<p>儘管股市最近出現拋售，但 <strong>伯克希爾哈撒韋</strong>(BRK.B -1.32%)(BRK.A -1.28%) 的股票卻逆勢上漲。截至目前，其股價年初至今已上漲超過 15%，並且該股票的交易價格接近歷史最高點。</p>
<p>讓我們來看看為什麼伯克希爾的表現優於市場，以及當前價格是否適合買入該股票。</p>
<h2>充足的資金推動收益</h2>
<p>伯克希爾在市場下跌面前表現強勁的一個重要原因是其建立的鉅額現金頭寸。該公司基本上充當其首席執行官和著名投資者沃倫·巴菲特的投資工具。伯克希爾是一家擁有多個行業業務的綜合企業，但巴菲特特別偏愛保險公司，因為他可以通過保險公司的浮存金獲得資金。</p>
<p>浮存金是保險公司從保單持有者那裏收取並在索賠支付之前持有的資金。大多數保險公司會將這筆現金投資於債券等固定收益工具以產生收入。然而，巴菲特拋棄了這種典型的保險公司策略，轉而投資於高質量的股票。</p>
<p>這在行業中是一種獨特的策略，使伯克希爾成為全球市值最大的公司之一。然而，在過去幾個季度中，巴菲特對出售股票和積累現金的興趣遠遠超過了投資。事實上，去年他僅購買了約 90 億美元的股票，而出售超過 1430 億美元。這包括顯著減少他在 <strong>蘋果</strong> 和 <strong>美國銀行</strong> 等主要持股的頭寸。</p>
<p>結合公司在年度內產生的現金流，這使得伯克希爾在年末的資產負債表上擁有高達 3340 億美元的現金。在投資行業中，這被稱為乾粉，基本上是可以用於投資的閒置資金。伯克希爾目前擁有充足的乾粉，並且有史以來最偉大的價值投資者之一在掌舵，可以在他認為時機合適時購買股票。</p>
<p>然而，簡單的市場修正可能不足以讓巴菲特重新開始積極買入股票。他在 2024 年上半年開始減少股票投資，而 <strong>標準普爾 500 指數</strong> 等主要市場指數仍高於 2024 年 6 月底的水平。然而，如果任何個別股票變得有吸引力，巴菲特有很多現金可以投入。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTIwMjIvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTM3MzEwOTYzOC5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTIwMjIvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTM3MzEwOTYzOC5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>伯克希爾股票值得買入嗎？</h2>
<p>儘管當前的市場環境吸引投資者關注伯克希爾的乾粉，但這並不一定意味着該股票在當前價格下是一個好的買入選擇。除了在過去一年中減少股票頭寸外，巴菲特還決定停止回購伯克希爾股票。</p>
<p>伯克希爾在過去六年中每個季度都持續回購其股票，直到去年第三季度停止。今年沒有跡象表明巴菲特回購了任何股票，這將是自 2018 年以來他最長的一段時間沒有回購伯克希爾股票。</p>
<p>過去，伯克希爾會根據公司的市淨率 (P/B) 來決定是否回購股票。這是一個常用於評估保險公司的指標，代表其價格與其基礎資產價值的比較。</p>
<p>巴菲特曾使用 1.1 倍的市淨率作為回購伯克希爾股票的閾值，後來將其提高到 1.2 倍。他最終停止使用市淨率限制來決定回購，現在只會在他認為伯克希爾股票交易低於其內在價值時回購股票。</p>
<p>目前，伯克希爾股票的市淨率超過 1.7 倍，遠高於巴菲特曾認為的良好價值水平。其市盈率 (P/E) 在近年來也飆升至高位。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/e4d292ac53b462948ff7557a9b5f547f.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/e4d292ac53b462948ff7557a9b5f547f.png"/></p>
<p>BRK.B 市淨率數據來源於 YCharts。</p>
<p>伯克希爾被視為一個安全的避風港，巴菲特手中有充足的現金可以在時機合適時開始購買股票。但投資者為等待他採取行動支付了相當高的溢價，我認為這不會很快發生。</p>
<p>我會將伯克希爾視為持有，而不會在當前價格下考慮作為新資金買入。</p>

伯克希爾哈撒韋-B

伯克希爾哈撒韋-A

<p>伯克希爾哈撒韋的股票年初至今上漲超過 15%，儘管近期市場出現下跌，這主要得益於其 3340 億美元的鉅額現金儲備。首席執行官沃倫·巴菲特已將重點從買入股票轉向賣出，導致股票回購暫停。目前，伯克希爾的交易價格超過其賬面價值的 1.7 倍，被視為避風港，但高估值表明此時可能不是一個好的購買時機。分析師建議持有而不是購買新股</p>

<p>While the stock market has been selling off recently, one stock that has bucked the trend is <strong>Berkshire Hathaway</strong>(BRK.B -1.32%)(BRK.A -1.28%). Its shares are up more than 15% year to date as of this writing, and the stock is trading near an all-time high.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管股市最近出現拋售，但 <strong>伯克希爾哈撒韋</strong>(BRK.B -1.32%)(BRK.A -1.28%) 的股票卻逆勢上漲。截至目前，其股價年初至今已上漲超過 15%，並且該股票的交易價格接近歷史最高點。</p>
</div><p>Let's look at why Berkshire has outperformed the market and whether the stock is a buy at current levels.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>讓我們來看看為什麼伯克希爾的表現優於市場，以及當前價格是否適合買入該股票。</p>
</div><h2>Dry powder fueling gains</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>充足的資金推動收益</h2>
</div><p>One of the big reasons for Berkshire's strong performance in the face of market declines is the huge cash position it has built. The company essentially acts as the investment vehicle for its CEO and famed investor, Warren Buffett. Berkshire is a conglomerate that owns businesses in a variety of sectors, but Buffett is particularly fond of insurance companies, since he gets access to capital through their float.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>伯克希爾在市場下跌面前表現強勁的一個重要原因是其建立的鉅額現金頭寸。該公司基本上充當其首席執行官和著名投資者沃倫·巴菲特的投資工具。伯克希爾是一家擁有多個行業業務的綜合企業，但巴菲特特別偏愛保險公司，因為他可以通過保險公司的浮存金獲得資金。</p>
</div><p>Float is simply the money insurance companies collect from policyholders and hold until a claim is paid out. Most insurance companies take this cash and invest it in fixed-income instruments like bonds to generate income. However, Buffett has eschewed this typical insurance company strategy in favor of investing in high-quality stocks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>浮存金是保險公司從保單持有者那裏收取並在索賠支付之前持有的資金。大多數保險公司會將這筆現金投資於債券等固定收益工具以產生收入。然而，巴菲特拋棄了這種典型的保險公司策略，轉而投資於高質量的股票。</p>
</div><p>It's a unique strategy in the industry that has vaulted Berkshire to being of the largest companies in the world by market cap. However, over the past several quarters, Buffett has been much more interested in selling stocks and compiling cash than in investing. In fact, last year he only purchased about $9 billion worth of stock while selling more than $143 billion. This included significantly reducing positions in his top holdings, such as <strong>Apple</strong> and <strong>Bank of America</strong>.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這在行業中是一種獨特的策略，使伯克希爾成為全球市值最大的公司之一。然而，在過去幾個季度中，巴菲特對出售股票和積累現金的興趣遠遠超過了投資。事實上，去年他僅購買了約 90 億美元的股票，而出售超過 1430 億美元。這包括顯著減少他在 <strong>蘋果</strong> 和 <strong>美國銀行</strong> 等主要持股的頭寸。</p>
</div><p>Combined with the cash flow the company generated for the year, this left Berkshire with a whopping $334 billion in cash on its balance sheet at year-end. In the investing industry, this is known as dry powder, which is essentially money on the sidelines that can be used to make investments. Berkshire has plenty of dry powder at the moment and one of the greatest value investors of all time at the helm to buy stocks when he feels the timing is right.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>結合公司在年度內產生的現金流，這使得伯克希爾在年末的資產負債表上擁有高達 3340 億美元的現金。在投資行業中，這被稱為乾粉，基本上是可以用於投資的閒置資金。伯克希爾目前擁有充足的乾粉，並且有史以來最偉大的價值投資者之一在掌舵，可以在他認為時機合適時購買股票。</p>
</div><p>Now a simple market correction may not be enough to get Buffett back to aggressively buying stocks. He started to pull back from stocks in the first half of 2024 and the major market indexes like the <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong> are still higher than they were at the end of June 2024. However, if any individual stocks become attractive, Buffett has a lot of cash to deploy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，簡單的市場修正可能不足以讓巴菲特重新開始積極買入股票。他在 2024 年上半年開始減少股票投資，而 <strong>標準普爾 500 指數</strong> 等主要市場指數仍高於 2024 年 6 月底的水平。然而，如果任何個別股票變得有吸引力，巴菲特有很多現金可以投入。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTIwMjIvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTM3MzEwOTYzOC5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F812022%2Fgettyimages-1373109638.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖片來源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>Is Berkshire stock a buy?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>伯克希爾股票值得買入嗎？</h2>
</div><p>Although this current market environment attracts investors to Berkshire's dry powder, that doesn't necessarily make the stock a good buy at current levels. In addition to selling down stock positions over the past year, Buffett also decided to stop buying back Berkshire stock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管當前的市場環境吸引投資者關注伯克希爾的乾粉，但這並不一定意味着該股票在當前價格下是一個好的買入選擇。除了在過去一年中減少股票頭寸外，巴菲特還決定停止回購伯克希爾股票。</p>
</div><p>Berkshire had consistently repurchased shares of its stock each quarter for the past six years until the company stopped in the third quarter of last year. There is no indication that Buffett has bought back any stock this year, which would make it the longest stretch he has gone without repurchasing Berkshire stock since at least 2018.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>伯克希爾在過去六年中每個季度都持續回購其股票，直到去年第三季度停止。今年沒有跡象表明巴菲特回購了任何股票，這將是自 2018 年以來他最長的一段時間沒有回購伯克希爾股票。</p>
</div><p>In the past, Berkshire used to decide whether to buy back shares based on the company's price-to-book (P/B) value. This is a metric commonly used to value insurance companies and represents its price compared to the value of its underlying assets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>過去，伯克希爾會根據公司的市淨率 (P/B) 來決定是否回購股票。這是一個常用於評估保險公司的指標，代表其價格與其基礎資產價值的比較。</p>
</div><p>Buffett used to use a 1.1 times P/B multiple as a threshold to determine whether or not to buy back Berkshire stock, and he later upped it to a 1.2 times multiple. He eventually stopped using a P/B limit to determine buybacks and now will just buy back stock when he feels Berkshire stock is trading below its intrinsic value.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>巴菲特曾使用 1.1 倍的市淨率作為回購伯克希爾股票的閾值，後來將其提高到 1.2 倍。他最終停止使用市淨率限制來決定回購，現在只會在他認為伯克希爾股票交易低於其內在價值時回購股票。</p>
</div><p>Trading at over 1.7 times P/B, Berkshire stock is currently well above levels Buffett once considered a good value. Its price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio has also shot up to highs in recent years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前，伯克希爾股票的市淨率超過 1.7 倍，遠高於巴菲特曾認為的良好價值水平。其市盈率 (P/E) 在近年來也飆升至高位。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/e4d292ac53b462948ff7557a9b5f547f.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/e4d292ac53b462948ff7557a9b5f547f.png"/></p>
<p>BRK.B Price to Book Value data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>BRK.B 市淨率數據來源於 YCharts。</p>
</div><p>Berkshire is being looked at as safe haven where Buffett has plenty of cash at his disposal to start buying stocks when the time is right. But investors are paying a pretty steep premium to wait for him to make his move, and I don't think this will happen soon.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>伯克希爾被視為一個安全的避風港，巴菲特手中有充足的現金可以在時機合適時開始購買股票。但投資者為等待他採取行動支付了相當高的溢價，我認為這不會很快發生。</p>
</div><p>I'd view Berkshire more as a hold and wouldn't be looking to be a new-money buyer at current levels.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我會將伯克希爾視為持有，而不會在當前價格下考慮作為新資金買入。</p>
</div>

Should You Buy Berkshire Hathaway While It's Below $550?

- 伯克希爾哈撒韋股票在市場下跌中逆勢上漲，年初至今漲幅超過 15%。
- 公司現金儲備達到 3340 億美元，提供了投資的 “乾粉”。
- 當前股價高於巴菲特認為的合理價值，建議持有而非新買入。

伯克希爾哈撒韋的股價低於 550 美元時，你應該購買嗎？