<p>在過去幾年中，投資 <strong>Nvidia</strong>(NVDA -3.31%) 股票虧損是相當困難的。大多數情況下，股票的任何拋售都被渴望利用低迷行情的買家所抵消，從而使 Nvidia 的股票迅速回升。</p>
<p>然而，今年情況有些不同。截至 2025 年，Nvidia 的股票已下跌多達 20%。儘管股票略有反彈，但 Nvidia 的股票今年仍然下跌約 9%。</p>
<p>讓我們探討一些影響 Nvidia 股票拋售的核心因素，並評估現在是否是購買股票的好時機。Nvidia 的股票是否可能進一步下跌？</p>
<h2>Nvidia 股票在 2025 年開局不佳，但...</h2>
<p>如下圖所示，2025 年對 Nvidia 投資者並不友好。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/274ec8849521c9664d2c4600112d56b0.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/274ec8849521c9664d2c4600112d56b0.png"/></p>
<p>NVDA 數據來源於 YCharts</p>
<p>大約在 1 月底，Nvidia 的股票因一則震撼報道而開始下滑，該報道指出一家名為 DeepSeek 的中國初創公司在舊款 Nvidia 芯片上構建和訓練其人工智能（AI）模型，這引發了對公司最新架構可行性的質疑。</p>
<p>對 DeepSeek 聲明的擔憂引發了 Nvidia 股票的短暫恐慌性拋售。然而，華爾街的許多分析師和領先的 AI 研究人員在深入挖掘 DeepSeek 的故事後，減輕了這些擔憂。專家們的共識是，DeepSeek 在其 AI 模型上的支出可能遠高於最初報告的金額。</p>
<p>此外，雲計算巨頭 <strong>Amazon</strong>、<strong>Microsoft</strong> 和 <strong>Alphabet</strong>，以及社交媒體領頭羊 <strong>Meta Platforms</strong>，在 DeepSeek 事件中都加大了對 AI 基礎設施的投資計劃。具體而言，這些公司預計在 2025 年將花費超過 3200 億美元用於芯片、數據中心等。</p>
<p>如上圖所示，Nvidia 的股票在 2 月初開始反彈——當時大型科技公司的支出計劃變得更加公開。考慮到我提到的每家公司都與 Nvidia 合作，投資者最初開始擺脱 DeepSeek 的敍述，重新買入 Nvidia 的牛市案例。</p>
<p>儘管如此，股票在 2 月底再次大幅下跌——這一趨勢持續到 3 月。雖然 Nvidia 的最大客户確實計劃在今年大力投資 AI 基礎設施，但並非所有資金都將分配給該公司。Amazon、Microsoft、Alphabet、Meta，甚至 OpenAI 都在探索開發定製硅芯片。</p>
<p>將更多芯片引入 GPU 市場可能會在未來對 Nvidia 施加壓力，尤其是在價格方面。此外，如果大型科技公司開始用自己的定製芯片來補充現有的 Nvidia 基礎設施，那麼 Nvidia 的增長開始放緩是合理的。</p>
<p>最後，Nvidia 股票最近的下跌可能與白宮的新關税政策有關。雖然關於這些關税的具體細節及其可能對貿易的影響仍有很多未知數，但投資者在過去幾周大多在拋售成長股，而 Nvidia 也不例外。</p>
<h2>... 業務仍然處於良好狀態</h2>
<p>儘管 Nvidia 股票今年的每次拋售都有不同的觸發因素，但 DeepSeek 事件、對定製硅的投資增加以及關税的影響有一個共同主題——即每個因素都是一種投機性敍述，而不是會改變 Nvidia 未來的具體、明確的風險。</p>
<p>如果你看看 Nvidia 的基本業務，實際上它的狀況非常良好。在公司的第四財季，其新的 Blackwell GPU 架構產生了 110 億美元的銷售額。這對於其首個完整的營業季度來説，表現相當不錯。</p>
<p>此外，Nvidia 還表示，儘管在 Blackwell 發佈的激烈開發中，其毛利率仍保持在 70% 以上。更令人鼓舞的是，管理層預計毛利率將在今年晚些時候回升至中 70s，這表明隨着 Blackwell 成為公司增長的更關鍵組成部分，Nvidia 仍將保持高水平的經營槓桿。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTEzNTgvZ2V0dHktcGVyc29uLXNocnVnZ2luZy1xdWVzdGlvbmluZy11bnN1cmUtYXNraW5nLW15c3RlcnktY29uZnVzZWQtMS5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTEzNTgvZ2V0dHktcGVyc29uLXNocnVnZ2luZy1xdWVzdGlvbmluZy11bnN1cmUtYXNraW5nLW15c3RlcnktY29uZnVzZWQtMS5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>我對 Nvidia 股票一年後的預測</h2>
<p>據我所知，DeepSeek 的擔憂已經減弱。雖然大型科技公司可能會宣傳他們自己定製芯片的突破，但我認為 Nvidia 的 Blackwell 業績不言而喻。我的意思是，如果大型科技公司確實開始遠離 Nvidia 的芯片組，該公司的當前業績和未來指引表明對 Blackwell 的需求依然強勁。</p>
<p>此外，我認為關於關税的持續爭議不會持續太久。最終，我認為當前政府將達成其認為合理的貿易協議；如果發生這種情況，市場應該會開始看到一些新的生機。</p>
<p>我的預測是，Nvidia 股票將在一年後以驚人的方式反彈，交易價格將比今天高得多。在此之前，我認為現在是利用低迷價格行動的絕佳機會，購買 Nvidia 的股票，享受罕見的折扣價格。</p>

英偉達

<p>英偉達（Nvidia，股票代碼：NVDA）在 2025 年初面臨挑戰，股價下跌 20% 後略有反彈，目前今年累計下跌 9%。市場擔憂來自一家中國初創公司 DeepSeek，該公司 reportedly 在較舊的英偉達技術上訓練 AI 模型，引發了恐慌性拋售。然而，主要科技公司預計將在 AI 基礎設施上投資超過 3200 億美元，這可能對英偉達有利。儘管面臨定製硅開發和新關税的壓力，英偉達的基礎業務依然強勁，其新款 Blackwell GPU 架構的銷售額達到 110 億美元。預測顯示，隨着對 Blackwell 的需求保持強勁，英偉達的股價可能會恢復</p>

<p>It's been pretty hard to lose money investing in <strong>Nvidia</strong>(NVDA -3.31%) stock over the last few years. For the most part, any sell-offs witnessed in the stock were met with buyers eager to take advantage of depressed action -- thereby sending Nvidia stock right back up.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在過去幾年中，投資 <strong>Nvidia</strong>(NVDA -3.31%) 股票虧損是相當困難的。大多數情況下，股票的任何拋售都被渴望利用低迷行情的買家所抵消，從而使 Nvidia 的股票迅速回升。</p>
</div><p>However, this year has been a little bit different. So far in 2025, shares of Nvidia have dropped by as much as 20%. While the stock has rebounded slightly, Nvidia stock is still down by about 9% this year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，今年情況有些不同。截至 2025 年，Nvidia 的股票已下跌多達 20%。儘管股票略有反彈，但 Nvidia 的股票今年仍然下跌約 9%。</p>
</div><p>Let's explore some of the core factors influencing the sell-off in Nvidia stock, and assess if shares are a good buy right now. Could Nvidia stock be headed even lower?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>讓我們探討一些影響 Nvidia 股票拋售的核心因素，並評估現在是否是購買股票的好時機。Nvidia 的股票是否可能進一步下跌？</p>
</div><h2>Nvidia stock has gotten off to a rough start in 2025, but...</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Nvidia 股票在 2025 年開局不佳，但...</h2>
</div><p>As the chart below illustrates, 2025 hasn't been so kind to Nvidia investors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如下圖所示，2025 年對 Nvidia 投資者並不友好。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/274ec8849521c9664d2c4600112d56b0.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/274ec8849521c9664d2c4600112d56b0.png"/></p>
<p>NVDA data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>NVDA 數據來源於 YCharts</p>
</div><p>Around late January, shares of Nvidia started to slide thanks to bombshell reporting that a Chinese start-up called DeepSeek built and trained its artificial intelligence (AI) models on older Nvidia chipware -- calling into question the viability of the company's newest architectures.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>大約在 1 月底，Nvidia 的股票因一則震撼報道而開始下滑，該報道指出一家名為 DeepSeek 的中國初創公司在舊款 Nvidia 芯片上構建和訓練其人工智能（AI）模型，這引發了對公司最新架構可行性的質疑。</p>
</div><p>Concerns around DeepSeek's claims inspired a brief period of panic-selling in Nvidia stock. However, many analysts on Wall Street and leading AI researchers curtailed these concerns after digging deeper into the DeepSeek storyline. The consensus among experts was that DeepSeek likely spent significantly more on its AI model than initially reported.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>對 DeepSeek 聲明的擔憂引發了 Nvidia 股票的短暫恐慌性拋售。然而，華爾街的許多分析師和領先的 AI 研究人員在深入挖掘 DeepSeek 的故事後，減輕了這些擔憂。專家們的共識是，DeepSeek 在其 AI 模型上的支出可能遠高於最初報告的金額。</p>
</div><p>Moreover, cloud hyperscalers <strong>Amazon</strong>, <strong>Microsoft</strong>, and <strong>Alphabet</strong>, as well as social media leader <strong>Meta Platforms</strong>, all doubled down on the AI infrastructure plans in the midst of the DeepSeek saga. Specifically, these companies are forecast to spend more than $320 billion on chipware, data centers, and more just in 2025.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，雲計算巨頭 <strong>Amazon</strong>、<strong>Microsoft</strong> 和 <strong>Alphabet</strong>，以及社交媒體領頭羊 <strong>Meta Platforms</strong>，在 DeepSeek 事件中都加大了對 AI 基礎設施的投資計劃。具體而言，這些公司預計在 2025 年將花費超過 3200 億美元用於芯片、數據中心等。</p>
</div><p>As the chart above shows, Nvidia stock started to rebound during the early parts of February -- once the spending plans from big tech became more public. Considering each of the companies I referenced above works with Nvidia, investors initially started to shake off the DeepSeek narrative and buy back into the bull case around Nvidia.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如上圖所示，Nvidia 的股票在 2 月初開始反彈——當時大型科技公司的支出計劃變得更加公開。考慮到我提到的每家公司都與 Nvidia 合作，投資者最初開始擺脱 DeepSeek 的敍述，重新買入 Nvidia 的牛市案例。</p>
</div><p>With that said, shares took yet another nosedive during the latter portion of February -- a trend that's continued well into March. While Nvidia's biggest customers are indeed planning to invest heavily into AI infrastructure this year, not all of that is going to be allocated toward the company. Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, and even OpenAI are all exploring the development of custom silicon chips.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管如此，股票在 2 月底再次大幅下跌——這一趨勢持續到 3 月。雖然 Nvidia 的最大客户確實計劃在今年大力投資 AI 基礎設施，但並非所有資金都將分配給該公司。Amazon、Microsoft、Alphabet、Meta，甚至 OpenAI 都在探索開發定製硅芯片。</p>
</div><p>Bringing more chipware to the GPU market could put pressure on Nvidia in the future, especially as it relates to price. Furthermore, should big tech companies begin to complement existing Nvidia infrastructure with their own custom chips, it's reasonable to think Nvidia's growth will begin to slow.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>將更多芯片引入 GPU 市場可能會在未來對 Nvidia 施加壓力，尤其是在價格方面。此外，如果大型科技公司開始用自己的定製芯片來補充現有的 Nvidia 基礎設施，那麼 Nvidia 的增長開始放緩是合理的。</p>
</div><p>Lastly, the most recent dip in Nvidia stock can likely be traced to new tariff policies out of the White House. While there are a lot of unknowns around the specifics of these tariffs and how they might influence trade, investors have been largely selling out of growth stocks over the last couple of weeks -- and Nvidia has been no exception.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最後，Nvidia 股票最近的下跌可能與白宮的新關税政策有關。雖然關於這些關税的具體細節及其可能對貿易的影響仍有很多未知數，但投資者在過去幾周大多在拋售成長股，而 Nvidia 也不例外。</p>
</div><h2>... the business is still in great shape</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>... 業務仍然處於良好狀態</h2>
</div><p>Although each sell-off in Nvidia stock this year has had a different trigger, the DeepSeek story, rising investment in custom silicon, and the impacts of tariffs share a common theme -- namely, each is a speculative narrative rather than a concrete, definitive risk that will alter Nvidia's future.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管 Nvidia 股票今年的每次拋售都有不同的觸發因素，但 DeepSeek 事件、對定製硅的投資增加以及關税的影響有一個共同主題——即每個因素都是一種投機性敍述，而不是會改變 Nvidia 未來的具體、明確的風險。</p>
</div><p>If you look at Nvidia's underlying business, it's actually in terrific shape. During the company's fourth fiscal quarter, its new Blackwell GPU architecture generated $11 billion in sales. That's not too shabby for its first full quarter in business.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果你看看 Nvidia 的基本業務，實際上它的狀況非常良好。在公司的第四財季，其新的 Blackwell GPU 架構產生了 110 億美元的銷售額。這對於其首個完整的營業季度來説，表現相當不錯。</p>
</div><p>On top of that, Nvidia boasted that its gross margin remained well above 70% despite aggressive development for the Blackwell launch. What's even more encouraging is that management is guiding for gross margin to return to the mid-70s later this year -- indicating that Nvidia should still command high degrees of operating leverage as Blackwell becomes a more critical component to the company's growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，Nvidia 還表示，儘管在 Blackwell 發佈的激烈開發中，其毛利率仍保持在 70% 以上。更令人鼓舞的是，管理層預計毛利率將在今年晚些時候回升至中 70s，這表明隨着 Blackwell 成為公司增長的更關鍵組成部分，Nvidia 仍將保持高水平的經營槓桿。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTEzNTgvZ2V0dHktcGVyc29uLXNocnVnZ2luZy1xdWVzdGlvbmluZy11bnN1cmUtYXNraW5nLW15c3RlcnktY29uZnVzZWQtMS5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F811358%2Fgetty-person-shrugging-questioning-unsure-asking-mystery-confused-1.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>My prediction for Nvidia stock one year from now</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>我對 Nvidia 股票一年後的預測</h2>
</div><p>As far as I can tell, the DeepSeek concerns have already subsided. While big tech will likely tout breakthroughs in their own custom chipware, I think Nvidia's Blackwell results speak for themselves. What I mean by that is if big tech does in fact migrate away from Nvidia chipsets, the company's current results and future guidance indicate that demand for Blackwell remains strong anyway.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>據我所知，DeepSeek 的擔憂已經減弱。雖然大型科技公司可能會宣傳他們自己定製芯片的突破，但我認為 Nvidia 的 Blackwell 業績不言而喻。我的意思是，如果大型科技公司確實開始遠離 Nvidia 的芯片組，該公司的當前業績和未來指引表明對 Blackwell 的需求依然強勁。</p>
</div><p>In addition, I do not think ongoing disputes over tariffs are going to last very long. Eventually, I think the current administration will reach trade agreements that it finds reasonable; the markets should begin to see some new life should that occur.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，我認為關於關税的持續爭議不會持續太久。最終，我認為當前政府將達成其認為合理的貿易協議；如果發生這種情況，市場應該會開始看到一些新的生機。</p>
</div><p>My prediction is that Nvidia stock will rebound in spectacular fashion and be trading at a much higher price one year from now compared to where it is today. Until then, I think now looks like a great opportunity to take advantage of the depressed price action and scoop up shares of Nvidia at a rarely discounted price point.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我的預測是，Nvidia 股票將在一年後以驚人的方式反彈，交易價格將比今天高得多。在此之前，我認為現在是利用低迷價格行動的絕佳機會，購買 Nvidia 的股票，享受罕見的折扣價格。</p>
</div>

Where Will Nvidia Stock Be in 1 Year?

- 2025 年，Nvidia 股價下跌約 20%，目前仍下滑 9%。  
- 下跌原因包括 DeepSeek 的 AI 模型影響及新關税政策。  
- 儘管面臨挑戰，Nvidia 的基本面依然強勁，未來有望反彈。

英偉達的股票在一年後會達到什麼水平？