<p>股市隨着時間的推移而波動。這就是市場的運作方式。但正如牛市與熊市之間的擺動是可預測的，投資者所經歷的情緒波動也是如此。現在，投資者顯然在出售資產，但他們也在尋找新的資金去處。一個受益者是高收益的 <strong>卡夫亨氏</strong>(KHC 0.12%)。這是一個避風港的正確選擇嗎？</p>
<h2>嬰兒與洗澡水</h2>
<p>當股市跌破關鍵指標時，投資者開始擔憂。第一個重要的指標是所謂的 “修正”，這意味着一個指數——在這種情況下是 <strong>納斯達克綜合指數</strong>——從其高點下跌了 10%。修正並不罕見，但顯然是進入熊市（下跌 20% 或更多）的第一站。因此，人們心中和腦海中的恐懼開始上升。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTA2NTkvMjNfMTFfMjgtYS1wZXJzb24tY292ZXJpbmctdGhlaXItZXllcy13aXRoLWEtY29tcHV0ZXItaW1hZ2Utb2YtYS1mYWxsaW5nLXN0b2NrLWdyYXBoLWluLWZyb250LW9mLXRoZW0tX21mLWRsb2FkZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTQwOTMwMDI3My0xMjAweDgwMC01YjJkZjc5LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTA2NTkvMjNfMTFfMjgtYS1wZXJzb24tY292ZXJpbmctdGhlaXItZXllcy13aXRoLWEtY29tcHV0ZXItaW1hZ2Utb2YtYS1mYWxsaW5nLXN0b2NrLWdyYXBoLWluLWZyb250LW9mLXRoZW0tX21mLWRsb2FkZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTQwOTMwMDI3My0xMjAweDgwMC01YjJkZjc5LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<p>這引發了兩個非常具體的事件。首先，投資者開始出售資產，以保護自己免受潛在損失。通常，首先被拋售的股票是那些曾經備受喜愛的公司的股票。但這些拋售意味着投資者手中有現金，因此第二個事件是投資者尋找安全的投資避風港，以存放這些資金。在這方面有一些共同的線索，但這裏重要的是消費品行業。</p>
<p>投資於消費品股票是明智的。這些公司生產人們定期購買的產品，無論世界發生什麼。想想衞生紙、牙膏和食品。你可能會調整購買的品牌，但即使在嚴重的經濟衰退中，你肯定會繼續購買這些東西。卡夫亨氏是一家消費品巨頭，憑藉其約 5% 的高股息收益率，帶來了豐厚的股息收入。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/57206a3f777846d65fd90059e500ca36.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/57206a3f777846d65fd90059e500ca36.png"/></p>
<p>KHC 數據來源於 YCharts。</p>
<h2>卡夫亨氏是避風港的正確選擇嗎？</h2>
<p>正如上面的圖表所示，在過去一個月中，納斯達克綜合指數下跌了約 10%（截至本文撰寫時），而卡夫亨氏的股價上漲了 10%。這意味着 20% 的超額收益！顯然，投資者已經轉向風險規避的心態。但問題是：你不應該無差別地出售，也不應該以這種方式購買。</p>
<p>卡夫亨氏的股息收益率約為 5%，而消費品行業的平均收益率約為 2.6%。它的收益率更高是有原因的。卡夫亨氏的業務表現並不好。這並不是一個新趨勢——自從卡夫與亨氏幾年前合併以來，公司一直面臨逆風。</p>
<p>合併的最初目標是削減成本以提高盈利能力。但你只能削減成本到一定程度，然後就需要一個新計劃。在管理層動盪之後，卡夫亨氏轉變了方向，專注於其最大和最重要的品牌。這與 <strong>寶潔</strong> 重新走上增長軌道的計劃相同。對卡夫亨氏來説，這似乎也是一條合理的前進道路。</p>
<p>唯一的問題是，卡夫亨氏應該花費所有時間和金錢支持的品牌表現並不好。在 2024 年第四季度，其 “加速” 品牌的有機銷售下降了 5.2%。這緊隨其後的是第三季度下降 4.5% 和第二季度下降 2.4%。2024 年第一季度同店銷售增長了 0.5%。明顯的趨勢是表現變差，而不是變好。</p>
<p>給足夠的時間，卡夫亨氏最終很可能會扭轉業務，重新走上增長軌道。但現在，它顯然並沒有全面發力。僅僅因為它是一家食品製造商，這並不意味着它是一個安全的避風港。這是一個轉型故事，這比大多數投資者應該追求的風險更高。</p>
<h2>還有其他選擇可供選擇</h2>
<p>如果你想在市場修正（或更糟糕的情況下）期間跳入消費品行業以保持安全，購買一個交易所交易基金（ETF），如 <strong>消費品精選行業 SPDR ETF</strong>，可能會更好。這樣至少可以為你提供一個多樣化的日常生活必需品公司的投資組合。如果你想挑選股票，考慮到卡夫亨氏的基本面疲弱，它可能不是最佳選擇。也許像 <strong>可口可樂</strong> 或 <strong>百事可樂</strong> 這樣的表現仍然強勁的 “股息之王” 會是更好的選擇。</p>

卡夫亨氏

塔吉特

開市客

克羅格

<p>納斯達克綜合指數最近經歷了 10% 的調整，促使投資者尋求現金的安全避風港。高收益的卡夫亨氏（KHC）股價上漲了 10%，表現優於該指數。然而，卡夫亨氏面臨持續的業務挑戰，主要品牌的有機銷售正在下降。儘管其 5% 的股息收益率頗具吸引力，但公司正處於轉型階段，這使其成為一種高風險投資。對於消費品行業中更安全的選擇，投資者可以考慮 ETF 或更穩定的公司，如可口可樂或百事可樂</p>

<p>Stock markets rise and fall over time. It's just how the markets work. But just as predictable as the pendulum swing from bull to bear (and vice versa) is, so too are the emotional swings that investors go through. Right now, investors are clearly selling assets, but they are also looking for a new home for the cash that's raised. One beneficiary has been high-yielding <strong>Kraft Heinz</strong>(KHC 0.12%). Is that the right place to run for cover?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>股市隨着時間的推移而波動。這就是市場的運作方式。但正如牛市與熊市之間的擺動是可預測的，投資者所經歷的情緒波動也是如此。現在，投資者顯然在出售資產，但他們也在尋找新的資金去處。一個受益者是高收益的 <strong>卡夫亨氏</strong>(KHC 0.12%)。這是一個避風港的正確選擇嗎？</p>
</div><h2>The baby and the bathwater</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>嬰兒與洗澡水</h2>
</div><p>When stock markets fall beyond key yardsticks, investors start to worry. The first big one is a so-called &#34;correction,&#34; which simply means that an index -- in this case, the <strong>Nasdaq Composite</strong> -- has declined by 10% from its highs. Corrections aren't unusual at all, but they are clearly the first stop on the way to a bear market (a decline of 20% or more). Therefore, fear has started to rise in people's hearts and minds.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>當股市跌破關鍵指標時，投資者開始擔憂。第一個重要的指標是所謂的 “修正”，這意味着一個指數——在這種情況下是 <strong>納斯達克綜合指數</strong>——從其高點下跌了 10%。修正並不罕見，但顯然是進入熊市（下跌 20% 或更多）的第一站。因此，人們心中和腦海中的恐懼開始上升。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTA2NTkvMjNfMTFfMjgtYS1wZXJzb24tY292ZXJpbmctdGhlaXItZXllcy13aXRoLWEtY29tcHV0ZXItaW1hZ2Utb2YtYS1mYWxsaW5nLXN0b2NrLWdyYXBoLWluLWZyb250LW9mLXRoZW0tX21mLWRsb2FkZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTQwOTMwMDI3My0xMjAweDgwMC01YjJkZjc5LmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F810659%2F23_11_28-a-person-covering-their-eyes-with-a-computer-image-of-a-falling-stock-graph-in-front-of-them-_mf-dloadgettyimages-1409300273-1200x800-5b2df79.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><p>That sets off two very specific events. First, investors start to sell assets in an effort to protect themselves from potential losses. Often, the first stocks to go are the stocks of companies that had been the most adored. But those sales mean investors have cash, so the second event is investors looking for safe haven investments where they can stash that money. There are a few common threads on that front, but the one that's important here is the consumer staples sector.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這引發了兩個非常具體的事件。首先，投資者開始出售資產，以保護自己免受潛在損失。通常，首先被拋售的股票是那些曾經備受喜愛的公司的股票。但這些拋售意味着投資者手中有現金，因此第二個事件是投資者尋找安全的投資避風港，以存放這些資金。在這方面有一些共同的線索，但這裏重要的是消費品行業。</p>
</div><p>Hiding out in consumer staples stocks makes sense. These companies make products that people buy regularly, regardless of what is happening in the world. Think toilet paper, toothpaste, and food. You might adjust what brands you buy, but you are most certainly going to keep buying these things even in a deep recession. Kraft Heinz is a consumer staples giant, and it comes with a hefty dose of dividend income, thanks to its lofty 5% or so dividend yield.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投資於消費品股票是明智的。這些公司生產人們定期購買的產品，無論世界發生什麼。想想衞生紙、牙膏和食品。你可能會調整購買的品牌，但即使在嚴重的經濟衰退中，你肯定會繼續購買這些東西。卡夫亨氏是一家消費品巨頭，憑藉其約 5% 的高股息收益率，帶來了豐厚的股息收入。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/57206a3f777846d65fd90059e500ca36.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/57206a3f777846d65fd90059e500ca36.png"/></p>
<p>KHC data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>KHC 數據來源於 YCharts。</p>
</div><h2>Is Kraft Heinz the right place to run for cover?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>卡夫亨氏是避風港的正確選擇嗎？</h2>
</div><p>As the chart above shows, over the past month, the Nasdaq Composite has fallen around 10% or so (as of this writing) while Kraft Heinz's stock price has risen 10%. That's 20% outperformance! Clearly, investors have shifted to a risk-off mentality. But here's the thing: You shouldn't sell indiscriminately, and you shouldn't buy that way, either.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>正如上面的圖表所示，在過去一個月中，納斯達克綜合指數下跌了約 10%（截至本文撰寫時），而卡夫亨氏的股價上漲了 10%。這意味着 20% 的超額收益！顯然，投資者已經轉向風險規避的心態。但問題是：你不應該無差別地出售，也不應該以這種方式購買。</p>
</div><p>Kraft Heinz's dividend yield is around 5% compared to the consumer staples average of roughly 2.6%. It has a higher yield for a reason. Kraft Heinz's business hasn't been performing all that well. This isn't a new trend -- the company has been facing headwinds since Kraft and Heinz tied the knot several years ago.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>卡夫亨氏的股息收益率約為 5%，而消費品行業的平均收益率約為 2.6%。它的收益率更高是有原因的。卡夫亨氏的業務表現並不好。這並不是一個新趨勢——自從卡夫與亨氏幾年前合併以來，公司一直面臨逆風。</p>
</div><p>The original goal of the merger was to cut costs to improve profitability. But you can only cut costs so far before you need a new plan. After a management shake-up, Kraft Heinz switched gears to focus on its largest and most important brands. That's the same plan that helped <strong>Procter &amp; Gamble</strong> get back on the growth path. It seems like a reasonable path forward for Kraft Heinz, too.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>合併的最初目標是削減成本以提高盈利能力。但你只能削減成本到一定程度，然後就需要一個新計劃。在管理層動盪之後，卡夫亨氏轉變了方向，專注於其最大和最重要的品牌。這與 <strong>寶潔</strong> 重新走上增長軌道的計劃相同。對卡夫亨氏來説，這似乎也是一條合理的前進道路。</p>
</div><p>The only problem is that the brands Kraft Heinz is supposed to be spending all of its time and money supporting haven't been doing very well. In the fourth quarter of 2024, organic sales for its &#34;accelerate&#34; brands fell 5.2%. That follows a 4.5% drop in the third quarter and a 2.4% decline in the second quarter. Same-store sales rose 0.5% in the first quarter of 2024. The clear trend is worse performance, not better.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>唯一的問題是，卡夫亨氏應該花費所有時間和金錢支持的品牌表現並不好。在 2024 年第四季度，其 “加速” 品牌的有機銷售下降了 5.2%。這緊隨其後的是第三季度下降 4.5% 和第二季度下降 2.4%。2024 年第一季度同店銷售增長了 0.5%。明顯的趨勢是表現變差，而不是變好。</p>
</div><p>Given enough time, it seems highly likely that Kraft Heinz will eventually turn its business around and get back on the growth path. But right now, it is simply not hitting on all cylinders. This is clearly not a safe haven just because it is a food maker. This is a turnaround story, which is a higher-risk approach than most investors should be pursuing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>給足夠的時間，卡夫亨氏最終很可能會扭轉業務，重新走上增長軌道。但現在，它顯然並沒有全面發力。僅僅因為它是一家食品製造商，這並不意味着它是一個安全的避風港。這是一個轉型故事，這比大多數投資者應該追求的風險更高。</p>
</div><h2>There are other options to choose from</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>還有其他選擇可供選擇</h2>
</div><p>If you want to jump into the consumer staples sector in an effort to keep safe during a market correction (or worse), you would probably be better off buying an exchange-traded fund (ETF), like the <strong>Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF</strong>. That will at least provide you with a diversified portfolio of companies that make everyday life necessities. If you want to cherry-pick stocks, Kraft Heinz probably isn't the best option given its weak business fundamentals. Perhaps a still strongly performing Dividend King like <strong>Coca-Cola</strong> or <strong>PepsiCo</strong> would be a better choice.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果你想在市場修正（或更糟糕的情況下）期間跳入消費品行業以保持安全，購買一個交易所交易基金（ETF），如 <strong>消費品精選行業 SPDR ETF</strong>，可能會更好。這樣至少可以為你提供一個多樣化的日常生活必需品公司的投資組合。如果你想挑選股票，考慮到卡夫亨氏的基本面疲弱，它可能不是最佳選擇。也許像 <strong>可口可樂</strong> 或 <strong>百事可樂</strong> 這樣的表現仍然強勁的 “股息之王” 會是更好的選擇。</p>
</div>

納斯達克調整：這隻高收益股息股票是避險的正確選擇嗎？