<p>週一股市大幅下跌。截至東部時間下午 3:10，道瓊斯工業平均指數下跌了 2.6%，有望創下今年最糟糕的一天，而 <strong>標準普爾 500 指數</strong> 的表現更差，下跌了 3.4%。更糟糕的是，以科技股為主的納斯達克指數下跌近 5%，預計將創下自 2022 年 9 月以來的最大跌幅。</p>
<p>銀行股的表現甚至比這些主要基準更糟糕。而且這不僅僅是大銀行的問題：在整個金融服務行業，股票都遭受了重創。舉幾個例子，巨型銀行 <strong>花旗</strong>(C -4.33%) 下跌約 6%；投資銀行巨頭 <strong>摩根士丹利</strong>(MS -6.37%) 下跌了 8%；而在線銀行顛覆者 <strong>SoFi</strong>(SOFI -11.20%) 則暴跌約 12%。</p>
<h2>為什麼銀行股受到如此嚴重的打擊？</h2>
<p>可以肯定的是，儘管今天的走勢看起來令人恐懼，但這只是過去幾周持續拋售的最新表現。自 2025 年 2 月中旬以來，花旗和高盛的股價均下跌了約 22%。自 1 月底報告財報以來，SoFi 的股價下跌了約 38%。</p>
<p>簡而言之，衰退的恐懼和其他經濟逆風導致投資者對銀行股失去信心。</p>
<p>由於政府人員裁減、關税政策不確定以及最近經濟數據低於預期，美國衰退的可能性急劇上升。</p>
<p>事實上，亞特蘭大聯邦儲備銀行現在預測，第一季度 GDP 將以年化 2.4% 的速度收縮，這將是自 2020 年第二季度 COVID-19 疫情幾乎關閉美國經濟以來最糟糕的經濟增長。大多數經濟學家將衰退定義為連續兩個季度的負 GDP 增長，因此現在看起來比幾個月前更有可能。</p>
<h2>銀行與衰退</h2>
<p>衰退通常對銀行不利，原因有幾個。最明顯的是，它們可能導致消費者對貸款的需求下降。但它們也可能導致貸款違約率上升，尤其是在個人貸款和信用卡方面，這兩者都是無擔保債務，而這正是 SoFi 和花旗的重點領域。</p>
<p>可以肯定的是，經濟不景氣通常伴隨的低利率可能會帶來一些潛在的積極影響。這可以幫助降低銀行的存款成本，並促進某些類型的貸款活動（例如，抵押貸款再融資）。但我們必須明確：在衰退中，壞處幾乎肯定會超過好處，對銀行業來説尤其如此。</p>
<p>在投資銀行方面，儘管交易收入在動盪的市場環境中往往表現良好，但經濟不景氣也往往導致併購（M&amp;A）活動減少、首次公開募股（IPO）數量減少，以及公司對新債務的需求降低。</p>
<p>底線是，銀行業是最具週期性的行業之一，這就是為什麼衰退的恐懼會使這些股票特別波動。如果這些恐懼被證明是誇大的，這可能是一個買入機會。但如果全面衰退來臨，預計未來會有更多的波動。</p>

SOFI

摩根士丹利

花旗

高盛

<p>銀行股在週一經歷了顯著下跌，花旗下跌 6%，摩根士丹利下跌 8%，SoFi 暴跌 12%。更廣泛的市場也遭受重創，道瓊斯指數下跌 2.6%，標準普爾 500 指數下跌 3.4%。此次下跌歸因於對經濟衰退的擔憂加劇，原因包括政府削減開支、不確定的關税政策以及令人失望的經濟數據。亞特蘭大聯邦儲備銀行預測第一季度 GDP 將收縮 2.4%，這引發了人們對貸款需求和貸款違約增加的擔憂，特別是在潛在的經濟衰退中對銀行業績的影響</p>

<p>The stock market was down big on Monday. As of 3:10 p.m. EDT, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 2.6% and was on pace for its worst day of the year, and the <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong> was doing even worse, down by 3.4%. Worse yet, the tech-heavy Nasdaq declined by nearly 5% and was set to post its worst decline since September 2022.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>週一股市大幅下跌。截至東部時間下午 3:10，道瓊斯工業平均指數下跌了 2.6%，有望創下今年最糟糕的一天，而 <strong>標準普爾 500 指數</strong> 的表現更差，下跌了 3.4%。更糟糕的是，以科技股為主的納斯達克指數下跌近 5%，預計將創下自 2022 年 9 月以來的最大跌幅。</p>
</div><p>Bank stocks were doing even worse than these major benchmarks. And it wasn't just big banks: Across the financial-services industry, stocks were taking a big hit. To name a few examples, megabank <strong>Citigroup</strong>(C -4.33%) was down by about 6%; investment banking giant <strong>Morgan Stanley</strong>(MS -6.37%) was lower by 8%; and online banking disruptor <strong>SoFi</strong>(SOFI -11.20%) plunged by about 12%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>銀行股的表現甚至比這些主要基準更糟糕。而且這不僅僅是大銀行的問題：在整個金融服務行業，股票都遭受了重創。舉幾個例子，巨型銀行 <strong>花旗</strong>(C -4.33%) 下跌約 6%；投資銀行巨頭 <strong>摩根士丹利</strong>(MS -6.37%) 下跌了 8%；而在線銀行顛覆者 <strong>SoFi</strong>(SOFI -11.20%) 則暴跌約 12%。</p>
</div><h2>Why are bank stocks getting hit so hard?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>為什麼銀行股受到如此嚴重的打擊？</h2>
</div><p>To be sure, while today's moves look scary, they are just the latest in a prolonged sell-off that has taken place over the past couple of weeks. Citigroup and Goldman Sachs have both fallen by about 22% since their mid-February 2025 highs. SoFi has declined by about 38% since reporting earnings in late January.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>可以肯定的是，儘管今天的走勢看起來令人恐懼，但這只是過去幾周持續拋售的最新表現。自 2025 年 2 月中旬以來，花旗和高盛的股價均下跌了約 22%。自 1 月底報告財報以來，SoFi 的股價下跌了約 38%。</p>
</div><p>The short explanation is that recession fears and other economic headwinds are causing investors to lose confidence in bank stocks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>簡而言之，衰退的恐懼和其他經濟逆風導致投資者對銀行股失去信心。</p>
</div><p>Between the numerous government personnel reductions, uncertain tariff policies, and recent weaker-than-expected economic data, the probability of a U.S. recession has increased sharply.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由於政府人員裁減、關税政策不確定以及最近經濟數據低於預期，美國衰退的可能性急劇上升。</p>
</div><p>In fact, the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta now forecasts that GDP will contract by an annualized rate of 2.4% in the first quarter, which would be the worst economic growth since the COVID-19 pandemic nearly shut down the U.S. economy in the second quarter of 2020. Most economists define a recession as two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth, so it looks more likely than it was a few months ago.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>事實上，亞特蘭大聯邦儲備銀行現在預測，第一季度 GDP 將以年化 2.4% 的速度收縮，這將是自 2020 年第二季度 COVID-19 疫情幾乎關閉美國經濟以來最糟糕的經濟增長。大多數經濟學家將衰退定義為連續兩個季度的負 GDP 增長，因此現在看起來比幾個月前更有可能。</p>
</div><h2>Banks and recessions</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>銀行與衰退</h2>
</div><p>Recessions are generally bad for banks for a few different reasons. Most obviously, they can cause consumer demand for loans to drop. But they can also cause loan default rates to spike higher, especially when it comes to personal loans and credit cards, both unsecured forms of debt, which are focus areas of SoFi and Citi, respectively.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>衰退通常對銀行不利，原因有幾個。最明顯的是，它們可能導致消費者對貸款的需求下降。但它們也可能導致貸款違約率上升，尤其是在個人貸款和信用卡方面，這兩者都是無擔保債務，而這正是 SoFi 和花旗的重點領域。</p>
</div><p>To be sure, there are some potential positive effects, such as lower interest rates that usually come with poor economic conditions. This can help lower banks' deposit costs and boost some types of lending activity (mortgage refinancing, for example). But let's be perfectly clear: In a recession, the bad would almost certainly outweigh the good for the banking industry.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>可以肯定的是，經濟不景氣通常伴隨的低利率可能會帶來一些潛在的積極影響。這可以幫助降低銀行的存款成本，並促進某些類型的貸款活動（例如，抵押貸款再融資）。但我們必須明確：在衰退中，壞處幾乎肯定會超過好處，對銀行業來説尤其如此。</p>
</div><p>On the investment banking side, while trading revenue tends to do well in turbulent market environments, poor economic conditions also tend to lead to less merger and acquisition (M&amp;A) activity, fewer initial public offerings (IPOs), and less appetite from companies for new debt.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在投資銀行方面，儘管交易收入在動盪的市場環境中往往表現良好，但經濟不景氣也往往導致併購（M&amp;A）活動減少、首次公開募股（IPO）數量減少，以及公司對新債務的需求降低。</p>
</div><p>The bottom line is that banking is one of the most cyclical businesses, and that's why recession fears can make these stocks especially volatile. If the fears turn out to be overblown, this could be a buying opportunity. But if a full-blown recession hits, it would be fair to expect more volatility ahead.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>底線是，銀行業是最具週期性的行業之一，這就是為什麼衰退的恐懼會使這些股票特別波動。如果這些恐懼被證明是誇大的，這可能是一個買入機會。但如果全面衰退來臨，預計未來會有更多的波動。</p>
</div>

Bank Stocks Plunged on Monday.  Here's Why Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, and SoFi all Got Hit so Hard.

- 週一股市大幅下跌，道瓊斯指數下跌 2.6%，標普 500 下跌 3.4%。  
- 銀行股表現更差，花旗集團下跌約 6%，摩根士丹利下跌 8%。  
- 經濟衰退擔憂加劇，導致投資者對銀行股信心下降。  

銀行股在週一大幅下跌。這就是為什麼花旗集團、高盛和 SoFi Tech 都受到嚴重打擊的原因