<p>截至目前，<strong>英偉達</strong>(NVDA -5.07%) 的股價年初至今下跌了 20%，在 2025 年開局不佳，儘管其芯片業務依然表現強勁。市場是否在預測生成性人工智能（AI）熱潮的結束？讓我們深入探討一下未來九個月可能會給行業領導者帶來什麼。</p>
<h2>第四季度財報表現尚可</h2>
<p>當一家公司的股票開始下跌時，很容易將其歸咎於運營表現不佳。但英偉達並非如此。第四季度財報顯示，該公司依然表現強勁。收入同比飆升 78%，達到創紀錄的 393 億美元，這得益於其數據中心業務的強勁表現，該業務為運行和訓練大型語言模型（LLMs）製造先進的 AI 芯片。</p>
<p>雖然英偉達最初是一家遊戲芯片設計公司，但昂貴的數據中心硬件已成為其主要收入來源。其最新的 AI 芯片 Blackwell，每個單元的估計成本高達 3 萬到 5 萬美元。但這些新產品在功率和效率方面相比前代產品有顯著提升，可能使客户在使用時節省成本。根據首席執行官黃仁勳的説法，需求 “瘋狂”。</p>
<p>儘管如此，情況並非一帆風順。英偉達在第四季度的毛利率下降了三個百分點（降至 73%），但這可能是由於推出新 Blackwell 芯片時面臨的暫時挑戰。管理層預計這一趨勢將在第一季度繼續，毛利率將降至 71%，因為生產正在加速。</p>
<h2>市場並不買賬</h2>
<p>截至撰寫時，英偉達的股價自 2 月 26 日發佈財報以來下跌了 14%。這一下跌表明，儘管公司增長率高且 Blackwell 芯片成功推出，市場對其並不太滿意。有些人可能將此歸咎於毛利率下降。然而，更大的挑戰可能來自長期需求。</p>
<p>在 2 月份，微軟震驚了科技界，取消了在美國的一些數據中心租約。這家軟件巨頭被認為是英偉達的主要客户之一，減少其數據中心容量可能表明其希望降低對該行業的依賴。</p>
<p>雖然微軟可能不會放棄 AI，但其首席執行官薩提亞·納德拉暗示，這項技術尚未創造出太多有意義的價值。如果行業領導者公開表示如此，其他英偉達客户（如 <strong>字母表</strong> 和 <strong>Meta Platforms</strong>）可能在背後也有同樣的感覺。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTA1MTEvZXhjaXRlZC1pbnZlc3Rvci1sb29rcy1hdC1maW5hbmNpYWwtY2hhcnRzLW9uLWNvbXB1dGVyLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTA1MTEvZXhjaXRlZC1pbnZlc3Rvci1sb29rcy1hdC1maW5hbmNpYWwtY2hhcnRzLW9uLWNvbXB1dGVyLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<p>另一個主要英偉達客户 OpenAI 發出的進一步警報。上個月，這家生成性 AI 初創公司與 <strong>台積電</strong> 達成協議，設計自己的定製芯片，以減少對第三方供應商的依賴。定製芯片是為特定工作負載設計的，因此它們的組件更少，成本更低，效率更高，相比之下，英偉達通常提供的通用 GPU 則顯得不夠高效。</p>
<p>如果主要客户縮減其 AI 投資並轉向定製芯片，英偉達的增長潛力可能會受到嚴重削弱。</p>
<h2>英偉達的未來如何？</h2>
<p>英偉達的市值為 2.6 萬億美元，已經是一家巨頭公司。未來的上行空間看起來有限，尤其是隨着投資者對毛利率下降和潛在需求減少等挑戰的關注加劇。儘管如此，股價在 2025 年也不太可能崩潰。</p>
<p>以僅 25.5 的前瞻市盈率（P/E）計算，英偉達的股價僅略高於 <strong>納斯達克 100</strong> 的 25 的估計，使其相對便宜，降低了下行風險。除非宏觀經濟條件嚴重惡化，例如經濟衰退，否則該股今年可能會保持平穩。</p>

英偉達

<p>英偉達的股票今年迄今已下跌 20%，儘管其第四季度財報顯示收入增長 78%，達到 393 億美元，這主要得益於其人工智能芯片業務。然而，毛利率下降和潛在需求減弱引發了擔憂，尤其是在微軟減少數據中心租賃和 OpenAI 宣佈定製芯片計劃之後。英偉達的市值為 2.6 萬億美元，未來增長似乎有限，但其股票仍相對便宜，前瞻市盈率為 25.5，表明除非宏觀經濟條件惡化，否則公司將保持穩定</p>

<p>With shares down 20% year to date, <strong>Nvidia</strong>(NVDA -5.07%) has been off to a bad start in 2025, even though its chip business continues to fire on all cylinders. Is the market predicting an end to the generative artificial intelligence (AI) hype cycle? Let's dig deeper to determine what the next nine months might have in store for the industry's leader.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至目前，<strong>英偉達</strong>(NVDA -5.07%) 的股價年初至今下跌了 20%，在 2025 年開局不佳，儘管其芯片業務依然表現強勁。市場是否在預測生成性人工智能（AI）熱潮的結束？讓我們深入探討一下未來九個月可能會給行業領導者帶來什麼。</p>
</div><h2>Fourth-quarter earnings were not bad</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>第四季度財報表現尚可</h2>
</div><p>When a company's stock starts falling, it's easy to blame poor operational performance. But that hasn't been the case for Nvidia. Fourth-quarter earnings show a business that is still firing on all cylinders. Revenue soared 78% from a year ago to a quarterly record of $39.3 billion, driven by strength in the company's data center segment, where it makes advanced AI chips for running and training large language models (LLMs).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>當一家公司的股票開始下跌時，很容易將其歸咎於運營表現不佳。但英偉達並非如此。第四季度財報顯示，該公司依然表現強勁。收入同比飆升 78%，達到創紀錄的 393 億美元，這得益於其數據中心業務的強勁表現，該業務為運行和訓練大型語言模型（LLMs）製造先進的 AI 芯片。</p>
</div><p>While Nvidia started as a gaming chip designer, expensive data center hardware has become its bread and butter. Its latest AI chip, Blackwell, is estimated to cost a whopping $30,000 to $50,000 per unit. But these new products boast dramatic improvements in power and efficiency compared to their predecessors, potentially allowing clients to save money using them. According to CEO Jensen Huang, demand is &#34;insane.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>雖然英偉達最初是一家遊戲芯片設計公司，但昂貴的數據中心硬件已成為其主要收入來源。其最新的 AI 芯片 Blackwell，每個單元的估計成本高達 3 萬到 5 萬美元。但這些新產品在功率和效率方面相比前代產品有顯著提升，可能使客户在使用時節省成本。根據首席執行官黃仁勳的説法，需求 “瘋狂”。</p>
</div><p>That said, everything isn't peaches and cream. Nvidia experienced a three-point drop in fourth-quarter gross margins (to 73%), but that was likely because of temporary challenges associated with the rollout of its new Blackwell chips. Management expects the trend to continue in the first quarter, with gross margins dropping to 71% as it ramps up production.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管如此，情況並非一帆風順。英偉達在第四季度的毛利率下降了三個百分點（降至 73%），但這可能是由於推出新 Blackwell 芯片時面臨的暫時挑戰。管理層預計這一趨勢將在第一季度繼續，毛利率將降至 71%，因為生產正在加速。</p>
</div><h2>The market isn't impressed</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>市場並不買賬</h2>
</div><p>At the time of writing, Nvidia's shares are down 14% from the release of earnings on Feb. 26. This dip suggests the market isn't very impressed with the company despite its high growth rate and the successful rollout of its Blackwell chips. Some might blame this on the falling gross margins. However, the bigger challenge may come from long-term demand.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至撰寫時，英偉達的股價自 2 月 26 日發佈財報以來下跌了 14%。這一下跌表明，儘管公司增長率高且 Blackwell 芯片成功推出，市場對其並不太滿意。有些人可能將此歸咎於毛利率下降。然而，更大的挑戰可能來自長期需求。</p>
</div><p>In February, Microsoft shocked the tech world when it scrapped some leases for data centers in the U.S. The software giant is believed to be one of Nvidia's top consumers, and a reduction in its data center capacity could indicate a desire to reduce its exposure to the industry.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2 月份，微軟震驚了科技界，取消了在美國的一些數據中心租約。這家軟件巨頭被認為是英偉達的主要客户之一，減少其數據中心容量可能表明其希望降低對該行業的依賴。</p>
</div><p>While Microsoft probably won't give up on AI, its CEO, Satya Nadella, suggests the technology isn't creating much meaningful value yet. If one of the industry leaders says this openly, other Nvidia clients (such as <strong>Alphabet</strong> and <strong>Meta Platforms</strong>) may feel the same way behind the scenes.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>雖然微軟可能不會放棄 AI，但其首席執行官薩提亞·納德拉暗示，這項技術尚未創造出太多有意義的價值。如果行業領導者公開表示如此，其他英偉達客户（如 <strong>字母表</strong> 和 <strong>Meta Platforms</strong>）可能在背後也有同樣的感覺。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTA1MTEvZXhjaXRlZC1pbnZlc3Rvci1sb29rcy1hdC1maW5hbmNpYWwtY2hhcnRzLW9uLWNvbXB1dGVyLmpwZyZ3PTcwMA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F810511%2Fexcited-investor-looks-at-financial-charts-on-computer.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><p>Further alarm bells are coming from another major Nvidia client, OpenAI. Last month, the generative AI start-up finalized a design with <strong>TSMC</strong> to make its own custom chips to reduce its reliance on third-party suppliers. Custom chips are designed for specialized workloads, so they have fewer unnecessary components, making them cheaper and more efficient compared to the one-size-fits-all GPUs typically provided by Nvidia.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另一個主要英偉達客户 OpenAI 發出的進一步警報。上個月，這家生成性 AI 初創公司與 <strong>台積電</strong> 達成協議，設計自己的定製芯片，以減少對第三方供應商的依賴。定製芯片是為特定工作負載設計的，因此它們的組件更少，成本更低，效率更高，相比之下，英偉達通常提供的通用 GPU 則顯得不夠高效。</p>
</div><p>If major clients scale back their AI investments and turn to custom chips, Nvidia's growth potential could be seriously eroded.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果主要客户縮減其 AI 投資並轉向定製芯片，英偉達的增長潛力可能會受到嚴重削弱。</p>
</div><h2>What's next for Nvidia?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>英偉達的未來如何？</h2>
</div><p>With a market cap of $2.6 trillion, Nvidia is already a huge company. And future upside looks limited, especially as investors become more concerned with challenges like falling gross margins and potential demand erosion. That said, shares also look unlikely to crash in 2025.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英偉達的市值為 2.6 萬億美元，已經是一家巨頭公司。未來的上行空間看起來有限，尤其是隨着投資者對毛利率下降和潛在需求減少等挑戰的關注加劇。儘管如此，股價在 2025 年也不太可能崩潰。</p>
</div><p>With a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of just 25.5, Nvidia shares are valued only slightly higher than the <strong>Nasdaq-100</strong> estimate of 25, making them quite affordable and reducing the risk of downside. The stock is likely to remain flat this year unless there is a severe deterioration in macroeconomic conditions, such as a recession.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>以僅 25.5 的前瞻市盈率（P/E）計算，英偉達的股價僅略高於 <strong>納斯達克 100</strong> 的 25 的估計，使其相對便宜，降低了下行風險。除非宏觀經濟條件嚴重惡化，例如經濟衰退，否則該股今年可能會保持平穩。</p>
</div>

Will Nvidia Stock Keep Dropping in 2025?

- Nvidia 股價年初至今下跌 20%，儘管其芯片業務表現強勁。  
- 第四季度營收同比增長 78%，達到 393 億美元，主要受數據中心業務推動。  
- 但市場對未來需求感到擔憂，部分客户如微軟和 OpenAI 可能減少對 Nvidia 的依賴。  

英偉達的股票在 2025 年會繼續下跌嗎？