<p>對於 <strong>Rivian Automotive</strong>(RIVN 1.29%) 的股票來説，今年的開局並不理想。由於投資者對電動車（EV）增長故事的信心減弱，股價年初至今下跌了 16%。該公司仍處於早期階段，費用高昂，盈利仍然相對遙遠。</p>
<p>人們可能會認為一些投資者會選擇像 <strong>Tesla</strong>(TSLA 4.69%) 這樣的盈利電動車製造商。然而，自年初以來，特斯拉的股價下跌幅度是前者的兩倍。但特斯拉的故事更為龐大。到目前為止，其股價在 2025 年下跌了 42%，這發生在去年 11 月美國選舉後的一次巨大的上漲之後。</p>
<p>希望在仍在增長的電動車行業中獲得投資機會的投資者，現在面臨一個有趣的選擇。擁有 Rivian 這樣強大且不斷增長的品牌以及高長期潛力是否有意義？還是應該基於特斯拉現有的盈利能力和超越當前電動車系列的前景，趁機買入特斯拉的股票？</p>
<h2>電動車、人工智能及更多</h2>
<p>特斯拉的投資者一直在關注現有電動車銷售之外的領域。即使在這家電動車製造商剛開始大規模銷售時，首席執行官埃隆·馬斯克也大膽預測到 2030 年公司將每年生產 2000 萬輛汽車。隨着競爭加劇和電動車市場滲透速度低於預期，馬斯克已經對這一説法有所收斂。</p>
<p>但投資者對特斯拉股票的估值曾高得離譜，似乎假設馬斯克的電動車銷售預測會實現。現在，該公司擁有一個穩定且盈利的電動車業務。即使在被認為是失望的一年，特斯拉仍然創造了超過 70 億美元的淨收入和 36 億美元的自由現金流。2024 年末，特斯拉的現金和投資總額達到了 366 億美元。沒有人能否認該公司迄今為止的成功。</p>
<p>特斯拉不僅僅是一家電動車公司。其能源存儲業務在去年創下了最高的毛利潤。它正在大力投資人工智能（AI）基礎設施。公司計劃利用這些投資開發自動駕駛電動車出租車業務以及人形機器人願景。特斯拉去年的投資使得可用於 AI 訓練的計算能力增加了五倍。</p>
<h2>比單純的商業更復雜</h2>
<p>然而，投資特斯拉變得更加複雜。馬斯克可能因其進入政治而疏遠了一部分特斯拉的客户基礎和潛在市場。關税的實施和潛在的貿易戰也可能對業務產生負面影響。投資者必須考慮所有風險，包括中國可能對特斯拉和馬斯克進行報復的潛在風險。特斯拉在上海的工廠是其最大的工廠，而中國市場對該業務至關重要。</p>
<p>説到風險，股票的估值仍然是一個重大風險。即使在股價從 12 月約 480 美元的高點暴跌近 50% 之後，最近的前瞻市盈率（P/E）仍然高達 90。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDk1MTUvcml2aWFuLXIyLXN1di5wbmcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDk1MTUvcml2aWFuLXIyLXN1di5wbmcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Rivian Automotive。</p>
<h2>Rivian 有其宏偉的願景</h2>
<p>Rivian 尚未盈利。這是投資者面臨的最大風險之一。將車輛製造規模提升到能夠產生利潤的水平需要大量資本。而 Rivian 在過去幾年中一直在虧損。</p>
<p>儘管它在第四季度實現了首個毛利潤，但仍預計 2025 年將處於虧損狀態。管理層的指導預計全年調整後的 EBITDA 虧損將在 17 億至 19 億美元之間。相比之下，去年交付了約 51,500 輛汽車，虧損約 27 億美元。</p>
<p>但 Rivian 也有利好的消息。該公司在 2024 年末擁有 77 億美元的現金及現金等價物。今年晚些時候，它將開始生產下一代 R2 SUV，首次擴展其車型陣容。Rivian 計劃推出一個名為 R3 的更小版本。兩者預計將更具價格競爭力，可能吸引更廣泛的消費者市場。</p>
<h2>兩隻股票都有潛力</h2>
<p>特斯拉和 Rivian 各自對投資者有獨特的吸引力和風險。特斯拉擁有一個穩定且盈利的業務。但在其股票估值下，它需要其自動駕駛技術獲得監管機構和客户的認可。其能源存儲業務也需要繼續增長——而這一切都發生在埃隆·馬斯克日益成為一個兩極分化的人物之際。</p>
<p>Rivian 面臨的風險更大。它已經建立了一個成功的品牌，但銷售量遠未達到所需的水平。R2 及後續的 R3 必須引導公司走向盈利。</p>
<p>我同時持有這兩隻股票，因為我認為每家公司都有實現顯著長期成功的潛力。然而，我的持股比例與每個業務面臨的風險相稱。希望在這兩隻電動車股票之間做出選擇的投資者需要權衡這些風險與每個公司的潛在長期成功。</p>

特斯拉

RIVN

<p>Rivian Automotive (RIVN) 的股票今年迄今已下跌 16%，而特斯拉 (TSLA) 則下降了 42%。Rivian 仍處於早期階段，費用高且沒有利潤，但擁有 77 億美元的現金，並計劃推出新車型。儘管特斯拉盈利且現金流強勁，但面臨市場競爭和政治問題的風險。這兩家公司都提供獨特的投資機會，特斯拉的業務已成熟，而 Rivian 則具有增長潛力。投資者的決策取決於平衡每家電動車製造商的風險和長期前景</p>

<p>It hasn't been a great start to the year for <strong>Rivian Automotive</strong>(RIVN 1.29%) stock. Shares are down 16% year to date as investors' faith in the electric vehicle (EV) growth story dwindles. The company itself is still in its early stages when expenses remain high and earning a profit is still relatively far out.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>對於 <strong>Rivian Automotive</strong>(RIVN 1.29%) 的股票來説，今年的開局並不理想。由於投資者對電動車（EV）增長故事的信心減弱，股價年初至今下跌了 16%。該公司仍處於早期階段，費用高昂，盈利仍然相對遙遠。</p>
</div><p>One would think some of those investors would instead seek a profitable EV maker like <strong>Tesla</strong>(TSLA 4.69%). Yet Tesla stock has fallen twice as far since the start of the year. But Tesla stock has a much bigger story. And its 42% drop so far in 2025 came after a monumental run higher after the U.S. election in November.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>人們可能會認為一些投資者會選擇像 <strong>Tesla</strong>(TSLA 4.69%) 這樣的盈利電動車製造商。然而，自年初以來，特斯拉的股價下跌幅度是前者的兩倍。但特斯拉的故事更為龐大。到目前為止，其股價在 2025 年下跌了 42%，這發生在去年 11 月美國選舉後的一次巨大的上漲之後。</p>
</div><p>Investors who want exposure to a still-growing EV sector now have an interesting decision to ponder. Would it make sense to own Rivian with its strong and growing brand and high long-term potential? Or should one buy the dip in Tesla stock based on its existing profitability and prospects beyond its current EV lineup.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>希望在仍在增長的電動車行業中獲得投資機會的投資者，現在面臨一個有趣的選擇。擁有 Rivian 這樣強大且不斷增長的品牌以及高長期潛力是否有意義？還是應該基於特斯拉現有的盈利能力和超越當前電動車系列的前景，趁機買入特斯拉的股票？</p>
</div><h2>Electric vehicles, artificial intelligence, and much more</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>電動車、人工智能及更多</h2>
</div><p>Tesla investors have always looked beyond the existing electric car sales. Even as the EV maker had just begun ramping up to mass-volume vehicle sales, CEO Elon Musk boldly predicted the company would be producing 20 million vehicles annually by 2030. Musk has since backed off from that claim as Tesla's sales growth has slowed amid rising competition and slower-than-expected market penetration for EVs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特斯拉的投資者一直在關注現有電動車銷售之外的領域。即使在這家電動車製造商剛開始大規模銷售時，首席執行官埃隆·馬斯克也大膽預測到 2030 年公司將每年生產 2000 萬輛汽車。隨着競爭加劇和電動車市場滲透速度低於預期，馬斯克已經對這一説法有所收斂。</p>
</div><p>But investors were valuing Tesla shares at lofty levels that seemed to assume Musk's EV sales predictions would come to fruition. Now the company has a steady and profitable EV business. Even in what was considered a disappointing year, Tesla generated more than $7 billion in net income and $3.6 billion in free cash flow. It ended 2024 with $36.6 billion in cash and investments. No one can argue that the company hasn't been successful thus far.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但投資者對特斯拉股票的估值曾高得離譜，似乎假設馬斯克的電動車銷售預測會實現。現在，該公司擁有一個穩定且盈利的電動車業務。即使在被認為是失望的一年，特斯拉仍然創造了超過 70 億美元的淨收入和 36 億美元的自由現金流。2024 年末，特斯拉的現金和投資總額達到了 366 億美元。沒有人能否認該公司迄今為止的成功。</p>
</div><p>Tesla is more than an electric car company, too. Its energy storage business had a record year last year with its highest-ever gross profit. It is heavily investing in artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure. The company plans to use that to develop a self-driving EV taxi business and for its humanoid robotics aspirations. Tesla's investments last year quintupled the compute power available for AI training.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特斯拉不僅僅是一家電動車公司。其能源存儲業務在去年創下了最高的毛利潤。它正在大力投資人工智能（AI）基礎設施。公司計劃利用這些投資開發自動駕駛電動車出租車業務以及人形機器人願景。特斯拉去年的投資使得可用於 AI 訓練的計算能力增加了五倍。</p>
</div><h2>More complex than just the business</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>比單純的商業更復雜</h2>
</div><p>Investing in Tesla has gotten more complicated, though. Musk has potentially alienated some of Tesla's customer base and potential market with his entry into politics. The implementation of tariffs and a potential trade war also could negatively impact the business. Investors have to consider all risks, including the potential for China to retaliate against Tesla and Musk. Tesla's Shanghai plant is its biggest and the Chinese market is important to the business.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，投資特斯拉變得更加複雜。馬斯克可能因其進入政治而疏遠了一部分特斯拉的客户基礎和潛在市場。關税的實施和潛在的貿易戰也可能對業務產生負面影響。投資者必須考慮所有風險，包括中國可能對特斯拉和馬斯克進行報復的潛在風險。特斯拉在上海的工廠是其最大的工廠，而中國市場對該業務至關重要。</p>
</div><p>Speaking of risks, the stock's valuation remains a big one. The recent forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is 90 even after the stock plunged nearly 50% from a December high of about $480 per share.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>説到風險，股票的估值仍然是一個重大風險。即使在股價從 12 月約 480 美元的高點暴跌近 50% 之後，最近的前瞻市盈率（P/E）仍然高達 90。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MDk1MTUvcml2aWFuLXIyLXN1di5wbmcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F809515%2Frivian-r2-suv.png&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Rivian Automotive.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Rivian Automotive。</p>
</div><h2>Rivian has its own lofty aspirations</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Rivian 有其宏偉的願景</h2>
</div><p>Rivian doesn't make money yet. That's one of the biggest risks for investors. Ramping up vehicle manufacturing to a scale that can generate profits takes a lot of capital. And Rivian has been bleeding money for several years now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Rivian 尚未盈利。這是投資者面臨的最大風險之一。將車輛製造規模提升到能夠產生利潤的水平需要大量資本。而 Rivian 在過去幾年中一直在虧損。</p>
</div><p>While it did achieve its first gross profit in the fourth quarter, it still expects 2025 to be in the red. Management's guidance calls for an adjusted EBITDA loss of between $1.7 billion and $1.9 billion for the full year. That compares to about $2.7 billion last year after delivering about 51,500 vehicles.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管它在第四季度實現了首個毛利潤，但仍預計 2025 年將處於虧損狀態。管理層的指導預計全年調整後的 EBITDA 虧損將在 17 億至 19 億美元之間。相比之下，去年交付了約 51,500 輛汽車，虧損約 27 億美元。</p>
</div><p>But there's favorable news for Rivian as well. the company ended 2024 with $7.7 billion in cash and equivalents. It will begin to produce its next-generation R2 SUV later this year to expand its vehicle lineup for the first time. Rivian plans a smaller version called the R3 to follow. Both are expected to be more affordable and could be attractive to a more mass market of consumers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但 Rivian 也有利好的消息。該公司在 2024 年末擁有 77 億美元的現金及現金等價物。今年晚些時候，它將開始生產下一代 R2 SUV，首次擴展其車型陣容。Rivian 計劃推出一個名為 R3 的更小版本。兩者預計將更具價格競爭力，可能吸引更廣泛的消費者市場。</p>
</div><h2>Both stocks have potential</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>兩隻股票都有潛力</h2>
</div><p>Tesla and Rivian each have unique attractions and risks for investors. Tesla has a steady and profitable business. But at its stock valuation, it needs its self-driving technology to be accepted by regulators and customers. Its energy storage business also needs to continue to grow -- and all while Elon Musk is increasingly becoming a polarizing figure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特斯拉和 Rivian 各自對投資者有獨特的吸引力和風險。特斯拉擁有一個穩定且盈利的業務。但在其股票估值下，它需要其自動駕駛技術獲得監管機構和客户的認可。其能源存儲業務也需要繼續增長——而這一切都發生在埃隆·馬斯克日益成為一個兩極分化的人物之際。</p>
</div><p>There's even more risk with Rivian. It has developed a successful brand, but not at a volume of sales close to what it needs to attain. The R2 and subsequent R3 must steer the company to profitability.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Rivian 面臨的風險更大。它已經建立了一個成功的品牌，但銷售量遠未達到所需的水平。R2 及後續的 R3 必須引導公司走向盈利。</p>
</div><p>I own both stocks, because I think each company has the potential for significant long-term success. However, I own them at an allocation level that is commensurate to the risk each business is exposed to. Investors wanting to decide between these two EV stocks need to balance those risks against the potential long-term success of each.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我同時持有這兩隻股票，因為我認為每家公司都有實現顯著長期成功的潛力。然而，我的持股比例與每個業務面臨的風險相稱。希望在這兩隻電動車股票之間做出選擇的投資者需要權衡這些風險與每個公司的潛在長期成功。</p>
</div>

Better EV Stock: Rivian vs. Tesla

- Rivian 股票年初下跌 16%，投資者對電動車增長信心減弱。  
- 特斯拉股票在 2025 年已下跌 42%，但仍有穩定盈利。  
- 投資者需權衡 Rivian 和特斯拉的風險與長期潛力。

哪隻電動汽車股票更好：Rivian 與特斯拉