<p>華爾街的情況迅速惡化，<strong>標準普爾 500 指數</strong>(^GSPC -1.39%) 在週四與 <strong>納斯達克綜合指數</strong>(^IXIC -1.96%) 一起進入了調整區間。領先的市場指數在短短三週內下跌了 10.1%。儘管經歷了兩年多的牛市，股票估值飆升至高位，市場策略師在 2025 年初仍持有普遍樂觀的展望。然而，經濟數據的疲軟和唐納德·特朗普總統的貿易戰使市場陷入混亂。投資者對衰退甚至滯漲的可能性越來越擔憂。</p>
<p>鑑於這些新的經濟逆風，自然會想知道：美聯儲會很快恢復降息以提供一些刺激嗎？</p>
<h2>降息的可能性增加</h2>
<p>美聯儲在去年開始降息，此前其加息行動成功地顯著降低了美國的通脹率。隨着其關注點轉向高利率對勞動力市場的影響，聯邦公開市場委員會（FOMC）在 9 月會議上將基準聯邦基金利率下調了 50 個基點（即 0.5 個百分點），隨後在 11 月會議上又下調了 25 個基點。</p>
<p>直到最近的數據表明，通脹開始重新加速，這給進一步降息設置了障礙：美聯儲不希望過度刺激經濟而冒着重新點燃高通脹的風險。美聯儲在過去的會議紀要中也承認，它一直在等待特朗普的移民和關税政策如何影響經濟。</p>
<p>許多人預計總統的政策會導致通脹，但到目前為止，經濟數據疲軟，包括勞動力市場惡化和修訂後的國內生產總值預估下降，導致國債收益率下滑。交易員們對聯邦基金利率的預期已經從預計今年零次或最多一次 25 個基點的降息，轉變為（截至週三早上）預計今年將有三次降息。請記住，這些預測是不斷變化的。</p>
<p>美聯儲不希望看到勞動力市場進一步惡化，但如果通脹沒有繼續下降到其偏好的 2% 目標，降息可能會很困難，因為失業率上升和高消費價格的組合可能導致經濟增長緩慢，並形成滯漲的局面。這將使美聯儲陷入困境，因為如果降息，通脹可能加速，但如果加息，失業率可能會繼續上升。投資者可能更害怕滯漲而不是温和的衰退，因為美聯儲可以通過降息來應對衰退條件，這通常對股票有利。</p>
<p>最近，投資者在新數據表明 2 月份通脹放緩超過預期後，得到了更積極的更新。消費者價格指數較上月上升 0.2%，同比上漲 2.8%，這兩個數字均低於預期 0.1%。</p>
<h2>美聯儲會介入嗎？</h2>
<p>FOMC 一直在監測經濟數據以及特朗普政府實施的政策，我懷疑委員會在接下來的幾個月裏會保持當前的路徑。</p>
<p>特朗普裁員、關閉項目和暫停先前批准的聯邦支出，這給其任務增加了困難，這不僅影響聯邦員工，還影響政府承包商及其他人，從而影響美國的就業市場。此外，特朗普在一系列關税問題上反覆搖擺不定；投資者不知道這些關税是作為短期談判策略使用，還是這些對進口商品的高税收會長期存在。特朗普顯然超出了市場的預期，他和財政部長斯科特·貝森特警告稱，美國人應該預期在他利用關税追求目標時會感受到一些痛苦。</p>
<p>我不預計美聯儲在即將到來的 3 月會議上會改變聯邦基金利率，但在接下來的幾個月中，可能會出現降息的條件。如果美國經濟數據持續疲軟，通脹減弱，滯漲擔憂減退，那麼在 FOMC 的 5 月或 6 月會議上，降息可能會成為議程。</p>

納斯達克 OMX 交易所

<p>股市經歷了顯著的拋售，標準普爾 500 指數和納斯達克綜合指數已進入調整區間。對潛在衰退的擔憂以及特朗普總統貿易政策的影響加劇了投資者的焦慮。美聯儲最近已降息，但通脹仍然是一個問題。對進一步降息的預測有所增加，交易員們現在預計今年將有三次降息。美聯儲正在密切關注經濟數據，如果條件改善，可能會考慮降息，但由於持續的貿易緊張局勢和勞動力市場挑戰，不確定性依然存在</p>

<p>Things have gone from bad to worse in a hurry on Wall Street, with the <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong>(^GSPC -1.39%) joining the <strong>Nasdaq Composite</strong>(^IXIC -1.96%) in correction territory on Thursday. The leading market index has fallen 10.1% in just three weeks' time. Despite a two-plus-year bull market that lifted stock valuations to lofty elevations, market strategists came into 2025 with generally positive outlooks. However, weakening economic data and President Donald Trump's trade war have thrown the market into disarray. Investors are increasingly concerned about the possibility of a recession or even stagflation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>華爾街的情況迅速惡化，<strong>標準普爾 500 指數</strong>(^GSPC -1.39%) 在週四與 <strong>納斯達克綜合指數</strong>(^IXIC -1.96%) 一起進入了調整區間。領先的市場指數在短短三週內下跌了 10.1%。儘管經歷了兩年多的牛市，股票估值飆升至高位，市場策略師在 2025 年初仍持有普遍樂觀的展望。然而，經濟數據的疲軟和唐納德·特朗普總統的貿易戰使市場陷入混亂。投資者對衰退甚至滯漲的可能性越來越擔憂。</p>
</div><p>In light of all these fresh economic headwinds, it's natural to wonder: Will the Federal Reserve resume cutting interest rates soon to provide some stimulus?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>鑑於這些新的經濟逆風，自然會想知道：美聯儲會很快恢復降息以提供一些刺激嗎？</p>
</div><h2>The odds of cuts have increased</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>降息的可能性增加</h2>
</div><p>The Federal Reserve began cutting interest rates last year after its previous rate-hiking campaign succeeded in significantly reducing the U.S. inflation rate. With its concerns shifting toward the impact of higher interest rates on the labor market, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) cut the benchmark federal funds rate by 50 basis points (half of a percentage point) at its September meeting, followed by a cut of 25 basis points at its November meeting.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美聯儲在去年開始降息，此前其加息行動成功地顯著降低了美國的通脹率。隨着其關注點轉向高利率對勞動力市場的影響，聯邦公開市場委員會（FOMC）在 9 月會議上將基準聯邦基金利率下調了 50 個基點（即 0.5 個百分點），隨後在 11 月會議上又下調了 25 個基點。</p>
</div><p>Data up until very recently has shown that inflation was beginning to reaccelerate, which put an obstacle in the way of further rate cuts: The Fed doesn't want to overstimulate the economy and risk reigniting high inflation. The Fed also acknowledged in past meeting minutes that it has been waiting to see how Trump's policies related to immigration and tariffs end up affecting the economy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>直到最近的數據表明，通脹開始重新加速，這給進一步降息設置了障礙：美聯儲不希望過度刺激經濟而冒着重新點燃高通脹的風險。美聯儲在過去的會議紀要中也承認，它一直在等待特朗普的移民和關税政策如何影響經濟。</p>
</div><p>Many expected that the president's policies would be inflationary, but so far, weaker economic data, including a worsening labor market and lower revised gross domestic product estimates, have sent Treasury yields downward. Traders betting on the outlook for the federal funds rate have gone from penciling in zero or maybe one 25-basis-point rate cut this year to expecting (on average) three such cuts this year (as of Wednesday morning). Keep in mind that these predictions are constantly changing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>許多人預計總統的政策會導致通脹，但到目前為止，經濟數據疲軟，包括勞動力市場惡化和修訂後的國內生產總值預估下降，導致國債收益率下滑。交易員們對聯邦基金利率的預期已經從預計今年零次或最多一次 25 個基點的降息，轉變為（截至週三早上）預計今年將有三次降息。請記住，這些預測是不斷變化的。</p>
</div><p>The Fed doesn't want to see further deterioration in the labor market, but it could be difficult to cut interest rates if inflation doesn't continue to fall toward its preferred 2% target because the combination of rising unemployment and high consumer prices can lead to slow economic growth and create a scenario known as stagflation. That would put the Fed in a bind because if it cuts rates, inflation could accelerate, but if it raises rates, unemployment is likely to keep climbing. Investors are likely to fear stagflation more than a modest recession because the Fed can fight back against recessionary conditions by cutting interest rates, which is often good for stocks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美聯儲不希望看到勞動力市場進一步惡化，但如果通脹沒有繼續下降到其偏好的 2% 目標，降息可能會很困難，因為失業率上升和高消費價格的組合可能導致經濟增長緩慢，並形成滯漲的局面。這將使美聯儲陷入困境，因為如果降息，通脹可能加速，但如果加息，失業率可能會繼續上升。投資者可能更害怕滯漲而不是温和的衰退，因為美聯儲可以通過降息來應對衰退條件，這通常對股票有利。</p>
</div><p>Investors recently got a more positive update after new data showed that inflation slowed more than expected in February. The Consumer Price Index rose 0.2% from the prior month and was up 2.8% year over year, with both numbers coming in 0.1% below estimates.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最近，投資者在新數據表明 2 月份通脹放緩超過預期後，得到了更積極的更新。消費者價格指數較上月上升 0.2%，同比上漲 2.8%，這兩個數字均低於預期 0.1%。</p>
</div><h2>Will the Fed step in?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>美聯儲會介入嗎？</h2>
</div><p>The FOMC has been monitoring economic data as well as the policies implemented by the Trump administration, and I suspect the committee will stay on its current path for the next few months.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>FOMC 一直在監測經濟數據以及特朗普政府實施的政策，我懷疑委員會在接下來的幾個月裏會保持當前的路徑。</p>
</div><p>Adding difficulty to its task is that Trump is laying off federal workers, closing programs, and halting previously approved federal spending, all of which not only impacts federal employees but also government contractors and others in ways that will impact the U.S. job market. Furthermore, Trump has repeatedly gone back and forth on a host of tariffs; investors have no idea whether they are being used as a short-term negotiating tactic or whether those higher taxes on imported goods will be here to stay long-term. Trump has clearly gone further than the market expected, and he and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent have warned that Americans should expect to feel some pain as he uses tariffs to pursue his goals.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特朗普裁員、關閉項目和暫停先前批准的聯邦支出，這給其任務增加了困難，這不僅影響聯邦員工，還影響政府承包商及其他人，從而影響美國的就業市場。此外，特朗普在一系列關税問題上反覆搖擺不定；投資者不知道這些關税是作為短期談判策略使用，還是這些對進口商品的高税收會長期存在。特朗普顯然超出了市場的預期，他和財政部長斯科特·貝森特警告稱，美國人應該預期在他利用關税追求目標時會感受到一些痛苦。</p>
</div><p>I don't expect the Fed to make a change to the federal funds rate at its upcoming March meeting, but it's possible that conditions that justify interest rate cuts will come into view over the next few months. If U.S. economic data remains weak, inflation softens, and stagflation concerns fade, an interest rate cut may be on the table at the FOMC's May or June meetings.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我不預計美聯儲在即將到來的 3 月會議上會改變聯邦基金利率，但在接下來的幾個月中，可能會出現降息的條件。如果美國經濟數據持續疲軟，通脹減弱，滯漲擔憂減退，那麼在 FOMC 的 5 月或 6 月會議上，降息可能會成為議程。</p>
</div>

Stock Market Sell-Off: Will the Federal Reserve Soon Step in With Interest Rate Cuts?

- 標普 500 指數和納斯達克綜合指數已進入調整區間，分別下跌 1.39% 和 1.96%。  
- 投資者擔憂經濟衰退和滯漲，預計美聯儲可能在未來幾個月內降息。  
- 近期數據顯示通脹放緩，可能為降息創造條件。  

股市拋售：美聯儲是否會很快採取降息措施進行干預？