<p>股市通常會獎勵那些被認為具有強大未來增長潛力的公司以溢價估值。在 <strong>蘋果</strong>（AAPL 1.95%）的案例中，投資者將其股價推高至大約 35 倍的市盈率——這一水平暗示了市場對其未來增長的巨大期望。</p><p>但仔細觀察蘋果最近的表現，會引發關於公司增長軌跡是否能達到這一高估值的質疑。</p><h2>iPhone 目前是個拖累</h2><p>蘋果最近的財務結果並沒有展現出與其高估值相符的增長股票的形象。在 2025 財年第一季度，即假日購物季，蘋果報告的收入為 1243 億美元，同比增長僅為 4%。對投資者來説，更令人擔憂的是 iPhone 的表現——作為蘋果的旗艦產品，iPhone 仍佔總收入的 56% 以上。在此期間，iPhone 的銷售實際上同比下降了 8%。</p><p>另一個令人擔憂的問題是蘋果在大中華區的銷售。在 2025 財年第一季度，銷售同比下降了 11%。這一關鍵市場佔銷售的 15%，面臨的挑戰對業績造成了壓力。</p><p>當然，投資者也有一些值得興奮的事情。蘋果在其他一些產品領域實現了令人矚目的增長。例如，Mac 和 iPad 的銷售分別同比增長了 16% 和 15%。但這些部門在蘋果整體業務中所佔的比例要小得多。然而，服務收入在蘋果的業務中佔據了更重要的部分——並且正在快速增長。包括訂閲和 App Store 銷售在內，服務部門的收入增長了 14%，達到了 263 億美元。這是蘋果僅次於 iPhone 的第二大部門，佔總收入的 21% 以上。</p><h2>溢價估值的背景</h2><p>在這種背景下，很難為股票當前的估值辯護。誠然，蘋果當前的市盈率從年初的約 40 下降到了現在。但這仍然遠高於公司在過去十年中通常交易的估值水平。在過去 10 年中，蘋果的股票平均市盈率在 20 出頭。</p><p>這一高估值通常意味着投資者預期未來會加速增長。然而，蘋果自己的指引則指向持續温和的增長，管理層在公司最近的財報電話會議中預測，未來一個季度的收入增長將為 “低到中個位數”。這種估值與預期增長之間的脱節引發了對蘋果股價是否已經超前於其基本業務表現的擔憂。</p><h2>蘋果的 AI 變數</h2><p>一個可能為蘋果的溢價估值辯護的因素是成功轉向人工智能作為增長驅動力。該公司一直在推出其 Apple Intelligence 功能，希望能推動 iPhone 的升級並增強其生態系統優勢。</p><p>但這一理論是否能夠實現並沒有保證——而且事情似乎並不順利。</p><p>蘋果對其 AI 推出的謹慎態度可能導致最新 iPhone 型號的需求低於預期。一些功能最初僅在特定市場和語言中可用，其他關鍵功能據報道也被推遲。</p><p>如果 AI 未能以投資者希望的方式加速蘋果的收入，那麼 iPhone 製造商的服務業務的持續成功將變得更加重要。但這對一個僅佔收入約五分之一的部門來説壓力很大。能夠重新點燃 iPhone 升級趨勢的 AI 功能將是實現更快增長的最快途徑。</p><h2>風險與回報的權衡並不樂觀</h2><p>儘管蘋果在財務上依然強勁，利潤率令人印象深刻，客户基礎忠誠，但基於當前的增長趨勢，很難為如此顯著的溢價辯護。</p><p>考慮在當前水平投資蘋果股票的投資者應仔細權衡公司在服務部門的生態系統優勢與其核心業務面臨的挑戰。儘管蘋果過去常常讓懷疑者感到驚訝，但增長放緩與溢價估值的結合在當前價格下形成了一個具有挑戰性的風險與回報權衡。</p>

蘋果

<p>蘋果的股票正面臨審查，因為其 35 倍的高估值引發了對未來增長潛力的質疑。最近的財務結果顯示，年同比收入增長僅為 4%，而 iPhone 銷量下降了 8%，在大中華區面臨挑戰。儘管服務收入增長了 14%，但僅佔總收入的 21%。蘋果的指引暗示未來增長温和，而公司謹慎的人工智能推廣可能會影響未來需求。投資者必須權衡強勁的服務部門與核心業務面臨的挑戰，使得當前的風險回報比難以合理化</p>

<p>The stock market often rewards companies it believes have strong future growth potential with premium valuations. In the case of <strong>Apple</strong>(AAPL 1.95%), investors have bid up shares to roughly 35 times earnings -- a level that implies big growth expectations from the Street.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>股市通常會獎勵那些被認為具有強大未來增長潛力的公司以溢價估值。在 <strong>蘋果</strong>（AAPL 1.95%）的案例中，投資者將其股價推高至大約 35 倍的市盈率——這一水平暗示了市場對其未來增長的巨大期望。</p>
</div><p>But a closer look at Apple's recent performance raises questions about whether the company's growth trajectory can live up to this lofty valuation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但仔細觀察蘋果最近的表現，會引發關於公司增長軌跡是否能達到這一高估值的質疑。</p>
</div><h2>iPhone is a drag... for now</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>iPhone 目前是個拖累</h2>
</div><p>Apple's recent financial results don't paint the picture of the growth stock you'd expect given its high valuation. In the company's fiscal first quarter of 2025, which covered the holiday shopping season, Apple reported revenue of $124.3 billion, representing just 4% year-over-year growth. More concerning for investors should be the performance of the iPhone -- Apple's flagship product that still accounts for over 56% of total revenue. iPhone sales actually declined 8% year over year during the period.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>蘋果最近的財務結果並沒有展現出與其高估值相符的增長股票的形象。在 2025 財年第一季度，即假日購物季，蘋果報告的收入為 1243 億美元，同比增長僅為 4%。對投資者來説，更令人擔憂的是 iPhone 的表現——作為蘋果的旗艦產品，iPhone 仍佔總收入的 56% 以上。在此期間，iPhone 的銷售實際上同比下降了 8%。</p>
</div><p>Another concern has been Apple's sales in Greater China. They fell 11% year over year during fiscal Q1. Accounting for 15% of sales, challenges in this key market are weighing on results.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另一個令人擔憂的問題是蘋果在大中華區的銷售。在 2025 財年第一季度，銷售同比下降了 11%。這一關鍵市場佔銷售的 15%，面臨的挑戰對業績造成了壓力。</p>
</div><p>Of course, there are some things for investors to be excited about. Apple saw impressive growth in some other product segments. Mac and iPad sales, for example, jumped 16% and 15% year over year respectively. But these divisions represent a much smaller portion of Apple's overall business. Services revenue, however, represents a more meaningful portion of Apple's business -- and it <em>is</em> growing fast. Including subscriptions and App Store sales, services segment revenue grew by 14% to $26.3 billion. This is Apple's second-largest segment after iPhone, accounting for more than 21% of revenue.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>當然，投資者也有一些值得興奮的事情。蘋果在其他一些產品領域實現了令人矚目的增長。例如，Mac 和 iPad 的銷售分別同比增長了 16% 和 15%。但這些部門在蘋果整體業務中所佔的比例要小得多。然而，服務收入在蘋果的業務中佔據了更重要的部分——並且正在快速增長。包括訂閲和 App Store 銷售在內，服務部門的收入增長了 14%，達到了 263 億美元。這是蘋果僅次於 iPhone 的第二大部門，佔總收入的 21% 以上。</p>
</div><h2>Premium valuation in context</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>溢價估值的背景</h2>
</div><p>With this backdrop, it's hard to justify the stock's current valuation. Sure, Apple's current price-to-earnings ratio is down from around 40 at the beginning of the year. But it's still much higher than the valuation levels the company typically traded at over the last decade. During the last 10 years, shares averaged a price-to-earnings multiple in the low twenties.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在這種背景下，很難為股票當前的估值辯護。誠然，蘋果當前的市盈率從年初的約 40 下降到了現在。但這仍然遠高於公司在過去十年中通常交易的估值水平。在過去 10 年中，蘋果的股票平均市盈率在 20 出頭。</p>
</div><p>This elevated multiple would typically suggest investors expect accelerated growth ahead. However, Apple's own guidance points to continued modest growth, with the company forecasting &#34;low to mid-single digit&#34; revenue growth for the coming quarter, according to management's guidance in the company's most recent earnings call. This disconnect between valuation and projected growth raises concerns about whether Apple's stock price has gotten ahead of its fundamental business performance.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這一高估值通常意味着投資者預期未來會加速增長。然而，蘋果自己的指引則指向持續温和的增長，管理層在公司最近的財報電話會議中預測，未來一個季度的收入增長將為 “低到中個位數”。這種估值與預期增長之間的脱節引發了對蘋果股價是否已經超前於其基本業務表現的擔憂。</p>
</div><h2>Apple's AI wildcard</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>蘋果的 AI 變數</h2>
</div><p>One factor that could justify Apple's premium valuation would be a successful pivot to artificial intelligence as a growth driver. The company has been rolling out its Apple Intelligence features, which it hopes will drive iPhone upgrades and strengthen its ecosystem advantage.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一個可能為蘋果的溢價估值辯護的因素是成功轉向人工智能作為增長驅動力。該公司一直在推出其 Apple Intelligence 功能，希望能推動 iPhone 的升級並增強其生態系統優勢。</p>
</div><p>But there's no guarantee this thesis will play out -- and things don't seem to be going smoothly.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但這一理論是否能夠實現並沒有保證——而且事情似乎並不順利。</p>
</div><p>Apple's cautious approach to its AI rollout could cause demand for the latest iPhone models to be lower than expected. Some features were initially available only in certain markets and languages, and other key features have reportedly been delayed.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>蘋果對其 AI 推出的謹慎態度可能導致最新 iPhone 型號的需求低於預期。一些功能最初僅在特定市場和語言中可用，其他關鍵功能據報道也被推遲。</p>
</div><p>If AI fails to accelerate Apple's revenue the way investors hope, the continued success of the iPhone maker's services business will become even more important. But that's a lot of pressure for a segment only accounting for about a fifth of revenue. AI features that reignite iPhone upgrade trends would be the quickest way to faster growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果 AI 未能以投資者希望的方式加速蘋果的收入，那麼 iPhone 製造商的服務業務的持續成功將變得更加重要。但這對一個僅佔收入約五分之一的部門來説壓力很大。能夠重新點燃 iPhone 升級趨勢的 AI 功能將是實現更快增長的最快途徑。</p>
</div><h2>The risk-reward proposition isn't good</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>風險與回報的權衡並不樂觀</h2>
</div><p>While Apple remains financially strong with impressive profit margins and a loyal customer base, it's simply difficult to justify such a significant premium based on current growth trends.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管蘋果在財務上依然強勁，利潤率令人印象深刻，客户基礎忠誠，但基於當前的增長趨勢，很難為如此顯著的溢價辯護。</p>
</div><p>Investors considering Apple stock at current levels should carefully weigh the company's ecosystem advantages, evidenced by the strength in its services segment, against the challenges it faces in its core business. While Apple has consistently surprised skeptics in the past, the combination of slowing growth and a premium valuation creates a challenging risk-reward proposition at current prices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>考慮在當前水平投資蘋果股票的投資者應仔細權衡公司在服務部門的生態系統優勢與其核心業務面臨的挑戰。儘管蘋果過去常常讓懷疑者感到驚訝，但增長放緩與溢價估值的結合在當前價格下形成了一個具有挑戰性的風險與回報權衡。</p>
</div>

Apple Stock Has a Growth Problem. Is It Really Worth Its Premium Valuation?

- 蘋果公司面臨增長放緩，第一財季收入僅增長 4%。  
- iPhone 銷售同比下降 8%，大中華區銷售下降 11%。  
- 高估值與預期增長不符，投資者需謹慎評估風險。  

蘋果股票存在增長問題。它真的值得其高估值嗎？