<p>在一月份，我警告投資者在購買 <strong>英偉達</strong>(NVDA 1.74%) 股票時要謹慎。該科技股的估值幾乎沒有出錯的空間。儘管業務似乎運轉良好，我得出結論認為英偉達的股票可能不是一個好的投資，因為其高昂的估值已經預期了未來幾年的強勁增長。</p>
<p>但現在情況如何？截至本文撰寫時，自那篇文章發佈以來，股價已下跌約 13%。股票的顯著下跌是否使其變得有吸引力？不幸的是，英偉達股票的估值似乎仍然過高。</p>
<h2>英偉達的成功之處</h2>
<p>英偉達持續取得成功的一點是增長。在公司最近的一個季度，即 2025 財年的第四季度，銷售和利潤飆升。英偉達的收入大幅增長，主要得益於對其數據中心圖形處理單元（GPU）日益增長的需求，這些產品在人工智能（AI）加速器市場中佔據主導地位。其財務第四季度的收入同比激增 78%，達到 351 億美元，而英偉達的總財年收入則以令人印象深刻的 114% 增長，達到了 1305 億美元。</p>
<p>如此強勁的增長推動了盈利。英偉達在其財務第四季度的淨收入同比增長 82%，達到 220.9 億美元，或每股 0.89 美元。</p>
<h2>兩大風險</h2>
<p>截至本文撰寫時，股票的市盈率約為 40 倍，與公司最近的快速增長相比，似乎並不算昂貴。但仔細觀察其內部情況，顯示出兩個大風險，顯然值得更低的估值。</p>
<p>首先，隨着英偉達的增長，其擴張速度似乎正在放緩。例如，該公司的第四季度同比收入增長率為 78%，低於三個月前的 94% 增長和一年前的 265%。</p>
<p>另一個問題是毛利率。隨着競爭加劇以及人工智能芯片的供應逐漸接近需求，成本可能會上升，因為英偉達在努力保持其技術領導地位。此外，隨着市場競爭的加劇，價格可能會下降。為此，英偉達最近報告的季度毛利率從一年前的 76% 收縮至 73%。</p>
<p>如果英偉達繼續面臨收入放緩和毛利率收窄的雙重壓力，公司每股收益的增長率可能會迅速下降。</p>
<h2>保持觀望</h2>
<p>以 40 倍的市盈率，英偉達的估值假設不僅在未來幾年內，而且在未來十年內都能實現卓越的執行力——這可能會發生，但並不保證。由於像英偉達這樣的科技公司本質上難以預測，因此等待股價下跌到足以更有意義地反映這些風險的水平是明智的。英偉達的增長雖然仍然令人印象深刻，但正在放緩。隨着人工智能芯片競爭的加劇，公司定價能力可能會減弱，進一步對其毛利率施加壓力。如果收入增長繼續放緩，毛利率進一步收縮，那麼今天的市盈率可能會顯得更加緊張。</p>
<p>當然，還值得考慮的是，英偉達當前的成功在多大程度上與異常火熱的人工智能市場相關。目前，人工智能芯片的需求大大超過供應，使得英偉達能夠佔據主導地位。但這種動態不會永遠持續。其他半導體巨頭正在迎頭趕上（儘管他們仍有很長的路要走），隨着他們的追趕，定價和盈利能力的格局可能會發生劇烈變化。</p>
<p>這並不是説英偉達不是一家傑出的公司。它確實是一家傑出的公司。問題在於，今天的價格是否是一個好的_投資_。不幸的是，我並不相信在這個價格下風險與回報的權衡是有吸引力的。對於尋求人工智能投資的投資者來説，等待一個更好的入場點——或者尋找更合理估值的替代方案——可能是更明智的選擇。</p>

英偉達

<p>英偉達的股票自一月份以來下跌了 13%，引發了對其估值的質疑。儘管增長令人印象深刻，第四季度收入同比增長 78%，達到 351 億美元，但風險依然存在。公司的擴張速度正在放緩，毛利率從 76% 收縮至 73%。以 40 倍的市盈率計算，該股票的估值假設其將繼續強勁表現，但這一點並不確定。建議投資者等待更好的入場時機或考慮替代方案，因為當前的風險與收益的權衡似乎不具吸引力</p>

<p>In January, I warned investors to tread carefully when it came to <strong>Nvidia</strong>(NVDA 1.74%) shares. The tech stock's valuation left almost no room for error. Even though the business is seeming to fire on all cylinders, I concluded that Nvidia shares might not be a great investment since its premium valuation is already pricing in strong growth for years to come.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在一月份，我警告投資者在購買 <strong>英偉達</strong>(NVDA 1.74%) 股票時要謹慎。該科技股的估值幾乎沒有出錯的空間。儘管業務似乎運轉良好，我得出結論認為英偉達的股票可能不是一個好的投資，因為其高昂的估值已經預期了未來幾年的強勁增長。</p>
</div><p>But what about now? As of this writing, shares have fallen about 13% since that article was published. Has the stock's meaningful haircut made shares attractive? Unfortunately, Nvidia stock's valuation arguably still seems too rich.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但現在情況如何？截至本文撰寫時，自那篇文章發佈以來，股價已下跌約 13%。股票的顯著下跌是否使其變得有吸引力？不幸的是，英偉達股票的估值似乎仍然過高。</p>
</div><h2>What Nvidia is doing right</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>英偉達的成功之處</h2>
</div><p>One thing Nvidia continues to get right is growth. Sales and profits soared in the company's most recent quarter, its fourth quarter of fiscal 2025. Revenue is booming for Nvidia, largely fueled by the increasing demand for its data center graphics processing units (GPUs), which dominate the AI (artificial intelligence) accelerator market. Its fiscal fourth-quarter revenue surged 78% year over year to reach $35.1 billion, while Nvidia's total fiscal-year revenue increased by an impressive 114%, hitting $130.5 billion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英偉達持續取得成功的一點是增長。在公司最近的一個季度，即 2025 財年的第四季度，銷售和利潤飆升。英偉達的收入大幅增長，主要得益於對其數據中心圖形處理單元（GPU）日益增長的需求，這些產品在人工智能（AI）加速器市場中佔據主導地位。其財務第四季度的收入同比激增 78%，達到 351 億美元，而英偉達的總財年收入則以令人印象深刻的 114% 增長，達到了 1305 億美元。</p>
</div><p>Such robust growth has bolstered earnings. Nvidia saw its net income jump 82% year over year for its fiscal fourth quarter to $22.09 billion, or $0.89.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如此強勁的增長推動了盈利。英偉達在其財務第四季度的淨收入同比增長 82%，達到 220.9 億美元，或每股 0.89 美元。</p>
</div><h2>Two big risks</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>兩大風險</h2>
</div><p>With the stock priced at about 40 times earnings as of this writing, shares may not seem that expensive when viewed next to the company's recent torrid growth. But a closer look under the hood shows two big risks that arguably merit a lower valuation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至本文撰寫時，股票的市盈率約為 40 倍，與公司最近的快速增長相比，似乎並不算昂貴。但仔細觀察其內部情況，顯示出兩個大風險，顯然值得更低的估值。</p>
</div><p>First of all, as Nvidia grows, the pace of its expansion appears to be decelerating. The company's fourth-quarter year-over-year revenue growth rate of 78%, for instance, is down from 94% growth in the quarter ended three months earlier and 265% in the year-ago period.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>首先，隨着英偉達的增長，其擴張速度似乎正在放緩。例如，該公司的第四季度同比收入增長率為 78%，低於三個月前的 94% 增長和一年前的 265%。</p>
</div><p>Another issue is gross profit margin. As competition intensifies and as supply of AI chips closes in on demand, costs may rise as Nvidia fights to maintain its technical leadership. Furthermore, prices could come down as price becomes more important in an increasingly competitive marketplace. To this end, Nvidia's gross profit margin in its most recently reported quarter contracted from 76% in the year-ago period to 73%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另一個問題是毛利率。隨着競爭加劇以及人工智能芯片的供應逐漸接近需求，成本可能會上升，因為英偉達在努力保持其技術領導地位。此外，隨着市場競爭的加劇，價格可能會下降。為此，英偉達最近報告的季度毛利率從一年前的 76% 收縮至 73%。</p>
</div><p>If Nvidia continues to face slowing revenue and narrowing margins simultaneously, the company's earnings-per-share growth rates could come down very fast.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果英偉達繼續面臨收入放緩和毛利率收窄的雙重壓力，公司每股收益的增長率可能會迅速下降。</p>
</div><h2>Stay on the sidelines</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>保持觀望</h2>
</div><p>At 40 times earnings, Nvidia's valuation assumes spectacular execution not just for the next few years but for the next decade -- something that could happen but is not guaranteed. Since technology companies like Nvidia are inherently difficult to predict, it makes sense to wait to see if shares drop to a price low enough to price in some of these risks more meaningfully. Nvidia's growth, while still impressive, is slowing. And with rising competition in AI chips, the company's pricing power could weaken, putting additional pressure on its margins. If revenue growth keeps decelerating and margins contract further, today's multiple could start to look even more stretched.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>以 40 倍的市盈率，英偉達的估值假設不僅在未來幾年內，而且在未來十年內都能實現卓越的執行力——這可能會發生，但並不保證。由於像英偉達這樣的科技公司本質上難以預測，因此等待股價下跌到足以更有意義地反映這些風險的水平是明智的。英偉達的增長雖然仍然令人印象深刻，但正在放緩。隨着人工智能芯片競爭的加劇，公司定價能力可能會減弱，進一步對其毛利率施加壓力。如果收入增長繼續放緩，毛利率進一步收縮，那麼今天的市盈率可能會顯得更加緊張。</p>
</div><p>Of course, it's also worth considering how much of Nvidia's current success is tied to an unusually hot AI market. Right now, demand for AI chips is largely outpacing supply, allowing Nvidia to dominate. But that dynamic won't last forever. Other semiconductor giants are catching up (although they still have a long way to go), and as they do, the pricing and profitability landscape could shift dramatically.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>當然，還值得考慮的是，英偉達當前的成功在多大程度上與異常火熱的人工智能市場相關。目前，人工智能芯片的需求大大超過供應，使得英偉達能夠佔據主導地位。但這種動態不會永遠持續。其他半導體巨頭正在迎頭趕上（儘管他們仍有很長的路要走），隨着他們的追趕，定價和盈利能力的格局可能會發生劇烈變化。</p>
</div><p>None of this is to say Nvidia isn't an outstanding company. It is. The question is whether it's a good <em>investment</em> at today's price. Unfortunately, I'm not convinced the risk-reward trade-off is attractive at this price. For investors looking for AI exposure, waiting for a better entry point -- or seeking alternatives at more reasonable valuation -- could be the smarter move.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這並不是説英偉達不是一家傑出的公司。它確實是一家傑出的公司。問題在於，今天的價格是否是一個好的_投資_。不幸的是，我並不相信在這個價格下風險與回報的權衡是有吸引力的。對於尋求人工智能投資的投資者來説，等待一個更好的入場點——或者尋找更合理估值的替代方案——可能是更明智的選擇。</p>
</div>

Nvidia Stock Has Taken a Beating. Buy the Dip?

- Nvidia 第四季度營收同比增長 78%，達到 351 億美元，淨利潤增長 82% 至 220.9 億美元。  
- 但公司面臨增長放緩和毛利率收窄的風險，估值仍顯高。  
- 投資者應考慮等待更合適的入場時機。  

英偉達股票遭受重創，現在是逢低買入的好時機嗎？