<p>我不會對你們隱瞞：上週對於太空投資者來説是一個相當沮喪的時刻。</p>
<p>在週四的連續發展中，我們首先得知一台無人駕駛的 Nova-C 月球着陸器試圖在月球南極着陸。但它在一個隕石坑內翻倒，側卧着，最終在缺乏陽光供給其太陽能電池的情況下安靜地死去。</p>
<p>幾個小時後，SpaceX 的 Starship 第八次飛行測試以一場火球結束，第二級（現在被 Elon Musk 稱為 “飛船”）在上升過程中失去控制，自我毀滅，再次將加勒比海淹沒在太空碎片中。</p>
<p>可以説，最糟糕的是，這兩起事件似乎是過去太空新聞的幾乎完全重複。上一次 Nova-C 着陸器也在着陸時翻倒。而之前的 Starship 測試飛行也以火球結束。</p>
<p>投資者對接連的失敗並不感到興奮，今天正在重新評估太空股票對他們投資組合的風險程度。截至週一東部時間上午 11 點：</p>
<ul>
<li><strong>Rocket Lab USA</strong>(RKLB -10.60%) 的股票下跌了 7.5%。</li>
<li><strong>Planet Labs</strong>(PL -10.39%) 下跌了 8.7%。</li>
<li>而 <strong>AST SpaceMobile</strong>(ASTS -12.54%) 的表現最差：下跌了 9.3%。</li>
</ul>
<h2>華爾街依然看漲</h2>
<p>不過，並非所有消息都是壞的。Rocket Lab 今天實際上收到了一個好消息，投資銀行 <strong>摩根士丹利</strong> 將這家小型火箭製造商的目標股價上調了超過 10%，至每股 20 美元，正如 TheFly.com 所報道的。</p>
<p>自從公司在 10 天前報告財報並調整其新型 Neutron 中型運載火箭的首次發射時間從 2025 年中期推遲到下半年以來，Rocket Lab 的股票下跌了大約 15%——其中一半的跌幅發生在今天。</p>
<p>不過，摩根士丹利正確指出，這似乎只是時間表上的相對適度的延遲，呼應了 Rocket Lab 首席執行官 Peter Beck 的評論，即如果有延遲，也 “不會很重要”。</p>
<p>因此，摩根士丹利的新目標股價暗示，跌幅將會迅速回升，預計在接下來的 12 個月內回升 15%。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTA2MTIvcmVkLWFuZC13aGl0ZS1yb2NrZXQtbGF1bmNoZXMtYW5kLWNyYXNoZXMuanBnJnc9NzAw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTA2MTIvcmVkLWFuZC13aGl0ZS1yb2NrZXQtbGF1bmNoZXMtYW5kLWNyYXNoZXMuanBnJnc9NzAw"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>太空是困難的，太空股票是有風險的</h2>
<p>我同意摩根士丹利的觀點，Rocket Lab 所描述的延遲似乎並不值得擔憂。製造火箭是困難的，讓它們飛行正常而不爆炸更是困難，正如我們上週看到的 SpaceX 事件。</p>
<p>更重要的是，即使是設計完美、飛行完美的火箭也不總是能按時發射。客户可能會延遲準備他們的有效載荷，燃料管線和其他地面支持系統的問題可能導致最後時刻的取消，天氣也不總是配合。</p>
<p>如果 Neutron 沒有在 7 月發射（如所希望的那樣），而是在 8 月、9 月甚至 10 月發射，這在大局上並不會是個大問題。</p>
<p>不過，我擔心的是，許多太空股票的股價可能並未反映出這些企業更嚴重問題的風險。</p>
<p>例如，Rocket Lab、AST SpaceMobile 和 Planet Labs 目前都沒有盈利。這三家公司都在燒錢。在這三家公司中，Rocket Lab 看起來最接近成為一個可行的企業，華爾街分析師預測一旦 Neutron 的開發成本降低，產生的收入增加，明年將實現正的自由現金流。而 Rocket Lab 在公認會計原則下的首次盈利預計將在 2027 年到來。</p>
<p>分析師也預測 AST SpaceMobile 在 2027 年將實現自由現金流和正收益。但由於該公司仍處於初創階段，收入微乎其微，我懷疑他們目前是否真的有足夠的硬數據來證明這一預測——尤其是考慮到該公司完成建設和發射其衞星羣所需的鉅額現金需求。</p>
<p>與此同時，Planet Labs 的股票看起來無疑是最具風險的，沒有分析師願意公開預測該公司何時能實現盈利。儘管有這些擔憂，該股票在過去一年上漲了 80%，Rocket Lab 的股票上漲了 320%，而 AST 的股票幾乎上漲了 1000%。</p>
<p>投資者今天對估值產生第二次思考，並對這三隻非常成功的股票進行了一些拋售，這在我看來是合理的。</p>

ASTS

摩根士丹利

RKLB

<p>太空股票在經歷了兩次重大失敗後面臨下滑：Nova-C 月球着陸器在着陸時翻倒，SpaceX 的 Starship 測試以火球結束。因此，Rocket Lab、Planet Labs 和 AST SpaceMobile 等股票都出現了下跌。儘管如此，摩根士丹利提高了 Rocket Lab 的目標股價，暗示潛在的復甦。然而，關於這些公司的盈利能力和現金消耗仍然存在擔憂，Rocket Lab 看起來最接近可行性。總體而言，投資者在這些挫折中重新評估與太空股票相關的風險</p>

<p>I won't sugarcoat this for you: Last week was a pretty depressing time to be a space investor.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我不會對你們隱瞞：上週對於太空投資者來説是一個相當沮喪的時刻。</p>
</div><p>In back-to-back developments Thursday, we learned first that an unmanned Nova-C lunar lander tried to touch down on the moon's South Pole. But it toppled over within a crater, fell on its side, and died a quiet death deprived of sunlight for its solar cells.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在週四的連續發展中，我們首先得知一台無人駕駛的 Nova-C 月球着陸器試圖在月球南極着陸。但它在一個隕石坑內翻倒，側卧着，最終在缺乏陽光供給其太陽能電池的情況下安靜地死去。</p>
</div><p>A few hours later, the eighth flight test of the SpaceX Starship ended in a fireball when the second stage (now being called just the &#34;Ship&#34; by Elon Musk, head of Space X) lost control on ascent and self-destructed, once again showering the Caribbean in space debris.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>幾個小時後，SpaceX 的 Starship 第八次飛行測試以一場火球結束，第二級（現在被 Elon Musk 稱為 “飛船”）在上升過程中失去控制，自我毀滅，再次將加勒比海淹沒在太空碎片中。</p>
</div><p>Arguably worst of all, both these incidents seemed to be near-identical repeats of past space news. The last Nova-C lander also toppled over on landing. And the previous Starship test flight also ended in a fireball.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>可以説，最糟糕的是，這兩起事件似乎是過去太空新聞的幾乎完全重複。上一次 Nova-C 着陸器也在着陸時翻倒。而之前的 Starship 測試飛行也以火球結束。</p>
</div><p>Investors aren't thrilled with the back-to-back failures and today are reevaluating precisely how risky space stocks might be for their portfolios. As of 11 a.m. ET on Monday:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投資者對接連的失敗並不感到興奮，今天正在重新評估太空股票對他們投資組合的風險程度。截至週一東部時間上午 11 點：</p>
</div><ul>
<li><strong>Rocket Lab USA</strong>(RKLB -10.60%) stock is down 7.5%.</li>
<li><strong>Planet Labs</strong>(PL -10.39%) is off 8.7%</li>
<li>And <strong>AST SpaceMobile</strong>(ASTS -12.54%) is doing worst of all: down 9.3%</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><strong>Rocket Lab USA</strong>(RKLB -10.60%) 的股票下跌了 7.5%。</li>
<li><strong>Planet Labs</strong>(PL -10.39%) 下跌了 8.7%。</li>
<li>而 <strong>AST SpaceMobile</strong>(ASTS -12.54%) 的表現最差：下跌了 9.3%。</li>
</ul>
</div><h2>Wall Street remains bullish</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>華爾街依然看漲</h2>
</div><p>Now, it's not all bad news. Rocket Lab actually got a bit of good news today when analysts at the investment bank <strong>Morgan Stanley</strong> raised their price target on the small rocket maker by more than 10%, to $20 a share, as TheFly.com reports.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不過，並非所有消息都是壞的。Rocket Lab 今天實際上收到了一個好消息，投資銀行 <strong>摩根士丹利</strong> 將這家小型火箭製造商的目標股價上調了超過 10%，至每股 20 美元，正如 TheFly.com 所報道的。</p>
</div><p>Shares of Rocket Lab are down about 15% -- half of which happened just today -- since the company reported earnings 10 days ago and tweaked its timeline for the first launch of its new Neutron medium-lift vehicle from mid-2025 to the second half of the year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自從公司在 10 天前報告財報並調整其新型 Neutron 中型運載火箭的首次發射時間從 2025 年中期推遲到下半年以來，Rocket Lab 的股票下跌了大約 15%——其中一半的跌幅發生在今天。</p>
</div><p>Morgan Stanley correctly points out, though, that this seems no more than a relatively modest delay in the timeline, echoing comments from Rocket Lab CEO Peter Beck that any delay, if there even is one, will be &#34;not very material.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不過，摩根士丹利正確指出，這似乎只是時間表上的相對適度的延遲，呼應了 Rocket Lab 首席執行官 Peter Beck 的評論，即如果有延遲，也 “不會很重要”。</p>
</div><p>Accordingly, Morgan Stanley's new price target implies that what went down is going to go right back up, gaining back 15% within the next 12 months.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，摩根士丹利的新目標股價暗示，跌幅將會迅速回升，預計在接下來的 12 個月內回升 15%。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTA2MTIvcmVkLWFuZC13aGl0ZS1yb2NrZXQtbGF1bmNoZXMtYW5kLWNyYXNoZXMuanBnJnc9NzAw" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F810612%2Fred-and-white-rocket-launches-and-crashes.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Space is hard, and space stocks are risky</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>太空是困難的，太空股票是有風險的</h2>
</div><p>I agree with Morgan Stanley that the delay Rocket Lab describes seems like nothing to worry about. Building rockets is hard, and getting them to fly right and not explode is even harder, as we saw with SpaceX last week.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我同意摩根士丹利的觀點，Rocket Lab 所描述的延遲似乎並不值得擔憂。製造火箭是困難的，讓它們飛行正常而不爆炸更是困難，正如我們上週看到的 SpaceX 事件。</p>
</div><p>What's more, even perfectly designed and perfectly flown rockets don't always fly on time. Customers may be late in getting their payloads ready for launch, issues with fuel lines and other ground support systems can cause last-minute scrubs, and the weather doesn't always cooperate.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>更重要的是，即使是設計完美、飛行完美的火箭也不總是能按時發射。客户可能會延遲準備他們的有效載荷，燃料管線和其他地面支持系統的問題可能導致最後時刻的取消，天氣也不總是配合。</p>
</div><p>If Neutron isn't launched in July (as was hoped), and ends up taking off in August, September, or even October, that's not going to be a big deal in the grand scheme of things.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果 Neutron 沒有在 7 月發射（如所希望的那樣），而是在 8 月、9 月甚至 10 月發射，這在大局上並不會是個大問題。</p>
</div><p>What does worry me about a lot of space stocks, though, is that their share prices may not reflect the risks of more serious issues with these businesses.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不過，我擔心的是，許多太空股票的股價可能並未反映出這些企業更嚴重問題的風險。</p>
</div><p>Neither Rocket Lab, AST SpaceMobile, nor Planet Labs are profitable currently, for example. All three are burning cash. Of the three, Rocket Lab looks the closest to being a viable business, with Wall Street analysts forecasting positive free cash flow next year, once the cost of developing the Neutron winds down, and revenue it produces ramps up. And Rocket Lab's first profits under generally accepted accounting principles should arrive in 2027.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>例如，Rocket Lab、AST SpaceMobile 和 Planet Labs 目前都沒有盈利。這三家公司都在燒錢。在這三家公司中，Rocket Lab 看起來最接近成為一個可行的企業，華爾街分析師預測一旦 Neutron 的開發成本降低，產生的收入增加，明年將實現正的自由現金流。而 Rocket Lab 在公認會計原則下的首次盈利預計將在 2027 年到來。</p>
</div><p>Analysts forecast both free cash flow and positive earnings for AST SpaceMobile in 2027 as well. But with the company still in start-up mode, with de minimis revenue, I wonder if they really have enough hard numbers to justify that prediction at present -- especially when you consider the company's massive cash requirements to finish building out and launching its satellite fleet.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>分析師也預測 AST SpaceMobile 在 2027 年將實現自由現金流和正收益。但由於該公司仍處於初創階段，收入微乎其微，我懷疑他們目前是否真的有足夠的硬數據來證明這一預測——尤其是考慮到該公司完成建設和發射其衞星羣所需的鉅額現金需求。</p>
</div><p>Planet Labs stock, meanwhile, looks arguably riskiest of all, with no analysts willing to go on record and predict a date for the company to turn profitable. Despite all these concerns, the stock is up 80% over the past year, Rocket Lab stock has gained 320%, and AST stock is up nearly 1,000%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>與此同時，Planet Labs 的股票看起來無疑是最具風險的，沒有分析師願意公開預測該公司何時能實現盈利。儘管有這些擔憂，該股票在過去一年上漲了 80%，Rocket Lab 的股票上漲了 320%，而 AST 的股票幾乎上漲了 1000%。</p>
</div><p>The fact that investors are having second thoughts about valuation today, and doing a bit of selling of these three very big winners, seems reasonable to me.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投資者今天對估值產生第二次思考，並對這三隻非常成功的股票進行了一些拋售，這在我看來是合理的。</p>
</div>

為什麼今天太空股票陷入低迷