<p><strong>亞馬遜</strong>（AMZN -1.45%）在牛市期間表現出色，去年上漲了 44%，因為投資者紛紛湧向成長型企業和那些投資於可能改變遊戲規則的人工智能（AI）技術的公司。這家科技和消費品巨頭憑藉其雲計算和電子商務業務，擁有長期的盈利增長記錄，並且已經從其人工智能投資中受益。去年，亞馬遜的雲業務報告了 1150 億美元的年化收入運行率。因此，該公司確實證明了自己在近期是一個值得擁有的優秀股票。</p>
<p>但隨着對未來經濟和特朗普總統關税影響的疑問不斷增加，你可能會想知道亞馬遜是否能夠抵禦即將到來的潛在風暴。現在説經濟是否會保持一定的強度、減弱，甚至滑入衰退區間還為時尚早——但無論經濟在某一時刻的表現如何，考慮一隻股票的 “抗衰退” 潛力總是一個好主意。而那些具備應對艱難時期並繼續增長能力的公司，值得在你的投資組合中佔有一席之地。</p>
<p>那麼，亞馬遜是否抗衰退呢？讓我們從歷史中尋找一些線索。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTE1NzkvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTE4Njk1NzY2MC5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTE1NzkvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTE4Njk1NzY2MC5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>亞馬遜的轉型</h2>
<p>在考慮歷史時，重要的是要注意，像亞馬遜這樣的成長型公司今天可能與過去的樣子並不完全相同。例如，亞馬遜在 1990 年代中期起初是一家在線書店，後來擴展到其他產品和業務，並且在 2006 年才推出其主要的利潤驅動業務——亞馬遜網絡服務（AWS）。</p>
<p>所有這些意味着，今天的亞馬遜在應對衰退時可能與昨天的亞馬遜有所不同。亞馬遜每年產生數十億美元的收益，並且擁有應對危機的財務資源，這一點是積極的。但另一方面，其業務比早期更加複雜——例如，運營一個龐大的全球履約網絡——使其在某些經濟壓力下（如更高的通貨膨脹）變得更加脆弱。</p>
<p>儘管如此，歷史可以為我們提供某種類型的企業在艱難時期的表現和應對方式的一般感知。因此，讓我們看看亞馬遜在過去三次衰退期間的表現。</p>
<p>最近的一次是 COVID-19 衰退，這次衰退持續時間相對較短，僅在 2020 年持續了兩個月。顧名思義，它是由疫情引發的——這場健康危機導致了企業的臨時關閉和供應鏈的中斷。</p>
<p>以下是亞馬遜在那段時間的表現，圖表中的陰影部分代表衰退期。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/6e40c7a56eddc84920016fed0c8b7c07.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/6e40c7a56eddc84920016fed0c8b7c07.png"/></p>
<p>AMZN 數據來源於 YCharts</p>
<h2>亞馬遜在大衰退期間的表現</h2>
<p>在得出任何結論之前，讓我們考慮一下之前的衰退。下一個最近的衰退是大衰退，持續時間從 2007 年到 2009 年，與次貸危機和整體房地產市場崩潰有關。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/b71cf24abf0fb8b7a16b6d0b0c502633.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/b71cf24abf0fb8b7a16b6d0b0c502633.png"/></p>
<p>AMZN 數據來源於 YCharts</p>
<p>最後，讓我們看看互聯網泡沫破裂，或被高估的科技股崩潰，這導致了 2001 年的市場崩盤。而 9·11 恐怖襲擊進一步加大了市場壓力。</p>
<p>以下是亞馬遜在那段時間及隨後的兩年中的表現。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/9569953b52ec51b5829b8cfec0bd691d.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/9569953b52ec51b5829b8cfec0bd691d.png"/></p>
<p>AMZN 數據來源於 YCharts</p>
<p>觀察這三張圖表顯示出相似的模式。是的，亞馬遜在衰退期間下跌，但在衰退結束時或緊接着衰退後，股票反彈並繼續上漲。這本身就為我們在未來任何潛在的衰退中對亞馬遜保持樂觀提供了理由——但我還有另一個積極的觀點要補充。</p>
<h2>從高通脹中學習的教訓</h2>
<p>幾年前，隨着通貨膨脹飆升，亞馬遜在隨之而來的成本壓力下掙扎，甚至報告了近十年來的首次年度虧損。然而，重要的是，該公司採取了行動。這家科技巨頭重新調整了其成本結構，裁減了員工，並在其履約網絡中精簡了流程——一個關鍵的變化是從全國履約模式轉向區域履約模式。這一將庫存更靠近客户的舉措正在幫助亞馬遜降低服務成本，公司表示在這一領域仍在不斷改進。</p>
<p>這種成本結構的重組使得亞馬遜在歷史上即使在衰退期間也證明了其實力，現在處於更有利的位置。憑藉改善的成本控制能力，亞馬遜可以更輕鬆地應對經濟放緩，並限制對收益的影響。因此，歷史表明亞馬遜能夠在最艱難的時期中前進——而近年來公司所做的舉措進一步鞏固了這一點，使其成為一個極好的抗衰退股票，值得加入你的投資組合。</p>

亞馬遜

<p>亞馬遜在之前的經濟衰退期間表現強勁，包括 COVID-19 衰退、大蕭條和互聯網泡沫破裂。儘管面臨通貨膨脹等挑戰，公司通過重組成本結構和精簡運營進行了適應。這使得亞馬遜在應對潛在經濟下滑時處於有利位置。歷史上，儘管亞馬遜的股票在衰退期間可能會下跌，但通常會在之後反彈，這表明其作為潛在抗衰退股票的韌性</p>

<p><strong>Amazon</strong>(AMZN -1.45%) has been a top performer during the bull market, gaining 44% last year as investors piled into growth players and companies investing in the potentially game-changing technology of artificial intelligence (AI). This tech and consumer goods giant has a long track record of earnings growth thanks to its cloud computing and e-commerce businesses, and it's already benefiting from its AI investment. Last year, Amazon's cloud business reported a $115 billion annualized revenue run rate. So, the company truly has proven itself to be a great stock to own in recent times.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>亞馬遜</strong>（AMZN -1.45%）在牛市期間表現出色，去年上漲了 44%，因為投資者紛紛湧向成長型企業和那些投資於可能改變遊戲規則的人工智能（AI）技術的公司。這家科技和消費品巨頭憑藉其雲計算和電子商務業務，擁有長期的盈利增長記錄，並且已經從其人工智能投資中受益。去年，亞馬遜的雲業務報告了 1150 億美元的年化收入運行率。因此，該公司確實證明了自己在近期是一個值得擁有的優秀股票。</p>
</div><p>But with questions mounting about the economy ahead and the impact of President Trump's tariffs, you may be wondering if Amazon can weather any potential storm on the horizon. It's too early to say whether the economy will maintain a certain level of strength, weaken, or even slip into recession territory -- but no matter what the economy is doing at a given time, it's always a good idea to consider a stock's &#34;recession-resistant&#34; potential. And some of those players that do have what it takes to manage tough times and go on to grow deserve a spot in your portfolio.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但隨着對未來經濟和特朗普總統關税影響的疑問不斷增加，你可能會想知道亞馬遜是否能夠抵禦即將到來的潛在風暴。現在説經濟是否會保持一定的強度、減弱，甚至滑入衰退區間還為時尚早——但無論經濟在某一時刻的表現如何，考慮一隻股票的 “抗衰退” 潛力總是一個好主意。而那些具備應對艱難時期並繼續增長能力的公司，值得在你的投資組合中佔有一席之地。</p>
</div><p>So, is Amazon recession-resistant? Let's look to history for some clues.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>那麼，亞馬遜是否抗衰退呢？讓我們從歷史中尋找一些線索。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTE1NzkvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTE4Njk1NzY2MC5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F811579%2Fgettyimages-1186957660.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Amazon's transformation</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>亞馬遜的轉型</h2>
</div><p>When considering history, it's important to note that a growth company such as Amazon may not be the exact same player today that it was in the past. For example, Amazon started out as an online bookseller in the mid-1990s, later expanded into other products and businesses, and only launched its big profit driver -- Amazon Web Services (AWS) -- in 2006.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在考慮歷史時，重要的是要注意，像亞馬遜這樣的成長型公司今天可能與過去的樣子並不完全相同。例如，亞馬遜在 1990 年代中期起初是一家在線書店，後來擴展到其他產品和業務，並且在 2006 年才推出其主要的利潤驅動業務——亞馬遜網絡服務（AWS）。</p>
</div><p>All this means the Amazon of today may handle a recession differently than the Amazon of yesterday. Amazon generates billions of dollars in earnings and has the financial resources to manage a crisis, and that's positive. But, on the downside, the fact that its business is much more complex -- operating a massive global fulfillment network, for example -- than it was in the early days makes it more vulnerable to certain economic pressures such as higher inflation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>所有這些意味着，今天的亞馬遜在應對衰退時可能與昨天的亞馬遜有所不同。亞馬遜每年產生數十億美元的收益，並且擁有應對危機的財務資源，這一點是積極的。但另一方面，其業務比早期更加複雜——例如，運營一個龐大的全球履約網絡——使其在某些經濟壓力下（如更高的通貨膨脹）變得更加脆弱。</p>
</div><p>Still, history can offer us a general sense of how a certain type of business has fared -- and has managed -- difficult times. So, let's take a look at Amazon's performance during the past three recession periods.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管如此，歷史可以為我們提供某種類型的企業在艱難時期的表現和應對方式的一般感知。因此，讓我們看看亞馬遜在過去三次衰退期間的表現。</p>
</div><p>The most recent was the COVID-19 recession, which was rather short-lived, as it lasted just two months in 2020. As its name implies, it was sparked by the pandemic -- a health crisis that led to temporary shutdowns of businesses and supply chain disruptions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最近的一次是 COVID-19 衰退，這次衰退持續時間相對較短，僅在 2020 年持續了兩個月。顧名思義，它是由疫情引發的——這場健康危機導致了企業的臨時關閉和供應鏈的中斷。</p>
</div><p>Here's a look at Amazon's performance around that time, with the shaded bar in the chart representing the recession period.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>以下是亞馬遜在那段時間的表現，圖表中的陰影部分代表衰退期。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/6e40c7a56eddc84920016fed0c8b7c07.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/6e40c7a56eddc84920016fed0c8b7c07.png"/></p>
<p>AMZN data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>AMZN 數據來源於 YCharts</p>
</div><h2>Amazon's performance during the Great Recession</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>亞馬遜在大衰退期間的表現</h2>
</div><p>Before drawing any conclusions, let's consider previous recessions. The next-most recent was the Great Recession, spanning 2007 through 2009, and it was linked to the subprime mortgage crisis and a general housing market collapse.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在得出任何結論之前，讓我們考慮一下之前的衰退。下一個最近的衰退是大衰退，持續時間從 2007 年到 2009 年，與次貸危機和整體房地產市場崩潰有關。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/b71cf24abf0fb8b7a16b6d0b0c502633.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/b71cf24abf0fb8b7a16b6d0b0c502633.png"/></p>
<p>AMZN data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>AMZN 數據來源於 YCharts</p>
</div><p>Finally, let's turn to the bursting of the dot-com bubble, or the tumbling of overvalued tech stocks, which led to a crash in 2001. And the Sept. 11 terror attacks added to pressure on the market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最後，讓我們看看互聯網泡沫破裂，或被高估的科技股崩潰，這導致了 2001 年的市場崩盤。而 9·11 恐怖襲擊進一步加大了市場壓力。</p>
</div><p>Here's how Amazon performed at that time, and in the following two years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>以下是亞馬遜在那段時間及隨後的兩年中的表現。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/9569953b52ec51b5829b8cfec0bd691d.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/9569953b52ec51b5829b8cfec0bd691d.png"/></p>
<p>AMZN data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>AMZN 數據來源於 YCharts</p>
</div><p>A look at all three of these charts shows a similar pattern. Yes, Amazon fell during the recession periods, but toward the end or immediately after the recession, the stock rebounded and went on to gain. That alone offers us reason to be optimistic about Amazon during any potential recession down the road -- but I've got another positive point to add.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>觀察這三張圖表顯示出相似的模式。是的，亞馬遜在衰退期間下跌，但在衰退結束時或緊接着衰退後，股票反彈並繼續上漲。這本身就為我們在未來任何潛在的衰退中對亞馬遜保持樂觀提供了理由——但我還有另一個積極的觀點要補充。</p>
</div><h2>Learning lessons from high inflation</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>從高通脹中學習的教訓</h2>
</div><p>As inflation roared higher a few years ago, Amazon struggled with the resulting costs and even reported its first annual loss in almost a decade. Importantly, though, the company took action. The tech giant revamped its cost structure, cutting jobs and streamlining processes across its fulfillment network -- one key change was the transition from a national fulfillment model to a regional one. This move to bring inventory closer to the customer is helping Amazon reduce its cost to serve, and the company says it continues to make improvements in this area.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>幾年前，隨着通貨膨脹飆升，亞馬遜在隨之而來的成本壓力下掙扎，甚至報告了近十年來的首次年度虧損。然而，重要的是，該公司採取了行動。這家科技巨頭重新調整了其成本結構，裁減了員工，並在其履約網絡中精簡了流程——一個關鍵的變化是從全國履約模式轉向區域履約模式。這一將庫存更靠近客户的舉措正在幫助亞馬遜降低服務成本，公司表示在這一領域仍在不斷改進。</p>
</div><p>This revamping of the cost structure puts Amazon, which through history has proven its strength even during a recession, in an even better position to excel. With an improved ability to control costs, Amazon could more easily manage a slowdown and limit the impact on earnings. So, history shows Amazon's ability to advance through the worst of times -- and moves the company has made in recent years have reinforced this, making it a fantastic recession-resistant stock to add to your portfolio.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這種成本結構的重組使得亞馬遜在歷史上即使在衰退期間也證明了其實力，現在處於更有利的位置。憑藉改善的成本控制能力，亞馬遜可以更輕鬆地應對經濟放緩，並限制對收益的影響。因此，歷史表明亞馬遜能夠在最艱難的時期中前進——而近年來公司所做的舉措進一步鞏固了這一點，使其成為一個極好的抗衰退股票，值得加入你的投資組合。</p>
</div>

Is Amazon a Recession-Resistant Stock? Here's What History Says.

- 亞馬遜在牛市中表現出色，去年增長 44%。
- 儘管面臨經濟不確定性，亞馬遜具備應對衰退的潛力。
- 歷史數據顯示，亞馬遜在歷次衰退後均能反彈並實現增長。

亞馬遜是一隻抗衰退的股票嗎？歷史告訴了我們什麼