td>
<td>$0.17</td>
<td>$1.19</td>
<td>$2.94</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>數據來源：英偉達，YCharts。</p>
<p>在 2025 財年，英偉達將每美元收入中超過 55 美分轉化為淨收入——這一令人難以置信的利潤率在如此規模的公司中實屬罕見。</p>
<p>幾乎任何股票在公司每年收入和收益翻倍或三倍時都是便宜的。但當半導體行業出現週期性放緩時會發生什麼？或者如果英偉達的一些最大客户減少資本支出？或者如果運行復雜人工智能（AI）模型所需的計算能力減少，導致 GPU 需求下降？或者如果競爭對手以更低的成本提出強有力的解決方案，從而侵蝕英偉達的利潤率？</p>
<p>每個企業都面臨不確定性。英偉達當然也有其風險。但它也有很多機會。引用英偉達首席執行官黃仁勳在最近的財報電話會議上的話：</p>
<blockquote>
<p>像 OpenAI、Grok 3、DeepSeek-R1 這樣的模型是應用推理時間縮放的推理模型。推理模型可以消耗 100 倍的計算能力。未來的推理模型可能會消耗更多的計算能力。DeepSeek-R1 點燃了全球的熱情。這是一個出色的創新。但更重要的是，它開源了一個世界級的推理 AI 模型。</p>
</blockquote>
<p>總之，英偉達對像 DeepSeek 這樣的新推理模型感到鼓舞，而不是受到威脅。英偉達對 AI 在數字世界之外擴展到機器人、物理 AI 開發、自動駕駛汽車等領域的潛力非常樂觀。總的來説，英偉達未來可能會減少對超大規模客户的依賴。</p>
<h2>收益增長對估值的影響</h2>
<p>購買英偉達股票是對不同終端市場和使用案例中持續 AI 採用的押注。隨着時間的推移，英偉達的增長率和利潤率可能會下降，因為 AI 行業變得更加成熟，並且因為快速增長一個龐大企業比一個小企業更困難。</p>
<p>但即使英偉達的收益增長在未來 10 年放緩至 15% 的年複合增長率，股票仍然是一個極好的買入機會。作為參考，分析師共識預期英偉達在 2026 財年每股收益將增長至$4.49，在 2027 財年將增長至$5.72——分別為 52.7% 和 27.3% 的增長率。因此，收益增長在短期內不太可能放緩至每年 20%。</p>
<p>不過，讓我們假設 10 年內的收益增長率為 20%。假設你只想以 25 倍的市盈率購買該股票。在這些假設下，股票價格將會是什麼樣子。作為參考，英偉達在撰寫本文時的股價為$124.81。</p>
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>指標</th>
<th>財政 2025</th>
<th>財政 2026</th>
<th>財政 2027</th>
<th>財政 2028</th>
<th>財政 2029</th>
<th>財政 2030</th>
<th>財政 2031</th>
<th>財政 2032</th>
<th>財政 2033</th>
<th>財政 2034</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>每股收益 (EPS)</td>
<td>$2.94</td>
<td>$3.53</td>
<td>$4.23</td>
<td>$5.08</td>
<td>$6.10</td>
<td>$7.32</td>
<td>$8.78</td>
<td>$10.53</td>
<td>$12.64</td>
<td>$15.17</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>股票價格</td>
<td>$73.50</td>
<td>$88.25</td>
<td>$105.75</td>
<td>$127</td>
<td>$152.50</td>
<td>$183</td>
<td>$219.50</td>
<td>$263.25</td>
<td>$316</td>
<td>$379.22</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>作者圖表。注意：股票價格是基於支付 25 倍收益的計算，並假設其他條件不變。</p>
<p>現在，假設分析師的共識預估對於財政 2026 和財政 2027 是正確的，但之後的八年內收益僅以 15% 的複合年增長率增長。而且投資者只願意支付 Nvidia 收益的 20 倍。</p>
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>指標</th>
<th>財政 2025</th>
<th>財政 2026</th>
<th>財政 2027</th>
<th>財政 2028</th>
<th>財政 2029</th>
<th>財政 2030</th>
<th>財政 2031</th>
<th>財政 2032</th>
<th>財政 2033</th>
<th>財政 2034</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>每股收益 (EPS)</td>
<td>$2.94</td>
<td>$4.49</td>
<td>$5.72</td>
<td>$6.58</td>
<td>$7.56</td>
<td>$8.70</td>
<td>$10</td>
<td>$11.51</td>
<td>$13.24</td>
<td>$15.22</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>股票價格</td>
<td>$58.80</td>
<td>$89.80</td>
<td>$114.40</td>
<td>$131.60</td>
<td>$151.20</td>
<td>$174</td>
<td>$200</td>
<td>$230.20</td>
<td>$264.80</td>
<td>$304.40</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>作者圖表。注意：股票價格是基於支付 20 倍收益的計算，並假設其他條件不變。</p>
<p>即使在增長急劇放緩和市盈率收縮至僅 20 倍收益的情況下，Nvidia 在 10 年內仍將是一隻 300 美元的股票。</p>
<p>這個練習展示了收益增長的力量，以及一個高溢價股票如何比初看起來更具價值。</p>
<h2>Nvidia 具備超長期持有的潛力</h2>
<p>投資者常常被短期因素所困擾，比如公司是否能達到季度預期或經濟狀況如何。</p>
<p>但對於 Nvidia 來説，增長是如此爆炸性，即使放緩和市盈率收縮，股票在長期內仍可能產生可觀的收益。如果超大規模客户減少支出，Nvidia 在機器人、自動化等其他終端市場仍有巨大的潛力。</p>
<p>綜合來看，Nvidia 在風險與潛在回報之間的平衡使其顯得過於便宜，無法忽視。</p>

英偉達

<p>英偉達的股票今年迄今已下跌 7%，表現不及標準普爾 500 指數。儘管如此，由於其快速的盈利增長，英偉達的估值似乎更具吸引力，市盈率為 42.5，預期市盈率為 27.8。該公司經歷了顯著的收入和營業收入增長，主要得益於向大型科技公司銷售 GPU。儘管面臨潛在的行業放緩和競爭等風險，英偉達對人工智能未來的應用持樂觀態度，暗示未來有強勁的增長潛力</p>

<p><strong>Nvidia</strong>'s (NVDA 1.69%) fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 (ended Jan. 26, 2025) earnings report rocked markets last week, with a sell-off in the major indexes on Thursday followed by a rebound on Friday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>英偉達</strong>（NVDA 1.69%）2025 財年第四季度（截至 2025 年 1 月 26 日）的財報上週震撼了市場，週四主要指數出現拋售，隨後週五反彈。</p>
</div><p>As of March 2, Nvidia is down 7% year to date, underperforming the <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong> index's (^GSPC -1.22%) 1.2% gain. Given Nvidia's over 800% increase between 2023 and the end of 2024, investors may feel a pullback in the growth stock is only natural. But there are plenty of reasons why Nvidia is surprisingly cheaper than a chart of its stock price would suggest.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至 3 月 2 日，英偉達年初至今下跌 7%，表現不及 <strong>標準普爾 500</strong> 指數（^GSPC -1.22%）的 1.2% 漲幅。考慮到英偉達在 2023 年至 2024 年底之間增長超過 800%，投資者可能會覺得增長股的回調是自然而然的。但有很多原因表明，英偉達的估值比其股價圖表所暗示的要便宜得多。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDk2Mjkvc3VycHJpc2Utc21hcnRwaG9uZS1uZXdzLXN0b2NrLXNob2NrLTEyMDB4ODAwLTViMmRmNzkuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F809629%2Fsurprise-smartphone-news-stock-shock-1200x800-5b2df79.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Nvidia's valuation has come down</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>英偉達的估值已下降</h2>
</div><p>The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is a well-known financial metric that divides a stock's price by earnings per share (EPS). The P/E ratio shows the multiple investors are paying for a company relative to its earnings. The higher the P/E ratio, the more expensive the stock based on trailing earnings.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市盈率（P/E）是一個眾所周知的財務指標，它將股票價格與每股收益（EPS）相除。市盈率顯示了投資者為公司相對於其收益所支付的倍數。市盈率越高，基於過去收益，股票就越昂貴。</p>
</div><p>The P/E ratio is helpful when analyzing companies with consistent business models and rangebound growth rates, especially blue chip companies like <strong>Apple</strong>, <strong>Microsoft</strong>, <strong>Home Depot</strong>, <strong>Coca-Cola</strong>, etc. But the metric can be a little less useful for companies that aren't yet profitable, are inconsistently profitable, or are undergoing a major transformation -- like Nvidia.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市盈率在分析具有一致商業模式和穩定增長率的公司時非常有用，尤其是像 <strong>蘋果</strong>、<strong>微軟</strong>、<strong>家得寶</strong>、<strong>可口可樂</strong> 等藍籌公司。但對於尚未盈利、盈利不穩定或正在經歷重大轉型的公司（如英偉達），這一指標的實用性就會降低。</p>
</div><p>Nvidia's stock price has risen significantly in recent years, but so have its earnings. The company is growing so quickly that its valuation has actually gotten cheaper. This is especially true over the last nine months or so because Nvidia's stock price has stayed roughly the same while its earnings continue to soar higher.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英偉達的股價近年來大幅上漲，但其收益也隨之增加。該公司的增長速度如此之快，以至於其估值實際上變得更便宜。尤其是在過去九個月左右，因為英偉達的股價基本保持不變，而其收益卻持續飆升。</p>
</div><p>Nvidia's P/E ratio has come down to 42.5 -- which may seem high given the P/E ratio of the S&amp;P 500 is 29.8. But since Nvidia is still growing earnings rapidly, its forward P/E ratio, which is based on analyst consensus estimates for the next 12 months, is just 27.8 -- meaning that if Nvidia's stock price didn't move for a year, and it met estimates, it would have a valuation around the same as the S&amp;P 500.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英偉達的市盈率已降至 42.5——這可能看起來很高，因為標準普爾 500 的市盈率為 29.8。但由於英偉達的收益仍在快速增長，其前瞻市盈率（基於分析師對未來 12 個月的共識預期）僅為 27.8——這意味着如果英偉達的股價在一年內沒有變動，並且達到了預期，其估值將與標準普爾 500 相當。</p>
</div><h2>Explosive growth</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>爆炸性增長</h2>
</div><p>Nvidia heavily depends on graphics processing unit (GPU) sales to hyperscalers like <strong>Amazon</strong>, Microsoft, <strong>Alphabet</strong>, and <strong>Meta Platforms</strong>. This recent development has led to exponential growth in Nvidia sales, operating income, and profit margins.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英偉達在很大程度上依賴於向 <strong>亞馬遜</strong>、微軟、<strong>谷歌母公司</strong> 和 <strong>Meta Platforms</strong> 等超大規模客户銷售圖形處理單元（GPU）。這一最新發展導致英偉達的銷售、營業收入和利潤率呈指數級增長。</p>
</div><p>As you can see in the following table, Nvidia's revenue is up nearly eight-fold in five years, but operating income has increased over 18-fold.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>正如下表所示，英偉達的收入在五年內幾乎增長了八倍，但營業收入增長超過 18 倍。</p>
</div><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Metric</th>
<th>Fiscal 2021</th>
<th>Fiscal 2022</th>
<th>Fiscal 2023</th>
<th>Fiscal 2024</th>
<th>Fiscal 2025</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Revenue (billions)</td>
<td>$16.7</td>
<td>$26.9</td>
<td>$27</td>
<td>$60.9</td>
<td>$130.5</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Operating income (billions)</td>
<td>$4.5</td>
<td>$10</td>
<td>$5.6</td>
<td>$33</td>
<td>$81.5</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Net income (billions)</td>
<td>$4.3</td>
<td>$9.8</td>
<td>$4.4</td>
<td>$29.8</td>
<td>$72.9</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Profit margin</td>
<td>26%</td>
<td>36.2%</td>
<td>16.2%</td>
<td>48.9%</td>
<td>55.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Diluted EPS</td>
<td>$0.17</td>
<td>$0.39</td>
<td>$0.17</td>
<td>$1.19</td>
<td>$2.94</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<div class="lb-trans"><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>指標</th>
<th>2021 財年</th>
<th>2022 財年</th>
<th>2023 財年</th>
<th>2024 財年</th>
<th>2025 財年</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>收入（十億美元）</td>
<td>$16.7</td>
<td>$26.9</td>
<td>$27</td>
<td>$60.9</td>
<td>$130.5</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>營業收入（十億美元）</td>
<td>$4.5</td>
<td>$10</td>
<td>$5.6</td>
<td>$33</td>
<td>$81.5</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>淨收入（十億美元）</td>
<td>$4.3</td>
<td>$9.8</td>
<td>$4.4</td>
<td>$29.8</td>
<td>$72.9</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>利潤率</td>
<td>26%</td>
<td>36.2%</td>
<td>16.2%</td>
<td>48.9%</td>
<td>55.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>稀釋每股收益</td>
<td>$0.17</td>
<td>$0.39</td>
<td>$0.17</td>
<td>$1.19</td>
<td>$2.94</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div><p>Data sources: Nvidia, YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>數據來源：英偉達，YCharts。</p>
</div><p>In fiscal 2025, Nvidia converted over 55 cents of every dollar in revenue into net income -- an unbelievable profit margin that is simply unheard of for a company of its size.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2025 財年，英偉達將每美元收入中超過 55 美分轉化為淨收入——這一令人難以置信的利潤率在如此規模的公司中實屬罕見。</p>
</div><p>Virtually any stock is cheap if the company keeps doubling or tripling revenue and earnings yearly. But what happens when there's a cyclical slowdown in the semiconductor industry? Or if some of Nvidia's largest customers pull back on capital expenditures? Or if less computing power is needed to run complex artificial intelligence (AI) models, leading to lower GPU demand? Or if a competitor comes up with a formidable solution at a lower cost that erodes Nvidia's margins?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>幾乎任何股票在公司每年收入和收益翻倍或三倍時都是便宜的。但當半導體行業出現週期性放緩時會發生什麼？或者如果英偉達的一些最大客户減少資本支出？或者如果運行復雜人工智能（AI）模型所需的計算能力減少，導致 GPU 需求下降？或者如果競爭對手以更低的成本提出強有力的解決方案，從而侵蝕英偉達的利潤率？</p>
</div><p>Every business faces uncertainties. And Nvidia certainly has its fair share of risk. But it also has plenty of opportunities, too. To quote Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang on the recent earnings call:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>每個企業都面臨不確定性。英偉達當然也有其風險。但它也有很多機會。引用英偉達首席執行官黃仁勳在最近的財報電話會議上的話：</p>
</div><blockquote>
<p>Models like OpenAI, Grok 3, DeepSeek-R1 are reasoning models that apply inference time scaling. Reasoning models can consume 100x more compute. Future reasoning models can consume much more compute. DeepSeek-R1 has ignited global enthusiasm. It's an excellent innovation. But even more importantly, it has open-sourced a world-class reasoning AI model.</p>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><blockquote>
<p>像 OpenAI、Grok 3、DeepSeek-R1 這樣的模型是應用推理時間縮放的推理模型。推理模型可以消耗 100 倍的計算能力。未來的推理模型可能會消耗更多的計算能力。DeepSeek-R1 點燃了全球的熱情。這是一個出色的創新。但更重要的是，它開源了一個世界級的推理 AI 模型。</p>
</blockquote>
</div><p>In sum, Nvidia is encouraged, not threatened, by newer reasoning models like DeepSeek. Nvidia is also very optimistic about the potential for AI to expand beyond the digital world into robotics, physical AI development, autonomous vehicles, and more. All told, there's potential for Nvidia to be less dependent on hyperscalers in the future.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>總之，英偉達對像 DeepSeek 這樣的新推理模型感到鼓舞，而不是受到威脅。英偉達對 AI 在數字世界之外擴展到機器人、物理 AI 開發、自動駕駛汽車等領域的潛力非常樂觀。總的來説，英偉達未來可能會減少對超大規模客户的依賴。</p>
</div><h2>The impact of earnings growth on valuation over time</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>收益增長對估值的影響</h2>
</div><p>Buying Nvidia stock is a bet on continued AI adoption across different end markets and use cases. Over time, Nvidia's growth rate and margins will probably come down as AI becomes a more mature industry and because it is harder to grow a massive business as quickly as a smaller one.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>購買英偉達股票是對不同終端市場和使用案例中持續 AI 採用的押注。隨着時間的推移，英偉達的增長率和利潤率可能會下降，因為 AI 行業變得更加成熟，並且因為快速增長一個龐大企業比一個小企業更困難。</p>
</div><p>But even if Nvidia's earnings growth slows to a compound annual growth rate of, say, 15% over the next 10 years, the stock is still a phenomenal buy. For context, consensus analyst estimates have Nvidia growing EPS to $4.49 in fiscal 2026 and then $5.72 in fiscal 2027 -- growth rates of 52.7% and 27.3%, respectively. So, earnings growth isn't expected to slow down to 20% per year anytime soon.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但即使英偉達的收益增長在未來 10 年放緩至 15% 的年複合增長率，股票仍然是一個極好的買入機會。作為參考，分析師共識預期英偉達在 2026 財年每股收益將增長至$4.49，在 2027 財年將增長至$5.72——分別為 52.7% 和 27.3% 的增長率。因此，收益增長在短期內不太可能放緩至每年 20%。</p>
</div><p>Still, let's pencil in a 20% earnings growth rate over 10 years. And let's say you only want to pay 25 times earnings for the stock. Here's what the stock price would look like under those assumptions. For context, Nvidia is $124.81 per share at the time of this writing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不過，讓我們假設 10 年內的收益增長率為 20%。假設你只想以 25 倍的市盈率購買該股票。在這些假設下，股票價格將會是什麼樣子。作為參考，英偉達在撰寫本文時的股價為$124.81。</p>
</div><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Metric</th>
<th>Fiscal 2025</th>
<th>Fiscal 2026</th>
<th>Fiscal 2027</th>
<th>Fiscal 2028</th>
<th>Fiscal 2029</th>
<th>Fiscal 2030</th>
<th>Fiscal 2031</th>
<th>Fiscal 2032</th>
<th>Fiscal 2033</th>
<th>Fiscal 2034</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>EPS</td>
<td>$2.94</td>
<td>$3.53</td>
<td>$4.23</td>
<td>$5.08</td>
<td>$6.10</td>
<td>$7.32</td>
<td>$8.78</td>
<td>$10.53</td>
<td>$12.64</td>
<td>$15.17</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Stock price</td>
<td>$73.50</td>
<td>$88.25</td>
<td>$105.75</td>
<td>$127</td>
<td>$152.50</td>
<td>$183</td>
<td>$219.50</td>
<td>$263.25</td>
<td>$316</td>
<td>$379.22</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<div class="lb-trans"><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>指標</th>
<th>財政 2025</th>
<th>財政 2026</th>
<th>財政 2027</th>
<th>財政 2028</th>
<th>財政 2029</th>
<th>財政 2030</th>
<th>財政 2031</th>
<th>財政 2032</th>
<th>財政 2033</th>
<th>財政 2034</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>每股收益 (EPS)</td>
<td>$2.94</td>
<td>$3.53</td>
<td>$4.23</td>
<td>$5.08</td>
<td>$6.10</td>
<td>$7.32</td>
<td>$8.78</td>
<td>$10.53</td>
<td>$12.64</td>
<td>$15.17</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>股票價格</td>
<td>$73.50</td>
<td>$88.25</td>
<td>$105.75</td>
<td>$127</td>
<td>$152.50</td>
<td>$183</td>
<td>$219.50</td>
<td>$263.25</td>
<td>$316</td>
<td>$379.22</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div><p>Chart by author. Note: Stock Price is a calculation based on paying 25x earnings and assumes all else is equal.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者圖表。注意：股票價格是基於支付 25 倍收益的計算，並假設其他條件不變。</p>
</div><p>Now, let's assume analyst consensus estimates are correct for fiscal 2026 and fiscal 2027, but then earnings grow at just a 15% compound annual growth rate for eight years after that. And that an investor only wants to pay 20 times Nvidia's earnings.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>現在，假設分析師的共識預估對於財政 2026 和財政 2027 是正確的，但之後的八年內收益僅以 15% 的複合年增長率增長。而且投資者只願意支付 Nvidia 收益的 20 倍。</p>
</div><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Metric</th>
<th>Fiscal 2025</th>
<th>Fiscal 2026</th>
<th>Fiscal 2027</th>
<th>Fiscal 2028</th>
<th>Fiscal 2029</th>
<th>Fiscal 2030</th>
<th>Fiscal 2031</th>
<th>Fiscal 2032</th>
<th>Fiscal 2033</th>
<th>Fiscal 2034</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>EPS</td>
<td>$2.94</td>
<td>$4.49</td>
<td>$5.72</td>
<td>$6.58</td>
<td>$7.56</td>
<td>$8.70</td>
<td>$10</td>
<td>$11.51</td>
<td>$13.24</td>
<td>$15.22</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Stock price</td>
<td>$58.80</td>
<td>$89.80</td>
<td>$114.40</td>
<td>$131.60</td>
<td>$151.20</td>
<td>$174</td>
<td>$200</td>
<td>$230.20</td>
<td>$264.80</td>
<td>$304.40</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<div class="lb-trans"><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>指標</th>
<th>財政 2025</th>
<th>財政 2026</th>
<th>財政 2027</th>
<th>財政 2028</th>
<th>財政 2029</th>
<th>財政 2030</th>
<th>財政 2031</th>
<th>財政 2032</th>
<th>財政 2033</th>
<th>財政 2034</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>每股收益 (EPS)</td>
<td>$2.94</td>
<td>$4.49</td>
<td>$5.72</td>
<td>$6.58</td>
<td>$7.56</td>
<td>$8.70</td>
<td>$10</td>
<td>$11.51</td>
<td>$13.24</td>
<td>$15.22</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>股票價格</td>
<td>$58.80</td>
<td>$89.80</td>
<td>$114.40</td>
<td>$131.60</td>
<td>$151.20</td>
<td>$174</td>
<td>$200</td>
<td>$230.20</td>
<td>$264.80</td>
<td>$304.40</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div><p>Chart by author. Note: Stock Price is a calculation based on paying 20x earnings and assumes all else is equal.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者圖表。注意：股票價格是基於支付 20 倍收益的計算，並假設其他條件不變。</p>
</div><p>Even with a steep slowdown in growth and a multiple contraction to just 20 times earnings, Nvidia would still be a $300 stock in 10 years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>即使在增長急劇放緩和市盈率收縮至僅 20 倍收益的情況下，Nvidia 在 10 年內仍將是一隻 300 美元的股票。</p>
</div><p>This exercise shows the power of earnings growth and how a premium-priced stock can be a better value than it appears at first glance.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這個練習展示了收益增長的力量，以及一個高溢價股票如何比初看起來更具價值。</p>
</div><h2>Nvidia has the makings of an ultra-long-term holding</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Nvidia 具備超長期持有的潛力</h2>
</div><p>Too often, investors get bogged down by near-term factors, like whether a company will hit its quarterly projections or how the economy is doing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投資者常常被短期因素所困擾，比如公司是否能達到季度預期或經濟狀況如何。</p>
</div><p>But with Nvidia, the growth is so explosive that even a slowdown and a multiple contraction could still mean the stock will produce sizable gains over the long term. If hyperscalers pull back on spending, Nvidia still has tons of potential in other end markets like robotics, automation, and more.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但對於 Nvidia 來説，增長是如此爆炸性，即使放緩和市盈率收縮，股票在長期內仍可能產生可觀的收益。如果超大規模客户減少支出，Nvidia 在機器人、自動化等其他終端市場仍有巨大的潛力。</p>
</div><p>Add it all up, and Nvidia's balance between risk and potential reward makes it simply too cheap to ignore.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>綜合來看，Nvidia 在風險與潛在回報之間的平衡使其顯得過於便宜，無法忽視。</p>
</div>

This Key Metric Shows Why Nvidia Stock Is Too Cheap to Ignore

- Nvidia 第四季度財報引發市場波動，股價年初至今下跌 7%。
- 公司市盈率降至 42.5，未來市盈率為 27.8，顯示出相對便宜。
- Nvidia 依賴 GPU 銷售，未來有望在多個領域實現增長。

這個關鍵指標顯示了為什麼英偉達的股票便宜得令人無法忽視